K-rations and dieting

Ancel Benjamin Keys, PhD., the inventor of the K-rations that kept Allied troops alive and reasonably well fed on the battlefield during WWII, died last week at the age of 101.
But the greater contribution of Dr. Keys is even more interesting. As Sandy Szwarc notes in this TCS op-ed, Dr. Keys’ greatest scientific contributions are to our understanding of the human body and eating.
Inasmuch as the mainstream media in America is obsessed with dieting and a svelte figure, few Americans who read Dr. Keys’ obituary know that, over half a century ago, he conducted the soundest clinical studies ever done on the adverse effects of dieting. His findings — which have been confirmed many times since — proved that dieting can actually cause severe physiological and psychological harm, often results in people becoming fatter, often leads to eating disorders, and even increases the risk for heart disease and life shortening illnesses.
As Ms. Szwarc notes:

The extreme physical and mental effects [of restricted diets that] Keys observed led to his famous quote:

“Starved people cannot be taught democracy. To talk about the will of the people when you aren’t feeding them is perfect hogwash.”

Read the entire article.

Merck is parachuting

Merck’s board has approved golden parachutes from 230 of its top executives.
On the heels of the problems noted in earlier posts here and here, my sense is that Merck’s board did not have particularly good timing in approving these parachutes.

A hedge fund for sports gamblers

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is fed up with the what he thinks is the roulette nature of the stock market. He has concluded that stock investing is not much different than gambling in Vegas, so for those who like to wager, he has come up with a better idea — a hedge fund that bets on sporting events.

“The goal of the fund would be to make money and to prove that the current equity markets are more Ponzi scheme than efficient markets,” Mr. Cuban said in his blog post announcing the hedge fund. “There is far more hypocrisy in equity markets than there is in non-traditional markets and that impacts those markets’ ability to be fair.”
“I’ve decided to start a new hedge fund. However, this hedge fund won’t invest in stocks or bonds. It’s going to be a fund that only places bets ? a gambling hedge fund.”

Mr. Cuban reasons that stock investing is generally unfair and that most gamblers have better information about their local sports team than investors do about a company. Inasmuch as the media reports on every hangnail suffered by a member of a local sports teams, Mr. Cuban contends that the media releases much more and better information than publicly traded companies.
Mr. Cuban has not yet provided many details about the venture, such as when the fund will be up and running, which sports the fund will bet on or what it will be called. He does say he will not pick the bets and that professionals will run the fund.
While a hedge fund run by professional gamblers may sound a bit far-fetched, the hedge fund industry has a long history of engaging in rather unusual trading strategies. Until recently, hedge funds were lightly regulated on the theory that people participating in them were sophisticated investors and able to take care of themselves. But in recent years, there has been an substantial increase in the number of hedge funds and the SEC has adopted more stringent rules. Accordingly, if Mr. Cuban’s fund raises more than $30 million in assets and has at least 15 investors, the advisers of the fund will have to register with the SEC by February 2006. This means that the advisers would have to disclose to the SEC their identities, the amount of money that they are managing, and the identiay of the fund’s compliance officer. Mr. Cuban will probably set up his fund so that it is open only to accredited investors, which normally have at least $1 million in assets.
Mr. Cuban concludes his blog post with his real purpose in starting the fund:

“By showing that gambling in the traditional sense is less of a gamble than gambling in the stock market, traditional markets will hopefully have to change to the benefit of investors.”

My sense is that this fund is going to be a bit more sophisticated — although no more competitive — than the traditional Kirkendall Family Bowl Game Pool that takes place each holiday season. ;^)

More gas trader indictments

U.S. prosecutors charged five former natural gas traders for allegedly supplying fake trade data to publishers that produce indexes used to value natural gas contracts. This post and this post refer to earlier indictments of the same nature against other El Paso Corp. traders.
Prosecutors alleged that two of the traders – Donald E. Burwell and James P. Phillips – operated as part of a conspiracy at El Paso Merchant Energy run that the government alleges was run by the head of gas trading. The executive who allegedly ran the conspiracy was not identified in the indictments.
Messrs. Burwell and Phillips, along with former El Paso trader Greg Singleton and former Dynegy Inc trader Michelle Marie Valencia were all charged with conspiracy, wire fraud and false reporting. A fifth trader — Jerry A. Futch Jr. — formerly of Reliant Energy Corp, was charged with four counts of reporting false transaction data. All five defendants pleaded innocent at an arraignment Monday and were released on $50,000 bond.
In an interesting twist, all the defendants except Mr. Futch were allowed to turn themselves in to the U.S. Marshal’s Office Monday morning, as is typical in white collar criminal cases. However, for some reason, Mr. Futch was not allowed to do so and was arrested at his home as he was getting ready to take his two children to school. No word yet on the reason for the government’s heavy handed handling of Mr. Futch.
The indictments follow a lengthy investigation into alleged efforts to manipulate the trading indexes, which are used to value billions of dollars in gas contracts and derivatives. Industry publications, such as the Inside FERC Gas Market Report, use data from traders to calculate the index price of natural gas. Accordingly, movement in index prices often affects the level of profits traders can generate. In these particular trader cases, it remains unclear whether the publication actually used the false information provided, but the government needs only to prove that fake trades were reported and not not that they were actually published or affected the markets.
Moreover, in an earlier case involving Ms. Valencia in which she was charged with false reporting, a federal district judge threw out the charges after ruling that the part of the Commodity Exchange Act that deals with reporting of false and misleading information on on commodity trades is unconstitutionally broad and vague. That ruling is currently on appeal at the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans, which has already conducted oral argument in the case and is currently preparing its decision.

More on basketball, hockey style

On the heels of this earlier post on the fight that occurred on November 19 at the Pistons-Pacers game, do not miss Professor Sauer’s analysis of the affair, with a Stros twist:

The Pacers’ brawl is not the first instance of a fan being leveled by a player-thrown haymaker. In one memorable incident in 1999, a fan raced onto the field at Milwaukee County Stadium and jumped on Billy Spiers in right field. Spiers’ Astros teamates were quick on the scene to defend him. I recall Mike Hampton landing a series of blows to the head of that bozo. Billy Spiers (a former Tiger in addition to being an Astro) was one of my favorite players. Put me in Hampton’s shoes and I’d have done the same thing, though not so effectively. Thanks for that, Mike.
Now, how different is Hampton’s defense of his teammate from Jermaine O’Neal and Stephen Jackson’s defense of Ron Artest? While there are differences, they are mostly a matter of degree. The common thread between the two incidents is the out of control fan.
Many issues are highlighted by the fight in Detroit. The NBA paid service to the media with swift and draconian punishment for the players involved. But to me, fan control is a more serious and more difficult problem than player control. Each time fans rush the court or the playing field after a game, they illustrate the raw power inherent in a crowd that no level of security short of an armored division can manage. The trick for sports management is to short-circuit the potential for a crowd to turn into a mob.

Definite clear thinking. Read the entire post.

Houston’s bull on oil prices

This earlier post reported on an interview of Matt Simmons, the Houston-based investment banker who is an expert on forecasting oil supplies. Following that interview, this Barron’s interview of Mr. Simmons warns that the Saudi oil supplies are not what they appear to be and that, because the Saudi oil industry is state-run, there is no independent auditor of national reserves who can verify just how large — or small — the Saudis’ reserves are. As Mr. Simmons notes, that makes a big difference for the following reasons:

With global demand for oil on the rise, and prices hovering near $50 a barrel, the Saudis’ production profile is more than academic. The No. 1 oil producer, Saudi Arabia pumps 13% of the world’s oil and boasts 23% of its oil reserves. Moreover, the Saudis alone claim to have excess production capacity and the ability to increase output if demand continues to rise.

If the Saudis’ numbers are correct, the kingdom could continue to produce at current levels of about 10 billion barrels a day for the next 50 years, or more. That would give the industrial world time to develop alternative energy sources and prepare for a graceful transition.

If Simmons is right, however, the world could face a dangerous imbalance between rising oil demand and diminishing supply, perhaps within the next 10 years. Oil prices could soar, economies could suffer, and oil-dependent nations, such as the U.S., China and Japan, would be forced to scramble for additional energy sources.

Matt Simmons’ opinions are not to be taken lightly. Read the entire article.

2004 Weekly local football review

Texans 31 Titans 21. My younger son and I went to the Texans game today with a couple of friends and we all enjoyed an entertaining game. The Texans began the game in a coma and found themselves trailing 21-3 midway through the second quarter as Titans’ QB Steve McNair sliced and diced the Texans’ secondary. The Texans then pieced together their only drive of the first half to narrow the score to 21-10, but still looked overmatched as they could not stop McNair’s pinpoint passing. Then, seemingly without reason, the Texans offense woke up in the third quarter, David Carr began to look like a top level NFL QB, and the Texans’ defense started getting pressure on McNair. Before you knew it, the Texans had scored two TD’s to take the lead 24-21. The remainder of the game pretty much involved the Texans playing it close to the vest on offense while defending furiously against the Titans’ fourth quarter thrusts. Finally, a McNair fumble and interception in the fourth quarter thwarted the Titans’ final drives, and then the Texans’ Domanick Davis ran in a late TD from 41 yards to seal the victory for the hometown crew. The bottomline on this one was that the Texans’ offensive line did a much better job of establishing a running attack for Davis and in protecting Carr, and that’s the primary reason that the Texans (now 5-6 on the season) were able to beat the former Oilers for the second time this season. Next week’s game for the Texans is at the Meadowlands against the Jets.
Dallas 21 Chicago 7. After a horrid first half display from both teams that almost set back NFL offenses from several decades of development, the Pokes’ Vinnie Testaverde made the first of what will likely in coming weeks be several appearances in relief of current Cowboys savior Drew Henson and engineered two second half drives to secure the win for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. Henson — who curiously has gotten rich off of unrealized potential in both professional baseball and professional football — stunk in his first start for the Pokes, going 4 of 12 for 31 yards with 1 interception that was run back 45 yards for a Chicago TD. Thus, in his first outing, Henson passed for more yardage and touchdowns to the other team than his own. The 4-7 Cowboys go to Seattle for the Monday Night game next week against the Seahawks. The Texans have a real chance of finishing this season with a better record than the Cowboys, which would not go over well with Pokes’ owner Mr. Jones at Valley Ranch.
Texas Longhorns 26 Texas Aggies 13. In a game that was not as close as the score indicates, the Horns calmed down after a first half near-disaster to pound the Aggies into submission in the second half and come away with their fifth straight win in the storied series between the two programs. The Horns were about ready to take a 13-7 lead at the end of the first half when Texas QB Vince Young had a brain fart and fumbled the ball while attempting to stretch his arm over the goal line. Aggie safety Jonte Buhl picked up the fumble and raced 98 yards for an Aggie TD and a stunning 13-7 Aggie lead at halftime, which did not go over well with the Horns. That incident appeared to make the Longhorns downright ornery as the Horns’ defense suffocated Aggie QB Reggie McNeal in the second half, holding the Aggie offense to a total of about 60 yards total offense. In one series during the fourth quarter, Texas took complete control of the line of scrimmage and sacked the elusive McNeal on three straight plays before the exasperated Aggie QB threw an interception on the fourth play. Meanwhile, Young and Cedric Benson kept pounding on the overworked Aggie defense and methodically scored 19 second half points to put the game away. The 10-1 Horns now await the outcome of the league championship games, but it is looking more and more like the best Texas team of the Mack Brown era will again miss out on a Bowl Championship Series game on New Year’s Day. That’s a shame, became this Horns team — particularly its fast and strong defense — is pretty darn good. The Aggies look like they are headed for the Holiday Bowl in San Diego against Arizona State for the Ags’ first bowl game in three seasons.
Louisiana Tech 51 Rice 14. Rice’s disappointing season ended on Monday night in a 51-14 loss to Louisiana Tech before a “crowd” of friends and family members of 8,317 at Reliant Stadium. The Owls finished with a record of 3-8 on the season.
The 3-8 Houston Cougars’ season finished last week (mercifully).
And finally, don’t miss Kevin Whited’s final Big 12 wrap-up.

More on the wild world of Equatorial Guinea

The latest news from the wild world of Equatorial Guinea is not good for Mark Thatcher, the son of former English Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Here are the previous posts on this lurid affair. Movie rights to be sold soon.

UAL, we have a big problem

Most of news over the past two years about the United Airlines chapter 11 case has focused on the legacy airlines operating losses, its unfunded pension obligations, and its need to overhaul or reject its collective bargaining agreements. Here is a series of posts on those various issues.
So, United has established that a legacy airline can lose money for a long time while floundering in chapter 11. However, can United continue meandering in chapter 11 without aircraft? Look at this seemingly innocuous press release that United issued late this past Friday:

A U.S. federal bankruptcy court judge has blocked a group of creditors from repossessing up to 14 airplanes from UAL Corp.’s United Airlines, saving the bankrupt carrier tens of millions of dollars.
Judge Eugene Wed off issued a temporary restraining order Friday barring the group, represented by the Chicago-based law firm Chapman & Cutler LLP, from seizing up to eight Boeing 767s and six 737s.
The group of financiers, which controls about one-third of United’s fleet, had threatened to seize the planes as early as Dec. 1 because of an impasse over their leases.
United, the nation’s No. 2 airline, is seeking to lower aircraft operating costs by renegotiating its leases with creditors. However, it argued that the Chapman group was violating antitrust laws by renegotiating as a bloc instead of as individual leaseholders, forcing United to accept higher lease rates.

Well, you say, what’s so unusual about that? Secured creditors in chapter 11 cases are automatically stayed from repossessing their collateral until they petition the Bankruptcy Court to modify the automatic injunction under Bankruptcy Code section 362 to allow them to exercise their contractual rights. Isn’t the Bankruptcy Judge simply enforcing the stay against United’s aircraft lenders?
Not exactly. Aircraft collateral is treated differently under the Bankruptcy Code than other types of collateral (financial institutions that make aircraft loans lobby well in Congress). Under section 1110 of the Bankruptcy Code, the above-described TRO is on quite shaky grounds:

(a)(1) . . . , the right of a secured party with a security interest in [aircraft] equipment, . . . or of a lessor or conditional vendor of such equipment, to take possession of such equipment in compliance with a security agreement, lease, or conditional sale contract, and to enforce any of its other rights or remedies, under such security agreement, lease, or conditional sale contract, to sell, lease, or otherwise retain or dispose of such equipment, is not limited or otherwise affected by any other provision of this title or by any power of the court.

In plain English, that says “a bank that has aircraft collateral cannot be enjoined from repossessing and selling its collateral in a chapter 11 case.” Section 1110 goes on to provide that the only limitation on an aircraft lender’s collateral rights is during the first 60 days of the chapter 11 case and that the debtor must cure any defaults under its agreement with the aircraft lender if the debtor wants to continue using the aircraft that is collateral for the lender’s loans to the debtor.
Consequently, it looks like the financial institutions that control a third of United’s fleet have had enough. As United’s management, unions, and other parties-in-interest continue to fiddle while Rome burns, I wonder whether they have examined pro formas on operating an airline without a substantial portion of its aircraft fleet? Inasmuch as the Bankruptcy Court’s decision to approve a TRO in the face of section 1110 is almost certainly in error, United’s dithering parties-in-interest better get ready to deal with a few less aircraft sooner rather than later.

Ken Lay’s lawyer hammers the Chronicle and the Enron Task Force

The public relations contest that the Enron case has become continued today. In this Chronicle op-ed, Mike Ramsey — former Enron chairman and CEO Kenneth Lay’s criminal defense attorney — levels a blast at the Chronicle for adhering to the government’s witch hunt theme in regard to a recent Chronicle editorial critical of Linda Lay’s involvement in the sale of a Lay Family charity’s Enron stock days before the filing of Enron’s bankruptcy case:

As the tabloids demonstrate, there is money to be made by jumping onto the popular side of a public frenzy. However, one can still hope that major newspapers will refuse to become mouthpieces for those who prefer strong-arm tactics to public trials.
Just maybe it is time to get to the truth by a public trial instead of in the backrooms of the Enron Task Force and Houston Chronicle. (One might even wonder if those backrooms have adjoining doors.)

Then, Mr. Ramsey gives the Lay side of the story regarding the stock sale:

Linda Lay sold Enron shares as president of the family’s charitable foundation. They were shares that Ken and Linda had given to that foundation prior to the end of 2000 and every penny of the money from the sale went to such charities as United Way, YMCA, DePelchin Children’s Center, Star of Hope, Holocaust Museum Houston, and Open Door Mission, among many others.
The sale was made on the day, Nov. 28, 2001, when the share price was in free-fall. Linda salvaged what she could, as was her duty as president of a charitable foundation. (The sale price was $2.37, off from a high near $85 earlier that year and a closing price the day before of $4.01.) More remarkable, during that market panic neither Ken nor Linda sold any of their personal shares.
Indeed, after Ken’s return as CEO in August 2001 they held all their shares as the market plunged from near $40 per share to near $0.
The only shares that Ken and Linda ever sold during that tragic three and one-half months were sold to prevent margin calls from triggering a forced sale of all their shares. They never voluntarily sold a dime’s worth after Ken’s return. In fact, at bankruptcy they still held more than 1 million shares and more than 4 million vested stock options.

The dubious nature of the government’s insider trading case against Mr. Lay has been examined in many previous posts here, including this one and this one. But Mr. Ramsey sees something far more sinister than a government investigation:

While it is true that Andrew Weissmann and his Enron Task Force have chosen not to comment publicly [on the investigation of Linda Lay’s stock sale], I cannot accept that after nearly three years of investigation, the press and a secret grand jury happened, by coincidence, upon this particular event at the same time.
Perhaps I am cynical, but this is not exactly my first rodeo.
No, there was a calculated leak done to produce an unfavorable story in aid of a shamefully false accusation.

Mr. Ramsey is undoubtedly correct that the Linda Lay story was a calculated leak by the government, and I am sympathetic to the argument that the prosecution has no business engaging in this type of public relations. However, the fact remains that Linda Lay’s sale of this stock days before Enron’s bankruptcy was a stupid move. Here’s hoping that no lawyer advised her to do it.