I can easily do without the Kiss Cam, which is one of the ubiquitous fan participation entertainment segments that most Major League Baseball ballparks run between innings these days. Former President and Mrs. Bush good-naturedly participate whenever they attend Stros games, which always raises a cheer from the crowd. But as much as I generally dislike the Kiss Cam, the one below that ran in Phoenix during the recent Diamondbacks-Cubs National League Divisional Series is a clever reminder of a couple of the mythical reasons for the Cubs’ failure to win the World Series since 1908:
Monthly Archives: October 2007
Did Joe Pa go “Gundy”?
What is in the water that big-time college football coaches are drinking this season?
First, Oklahoma State head football coach Mike Gundy went famously batshit over a newspaper article that was critical of one of his team’s professional — er. I mean, “amateur” — players.
And now Jay Christensen reports that Penn State head coach Joe Paterno is the primary suspect in a road rage incident.
It almost makes you wonder: “What would Woody Hayes do?”
Update: Paterno provides his side of the story.
Michael Milken on the housing markets
You can usually count on Michael Milken making an interesting observation or two whenever interviewed about markets, particualarly the housing market:
“The idea that any loan against real estate is a good loan has never been a rational thought.”
Thinking about improving the NBA
With the opening of the NBA pre-season tonight (“yawn”), Clear Thinkers favorite Bill James (previous posts here) provides this interesting article on how the study of professional leagues has lagged behind the study of professional teams and how the lack of competitive balance may ultimately undermine a league such as the NBA. David Berri provides this blog post analyzing James’ article in which he suggests that the NBA’s lack of competitive balance is not really that much of a problem after all. Skip Sauer makes the same point here.
At any rate, regardless of the competitive balance issue, here are my suggestions for improving the NBA, which is often unwatchable before the playoffs:
1. Limit the regular season to 50 games and begin play during or right after the Thanksgiving holiday. Who watches basketball before then anyway?
2. Use the regular season to seed the playoffs and to determine home court advantage.
3. All teams make the initial round of the playoffs and all playoff series are best of seven games except for the first round, which would be the best of nine.
Jamie Olis Seeks Another Chance
A little over a month after I started this blog back in early 2004, former Dynegy executive Jamie Olis was sentenced to over 24 years in prison for allegedly cooking Dynegy’s books.
That shocking sentence aroused my interest in the Olis case, so I have followed Olis’ ordeal closely for going on four years.
The tremors from the Olis sentence have been enormous, not the least of which was its impact on various defendants who entered into plea bargains in the Enron-related criminal cases rather than risk a similar quasi-life sentence.
Despite my interest in the Olis case, I have been somewhat frustrated over the years by the lack of available public information regarding the evidence of Olis’ alleged criminal acts. Olis had already been convicted before I even found out about his case, so I didn’t follow his trial and don’t know much about what was presented during it.
However, I do know that the structured finance transaction that was the basis of the charges against Olis — nicknamed “Project Alpha” — was not a particularly unusual transaction for a large company such as Dynegy at the time. I also knew that the transaction had been approved by dozens of accountants and lawyers both inside and outside of Dynegy.
From my experience in defending several former Enron executives, I also knew that government prosecutors neither understood nor cared much to understand the complex structured finance transactions in which companies such as Enron and Dynegy commonly engaged.
Rather, prosecutors knew that obtaining a conviction against business executives in the aftermath of Enron was like shooting fish in a barrel, so it became common for them to criminalize legitimate business transactions where it was far from clear that anything was wrong with the transaction in the first place.
To the extent such transactions should have been subject to litigation at all, they should have been subject solely to civil litigation where the liability for the alleged wrongdoing could be allocated fairly among the dozens of individuals or companies commonly involved in approving such transactions.
So it was with great interest that I read a legal memorandum in support of a motion to set aside Olis’ conviction that a new group of lawyers (including, interestingly, Houston plaintiffs’ lawyer, John O’Quinn) representing Olis filed late last week with U.S. District Judge Sim Lake (Chronicle business columnist Loren Steffy published a copy of the memorandum in a blog post over the weekend and Chronicle legal columnist Mary Flood followed up with a Monday blog post here).
The memorandum is the first document that has been filed in the Olis case that lucidly explains how — as I’ve long suspected — it was far from clear that there was anything wrong with Project Alpha and even farther from clear that Olis had anything to do with any alleged criminal conduct.
Knowing this, the prosecution veered away from its original charges against Olis and ultimately prosecuted him at trial over a “hide the real deal” theory that was entirely different from the one contained in the Olis indictment.
As it turns out, Olis didn’t really hide anything and there is substantial evidence to support his disclosures. However, the Olis’ defense at trial was limited when Dynegy quit funding it as a result of the government’s threat “to go Arthur Andersen” on the company.
Thus, Olis’ defense counsel was overwhelmed and did not find the exculpatory evidence, which the Olis team did not discover until Olis’ lawyer sued Dynegy and recovered a substantial money judgment for failing to fulfill its obligation to fund the Olis criminal defense. The ordeal that Olis and his family have suffered over the past four years is the result of this travesty.
Credit Steffy for getting it right in his blog post calling for Olis’ release from prison (related column here).
However, Steffy’s call for justice in the Olis case is ironic in that he bears a substantial portion of the responsibility for flaming the poisonous anti-business climate in Houston that led to brutal injustices such as the Olis case in the first place.
Let’s remember that the next time someone starts inciting an angry mob.
Kolata on Good Calories, Bad Calories
NY Times nutrition columnist Gina Kolata (previous posts here) reviews Gary Taubes’ new book, Good Calories, Bad Calories: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Diet, Weight Control and Disease (Knopf September, 2007), which was previewed earlier here. Kolata observes:
His thesis, first introduced in a much-debated article in The New York Times Magazine in 2002 challenging the low-fat diet orthodoxy, is that nutrition and public health research and policy have been driven by poor science and a sort of pigheaded insistence on failed hypotheses. As a result, people are confused and misinformed about the relationship between what they eat and their risk of growing fat. He expands that thesis in the new book, arguing that the same confused reasoning and poor science has led to misconceptions about the relation between diet and heart disease, high blood pressure, cancer, dementia, diabetes and, again, obesity. When it comes to determining the ideal diet, he says, we have to ìconfront the strong possibility that much of what weíve come to believe is wrong.î [. . .]
Taubes convincingly shows that much of what is believed about nutrition and health is based on the flimsiest science. To cite one minor example, thereís the notion that a tiny bit of extra food, 50 or 100 calories a day ó a few bites of a hamburger, say ó can gradually make you fat, and that eating a tiny bit less each day, or doing something as simple as walking a mile, can make the weight slowly disappear. This idea is based on a hypothesis put forth in a single scientific paper, published in 2003. And even then it was qualified, Taubes reports, by the statement that it was ìtheoretical and involves several assumptionsî and that it ìremains to be empirically tested.î Nonetheless, it has now become the basis for an official federal recommendation for obesity prevention.
But the problem with a book like this one, which goes on and on in great detail about experiments new and old in areas ranging from heart disease to cancer to diabetes, is that it can be hard to know what has been left out. [. . .[
. . . I kept wondering how he would deal with an obvious question. If low-carbohydrate diets are so wonderful, why is anyone fat? Most people who struggle with their weight have tried these diets and nearly all have regained everything they lost, as they do with other diets. What is the problem?
On Page 446, he finally tells us. Carbohydrates, he says, are addictive, and weíve all gotten hooked. Those who try to break the habit start to crave them, just as an alcoholic craves a drink or a smoker craves a cigarette. But, he adds, if they are addictive, that ìimplies that the addiction can be overcome with sufficient time, effort and motivation.î
Iím sorry, but Iím not convinced.
John Tierney comments, too.
An interesting variation on the Nigerian email scam
I’ve had my email address for a long time, so I get a receive a lot of spam, which I ignore.
However, I thought I’d already seen every possible variation of the Nigeriam email scam imaginable, but I have to admit the one below that I received a few days ago is more imaginative than most:
From: rebzxxxxxxxxxxxx@peoplepc.com
Luciano Pavarotti (Next Of Kin)
Dear Sir,
My writing to you should be surprising but itís not a mistake because I believe that I could confide in you on this business deal which would be highly beneficial to both of us only that you should promise me that you would not disappoint me at the conclusion of this deal. The main reason why I am contacting you today is to seek your assistance but firstly let me introduce myself before proceeding to the purpose of this letter.
I am Graham Robson Wallace from London in the United Kingdom and I worked as a personal assistant and attorney to one Luciano Pavarotti who died of pancreatic cancer on the September 06, 2007. I was so close to him that on the 27th of June 2005, before his untimely death, he deposited the sum of Thirty-Seven Million Dollars (US$37M) in the custody of a Security Company in London and Holland and this deposit was made known to me alone. The problem now is that these Security Company has written to me few days ago requesting that I provide the beneficiary and next of kin to the deposited fund hence the real depositor is dead.
I would have claimed the money but the company already knows me as the late Luciano Pavarotti’s attorney and personal assistant. So that is why I am contacting you just to present you as the bonafide beneficiary and next of kin to the said fund and I would provide all necessary documents to back up the claim but you must promise me that you wonít disappear into tin air by the time the fund is remitted into you account and also bare in mind that you would be entitled to 35% of the said fund, though the percentage sharing is negotiable.
Please signify your interest by providing me the following: This is to enable me commence immediate preparation of all legal document that will back up our claim.
1. Full Name :
2. Your Telephone Number and Fax Number
3. Your Contact Address.
Your urgent response will be highly appreciated.
Best regards,
Mr. Graham R. Wallace
Based on this earlier post about the late Pavarotti, it doesn’t sound as if he had $37 million laying around to give to Mr. Wallace. ;^)
2007 Weekly local football review
(AP photo/Mike Stone)
Oklahoma 28 Texas Longhorns 21
In an entertaining revival of the Red River Rivalry (previous weekly summaries here), the Sooners (5-1) edged the Longhorns (4-2) by taking advantage of two 2nd half turnovers by Texas RB Jamaal Charles. One of Charles’ two turnovers was technically an interception, but he allowed the ball to bounce off his hands, so he should have had it. My sense is that Horns head coach Mack Brown should be about at the end of his rope with the turnover-prone Charles, who was clearly the difference between these closely-matched teams. The Horns go on the road next weekend to play Iowa State (1-5), which is coached by former Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik.
Texans’ (3-2) kicker Kris Brown’s career day (five FG’s of 54, 43, 54, 20 and the game winner of 57) pulls out the win over Miami (0-5), which may be the NFL’s worst team. Not much to say after the Texans struggle to secure a victory at home over a winless team that was using a backup quarterback. The Texans take their non-existent running game on the road next weekend at division rival Jacksonville (3-1).
Texas Aggies 24 Oklahoma State 23
Coach Fran’s job was hanging by a thread from the top deck of Kyle Field in this one as the listless Aggies (5-1) trailed the Cowboys (3-3) 17-0 at halftime. But 275 lbs RB Jorvorskie Lane bulled in for a couple of TD’s, threw a 50 yard pass to set up another and caught a TD pass to bring the Aggies back in the second half. Despite the thrilling win, I see little that makes me believe that the Aggies will be able to slow down Texas Tech’s (5-1) high-powered offense next Saturday in Lubbock. Tech’s defense is in disarray, though, so who knows? The game at Tech begins a brutal stretch for the Ags in whcih they will play Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Missouri on the road as Coach Fran’s job hangs in the balance.
The Coogs (2-3) looked dead in the water after the 1st quarter in this one, but then dominated Alabama over the final three quarters and were within a final pass play into the end zone of pulling the major upset over the Crimson Tide (4-2). The Cougars now must regroup after two straight close losses before taking on crosstown rival and well-rested Rice (1-4) at Robertson Stadium next Saturday.
With just over 12 minutes left in the game, the Owls (1-4) were driving for another score while cruising with a surprising 31-7 lead over the Eagles (2-3). But then, the Owls missed a chip shot FG and less than ten minutes later, they had to stop a two-point conversion to salvage the win. The Owls take on Houston (2-3) Saturday at Robertson Stadium in their annual crosstown rivalry.
Stros 2007 Review, Part Ten: Season Recap and Report Card
It’s been a week now since the Craig Biggio Farewell Tour drew to a close during the final eighth of the Stros’ disappointing 2007 season. With the end of the season, the tremendously successful Biggio-Bagwell era in the history of the Stros has officially ended. Accordingly, it’s a good time to step back and assess where the Stros are and where they are going.
The final eighth of the season reflected the modest improvement in the play of the club over the final third or so of the season. The Stros (73-89) had an 11-10 record over their final 21 games to finish with only their second losing season during the Biggio-Bagwell era and since Drayton McLane acquired the club in 1993. They continued their season trend of being a National League-average hitting team with a far below National League-average pitching staff. The Stros hitters finished the season generating a precisely National League-average number of runs, (RCAA, explained here), which was tied for 8th among the 16 National League teams. On the other hand, the pitching staff gave up an atrocious 79 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have given up in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here), which was 15th and better only than the Pirates’ sorry staff among National League teams.
The club’s record during each of this season’s eight segments are below with a brief description of the segment (the first and final segments each covered 21 games due to the MLB 162-game schedule):
Season Preview – A downturn looks likely.
1st: 9-12 – Stros lose 5 of first 6, win 8 of next 9, then lose next 6.
2nd: 11-9 – Rookie sensation Hunter Pence bursts on the scene.
3rd: 6-14 – Oh my. Stros lose 10 straight while being outscored 72-20.
4th: 8-12 – Poor pitching becomes the norm as Bidg gets his 3,000th.
5th: 10-10 – It’s time to preserve and develop assets for the future.
6th: 10-10 – Treading water.
7th: 8-12 – The future doesn’t look as bad as this season.
8th: 11-10 – As the Biggio-Bagwell era ends, the club prepares for the future.
The downturn in the Stros’ pitching this season was a bitter disappointment for McLane, who ended up cleaning house as a result of that downturn and the gradual deterioration of the Stros farm system over the past 10 years. As the chart below reflects, a club can generally compete with above-average pitching and below-average hitting, but the opposite is generally not the case:

Despite the bottoming out of the Stros this season, I have been surprised of the widespread criticism of McLane’s stewardship of the club. He has been the best owner that the Stros have ever had and the club has been one of the most consistently above-average teams in Major League Baseball during his 14 year ownership tenure. Although he bears a part of the responsibility for the deterioration of the farm system over the past 10 years, McLane wasn’t the one selecting the players. After logically promoting from within at the end of the successful tenure of former general manager Gerry Hunsicker, McLane quite reasonably decided to clean house and bring in a new GM from outside the organization when it became clear during this season that the club had bottomed out, the Jason Jennings trade had been mishandled, and the 2007 draft was pretty much an unmitigated disaster.
As for McLane’s hiring of former Phillies GM Ed Wade as the new Stros GM, my sense is that it was a reasonable move. Wade is about the same age as Hunsicker and has basically the same experience in management of an MLB club as the former Stros GM. Wade’s track record with the Phillies was that he drafted reasonably well, but didn’t trade as well as he drafted young players. He developed a solid nucleus at Philadelphia that has become the best offensive team in the National League this past season (139 RCAA!), but he generally struggled to add the necessary supporting pieces – particularly on the pitching staff – to put the Phillies over the hump in the NL East against both the Braves and the Mets. Ironically, one of Wade’s first tasks with the Stros (in addition to overhauling the scouting system) will be to do what he struggled to accomplish with the Phillies – patch up the Stros’ broken-down pitching staff.
As noted earlier here, the Stros are not as far away from returning to contention in the NL Central as their record this season indicates. As I recommended at mid-season, Stros management used the second half of the season to preserve and develop the club’s assets. A nucleus of above-average hitters finally exists that has the potential next season to generate the first above National League-average hitting club since the 2004 team. The club appears to have a reasonably solid group of veteran and young pitchers to compete for the no. 3 through 5 spots in the rotation behind the club’s ace, Roy Oswalt. As was the case before the 2007 season, the Stros primary need for the 2008 season is to come up with at least one and preferably two veterans to compete for the no. 2 spot in the pitching rotation. Inasmuch as the Cubs won the NL Central with a pitching-dominant 60 net RCAA/RSAA score (118 RSAA/-58 RCAA), the fastest way for the Stros (-79 net RCAA/RSSA score) can begin making up that 139 run deficit is to shore up the club’s pitching staff.
The following is my report card for each of the Stros this season, which you may want to compare with the report card from last season. Full season statistics follow the report card and the Stros 40-man roster is here with a hyperlink to each player’s statistics and other information:
More on the Kent case
Chronicle reporters Lise Olsen and Harvey Rice follow up on their previous coverage of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals reprimand of U.S. District Judge Sam Kent with this Sunday Chronicle article, which includes the following tidbits:
The episodes of alleged abuse began a decade ago and involved at least three employees, according to interviews with two women and with attorney Rusty Hardin, who represents the third.
In the most recent incident, the judge was accused of inappropriately touching a female case manager in his chambers in March. [. . .]
As the only federal district judge in Galveston, Kent is the ranking federal official in a small fiefdom. The power of his lifetime appointment is reflected by the fear of attorneys and former court employees, who generally declined comment.
The Volokh Conspiracy’s Ilya Somin, who once clerked at the Fifth Circuit and has been following the Kent matter closely, has some interesting observations about the latest Chronicle article.
The Galveston Daily News also provides this special section on the Kent matter, and the Wikipedia site on Judge Kent has also become a good source of information.