It’s been a week now since the Craig Biggio Farewell Tour drew to a close during the final eighth of the Stros’ disappointing 2007 season. With the end of the season, the tremendously successful Biggio-Bagwell era in the history of the Stros has officially ended. Accordingly, it’s a good time to step back and assess where the Stros are and where they are going.
The final eighth of the season reflected the modest improvement in the play of the club over the final third or so of the season. The Stros (73-89) had an 11-10 record over their final 21 games to finish with only their second losing season during the Biggio-Bagwell era and since Drayton McLane acquired the club in 1993. They continued their season trend of being a National League-average hitting team with a far below National League-average pitching staff. The Stros hitters finished the season generating a precisely National League-average number of runs, (RCAA, explained here), which was tied for 8th among the 16 National League teams. On the other hand, the pitching staff gave up an atrocious 79 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have given up in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here), which was 15th and better only than the Pirates’ sorry staff among National League teams.
The club’s record during each of this season’s eight segments are below with a brief description of the segment (the first and final segments each covered 21 games due to the MLB 162-game schedule):
Season Preview – A downturn looks likely.
1st: 9-12 – Stros lose 5 of first 6, win 8 of next 9, then lose next 6.
2nd: 11-9 – Rookie sensation Hunter Pence bursts on the scene.
3rd: 6-14 – Oh my. Stros lose 10 straight while being outscored 72-20.
4th: 8-12 – Poor pitching becomes the norm as Bidg gets his 3,000th.
5th: 10-10 – It’s time to preserve and develop assets for the future.
6th: 10-10 – Treading water.
7th: 8-12 – The future doesn’t look as bad as this season.
8th: 11-10 – As the Biggio-Bagwell era ends, the club prepares for the future.
The downturn in the Stros’ pitching this season was a bitter disappointment for McLane, who ended up cleaning house as a result of that downturn and the gradual deterioration of the Stros farm system over the past 10 years. As the chart below reflects, a club can generally compete with above-average pitching and below-average hitting, but the opposite is generally not the case:

Despite the bottoming out of the Stros this season, I have been surprised of the widespread criticism of McLane’s stewardship of the club. He has been the best owner that the Stros have ever had and the club has been one of the most consistently above-average teams in Major League Baseball during his 14 year ownership tenure. Although he bears a part of the responsibility for the deterioration of the farm system over the past 10 years, McLane wasn’t the one selecting the players. After logically promoting from within at the end of the successful tenure of former general manager Gerry Hunsicker, McLane quite reasonably decided to clean house and bring in a new GM from outside the organization when it became clear during this season that the club had bottomed out, the Jason Jennings trade had been mishandled, and the 2007 draft was pretty much an unmitigated disaster.
As for McLane’s hiring of former Phillies GM Ed Wade as the new Stros GM, my sense is that it was a reasonable move. Wade is about the same age as Hunsicker and has basically the same experience in management of an MLB club as the former Stros GM. Wade’s track record with the Phillies was that he drafted reasonably well, but didn’t trade as well as he drafted young players. He developed a solid nucleus at Philadelphia that has become the best offensive team in the National League this past season (139 RCAA!), but he generally struggled to add the necessary supporting pieces – particularly on the pitching staff – to put the Phillies over the hump in the NL East against both the Braves and the Mets. Ironically, one of Wade’s first tasks with the Stros (in addition to overhauling the scouting system) will be to do what he struggled to accomplish with the Phillies – patch up the Stros’ broken-down pitching staff.
As noted earlier here, the Stros are not as far away from returning to contention in the NL Central as their record this season indicates. As I recommended at mid-season, Stros management used the second half of the season to preserve and develop the club’s assets. A nucleus of above-average hitters finally exists that has the potential next season to generate the first above National League-average hitting club since the 2004 team. The club appears to have a reasonably solid group of veteran and young pitchers to compete for the no. 3 through 5 spots in the rotation behind the club’s ace, Roy Oswalt. As was the case before the 2007 season, the Stros primary need for the 2008 season is to come up with at least one and preferably two veterans to compete for the no. 2 spot in the pitching rotation. Inasmuch as the Cubs won the NL Central with a pitching-dominant 60 net RCAA/RSAA score (118 RSAA/-58 RCAA), the fastest way for the Stros (-79 net RCAA/RSSA score) can begin making up that 139 run deficit is to shore up the club’s pitching staff.
The following is my report card for each of the Stros this season, which you may want to compare with the report card from last season. Full season statistics follow the report card and the Stros 40-man roster is here with a hyperlink to each player’s statistics and other information:

The AÔøΩs
Hunter Pence: A. The irrepressible outfielder was the most pleasant surprise of the season. His hitting statistics were among the best of any rookie (108 games/24 RCAA/.360 OBA/.899 OPS/17 HR/11-16 SB) in Stros history and are quite comparable to Lance Berkman’s rookie season (114/21/.388/.561/.949/21 HR). Pence’s OPS was the best on the club and he played reasonably well defensively in both CF and RF. I’d like to see him be more patient at the plate (only 26 walks in 484 plate appearances), but Pence nevertheless has the potential to be a fixture in the Stros outfield for the next decade.
Roy Oswalt: A-. Roy O had a below-average season for him (24 RSAA/3.18 ERA), but his RSAA was still 7th best in the National League. Once again, he pitched over 200 innings, the fifth time he has done that in his seven seasons with the Stros. He remains the best pitcher in the history of the club:

The B’s
Lance Berkman: B+. Over the past six seasons, the Big Puma has alternated between dominant hitting seasons and merely well above-average seasons. After having one of the best hitting seasons in Stros history in 2006, Berkman was merely very good this season (35 RCAA/.386 OBA/.510 SLG/.896 OPS/34 HR). He struggled for most of the first half of the season with a chronic bruise on his left palm that he has battled the past several seasons, but Berkman came back during the second half of the season to generate an RCAA score that was 13th best in the National League for the season. He remains the only Stros player who has a realistic chance to challenge Jeff Bagwell’s career RCAA record for the club:

Chad Qualls. B+. In four big league seasons, Qualls has had progressively better RSAA scores each season and has never been below-average. His 11 RSAA/3.05 ERA/ in 82 ? IP was the best on the staff after Roy O. He should be a candidate for the closer’s job next season.
Carlos Lee: B. Lee performed about as expected. An above-average and durable, but not great, hitter (19 RCAA/.354 OBA/.528 SLG/.882 OPS/32 HR/119 RBI), a solid run producer and a liability defensively in LF. I’m still not convinced that he’s a good fit for the Stros because his best positions are clearly 1B and DH. As a result, don’t be surprised if the Stros consider putting Lee at 1B and Berkman in LF next season. Inasmuch as Lee in his first season with the club almost broke Brad Ausmus’ Stros single-season record (30) for grounding into double plays (Lee had 28), he looks like a sure bet to beat that record eventually:
Luke Scott: B. After battling injuries and Phil Garner’s inexplicable reluctance to play him for much of the season, Scott came back for the second straight season after the All-Star break to post solid hitting numbers (14 RCAA/.351 OBA/.504 SLG/.855 OPS/18 HR). Come next season, new Stros manager Cecil Cooper would be smart to pencil Scott in each day in right field and fifth in the batting order and leave him there.
Brad Lidge: B. Lidge made a nice comeback (6 RSAA/3.36 ERA/67 IP) from his horrifying 2006 season, but he still struggled with his control frequently. Curiously, the Stros delayed his knee surgery to remove loose cartilage until after the season, which was a mistake unless they were showcasing him for a possible trade. Lidge is talented and an asset for any pitching staff, but his one dominant season (2004) does not mean that he is a dominant closer. My sense is that Qualls may end up being a better fit for that role.
Mike Lamb: B. Lamb had his second straight solid season as a backup 3B and 1B and the club’s best lefthanded hitter off the bench (10 RCAA/.366 OBA/.453 SLG/.820 OPS/11 HR). But he doesn’t hit with enough power to play 1B regularly and is not really good enough defensively to play 3B full-time. Nonetheless, Lamb is expected to look for a starting position with another team this off-season, so the Stros are not expecting him to return. Both parties would be better off if Lamb returned in his current reserve role.
The CÔøΩs
Wandy Rodriguez: C. Rodriguez went from being one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB over the past two seasons to merely being a below-average starter (-7 RCAA/4.58 ERA/182? IP). At least thatÔøΩs progress. ItÔøΩs conceivable that he could continue to improve and be a reasonable 4th or 5th starter. Of course, itÔøΩs just as conceivable that he could regress to what he was over the past couple of seasons. ThatÔøΩs the hit-or-miss nature of pitching at the non-elite levels of MLB.
Chris Sampson: C. Sampson was the StrosÔøΩ second most effective starter through the early part of the season, but then broke down. His season numbers (-5 RSAA/4.59 ERA/121? IP) werenÔøΩt all that great. However, what on earth was the StrosÔøΩ management smoking when they thought that a converted infielder who had never thrown more than 150 innings in a professional season could possibly hold up under the physical demands of being a starter for an entire MLB season? Sampson is another reasonable candidate for the 4th or 5th starter slot next season, although long relief may ultimately be his best role.
Dave Borkowski,Brian Moehler, Trevor Miller: C. Borkowski (-7 RSAA/5.15 ERA/71? IP) and Moehler (1 RSAA/4.07 ERA/59? IP) were workmanlike in the thankless task of mop-up duty and, goodness knows, they had plenty of that type of duty during a season such as this one. Miller had his second straight comeback season (-3 RSAA/4.86 ERA/46? IP) as a reasonably effective LOOGY (ÔøΩLefty One-Out GuyÔøΩ). Any of these guys could easily lose what little they have left tomorrow and not even make the team next spring.
Ty Wigginton: C. LetÔøΩs see here. In 604 plate appearances with Tampa Bay and then the Stros last season, 3B Wigginton hit 2 RCAA/.333 OBA/.459 SLG/.792 OPS/22 HRÔøΩs. In 353 plate appearances, Mike Lamb hit 10 RCAA/.366 OBA/.453 SLG/.820 OPS/11 HRÔøΩs and in 324 PAÔøΩs between Houston and San Diego, Morgan Ensberg hit -6 RCAA/.320 OBA/.404 SLG/.724 OPS/12 HRÔøΩs. LambÔøΩs career numbers are about the same as WiggintonÔøΩs and EnsbergÔøΩs are considerably better than either of them. What is the purpose of letting Ensberg and Lamb go in favor of Wigginton?
The DÔøΩs
Morgan Ensberg: D. See Ty Wigginton above and here.
Brad Ausmus: D. How is -16 RCAA/.318 OBA/.324 SLG/.642 OPS not an F? Because it is better than the -38 RCAA/.308 OBA/.285 SLG/.593 OPS that Ausmus laid on the Stros last season. The mainstream media and Stros management always touts AusmusÔøΩ ÔøΩintangiblesÔøΩ with the pitching staff as one of the reasons why he is important to have around. Well, those intangibles certainly didnÔøΩt help much the pitching staff this past season. One of WadeÔøΩs first moves as GM was to announce that he had offered Ausmus a one year deal to return in 2008 at the league average for catchers, assuring that Ausmus will fleece the Stros for at least one more season. Meanwhile, Ausmus retains his stranglehold on the top spot as the worst hitter in Stros history:

Mark Loretta: D-. The cluelessness of some of the mainstream media that cover the Stros was exemplified again by their suggestion that the Stros should re-sign Loretta to take over for Biggio at 2B next season. After a reasonably strong first couple of months of the season, the ruse of small sample sizes wore off and LorettaÔøΩs declining hitting skills were exposed (-9 RCAA/.352 OBA/.372 SLG/.724 OPS/4 HR). To put how bad he was for most of the season in perspective, he had only 7 more extra base hits than Ausmus in 114 more plate appearances. To make matters worse, he had only mildly better range defensively than Biggio. The double play combo of Loretta at SS and Biggio at 2B was not as good as several 50-year and up slow-pitch softball combos that IÔøΩve seen.
Adam Everett: D-. Before suffering what amounted to a season-ending broken leg in an ugly collision with Carlos Lee, Everett was having one of the worst seasons of his career. His hitting was worse than even his usual abysmal standards (-12 RCAA/.281 OBA/.318 SLG/.599 OPS). In just 66 games, he uncharacteristically committed 8 errors; he had 7 in 149 games during the entire 2006 season. If his range is limited next season by his injury, then Everett’s marginal value to the Stros is lost. Everett is one of those nice guys who you desperately want to succeed, but itÔøΩs past time now for the Stros to upgrade at this position.
Eric Bruntlett: D-. Bruntless was screwed around by Stros management when they hired Loretta during the off-season after Bruntlett had played quite well in the reserve middle infielder role last season. However, Bruntlett simply did not play well in 2007 (-6 RCAA/.346 OBA/.283 SLG/.629 OPS/0 HR). His stellar defense even suffered so that Managers Garner and Cooper became reluctant to play him at SS. I’d still take him over another season of Loretta, though.
Eric Munson: D-. Munson had an opportunity to show the Stros that he is their catcher of the future, but blew it by his less-than-stellar defense and lousy hitting (-7 RCAA/.313 OBA/.356 SLG/.669 OPS/4 HR). Let’s hope that Towles proves to be ready for MLB next spring. I shudder at the thought of having Munson and Ausmus providing the catching for the 2008 season.
Humberto Quintero: D-. Quintero is the modern version of Luis Pujols (-4 RCAA/.281 OBA/.264 SLG/.545 OPS), which grizzled veterans of Stros history know is no compliment. Throws a mean ball to 2B from his knees, though.
The FÔøΩs
Craig Biggio: F. BidgÔøΩs career with the Stros gets an A, but his exit from the Stros gets an F. Biggio should have retired after the 2005 World Series trip when he would have ended his career as an above-National League average player and a certain Hall of Famer. Two seasons later, he is still a certain Hall of Famer, but he has sullied his career with two far below National League-average seasons (-19 RCAA/.285 OBA/.381 SLG/.666 OPS/10 HR in 2007). Meanwhile, he hurt his team with his subpar defense, by batting leadoff when his production did not justify it, and by blocking development of such younger players as 2B Chris Burke and OF Jason Lane, each of whom lost valuable MLB development time at their best position earlier in their career because of the StrosÔøΩ indulgence of BiggioÔøΩs quest for 3,000 hits. Biggio is a Stros icon, but it is no coincidence that the StrosÔøΩ dramatic decline over the past two seasons on the field has mirrored that of Biggio.
Chris Burke: F. Will Burke even get a chance to revive his career as a first year, full-time 28 year old 2B in 2008? He had a horrible season (-15 RCAA/.304 OBA/.357 SLG/.662 OPS/6 HR), perhaps best reflected by the fact that he had only 5 more extra base hits than Ausmus in roughly the same number of plate appearances. Burke has been the player most hurt by the Stros allowing Biggio to play at least two seasons longer than he should have. That may end up contributing to Burke never being able to handle a full-time MLB job at 2B.
Jason Lane: F. In 1363 career plate appearances, Lane has hit -12 RCAA/.314 RCAA/.457 SLG/.771 OPS/61 HR. Many mainstream media pundits that cover the Stros consider him an abject failure. In 1632 career plate appearances, former Stros CF Willy Taveras has hit -30 RCAA/.338 OBA/.350 SLG/.688 OPS/6 HR. Many of the same mainstream media pundits consider Taveras a great prize that former GM Tim Purpura gave away in a terrible trade. Go figure.
Orlando Palmeiro: F. Why is an aged singles hitting, career pinch-hitter taking up a roster spot on a club than needs to be developing younger players who can contribute regularly? Palmeiro had a bad season (-5/.342 OBA/.262 SLG/.604 OPS/0 HR) and would serve no useful purpose for the club next season.
Matt Albers: F. One of the troika of Stros starters who were among the worst in the National League this season, Albers deserves the most slack of the three because he should have been pitching at AAA Round Rock this season and then trying to make the club in 2008. Thrown to the wolves a season early, the 24 year-old mostly struggled (-20 RSAA/5.86 ERA/18 HR in 118? IP). Despite the rough start, he occasionally flashed sufficient talent that he will probably compete for the 4th or 5th starter role next spring.
Woody Williams. F-. I had doubts about the Williams deal when it was struck, but even I didnÔøΩt think it would turn out this bad (-22 RSAA/5.27 ERA/35 HR in 188 IP). He is signed for another season and might compete for a backend starterÔøΩs role next season, but he is better suited for mop-up duty and bullpen advice at this stage of his career. Beware of giving fly-ball pitchers in their early 40’s an opportunity to pitch a substantial number of innings at Minute Maid Park.
Jason Jennings: F-. The poster boy for everything that went wrong for the Stros in 2007. The Stros traded their best young starting pitcher for Jennings and then failed to discover during due diligence on the deal the extent of JenningsÔøΩ tendonitis that ended his season prematurely and resulted in surgery. That failure was likely the straw that broke the camelÔøΩs back in prompting McLane to fire former GM Tim Purpura. If Jennings can recover from the surgery in time for the 2007 season, it wouldnÔøΩt be a bad idea to take a flyer on him for the 2008 seasons for the right price ÔøΩ heck, he was a workhorse at Colorado before coming to the Stros. But there may be too much water under the bridge between Jennings and the Stros to make that work.
The Incompletes
Brandon Backe: I. Backe came back from Tommy John surgery on his elbow and pitched reasonably well in 28? IP (1 RSAA/3.77 ERA). If the Stros are going to contend next season, Backe turning into a solid no. 3 starter would be a big factor in propelling them to that goal.
Troy Patton: I. Patton is a case study in the fragile nature of young pitchers. Although he has just turned 22, Patton has been among the Stros top pitching prospects since being signed out of Tomball High School in 2004. Due to the StrosÔøΩ poor pitching this season, Patton was jet-streamed though AA and AAA and on to the big league club in August (1 RSAA/3.55 ERA/ 12? IP). However, that whirlwind resulted in him pitching 163 IP this season, which was much more than he had ever pitched before. Moreover, over a third of those innings were at the higher stress levels of AAA and MLB. As a result, he was shut down with a case of bicep tendonitis in September. Patton is probably in the mix for the 4th or 5th starter role next season, but in developing him, hereÔøΩs hoping that the Stros take note of the sad legacy of such overworked young starters as Mark Pryor and Kerry Wood.
J.R. Towles: I. Towles emerged this season as the StrosÔøΩ first top catching prospect in years. The 23 year old Crosby naive began the season in high A ball and ended up having a nice stretch of 14 games with the big league club in September (4 RCAA/.432 OBA/.575 SLG/1.007 OPS). Although he will be given a shot at a big league roster spot during spring training, donÔøΩt be surprised if needs more seasoning at AAA before he comes a regular at the MLB level.
Juan Gutierrez and Felipe Paulino: I. Two pitchers who are graduates of the StrosÔøΩ Venezuelan academy, Guiterrez and Paulino (whose full last name is actually ÔøΩPaulino del GuidiceÔøΩ) both figure to be in the mix next spring for a roster spot. Gutierrez is a 23 year old who was the workhorse of the AAA Round Rock staff this season. He looked a bit overmatched in his cup of coffee this season with the Stros (-4 RSAA/ 5.91 ERA in 21? IP), but he held up under the stress of pitching over 175 IP this season. He looks as if he could develop into a decent mid-rotation starter. The 23 year old Paulino has a nice heater, but he looks better suited to be a reliever than a starter to me. The 131 IP that he pitched at AA Corpus and with the Stros this season (-6 RSAA/ 7.11 ERA in 19 IP) were the most that he has ever pitched in his career.
Dennis Sarfate: I. A late-season waiver wire pickup from the Brewers (they had to let him go because they were out of minor league options on him), Sarfate is 26 year old, one-pitch fireball reliever who has struggled with control (sound familar?) throughout his career. He pitched well in a small sample size with the Stros (3 RSAA/1.08 ERA in 8? IP) , but it is far from certain that he can be a consistent contributor in the bullpen.
Josh Anderson and Cody Ransom: I. Beware of small sample sizes. Anderson is a 24 year old CF and Willy Taveras clone. His small sample size with the Stros (4 RCAA/.413 OBA/.403 SLG/.816 OPS in 21 games) was far better than he generated in full seasons at either AA or AAA. He is not considered a top prospect and it would not be prudent to play him in CF and Pence in RF regularly rather than Pence in CF and Luke Scott in RF. Ransom is a 31 year old, career minor leaguer (or a AAAA prospect, so they say) who fielded better than Loretta and Bruntlett during his stint with the big league club in September. It is not a good sign if he is a prospect to make the clubÔøΩs roster next season.
The 2007 season statistics for the Stros are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics: