With the League Championship Series matchups now set, it’s time to put the Stros 2006 season to rest. At least the Stros’ late season surge was fun while it lasted, but it ended in the same manner as too many of this club’s games (previous reviews here) — with a whimper in Atlanta as the Stros failed to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons and for the only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. This tenth and final review of the season will provide a report card on the Stros, hopefully without the subjective blather that we endure from much of the mainstream media that covers the club.
The Stros played well down the stretch as they posted an 11-6 record in the final 1/10th of the season (including their magical nine game winning streak), which means that they were a solid 21-12 over the final 20% of the season. However, inasmuch as the Stros were 19-13 during the first 20% of the season, that means that the club was an abysmal 42-55 during the middle 60% of the season. That latter record is reflective of the club’s poor hitting, while the 40-25 record during the first and final 20% segments of the season reflect the club’s strong pitching. The combination of the two means that the Stros are about a National League-average team, which is proved by the club’s 82-80 final record.
The Stros late-season run was fueled by outstanding pitching, which has been the foundation of the club’s success throughout the Biggio-Bagwell era. After a slow start this season, the Stros pitching staff really picked it up over the second half of the season, finishing by saving an outstanding 78 more runs than a National League-average pitching staff would have saved in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). That was the best of any pitching staff in the National League this season.
Nevertheless, as has been the case over the past six seasons, the Stros’ overall hitting declined again this season. The club’s hitters generated a poor 47 runs fewer runs than a National League-average team would have created using the same number of outs (RCAA, explained here), which was only 11th among the 16 National League teams.
Thus, while this season was clearly not disastrous, my main concern is that the club’s fast finish will distract management from recognizing and addressing the festering problem with the club’s hitting that — if not rectified — will prevent the Stros from being a perennial playoff contender during the Berkman-Oswalt era. The initial management move — firing pitching coach Jim Hickey while retaining manager Phil Garner and hitting coach Sean Berry — is not particularly encouraging, although it must be conceded that young, back-end rotation starters Taylor Buchholz and Wandy Rodriguez struggled this season. That probably sealed Hickey’s fate.
But as my grades for the Stros players reflect, the Stros have far bigger issues than their pitching coach. The club’s model of emphasizing pitching remains sound, so the club doesn’t need to become even an above-average National League-hitting team to return to serious playoff contention. In fact, adding merely one above-average hitting corner outfielder may be enough to do the trick so long as the pitching continues to excel. But whatever deals Stros management make, the club clearly does not need to make wholesale changes during the off-season to return to serious playoff contention in the 2007 season. Indeed, the $40 million or so in payroll that will be freed up with the expiration of the Bagwell, Clemens and Pettitte contracts will provide Stros management with some much-needed flexibility in consummating a deal or two.
My report card for the Stros follows the final season statistics below. Pdf’s of the final hitting stats are here and the final pitching stats are here), courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:

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