With the League Championship Series matchups now set, it’s time to put the Stros 2006 season to rest. At least the Stros’ late season surge was fun while it lasted, but it ended in the same manner as too many of this club’s games (previous reviews here) — with a whimper in Atlanta as the Stros failed to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons and for the only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. This tenth and final review of the season will provide a report card on the Stros, hopefully without the subjective blather that we endure from much of the mainstream media that covers the club.
The Stros played well down the stretch as they posted an 11-6 record in the final 1/10th of the season (including their magical nine game winning streak), which means that they were a solid 21-12 over the final 20% of the season. However, inasmuch as the Stros were 19-13 during the first 20% of the season, that means that the club was an abysmal 42-55 during the middle 60% of the season. That latter record is reflective of the club’s poor hitting, while the 40-25 record during the first and final 20% segments of the season reflect the club’s strong pitching. The combination of the two means that the Stros are about a National League-average team, which is proved by the club’s 82-80 final record.
The Stros late-season run was fueled by outstanding pitching, which has been the foundation of the club’s success throughout the Biggio-Bagwell era. After a slow start this season, the Stros pitching staff really picked it up over the second half of the season, finishing by saving an outstanding 78 more runs than a National League-average pitching staff would have saved in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). That was the best of any pitching staff in the National League this season.
Nevertheless, as has been the case over the past six seasons, the Stros’ overall hitting declined again this season. The club’s hitters generated a poor 47 runs fewer runs than a National League-average team would have created using the same number of outs (RCAA, explained here), which was only 11th among the 16 National League teams.
Thus, while this season was clearly not disastrous, my main concern is that the club’s fast finish will distract management from recognizing and addressing the festering problem with the club’s hitting that — if not rectified — will prevent the Stros from being a perennial playoff contender during the Berkman-Oswalt era. The initial management move — firing pitching coach Jim Hickey while retaining manager Phil Garner and hitting coach Sean Berry — is not particularly encouraging, although it must be conceded that young, back-end rotation starters Taylor Buchholz and Wandy Rodriguez struggled this season. That probably sealed Hickey’s fate.
But as my grades for the Stros players reflect, the Stros have far bigger issues than their pitching coach. The club’s model of emphasizing pitching remains sound, so the club doesn’t need to become even an above-average National League-hitting team to return to serious playoff contention. In fact, adding merely one above-average hitting corner outfielder may be enough to do the trick so long as the pitching continues to excel. But whatever deals Stros management make, the club clearly does not need to make wholesale changes during the off-season to return to serious playoff contention in the 2007 season. Indeed, the $40 million or so in payroll that will be freed up with the expiration of the Bagwell, Clemens and Pettitte contracts will provide Stros management with some much-needed flexibility in consummating a deal or two.
My report card for the Stros follows the final season statistics below. Pdf’s of the final hitting stats are here and the final pitching stats are here), courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:

Now for the grades. First, the A-team:
Lance Berkman: A+ The Big Puma, Fat Elvis, or whatever you want to call him, Berkman has developed into one of the best sluggers in Major League Baseball. His 64 RCAA was third in the National League behind only Philly’s Ryan Howard (82 RCAA) and the Cards’ Albert Pujols (76 RCAA), and he was also was third home runs with 45, third in on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS (on-base average + slugging percentage). As noted earlier here, he overtook Biggio as the second-best hitter in the Stros franchise history and is the only current player who has a chance of overtaking Bagwell as the best hitter in Stros history. His 2006 season was the 8th best season by any Stros player, and he now has three of the top Stros top 10 seasons:

Berkman is now solidly the second-best hitter behind Jeff Bagwell in Stros history:

Berkman’s OPS (on-base average + slugging percentage) this season is fourth best in Stros history:

Berkman’s 136 RBI’s this season set a new Stros record:

Berkman’s 45 home runs this season are the second-best in Stros history:

Berkman’s 45 home runs also tied for the best ever in a season by a switch-hitter in National League history:

In addition to his superlative hitting, Berkman provided flexibility for the team by playing multiple positions and playing each one of them reasonably well. He remains an adventure every once and awhile on the basepaths, but that’s small potatoes in comparison to everything else that he brings to the table. Berkman — along with Roy O — is now clearly the leader of the Stros and a bonafide Hall-of-Fame candidate if he can maintain his current level of productivity over the next seven seasons or so.
Roy Oswalt: A+ Already the best pitcher in Stros history, Roy O added to his legacy with another excellent season, finishing with an outstanding 2.98 ERA and a superlative 39 RSAA, good for second in the National League. His season was a personal best and tied for sixth best in Stros history:

Oswalt is already far and away the best pitcher in Stros history:

The club awarded Oswalt with the most lucrative contract in franchise history. Barring injury, Roy O is another legitimate, home-grown Hall-of-Fame candidate for the Stros franchise.
Roger Clemens: A+ What more can be said about the Rocket? He is legitimately one of the three best pitchers ever to play the game and continues to increase his career (since 1900) RSAA record. Even if the 19th century is included, only Cy Young saved more runs than Clemens over his career:

Clemens had a 29 RSAA and a 2.30 ERA in 2006 in less than half the season, which is nevertheless the 13th best season in Stros history. If he were to offer to play 40% of the season next year, the Stros would be foolish not to accomodate him. Truly, Clemens is one for the ages.
Luke Scott: A The 28 year-old journeyman minor leaguer and throw-in from Cleveland in the Jeroime Robertson trade a couple of seasons ago, Scott was one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball over the final 65 games of the season as he accumulated a 29 RCAA, 10 taters, a .426 on-base average, a .621 slugging percentage and an 1.047 OPS. His performance probably ensures him a starting berth in left field for next season, but the question remains whether Scott is simply a late-bloomer or a career AAAA-hitter who had the one-time hitting streak of his life during the final 65 games of the 2006 season.

Next are the B grades:
Dan Wheeler: B+ For the third straight season, Wheeler (2.52 ERA/16 RSAA) was a quiet and efficient reliever for the Stros and took over the closer role late in the season. Few people realize it, but Wheeler’s 35 RSAA over the past three seasons is better than Lidge’s 34 RSAA. Manager Garner’s stubborn slowness in replacing Lidge with Wheeler as the club’s closer could well have cost the Stros more than the 1.5 games that they finished behind the Cards in the NL Central standings.
Mike Lamb: B- Lamb rebounded from a subpar 2005 season with one of his most productive seasons (5 RCAA/.361 OBA/.475 SLG/.836 OPS) while contributing at several different positions. He is a handy player to have around.

As you would expect from an average team, the C grade group is larger than the above-average group:
Chris Burke: C+ Burke was average offensively (0 RCAA/.347 OBA/.418 SLG/.765 OPS), but gets a plus score because of his ability to contribute defensively at multiple positions. His development continues to be stunted by the Stros’ continued reliance on the declining Biggio, one of the substantial costs of that indulgence.
Chad Qualls C+ Qualls’ season (3.76 ERA/8 RSAA) mirrored that of the pitching staff overall — started slow over the first half of the season, but was increasingly effective as the season wore on. Likely to be Wheeler’s setup man next season.
Trever Miller C+ Miller has a career 4.41 ERA. Somehow, he patched together a 3.02 ERA/9 RSAA season as the Stros lefthanded specialist out of the bullpen. Just don’t count on it happening again.
Russ Springer C+ Career 4.94 ERA reliever has a 3.47 ERA/7 RSAA season. See Miller analysis above.
Morgan Ensberg C Ensberg had a great 2005 season, then got hurt and faded at the end of the season. He started off like a house afire this season (20 RSAA/.403 OBA/.627 SLG/1.030 OPS as of May 26), then hurt his shoulder and was slightly below-average over the rest of the season (16/.396/.463/.859). Despite that, he was still the third most-productive hitter on the Stros after Berkman and Scott. My sense is that Ensberg just needs to be left alone at third base and that he has been mishandled by Garner and, before him, even more so by Jimy Williams. Inasmuch as the Stros have far larger problems than Ensberg, here’s hoping that he has an injury-free 2007 season.
Andy Pettitte: C After having the best season of his career in 2005, Pettitte had a miserable first 2/3rd’s of the season before pulling it together in the final two months to salvage an average season (4.20 ERA/9 RSAA). All in all, the Stros did not get their money’s worth from Pettitte in regard to the high-priced three-year contract the club gave him. However, the deal was worth it if it helped draw Clemens into the fold. Pettitte’s left elbow is chronically sore these days, so there’s no telling whether he’ll even play next season. If he does, then it will be for much less than the $16.5 million he received for this past season.
Fernando Nieve: C One of the Stros contingent of promising young pitchers, Nieve (4.20 ERA/4 RSAA) began the season as a starter, but moved to the bullpen in the middle of the season and was reasonably effective. A decent bet to assume Qualls’ spot as the setup man for Qualls and Wheeler next season.
Aubrey Huff: C Huff (O RSAA/.341 OBA/.478 SLG/.819 OPS) was a decent mid-season acquisition, but really proved to be basically Mike Lamb with a tad more power but less defensive acumen (which is not good because Lamb is no magician with the glove). The Stros gave up a promising minor league pitcher (Mitch Talbot) and a speculative shortstop prospect (Ben Zobrist) to get Huff, so the club probably came out ahead on the trade. Because Lamb already provides basically what Huff brings to the table, my sense is that the free agent Huff is a longshot to stay with the Stros.
Jason Hirsh, Matt Albers and Chris Sampson: C- None of these rookie pitchers set the league on fire, but Hirsh (6.04 ERA/-7 RSAA) and Albers (6.00 ERA/-4 RSAA) are young and showed flashes of MLB-starter ability, and the older Sampson (2.12 ERA/9 RSAA) looks as if he could be effective as a long reliever and spot starter.
Finally, the below-average, of which there are quite a few:
Willy Taveras: D But for his continued improvement as a defensive player and his speed, Taveras’ (-17 RCAA/.333 OBA/.338 SLG/.671 OPS) grade would be an F. Taveras should be trade bait this off-season for an MLB team that is willing to sacrifice offense for defense in centerfield. Taveras is not a good fit for the hitting-deprived Stros.
Adam Everett: D Although one of the best defensive shortstops in Major League Baseball, Everett’s offensive limitations (-31 RSAA/.290 OBA/.352 SLG/.642 OPS) render him a below-average National League player. Nevertheless, he is less expendable than Taveras because the Stros do not have any replacement for him within the organization at this time.
Jason Lane: D Lane was a big disappointment for the Stros this season. After a promising 2005 season as a first-time starter, Lane regressed this season (-12 RSAA/.318 OBA/.392 SLG/.710 OPS). Even as bad as Lane was, what’s frightening is that the Stros might just have won the NL Central had Garner given a substantial number of Taveras and Preston Wilson‘s at-bats to Lane.
Eric Bruntlett: D Bruntlett (-3 RCAA/.351 OBA/.345 SLG/.696 OPS) fulfilled his role of being a useful utilityman who can play most any position. But a .345 slugging percentage?
Orlando Palmeiro: D- As with Pettitte, Palmeiro (-8 RSAA/.294 OBA/.319 SLG/ .613 OPS) was poor for most of the season before catching fire down the stretch and contributing to the Stros’ late season surge. But a .613 OPS is not going to cut it as a club’s prime pinch-hitter.
Manager Phil Garner: D- Baseball managers have far less of an effect on games than either football or basketball coaches. However, a manager can make a difference in a close race, and Garner most certainly cost the Stros more than the 1.5 games that the club finished behind the Cardinals for the NL Central title. From his stubborn insistence on keeping the ineffective Lidge in the closer role far too long, to his cluelessness in giving Biggio, Taveras, Preston Wilson and Ausmus extra at-bats when better alternatives existed, to stupid moves such as this, Garner’s limitations as a manager were exposed this season. The past two seasons may have given Garner a pass for this season, but his poor performance this season certainly did not deserve the extension of his contract that Stros management gave him after the season. That Stros management rewards such a dubious performance is somewhat worrisome.
Craig Biggio: F The bottom fell out this season for the 40 year-old Stros icon (-20 RCAA/.306 OBA/.422 SLG/.728 OPS). In addition to having by far his worst season at the plate, Bidg has become a severe defensive liability to boot. Bidg will require between 350-400 plate appearances next season to generate the 70 hits he needs to reach 3,000. In the meantime, Burke’s development will continue to be stunted, as was Lane’s before him during the Biggio outfield experiment. Owner Drayton McLane will indulge Bidg’s quest for 3,000 hits by bringing him back next season, but it would be better for the Stros if Bidg were to call it a career and retire. Electing to help his team by quitting just short of reaching 3,000 hits won’t affect his certain Hall-of-Fame credentials one bit.
Brad Lidge: F Lidge (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA) was one of the worst pitchers on the Stros pitching staff this season. It’s not difficult to understand why — he simply has lost his ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters are laying off Lidge’s slider and laying into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate well. Ever since his breakout performance in 2004 (26 RSAA), Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into the 2007 season. Although his trade value has plummeted over the past year, the Stros should definitely listen to reasonable offers for Lidge. It is looking less likely with each passing season that he will ever regain his dominating 2004 level of performance.
Taylor Buchholz: F Another big disappointment, Buchholz (5.89 ERA/-17 RSAA) had a couple of good outings early in the season, wilted as the season wore on and then regressed even further when he was demoted to AAA Round Rock. The kid has good stuff, but he still needs to figure out how to pitch. Probably begins next season behind Hirsh and Albers.
Wandy Rodriguez F One of the worst Major League starters over the past two seasons, it will not be a good sign for 2007 if Rodriguez (5.64 ERA/-16 RSAA) is on the Stros’ staff.
Brad Ausmus: F Ausmus (-38 RCAA/.308 OBA/.285 SLG/.593 OPS) took his level of poor play to new depths during the 2006 season as he had the worst season of hitting in Stros history:

Ausmus is far and away the worst hitter in Stros history:

Given that Ausmus is not even a particularly good defensive player anymore (his arm is no longer strong enough to throw out basestealers consistently), there is no justification for Ausmus remaining a regular Major League player. The only reason he received an F rather than an F- is that he blocks pitches well.
Brandon Backe: Incomplete. Here’s hoping that the quintessential battler is able to overcome Tommy John surgery and return to the Stros rotation. See you in 2008, Brandon!
So, that’s it for the 2006 season. Certainly a disappointment after the successful playoff runs of the past two seasons, but there is hope on the horizon — this is not a club that needs radical changes to return to serious playoff contender status. Although GM Purpura’s moves this past off-season (remember Preston Wilson?) were uninspiring, missing the playoffs this season and more payroll flexibility should motivate him to make the changes during this off-season that are necessary to reverse the Stros’ downward hitting trend. Stay tuned, because my sense is that this off-season is going to be quite interesting.