The Stros made their second big off-season acquisition on Tuesday as they acquired Denver Rockies ace and former Baylor star Jason Jennings and journeyman pitcher Miguel Asencio in trade for CF Willy Taveras, promising starter Jason Hirsh and mercurial starter Taylor Buchholz. A friend who was driving at the time called to alert me to the deal and to inform that the sports talk shows were bashing the trade. Although the Stros first deal was questionable, this one is not.
Giving up young pitchers such as Hirsh and Buchholz always risks depletion of pitching depth, but that is the Stros’ strength right now, so they could afford to give up something in that area. Jennings is a 28 year-old, emerging star and an undervalued talent in Denver (he will make “only” $5.5 million next season) where his pitching stats suffered until the club started storing baseballs in a Coors Field humidor over the past couple of seasons. His career runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) is only 23 in five seasons, but he is coming off his best season in which he had a 25 RSAA and a 3.78 ERA. If the Stros can lock him up after the 2007 season, then Jennings and Roy O can anchor the starting pitching rotation for years to come. And if the Stros re-sign Roger Clemens for at least a portion of the upcoming season, then the Stros have a potentially league-leading rotation, particularly when you add in the recently-acquired Woody Williams.
Meanwhile, what the Stros gave up was mostly hat and little cattle at this point. Taveras’ limitations are well-chronicled, so he will be replaced by a player — either Chris Burke, Jason Lane or Hunter Pence — who will generate more runs for the Stros than Taveras. The 25 year-old Buchholz has great stuff, but he mostly stunk when given an opportunity in the starting rotation last season (-17 RSAA; 5.89 ERA) and has never been able to pitch a full season of professional ball because of injury breakdown. The 24 year-old Hirsh is a potential star as he dominated the Texas League last season, but the fact of the matter is that Jennings was a better pitcher than Hirsh at his age and it is unlikely that Hirsh will develop into as good a pitcher as Jennings is right now. So, my sense is that the Stros were smart to overpay a bit with potential for an established frontline starter.
Think of Acensio, the throw-in on the deal, as sort of a right-handed Carlos Hernandez-type. He was a promising pitcher with the Royals as a 21 year-old back in 2001, but he broke down in 2004 and underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He hasn’t pitched much in the majors since then, but still has mid-90’s stuff and a wicked change up. He’s one of the guys who we might never hear about it again, but he’s young enough to take a flyer on to see whether he can develop into a middle reliever in a couple of years.
The bottom line — the Stros gave up a potential solid starting pitcher in Hirsh for a proven starting pitcher in Jennings who is not much older. Ascencio and Buchholz are essentially a wash, and the Stros improved by subtraction in getting rid of Taveras, who cost the Stros 30 runs his two seasons with the club over what an average National League player (think Chris Burke) would have produced for the club. That’s a good trade for the Stros in my book.
Williams’ career stats are below and a pdf of the same is here. The abbreviations for the pitching stats are here.