Well, the Stros (39-42) are halfway through their 2006 season and the first half of the season reminds us again of just how much expectations shape our perception of how likely it is for the club to contend for another playoff run.
Remember this same time in 2004? Pessimism surrounded the club. The hitting was lousy and the pitching staff was reeling from the loss of Wade Miller and the sore elbow of Andy Pettitte. However, after reaching a season-worst 56-60 on Aug. 14, the 2004 Stros won an incredible 36 out of their next 46 games (including a 12 game winning streak and nine out of their last 10 to close out the regular season) to take the National League wildcard playoff spot and come within a game of the 2004 World Series.
And remember this time last season? After starting the 2005 season with an atrocious 15-30 record amidst the worst hitting in the club’s history, that Stros club came to the halfway point of the season on a totally unexpected 29-13 run that had everyone brimming with cautious optimism. Of course, that club went on to post a 45-30 record for the remainder of the season to make the playoffs, won the National League Championship Series over the Cardinals and made it to the club’s first World Series.
What about this year? Well, after getting hopes up by blowing out of the gate with a 19-9 record, the 2006 Stros have gone into a 20-33 tailspin that has exhibited not only chronic inconsistent hitting, but also pitching that has been far below the levels of the 2004 and 2005 Stros. As a result, no one seems to be particularly sanguine at this time about the prospects for the Stros making a third straight playoff run.
But you know what’s interesting? The Stros 39-42 record to date this season is not materially different from the 44-43 record at the All-Star break for the 2004 Stros or the 44-44 All-Star break record of the 2005 club. And just like the Stros clubs of the past two seasons, the 2006 Stros have the ingredients to contend for a playoff spot in the second half of the season if certain players elevate their performance to past levels. See what I mean about expectations?

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Roger Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers in Major League Baseball history, so he rightly gets most of the publicity among Stros pitchers. However, Roy Oswalt is currently the best pitcher on the Stros’ staff, one of the best pitchers in the National League and is well on his way to becoming the best Stros pitcher ever.
As noted in this recent post on Clemens, the statistic “runs saved against average” (“RSAA) is one of the best measures for evaluating a pitcher’s true effectiveness because it is based on the two most important things for a pitcher in winning baseball games — that is, not giving up runs and getting hitters out. RSAA measures the number of runs that a pitcher saves for his team relative to the number of runs that an average pitcher in the league would give up while obtaining an equivalent number of outs for his team. Inasmuch as the hypothetical average pitcher’s RSAA is always zero, a player can have an RSAA that is either a positive number — which indicates he is an above average pitcher (i.e., Clemens and Oswalt) — or an RSAA that is a negative number, which means he is performing below average (i.e., remember Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding?).
Moreover, RSAA is a the best measure for comparing pitchers who played during different eras. Inasmuch as RSAA measures a pitcher’s ability against that of an average pitcher in the pitcher’s league for each particular season, a pitcher’s lifetime RSAA measures how that pitcher performed against the average pitcher of his era. That’s really the best way to compare pitchers from different eras because comparing other pitching statistics — such as earned run average, wins and hitting statistics against — is often skewed between pitchers of hitter-friendly eras (i.e., the era in which Clemens and Oswalt have pitched) versus pitchers of pitcher-friendly eras (i.e., such as the late 1960’s and early 70’s).
In pitching a complete game the other day against the Tigers, Oswalt attained another milestone by reaching 150 RSAA for his career. Roy O is easily the Stros career leader in RSAA:

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