Will Carroll is an expert in sports medicine who writes a column for Baseball Prospectus($) regarding injuries to baseball players. Following up on thoughts expressed in this earlier post, Mr. Carroll notes in this NY Times op-ed that, from a clinical perspective, it is far too early to jump to the conclusion that Barry Bonds‘ phenomenal performance over the past several seasons is attributable to steroid use:
While there is no doubt that these chemicals are effective at their stated goal, albeit with significant complications, the question of how their effects manifest themselves in a baseball game has not been answered. There are no credible studies that connect drug use to improved performance, nor any that determine what cost these athletes may be paying. In 2004, Major League Baseball financed its first research grants with the pathetic sum of $100,000. The league values science about as much as one-third of the salary of the last player on the bench.
Mr. Carroll points out that Bonds’ recent production may simply be the anecdotal performance of a top baseball player:
What of this late-career surge? Certainly we can point to that with an accusing finger, sure that Bonds’s numbers in the record books have been written with some “cream” or “clear” substance. It’s much easier to point than to find facts.
According to Clay Davenport, a researcher at Baseball Prospectus, Hank Aaron’s best year for home runs – when he had the most homers per at bat – was 1973, when he was 39. His second best was in 1971, at age 37. Willie Stargell had his best seasons after age 37. Carlton Fisk put his best rate in the books when he was 40. Even Ty Cobb had his best home run rate at age 38, though the end of the dead-ball era helped that. It is not uncommon, according to Mr. Davenport, for a slugger to change his mechanics as he ages, swinging for the fences as his ability to run the bases declines.
And Mr. Carroll concludes by noting Hank Aaron‘s recent comments:
Perhaps Hank Aaron said it best: “I know that you can’t put something in your body to make you hit a fastball, changeup or curveball.”
Without more scientific studies on the effects that steroids and other drugs have on the game, we’re left with appeals to emotion, finger-pointing or worse.
Finally, in another off-season baseball post of interest, don’t miss Professor Sauer‘s fascinating post on how research is proving that the designated hitter in baseball is proving to be a moral hazard.