Update on Roy O

Roy Oswalt25.jpgAmidst the Stros’ free fall over the past month, the worst news to arise to date is All-Star pitcher Roy Oswalt‘s back injury that forced him to miss a start on Sunday afternoon against the Reds. Major League Baseball injury expert Will Carroll passes along the latest information on Oswalt’s back injury, which came on the heels of a pulled hamstring that Oswalt endured in his previous start:

There is no question in my mind that Roy Oswalt has a cascade injury. In the always-great Alyson Footerís article at MLB.com, Oswalt all but says so himself. ìI may have altered my mechanics,î he says, referring to what he did after straining his hamstring. Oswalt is now dealing with mid-back spasms, an unusual location. Elsewhere in the article, we get clues. Oswaltís back only acted up when he threw curves, meaning that his mechanics remained altered into this session. Mid-back spasms usually involve some muscles rather than structural problems, so this isnít as bad as it sounds. The Astros medical staff will have to stop the pain-spasm cycle, the Astros field staff will have to keep Oswalt from altering his mechanics, and Oswalt will have to listen. A decision on the DL wonít be made until mid-week and would follow an as-yet-unscheduled MRI.

The Stros have one of the best medical staffs in Major League Baseball, so Roy O’s injury will be handled conservatively. But make no doubt about it — this Stros club is barely a .500 team with Oswalt; the club is not close to being even a .500 club without him.

Remember those high prices for natural gas?

oreillyconfused4.jpgRemember those high natural gas prices of last year and the corresponding calls for more regulation of the oil and gas industry?
Well, after a hurricane season last year when prices skyrocketed to above $15 per British thermal unit and stored supplies were slashed as multiple storms played havoc with Gulf of Mexico production and storage facilities, U.S. supplies of natural gas are now so plentiful that the natural gas industry is running out of places to store it. Thus, despite the prospect of another active hurricane season, natural gas prices are down over 40% this year to $6.62 per BTU and likely will move even lower.
Rather than governmental intervention, the primary reason for the declining prices is the weather. As a result of a relatively mild winter, lower-than-expected demand for heating resulted in more plentiful supplies of natural gas this spring. Accordingly, over half of the estimated four trillion cubic feet of U.S. underground natural gas-storage capacity is already being used, which means that those facilities could be at near full capacity even before the first hurricane hits the U.S. mainland later this summer.
Meanwhile, Bill O’Reilly and attorneys general from several Midwestern states — who last year condemned the big oil and gas companies and gas traders for manipulating prices and pushing up home-heating bills for all U.S. citizens — have not yet explained how, with all their market power, those avaricious companies and traders could not prevent the current collapse of natural gas prices.

The Ken Lay Narratives

KenLayOn several occasions while covering the Lay-Skilling trial, I noted that the Enron Task Force prosecutors were presenting a fundamentally weak case in an effective manner. Quite a few commenters both here and on other blogs took me to task for that view, some of whom suggested that my defense bias rendered me incapable of appreciating the true strength of the Task Force’s case.

So, it was with a small dose of vindication on Sunday that I read Alexei Barrionuevo and Kurt Eichenwald’s NY Times article on the story behind the Enron Task Force’s preparation and prosecution of the case against former Enron chairman, Ken Lay. According to Barrionuevo and Eichenwald’s piece, Enron Task Force prosecutors such as John Hueston agree with me — their case against Lay was so weak they had serious doubts whether they could even make one.

Barrionuevo and Eichenwald’s article provides an interesting peek into the lengths that federal prosecutors will go to make a case against a person who the prosecutors have already concluded is a crook.

But leave it to Larry Ribstein in this post on the Barrionuevo/Eichenwald article to nail the serious implications of the Task Force’s motives and actions toward Lay:

Many people no doubt will get a warm feeling from the job our government servants have done in finally nailing the evil Lay. But as I said at the beginning, there is an alternative narrative.

The prosecutors were out to get Lay, who had already been convicted by public opinion just for being associated so closely with Enron, which of course journalists, filmmakers and other shapers of public opinion had already elevated into the symbol of whatever it was that went pop at the end of the big boom.

The prosecutors and journalists had a willing audience. Stupid and greedy investors, convinced they knew more than the market did and that gravity was suspended just for them, abetted by credulous analysts who didn’t think they had to ask questions, now needed somebody other than themselves to blame.

The prosecutors looked long and hard and finally found Ben Glisan, whom the jury was primed to believe despite his questionable provenance. There were other potential witnesses with other potential stories, but the government was willing neither to free them from the threat of indictment nor grant them immunity.

Read Professor Ribstein’s entire post.

As Barrionuevo and Eichenwald note in their article, the case against Lay boiled down to the testimony of Ben Glisan and Andy Fastow, both of whom testified that they were telling Lay as early as mid-August 2001 immediately after he replaced Skilling that Enron was in far worse financial shape than the company was letting on to investors.

The Task Force prosecutors molded this testimony into the securities fraud charges against Lay, contending that he continued to urge employees and investors to buy Enron stock even though he supposedly knew better.

Of course, Lay testified that neither Glisan nor Fastow said anything of the kind to him. Indeed, Lay contended that they were advising him of exactly the opposite — that the company’s liquidity was as strong as it ever had been — and he had substantial documentary evidence to back up his version of the events, such as Glisan’s October 8, 2001 presentation to the Enron board.

However, the Task Force iced other Enron executives who would have provided exculpatory testimony for Lay, so Lay was forced to go it alone in defending himself against Glisan and Fastow’s allegations.

Thus, the case against Lay came down to an old-fashioned swearing match — Glisan and Fastow, on one hand, and Lay on the other.

That’s why such a large part of the Task Force’s cross-examination of Lay focused on such things as PhotoFete and Lay’s clumsy but legal use of his line of credit with the company. With Glisan and Fastow’s testimony in hand, the Task Force simply had to cast Lay as a liar to the jury and they would win the swearing match.

Interestingly, Eichenwald’s important book on Enron — Conspiracy of Fools (Broadway 2005) — actually suggests that it is Glisan and Fastow who are lying.

On pp. 540-541 of his book, Eichenwald relates an amusing story about Enron’s chief operating officer, Greg Whalley, meeting with Fastow and Glisan around October 20, 2001 when it was becoming clear that the market was turning on Enron after a series of Wall Street Journal articles had exposed Fastow’s shenanigans with certain special purpose entities.

Whalley called the meeting with the two financial officers so that they could apprise him of Enron’s liquidity position in the face of the quickly-unfolding crisis.

Fastow began the meeting by assuring Whalley that the company was in very good liquidity position because it had $3.8 billion in available lines of credit.

But then, under questioning from Whalley, Fastow and Glisan conceded that the company actually had only $1.5 billion in available liquidity.

As Eichenwald relates, the meeting ended rather abruptly:

What the hell? Whalley stood up, disbelief etched on his face.

“You guys are out of your minds!” he said, turning to head out. “I walked in with $3.8 billion in liquidity, and I’m leaving with $1.5 billion.”

[Whalley] shook his head. “I don’t want to ask you another question. I don’t think we can afford it.”

So, how likely is it that Glisan and Fastow were telling Lay that Enron was a house of cards as early as mid-August when they began a meeting with Enron’s chief operating officer on October 20th by assuring him that the company’s liquidity position was in good shape?

A Quick Enron Reality Check?

As expected, the Conglomerate Enron online symposium last week generated over 15 interesting posts, including ones by the reliably insightful Larry Ribstein (see also here), Ellen Podgor, Don Langevoort, Lisa Fairfax, and Thomas Joo.

However, one of the final posts in the symposium particularly caught my attention. Moderator Gordon Smith passed it along from John Kroger, who served on the Task Force for a year or so in 2002-03, during which time he helped prosecute Arthur Andersen out of business and prepare the odious prosecution that placed four former Merrill Lynch executives in prison for arranging to have Merrill buy an asset from Enron that Enron may have improperly accounted for, although even that has never been proven.

Following his service on the Task Force, Kroger took a job as a law professor in Portland, from where he proceeded to publish a law review article, Enron, Fraud and Securities Reform: An Enron Prosecutor’s Perspective. Kroger’s resume reflects no apparent background in either structured finance or the private finance business sector, but that doesn’t stop him in the article from, among other things, characterizing Enron’s structured finance transactions as wholesale frauds and proposing that such risk-taking should be criminalized.

For a more balanced view from experts in the field of structured finance regarding the economic and financial benefits of such transactions and Enron’s use of them, see Christopher Culp and William Niskanen‘s Corporate Aftershock: The Policy Lessons from Enron and Other Major Corporate Corporations and Culp’s subsequent book, Risk Transfer: Derivatives in Theory and Practice.

With that backdrop, Kroger wrote the following post on the Conglomerate Enron symposium:

“Here’s a Quick Reality Check”

I am shocked at how skeptical most of these blog entries are. Of course, as a former prosecutor in the case, I am certainly biased. That said, here’s a quick reality check. In 2000, 96% of Enron’s reported net income and 105% of its reported funds flow came from accounting manipulation schemes, the vast majority of which clearly violated GAAP. At the same time, Enron managed to keep some $25 billion in company debt off its financial statements, hidden from investors. Lay told his employees to keep buying more Enron stock while he was secretly selling his own. Both men made millions spinning the socks off investors for a company that was, in the end, revealed as an empty shell. The jury heard months of testimony and concluded, quite reasonably, that the defendants knew precisely what was going on. In the United States, we don’t always treat poor criminals and rich criminals alike, but we should. When people commit fraud, they should go to prison.

Using Kroger’s post as a template, my reply is as follows:

I am shocked at how many of the blog entries presume that Lay and Skilling were involved in a massive fraud at Enron. Of course, as a defense attorney in various Enron-related civil actions, I am certainly biased.

That said, here’s a quick reality check.

In 2000, rather than allowing shareholders to suffer loss of value during a difficult post-stock market bubble period, Enron supplemented its net income and reported funds flow through innovative structured finance transactions that effectively hedged the risk of loss in many of its assets for the benefit of investors.

Moreover, when the Enron board induced Lay to return to the Enron CEO position after Skilling’s resignation in August 2001, he put his money where his mouth was — he used the entire board-approved $20 million bonus to invest in more Enron stock.

Indeed, Lay made that bold investment in Enron even though he had already lost an enormous amount of his personal net worth in the first seven months of 2001 due to the decline in Enron’s stock price, losses that he willingly incurred because he insisted that his personal portfolio remain disproportionately invested in Enron stock.

The jury heard months of testimony from primarily cooperating prosecution witnesses who had a substantial incentive to lie by implicating Lay and Skilling in crimes. After the prosecution effectively prevented witnesses with exculpatory testimony for Lay and Skilling from testifying, the jury concluded, quite reasonably, that Lay and Skilling were rich and the company they led went bust, so they must be guilty of some crime.

In the United States, we don’t always treat poor criminals and rich criminals alike, but we should. When business executives are accused of fraud, they should get a fair trial before they are sent to prison for life.