Daily Archives: December 13, 2006

Not another dime

Posted on by
1

jail15.jpgCharles Kuffner, one of Houston’s best political bloggers, notes a small sign of progress (also here) in the seemingly relentless and misguided campaign of local governments to build expensive and unnecessary fiefdoms in the guise of large jails:

State Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, said there is no need for [Harris County] to spend at least $267 million building two jails when it could cut the inmate population at the county jail by allowing non-dangerous offenders out on bail before trial.
“I am very suspect whether there is a need for jail space,” said Whitmire, who chairs the Senate Criminal Justice Committee. “Harris County wouldn’t have an overcrowding problem at all if it had an effective pretrial release program.”
Whitmire said the Legislature, in the upcoming session, may look at ways to help reduce jail overcrowding, such as shorter sentences for some crimes.
Commissioners Court likely will ask voters next November to approve bonds for new jails that would add 4,600 beds.
County Judge Robert Eckels and other members of Commissioners Court said the jails are needed to reduce overcrowding now and in the coming decades.

As noted earlier here, the condition of the Harris County Jail has long been a civic embarrassment, but the solution is not simply to build more jails. As noted earlier here, Scott Henson has written this thorough and insightful analysis of the true problem with the Harris County Jails, which is overcrowding from sloppy and lazy processing of prisoners who do not need to be incarcerated pending their trial.
There are some powerful political forces — county commissioners, contractors, police unions, etc. — that benefit from and support this unending spiral of jail construction, while the constituencies supporting prisoners are not as powerful or well-funded. However, it is clear that the solution is not simply to build bigger and more expensive jails. Rather, building additional facilities should not even be a consideration unless or until Harris County adopts a sensible pre-trial release policy that frees up literally thousands of existing jail cells that are being wasted on folks who should not be in jail. Moreover, the county should also be required to fix the chronically deplorable condition of its existing jails before seeking to build more. This is a community issue — and in other communities as well — that should transcend party politics. But I doubt that it will.

Continental’s big news

Posted on by
2

Continental Airlines logo5.jpgThe big news story today in Houston is the announcement about Continental Airlines engaging in merger negotiations with Chicago-based United Airlines. Here are the stories from the Wall Street Journal ($), the NY Times, the Financial Times and the Houston Chronicle.
The bottom line on the proposed merger is that it’s a longshot for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that such mergers are traditionally complex and expensive. However, the fact that merger talks between the second-largest (United) and the fifth-largest airlines are taking place at all is a reflection that the airline industry is primed for a round of consolidations as the industry rebounds from the severe downturn that was inflamed by the effects of September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. United ended up in a long reorganization case under chapter 11 that it emerged from in early this year, but both Continental and United have absorbed higher fuel costs and added capacity, and are among the carriers that are expected to Improve financially in 2007. Mergers could help both airlines reduce overhead by eliminating overlapping routes.
One of the issues that mitigates against a merger between the two airlines is “golden share” that Northwest Airlines Corp. holds in Continental, which is a special voting series of Continental preferred stock Northwest holds in connection with a marketing alliance with Continental that does not expire until 2025. Thus, if a proposed merger requires shareholder approval of Continental, then Northwest could use those shares to block the merger. But Continental and United could simply structure around the golden share, such as having Continental buying another airline so long as such a transaction didn’t require Continental shareholders’ approval.
Also, United is clearly playing the field right now. The airline has recently approached Delta Airlines, which is currently wallowing in a chapter 11 case, regarding a merger through a chapter 11 plan of reorganization as an alternative to a hostile takeover bid that US Airways is currently pursuing.
Continental shares declined yesterday 5.6% to $42.88, but they continue to trade near the top of their past year range. The stock of UAL, United’s parent, also is trading near its 52-week high after closing down 2.9% at $43.23. This is the type of deal that will either gain momentum quickly or fizzle out, so stay tuned.

Evaluating the Jennings deal

Posted on by
1

Jason Jennings 121306.jpgThe Stros made their second big off-season acquisition on Tuesday as they acquired Denver Rockies ace and former Baylor star Jason Jennings and journeyman pitcher Miguel Asencio in trade for CF Willy Taveras, promising starter Jason Hirsh and mercurial starter Taylor Buchholz. A friend who was driving at the time called to alert me to the deal and to inform that the sports talk shows were bashing the trade. Although the Stros first deal was questionable, this one is not.
Giving up young pitchers such as Hirsh and Buchholz always risks depletion of pitching depth, but that is the Stros’ strength right now, so they could afford to give up something in that area. Jennings is a 28 year-old, emerging star and an undervalued talent in Denver (he will make “only” $5.5 million next season) where his pitching stats suffered until the club started storing baseballs in a Coors Field humidor over the past couple of seasons. His career runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) is only 23 in five seasons, but he is coming off his best season in which he had a 25 RSAA and a 3.78 ERA. If the Stros can lock him up after the 2007 season, then Jennings and Roy O can anchor the starting pitching rotation for years to come. And if the Stros re-sign Roger Clemens for at least a portion of the upcoming season, then the Stros have a potentially league-leading rotation, particularly when you add in the recently-acquired Woody Williams.
Meanwhile, what the Stros gave up was mostly hat and little cattle at this point. Taveras’ limitations are well-chronicled, so he will be replaced by a player — either Chris Burke, Jason Lane or Hunter Pence — who will generate more runs for the Stros than Taveras. The 25 year-old Buchholz has great stuff, but he mostly stunk when given an opportunity in the starting rotation last season (-17 RSAA; 5.89 ERA) and has never been able to pitch a full season of professional ball because of injury breakdown. The 24 year-old Hirsh is a potential star as he dominated the Texas League last season, but the fact of the matter is that Jennings was a better pitcher than Hirsh at his age and it is unlikely that Hirsh will develop into as good a pitcher as Jennings is right now. So, my sense is that the Stros were smart to overpay a bit with potential for an established frontline starter.
Think of Acensio, the throw-in on the deal, as sort of a right-handed Carlos Hernandez-type. He was a promising pitcher with the Royals as a 21 year-old back in 2001, but he broke down in 2004 and underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He hasn’t pitched much in the majors since then, but still has mid-90’s stuff and a wicked change up. He’s one of the guys who we might never hear about it again, but he’s young enough to take a flyer on to see whether he can develop into a middle reliever in a couple of years.
The bottom line — the Stros gave up a potential solid starting pitcher in Hirsh for a proven starting pitcher in Jennings who is not much older. Ascencio and Buchholz are essentially a wash, and the Stros improved by subtraction in getting rid of Taveras, who cost the Stros 30 runs his two seasons with the club over what an average National League player (think Chris Burke) would have produced for the club. That’s a good trade for the Stros in my book.
Williams’ career stats are below and a pdf of the same is here. The abbreviations for the pitching stats are here.

Continue reading →