Well, the Stros (39-42) are halfway through their 2006 season and the first half of the season reminds us again of just how much expectations shape our perception of how likely it is for the club to contend for another playoff run.
Remember this same time in 2004? Pessimism surrounded the club. The hitting was lousy and the pitching staff was reeling from the loss of Wade Miller and the sore elbow of Andy Pettitte. However, after reaching a season-worst 56-60 on Aug. 14, the 2004 Stros won an incredible 36 out of their next 46 games (including a 12 game winning streak and nine out of their last 10 to close out the regular season) to take the National League wildcard playoff spot and come within a game of the 2004 World Series.
And remember this time last season? After starting the 2005 season with an atrocious 15-30 record amidst the worst hitting in the club’s history, that Stros club came to the halfway point of the season on a totally unexpected 29-13 run that had everyone brimming with cautious optimism. Of course, that club went on to post a 45-30 record for the remainder of the season to make the playoffs, won the National League Championship Series over the Cardinals and made it to the club’s first World Series.
What about this year? Well, after getting hopes up by blowing out of the gate with a 19-9 record, the 2006 Stros have gone into a 20-33 tailspin that has exhibited not only chronic inconsistent hitting, but also pitching that has been far below the levels of the 2004 and 2005 Stros. As a result, no one seems to be particularly sanguine at this time about the prospects for the Stros making a third straight playoff run.
But you know what’s interesting? The Stros 39-42 record to date this season is not materially different from the 44-43 record at the All-Star break for the 2004 Stros or the 44-44 All-Star break record of the 2005 club. And just like the Stros clubs of the past two seasons, the 2006 Stros have the ingredients to contend for a playoff spot in the second half of the season if certain players elevate their performance to past levels. See what I mean about expectations?

At any rate, this fifth of ten reviews of the Stros season (prior summaries are here) takes us to the halfway point (81 games) of the season (this summary covers 17 games, while each of the past four covered 16). The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:


The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here.
Despite the Stros’ recent road meltdowns against the White Sox and Tigers, the Stros hitters are actually hitting better than either of the past two playoff teams were at this point in the season and are seventh in runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) among the 16 National League clubs. Lance Berkman (31 RCAA/.397 OBA/.609 SLG/1.006 OPS) continues to be one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball, and Chris Burke (8/.370/481/.850) and Mike Lamb (9/.372/.532/.905) have been solid contributers at the plate while working into the lineup as regular players over the past month or so. Although he has a -2 RCAA since May 26th, Morgan Ensberg (18/.388/514/.902) continues to be a far above-average National League hitter and is likely to break out of his slump soon. Even Jason Lane (-3/.336/.399/.735) and Preston Wilson (-3/.324/.429/.753) are showing signs of becoming at least average National League hitters for the season, although Wilson continues to hit into double plays (10) with irritating frequency.
Unfortunately, the rest of the Stros’ hitters are pretty pathetic. Bidg (-4/.327/.413/.740) is showing signs of wearing down earlier than normal in the long season, and Everett (-14/.281/.325/.607) and Taveras (-11/.315/.319/.634) remain train wrecks. Meanwhile, fast-starting Ausmus (-13/.315/,311/.626) has descended to his usual depths of hitting incompetency that have made him one of the worst-hitting regular National League players over the past decade. Consequently, whenever Everett, Ausmus and Taveras are in the lineup, the Stros have four spots in the lineup (including the pitcher) that have far less than an average National League player’s ability to generate runs. That’s not good, so Manager Garner needs to limit as much as possible the games in which those three players are in the lineup together.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff had actually improved and risen to seventh in the National League in runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here), but then the nightmare series against the White Sox and then the Tigers sent the staff’s RSAA spiraling to 15th among the 16 National League clubs. Nevertheless, there are definite signs of hope.
First, Roy O (3.27 ERA/13 RSAA) and Clemens (2.38 ERA/2 RSAA) are studs and likely to remain strong starters throughout the second half of the season. Although Pettitte (5.58 ERA/-15 RSAA), rookie starter Buchholz (5.36 ERA/ -11 RSAA) and Lidge (5.30 ERA/-4 RSAA) have struggled mightily at times this season and are the main reasons for the staff’s high RSAA, each of them has shown improvement in recent appearances (well, alright, except for that little problem Lidge had in Chicago). Rodriguez (4.79 ERA/-5 RSAA) has been a bit shaky of late, but the rest of the Stros pitchers have actually pitched at either an average National League pitcher level or slightly above-average level for the season. And, for good measure, Brandon Backe (2.25 ERA/2 RSAA) is currently on a rehab assignment and his successful return to the rotation would likely be an improvement over either Buchholz or Rodriguez. So, a reasonable scenario does exist for the Stros’ pitching staff to turn things around during the second half of the season.
Finally, the other good news is that the National League is simply not very good this season. The 43-36 Cardinals have lost nine of ten games and are not running away with the National League Central as they did in the past two seasons (even at 39-42, the Stros are only five games out of first in the NL Central). Similarly, the Stros are currently just a few games out of leading the race for the National League wildcard playoff spot. In short, despite the Stros troubles over the past 30% of the season, the club has not played itself out of the playoff hunt by any means.
Thus, if the Stros can continue their hitting level at slightly above-National League average, and improve their pitching to the upper third of the National League (definitely possible based on the past two seasons performance), then the Stros will at least contend for the wildcard playoff spot and could even contend for the NL Central title. On the other hand, if the pitching does not improve significantly during the second half, then the Stros playoff goose is cooked because the club simply just does not have enough hitting to carry a pitching staff operating at anywhere near or below National League-average.
After Sunday’s game against the Rangers (41-38), the Stros return home to play the Cubs (29-51) and Cards (43-36) leading up to the All-Star break. Good pitching traditionally tends to dominate hitters after the All-Star break and during the dog days of summer, so here’s hoping that the Stros’ strong pitching — which carried the club far into the playoffs during the past two seasons — revives and carries the 2006 club to a similar finish.