? August 2004 | Main | October 2004 ?
September 30, 2004
An interesting observation about the Stros
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospetus ($) observed the following regarding the Stros' sweep of the Cardinals:
The Astros took advantage of the losses by the Cubs and Giants, completing a sweep of the Cardinals to tie those two at 70 defeats. If they run the table this weekend against the Rockies--and they've won 15 straight home games--they can do no worse than a tie for the wild-card slot.
What a waste of two-and-a-half years. Someone owes Larry Dierker an apology.
Ouch!
Posted by Tom at 5:12 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
El Paso finally files 10-K
As expected, Houston-based El Paso Corp. disclosed a huge loss for 2003 and restated previous financial results in a delayed Form 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
El Paso posted a full-year 2003 loss of $1.93 billion, or $3.23 a share, on revenue of $6.7 billion. The loss from continuing operations was $616 million, or $1.03 a share. The company also restated its financial results for every year since 1999 as a result of an investigation into its reserve accounting and accounting for hedging transactions. The overall impact of the restatements was to cut shareholder equity by about $2.4 billion at Sept. 30, 2003. Of this amount, about $1.7 billion related to the restatement of El Paso's historical reserve estimates and about $700 million related to the restatement of its historical accounting for hedges. Here are the earlier posts on El Paso's mounting financial problems.
The 10-K also disclosed that one of El Paso's units has been subpoenaed by a grand jury from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York to produce records regarding the United Nations' Oil for Food Program governing sales of Iraqi oil. The unit, El Paso CGP Company, was formerly Coastal Corp., which the company acquired in January 2001. The former chairman of Coastal -- Oscar Wyatt -- was an unabashed critic of Operation Desert Storm in the first Persian Gulf War and has been a vocal public critic of El Paso's management over the past several years.
El Paso also received a subpoena from the SEC earlier this year relating to its reserve revisions, which are also being investigated by the U.S. attorney. Moreover, the company's hedge accounting is also the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Attorney and may become the subject of a separate inquiry by the SEC.
Man, is El Paso a white collar criminal defense attorney's dream or what?
Finally, El Paso reported that it expects to meet its November 30 deadline for filing its delayed Form 10-Q's for the first two quarters of 2004. El Paso remains on my reorganization watch as a likely candidate for a chapter 11 case in the near future, so stay tuned.
Posted by Tom at 4:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Durst case finally comes to a close
After killing his neighbor three years ago and dumping the butchered body into Galveston Bay and then winning an acquittal in his subsequent 2003 murder trial, Robert Durst -- an heir to a New York family's real estate fortune -- pleaded guilty Wednesday to two counts of bail jumping and one of evidence tampering that will allow Durst to get out of prison in less than a year. Here are earlier posts on the Durst case.
The deal came just two hours after state appellate judge Judge Jackson B. Smith Jr. had removed removed Galveston State District Judge Susan Criss from the case. Judge Criss had refused the plea deal earlier in the week, which was yet another strange twist in a case. Judge Criss had been rebuked by the appellate court earlier this year for setting Durst's bail at $3 billion dollars on the three relatively minor charges after Durst had been acquitted in the murder trial (the appellate court reduced the bail to $450,000). With credit for time served both before and after his murder trial, Durst will likely be freed from prison early next year under state prison system rules.
The recusal came after sheriff's investigators testified before Judge Smith that Judge Criss had given them information in December that prompted an investigation into possible jury tampering during Durst's murder trial. Although the investigators found no evidence of criminal activity by jurors or anyone involved in the trial, they did secretly tape-record conversations between Durst and a juror who visited him in jail after the trial. Nevertheless, Durst did admit in the taped conversation that he skipped a court appearance after he posted a $300,000 bond in the murder case in September 2001.
As a result, Durst's defense attorneys Dick DeGuerin and Mike Ramsey maintained that Judge Criss' involvement in the jury tampering investigation that led to Durst's taped admission made her a potential witness in Durst's bail-jumping case, and that such involvement required her to be removed from adjudicating the case. When Judge Criss refused to recuse herself from the case earlier this week, Judge Smith did so in about 10 minutes on Wednesday.
Posted by Tom at 5:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2004
Stros take Wild Card playoff lead
Bags singled in the go ahead run and Berkman doubled in Bags with the insurance run in the seventh inning as the Stros beat the Cards 6-4 on Wednesday night at a rollicking Juice Box. The win completed an unlikely Stros sweep of the Cards, who sport the best record in Major League Baseball. The Stros have now won a record 15 straight at the Juice Box and are 33-10 over the past month and a half. What a ride it's been!
With the Cubs blowing another one on Wednesday afternoon to the Reds and the Giants losing to the Padres late Wednesday, the Stros have now moved into sole possession of the lead for the Wild Card playoff berth, a half game ahead of both the Cubs and the Giants. The Cubs play the Reds and the Giants play the Pads again on Thursday, which is an off day for the Stros, so the worst shape that the Stros will begin play on Friday is that they will be tied for the Wild Card lead.
The Rocket gave yet another remarkable performance, going six innings and giving up 4 runs on 4 hits while striking out 8 and walking only one. The big blow was Scott Rolen's two out, two run yak in the sixth after Clemens thought that he had struck out the hitter before Rolen (that hitter eventually walked). Clemens had some choice words for the home plate umpire as he walked off the field at the end of the sixth.
Qualls, Miceli, and Lidge were again money for the Stros in relief, although the entire Juice Box crowd audibly gasped when Mabry toyed with a game tying yak while flying out deep to right with one on to end the game. When Berkman caught Mabry's fly, I couldn't tell whether the resulting Juice Box roar was one of joy or relief. The Stros hitters also battled gamely against tought Cards starter Suppan and managed 9 hits, including a two run Ensberg yak and Kent's solo shot.
The Stros have a well deserved day off on Thursday before the Rockies come in for the final weekend series of the season. Pete Munro and the rest of the bullpen pitches in the Friday game, Roy O comes back for the Saturday game, and then I would not be surprised if Clemens comes back on three days rest to pitch on Sunday if the Stros still have a chance. The upcoming weekend is shaping up to be a wild one, something that I had discounted as recently as a few days ago. I am thoroughly enjoying being wrong on that one!
Posted by Tom at 10:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Enron prosecutors pursue extradition of English bankers under U.K. terrorism law
Three former Natwest Bank bankers appeared in a London court yesterday to fight extradition to the United States, where they are facing fraud charges in connection with a deal with Enron Corp.
Natwest bankers David Bermingham, Giles Darby and Gary Mulgrew, are accused of conspiring with Enron's former CFO, Andrew Fastow and his colleague Michael Kopper, to fleece their employer, Natwest Bank, of around 4 million pounds, which equates to about $7.3 million. The three face extradition to stand trial in Houston on seven counts of wire fraud and illegally gaining money via international banking systems. Messrs. Fastow and Kopper have already admitted involvement in the alleged scheme as part of a plea bargain.
Interestingly, none of the British bankers have have ever been charged with a criminal offense in England. In fact, Natwest Bank is still lending the defendants money to cover their legal defense costs. The defendants contend that they will not receive a fair trail in Texas in the aftermath of the Enron scandal, which is likely true given the adverse publicity regarding Enron that the Government has promoted throughout the Enron investigation.
The Government claims that the bankers conspired with Messrs. Fastow, Kopper and other senior Enron executives in 2000 to sell a stake in a Cayman Island company for $1 million when the true value was much higher. A month later, the company was re-sold and the trio each made a large profit while Messrs. Fastow and Kopper pocketed $12 million each.
Remarkably, if the three are extradited, they could face an extended period of time in a U.S. federal penitentiary before their case gets to court because, as foreign citizens, they could be held without bail until trial. The controversial three-day extradition hearing in London is the first under the new British Extradition Act, which was promoted by British politician David Blunkett to trap suspected terrorists.
Meanwhile, as the Government continues prosecution of its flimsy case in the Nigerian Barge case in Houston federal court, this Wall Street Journal ($) article reports that the Enron Task Force has elected not to pursue criminal charges against Citigroup executives in regard to an Enron-Citigroup transaction that was much larger and strikingly similar to the Nigerian Barge transaction that prompted the Government to indict four former Merrill Lynch executives and two mid-level former Enron executives.
The lack of any meaningful prosecutorial discretion of the Bush Administration's Justice Department in regard to the prosecution of alleged business crimes continues to be highly troubling. Is this what the Republican Party suggests is a "business-friendly" administration?
Posted by Tom at 7:48 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
September 28, 2004
Stros pull within a hair of Wild Card playoff lead
Jeff Bagwell drove in both of the Stros' runs, Brandon Backe and Chad Qualls set the table for Brad Lidge, and Lidge shut down the Cards in the ninth to lead the Stros to a 2-1 heart-pounding win over the Cardinals on Tuesday night at the Juice Box. The Stros have won five of its last six and tied a franchise record with their 14th straight home win, equaling a mark set in 1980.
The Stros moved within a half-game of the Cubs, who lost to the Reds 8-3 at Wrigley Field and the Giants, who beat the Padres 7-5 in San Diego, for the lead in the Wild Card playoff race.
Carlos Beltran and home plate umpire O'Nora prevented the Cardinals from taking the lead in the fifth when Beltran caught a no out line drive, then threw out Reggie Sanders at the plate for a double play. Home plate umpire O'Nora clearly blew the call, but the Stros are accepting charity from any quarter at this point.
In the most important game of this season, the Rocket takes the hill Wednesday night against the Cards to attempt to pull the Stros even in the Wild Card playoff race. The Juice Box will be one juiced place on Wednesday night.
Posted by Tom at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Trouble in Cambridge
How can anyone on the Harvard faculty or in the Harvard administration not view as a troubling trend this latest episode of, at best, academic sloppiness? To make matters even more dreadful, I'm not sure what's worse, Tribe's plagiarism or Dershowitz's disingenuous defense of it.
Meanwhile, the Harvard Plagiarism Archive has popped up to keep us abreast of these developments.
Posted by Tom at 8:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 27, 2004
Stros and Cubs win
The Stros beat the Cards 10-3 at the Juice Box on Monday night behind Roy O's solid pitching and a 14 hit attack that included five doubles, a Beltran triple and a Jason Lane pinch hit yak.
Unfortunately, the Cubs won, too. Stros hold serve. Backe starts the Tuesday night game.
Posted by Tom at 10:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Checking in on the Nigerian Barge trial
I had a hearing on Monday afternoon in federal court, so I went a bit early and sat in on the ongoing trial of the first Enron-related criminal case to go to trial -- the Nigerian Barge case. Today was a big day during the trial because one of Andy Fastow's most trusted lieutenants -- Michael Kopper -- took the stand as the Government's main witness.
The first four days of the trial that took place last week were remarkable only because the testimony of the initial Government witnesses confirmed that there is not all that much dispute between the prosecution and the defense about the salient facts of the case. The big difference is in the interpretation of the facts, and that's why Kopper is an important witness for the Government.
In effect, Kopper is standing in for Fastow, who the Enron Task Force prosecutors do not want to call in this trial of two low-level Enron executives and four Merrill Lynch executives over a relatively small deal. Kopper is testifying under a plea bargain deal in which the Government has agreed not to prosecute Kopper's gay lover for profiting off of Enron's off-balance sheet partnerships and to recommend a minimum prison sentence for Kopper if he testifies in accordance with the government's theory of the case in this trial and others.
Kopper makes a good impression as a witness -- young, handsome, courteous, articulate, bright, and soft-spoken. And apparently, he testified this morning in support of the government's theory of the case -- i.e., Enron induced Merrill Lynch to buy the barges at the end of 1999 by orally guaranteeing through Fastow that Enron would arrange a sale of the barges for Merrill by the end of June 2000 at a pre-arranged profit. If such an Enron guaranty existed, then the Government contends that Enron's booking of the profit from the deal was improper and the Defendants engaged in a fraud on Enron's investors.
But if the morning went according to the Government's form, the afternoon was a different story. Kopper was ravaged during cross-examination, first by Lawrence Zweifach, who represents Merrill Defendant James Brown, and then by David Spears, who represents Merrill Defendant William Fuhs.
Kopper readily admitted to Mr. Zweifach that the barge transaction was such a risky deal that he would not approve it originally as an asset purchase for one of Fastow's now infamous off balance sheet partnerships that Enron used liberally to buy assets from Enron. Inasmuch as the Government's theory of the case is based largely on the allegation that Merrill's purchase of the barges was not a risky deal because of Enron's guaranty, this line of cross-examination of the Government's primary witness did not go over well with the prosecution lawyers. They objected often and ineffectively throughout the cross-examination as U.S. District Judge Ewing Werlein overruled almost every Government objection.
Then, Mr. Spears took over and Kopper admitted the truth of a mid-2000 memo written by an Enron analyst that openly stated that Enron faced a dilemma with regard to the barges and Merrill -- either Enron needed to broker a sale of the barges to an investor to preserve Enron's client relationship with Merrill or Enron should simply buy the barges back and restate its financial statements to account for the deal as a loan rather than a sale. There was no mention whatsoever in the memo of any Enron "guaranty" to Merrill or that restatement of earnings was all that big of a deal for Enron. Again, you could almost hear the air leaking from the Government's balloon as Kopper's cross-examination proceeded.
However, no one really knows how all of this plays out with the jury, which is the only reason that this case is being prosecuted in the first place. The Government figures that it can get convictions on such a flimsy case because most jurors will be biased against anything having to do with the cultural pariah Enron.
Based on what I know about this case and what I witnessed today, if the Government gets convictions in as weak a case as this one, then the Government will have little disincentive to bring equally dubious cases against business executives. Accordingly, if you represent business clients, stay tuned to developments in this trial.
Posted by Tom at 9:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)
The decision to die
THis long NY Times article about end-of-life decision making provides an excellent overview of the issues that confront families and health care professionals in making those decisions. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 6:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Kerry's management style
My sense is that the upcoming Presidential election is going to be a much closer race than many Bush Administration supporters currently think, so this NY Sunday Times article on John Kerry's management style is timely in that it provides some insight into how a President Kerry would go about making decisions.
Mr. Kerry, who is a former prosecutor, is a four term senator without any meaningful management experience in terms of running a business, so his management style is primarily reflected on how he runs his campaign:
Mr. Kerry is a meticulous, deliberative decision maker, always demanding more information, calling around for advice, reading another document — acting, in short, as if he were still the Massachusetts prosecutor boning up for a case.He stayed up late last Sunday night with aides at his home in Beacon Hill, rewriting — and rearguing — major passages of his latest Iraq speech, a ritual that aides say occurs even with routine remarks.
In interviews, associates repeatedly described Mr. Kerry as uncommonly bright, informed and curious.
But Mr. Kerry's curiousity brings with it an indecisiveness borne of a tendency to become deluged in what I refer to as "data dumps:"
But the downside to his deliberative executive style, they said, is a campaign that has often moved slowly against a swift opponent, and a candidate who has struggled to synthesize the information he sweeps up into a clear, concise case against Mr. Bush.Even his aides concede that Mr. Kerry can be slow in taking action, bogged down in the very details he is so intent on collecting, as suggested by the fact that he never even used the Medicare information he sent his staff chasing.
His attention to detail can serve him well on big projects, as it did when he sent aides scurrying across the country to find long-lost fellow Vietnam veterans who could vouch for his war record. But sometimes, his aides say, it is a distraction, as it was in early 2003, when they say he spent four weeks mulling the design of his campaign logo, consulting associates about what font it should use and whether it should include an American flag. (It does.)
His habit of soliciting one more point of view prompted one close adviser to say he had learned to wait until the last minute before weighing in: Mr. Kerry, he said, is apt to be most influenced by the last person who has his ear.
And whereas President Bush rarely makes management changes in his top circle of advisors, Kerry often does:
Mr. Kerry has also, in this campaign and earlier ones, repeatedly upended his staff, edging longtime advisers aside or dismissing aides outright when things threatened to run off the tracks. As a result, while some stalwarts from Mr. Kerry's first campaign have stuck with him since 1972, the senior staff of his campaign includes few people who call themselves his friends or are personally loyal to him.
And there is a hint of the Jimmy Carter micromanager management style in Kerry's approach:
Mr. Kerry's circle is as wide and changing as Mr. Bush's is constricted and consistent. He is always calling one more friend, and the campaign lineup has shifted so often that rumors of staff changes have become part of the daily gallows humor at Kerry headquarters on McPherson Square in downtown Washington.Instead of delegating authority to a single adviser, Mr. Kerry relies on different people for different advice. And, he made a point of saying in the interview, none of them have too much authority. "I am always in charge," he said.
And though he is constantly seeking out advice, Kerry does not always follow it:
For all his eagerness to seek advice, Mr. Kerry does not always take it.
After he delivered a 35-minute speech at the University of Pittsburgh last spring, Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania gently tried to reinforce a message Mr. Kerry's aides had been struggling to impart."I said I thought it was a little long for an outdoor speech," Mr. Rendell recalled. "My rule of thumb for an outdoor speech is 15 to 20 minutes."
That night at the Philadelphia Convention Center, Mr. Rendell prepped Mr. Kerry by saying the crowd was full of party veterans and urging him to keep his speech short. He talked for 32 minutes.
When Mr. Kerry arrived in Allentown early this month for a rally at the fairgrounds, Mr. Rendell did not even mention his 20-minute outdoor rule. "I've given up," Mr. Rendell said. "He listens sometimes, and he doesn't listen sometimes."
Mr. Kerry spoke for 38 minutes.
Posted by Tom at 6:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 26, 2004
2004 Weekly local football review
Texans 24 Chiefs 21. In the biggest upset of the young NFL season, the Texans took advantage of a Trent Green blunder that resulted in Marcus Coleman's 102 interception return for a touchdown to edge the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Kris Brown's 49 yard field goal with 2 seconds to play. The Chiefs really should have won this game, as they were about to go up 21-6 when Coleman picked off Green. But David Carr overcame another mediocre performance for three quarters and played well down the stretch along with receivers Johnson, Gaffney, and newcomer Derick Armstrong to pull out in impressive victory. The Texans have the Raiders and Vikings the next two weeks at home, and the Texans have a shot in both games if they can slow the offenses of the opposition as they did in the Chiefs game.
The Cowboys play the Redskins on Monday Night Football this week.
Texas 35 Rice 13. The Horns pounded the gritty Owls in what amounted to a scrimmage as Texas continues to prepare for their October 9th showdown in Dallas with OU. As of now, I don't think Texas can throw well enough to move the ball consistently on OU and the Horns do not seem strong enough defensively to keep OU's offense in a low scoring game. But Texas does have serious offensive talent in Young and Benson, so a surprise in Dallas is possible. However, at this point, I just don't see how the Horns win that game. OU plays their first tough game of the season this coming Saturday against Texas Tech, while the Horns tune up against Baylor. Rice goes to San Jose State this Saturday, which is a very winnable game for the Owls.
Miami 38 Houston 13. THe Coogs improbably made a game of it with the Hurricanes into the third quarter, but the Miami defense ultimately proved too strong for the Coogs to score enough points to really worry the Canes, although the Coogs beat the spread comfortably. As usual, Miami's defense is big-time good, but the Canes' offense is not National Championship caliber this season. The Coogs go to Memphis this Saturday, which is definitely no picnic. Expect the Coogs to be 1-4 after this Saturday.
The Texas Aggies were idle as they prepare for their Big 12 opener against Kansas State in College Station next Saturday.
Posted by Tom at 9:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Stros continue to tease
Raul Chavez improbably drove in a career-high five runs, Jason Lane went 3-for-4 with and scored twice, and Morgan Ensberg went 4-for-5 with two runs scored as the Stros hung on to their slim playoff hopes with an 11-7 win over the Brewers on Sunday afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. I also think that the fact that my nephew Richard -- a huge Stros fan -- attended the game gave the Stros some good karma that contributed to the victory.
Jeff Kent and Lance Berkman also homered for the Stros to keep the heat on the Cubs and the Giants, who both lost on Sunday. The Stros are 1 1/2 games behind the Cubs and one game behind the Giants with six games to go at the Juice Box against the Cards and the Rockies this week.
Tim Redding (5-7), the third of eight Stros pitchers, was credited with the win after throwing a scoreless fourth inning in relief of Carlos Hernandez, who lasted only 2 1/3rd innings and appears to be fading as the season closes. Brad Lidge once again slammed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth to secure the win.
It's been three weeks since my last periodic review of the Stros hitters' runs created against average ("RCAA") and the Stros pitchers' runs saved against average ("RSAA" and RCAA explained here), and the updated statistics reflect why the Stros have not been able to overtake the Cubs and the Giants in the NL Wild Card playoff race. Here were the Stros hitters' RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, through Saturday, September 25:
Lance Berkman 65
Carlos Beltran 26
Jeff Bagwell 13
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 4
Jeff Kent 1
Eric Bruntlett 0
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Jason Lane -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -12
Morgan Ensberg -13
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
Berkman and Beltran continue to be among the league leaders (Beltran's RCAA would be 41 if his Royals number is included), and Lamb has really had a remarkable season overall, but the rest of the Stros hitters are now lagging. After a brief surge that pumped his RCAA to 16 at one one point, Bags has cooled off to a 13, ensuring that this will be his sixth straight season of declining production and that he will officially become the most overpaid player in terms of current production in the National League.
Similarly, after being the club's third best hitter for much of the season, Bidg has faded badly down the stretch (he is in the midst of an 0-22 trough) as his RCAA has declined to 4. None of the other Stros regular hitters are even average National League hitters, and Ensberg, Viz, Chavez and Ausmus are among the worst hitters among regular National League hitters. The lack of run production during the just concluded road trip reflects this lack of punch in the Stros lineup.
After topping out at 6th during their late August-early September surge, the Stros have fallen back to 9th in RCAA among the 16 National League teams. The Stros (17) are comparable to the Cubs (18) in RCAA, but are way behind the Giants (85), who are riding the crest of another incredible season by Bonds (a remarkable 152 RCAA!).
However, the Stros fading hitting has been picked up by the Stros' pitching staff, which has improved its RSAA signficantly over the past three weeks. The following are the pitchers individual RSAA:
Roger Clemens 35
Brad Lidge 23
Roy Oswalt 20
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 5
Dan Wheeler 4
Chad Qualls 2
Darren Oliver 1
Russ Springer 1
Brandon Backe -1
David Weathers -1
Mike Gallo -3
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Chad Harville -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Carlos Hernandez -7
Pete Munro -9
Brandon Duckworth -10
Tim Redding -15
Clemens, Lidge and Oswalt all continue to be among the top pitchers in the National League, and Miceli has had a nice bump up since returning from the his bout with pink eye. Wheeler and Qualls have been unexpectedly solid contributors, and even Backe's -1 is remarkable given that he had never started a MLB game until a few weeks ago. Hernandez and Munro have faded, but that's to be expected of two pitchers that the Stros were really not counting on this season.
The Stros (45) remain in fourth among the 16 National League teams in RSAA,
but the Cubs (117) remain far ahead of the Stros in runs saved against average. Given the difference between the Stros and the Giants in RCAA, and between the Stros and the Cubs in RSAA, it really is remarkable and a testament to the Stros' resilience that they have remained in the Wild Card race all the way to the final week of the season. Based on the numbers, both the Cubs and the Giants should be well ahead of the Stros in the race.
Oh, and by the way, before you think about criticizing Gerry Hunsicker or Drayton McLane for the trades of Hidalgo and Dotel earlier this season. Please note that Hidalgo is currently sporting a negative 20 RCAA. That's worse than Chavez for goodness sakes and puts him among the ten worst hitters among regular players in the National League. I liked Hidalgo as much as the next fellow, but he's on the brink of playing himself out the league at this level of production.
And Dotel? His RSAA for the season is 7, which is about as good as Miceli, nowhere near Lidge's RSAA, and a significant drop in Dotel's production from the past three seasons. Inasmuch as it is always better to trade a pitcher before they bottom out so that you can get some real value for him (in this case, Beltran), Hunsicker and Drayton should be applauded for this move, too.
Roy O opens the Cardinal series on Monday night and Brandon Backe is scheduled to pitch the Tuesday game before the Rocket steps up on Wednesday. If the Stros can win the first two against the Cards, then this week could get interesting.
Posted by Tom at 8:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playing both sides against the middle
This Washington Post story reports on Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public relations consultant Michael Scanlon's efforts in 2002 working with conservative religious activist Ralph Reed to help the state of Texas shut down an Indian tribe's El Paso casino, and then Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon's incredible activities in persuading the tribe to pay $4.2 million to try to get Congress to reopen it once it had been closed. In the end, Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon failed to get the casino reopened. Here is an earlier post from Charles Kuffner on the early stages of the investigation into the matter.
H'mm, let's see now. Work the political process to get a casino closed so that you can then work the political process to get the casino reopened. Not bad work if you can get it.
Posted by Tom at 7:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 25, 2004
Going, going, gone!
The Brewers' Wes Obermueller pitched a six-hitter for his first career shutout and the Brewers for all practical purposes finished the Stros' fragile playoff chances with an 8-0 victory over the Stros on Saturday at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The Stros are now 2.5 games behind the Cubs and 1.5 games behind the Giants in the Wild Card playoff race with seven games to go. Folks, it's over.
It is fitting that this type of game was the one that sealed the Stros' fate. Except for the first month of the season and then the late August-mid September streak that got the Stros back in the playoff race, the Stros -- with the exception of Berkman and Beltran -- have struggled hitting generally and with power in particular. Five singles and a double off of Wes Obermueller is simply not going to win many games during a race for a playoff spot.
Pete Munro (4-7) gave up three runs -- two earned -- and five hits in four innings, and then Tim Redding came in and showed why he was demoted to AAA ball for much of this season.
Carlos Hernandez gets the start in the Stros' last road game of the season on Sunday afternoon against the Brewers. Then the Stros return to the Juice Box for three games series against the Cards and then the Rockies to finish the season that could have been.
Posted by Tom at 4:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perots hand reins of Perot Systems to next generation of management
In a surprise move, Plano, Texas-based Perot Systems Corp. announced Friday that Ross Perot Jr. had dropped CEO from his title at the Plano, Texas computer services firm and given up the founding family's operational control of the company.
Peter Altabef, 45, the company's general counsel, succeeds Mr. Perot as president and chief executive. Mr. Altabef has been a Perot Systems executive for 11 years, since joining the company from the Dallas office of law firm Hughes & Luce LLP, which has long been the Perot family's law firm. Del Williams, a longtime Perot family friend, succeeds Mr. Altabef as general counsel.
Mr. Perot, 45, will become chairman of the company, succeeding his father, Ross Perot, Sr., 74, who becomes chairman emeritus. The changes in top management allow the Perots to maintain input into the strategic direction of the company while leaving day-to-day management decisions to others.
Mr. Perot Sr. founded Perot Systems in 1988 after leaving his first company, Plano-based Electronic Data Systems Corp, which he sold to General Motors in 1984 in a $2.5 billion deal. Mr. Perot is generally credited with inventing the computer services industry.
Mr. Perot, Jr. is also chairman of the real estate investment company he founded, Hillwood Development Corp. He took the Perot Systems reins from his father in 2000 and earned generally positive performance reviews from on Wall Street.
Posted by Tom at 8:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fake Doc assaults female patients at Methodist
This Chronicle article reports that a man wearing hospital scrubs and a white lab coat sexually assaulted three female patients at Methodist Hospital in Houston's Texas Medical Center over the past two weeks.
Disguised as a medical professional wearing blue scrubs and a stethoscope, the man entered the rooms of female patients on Sept. 15, 19 and 20 and asked them several questions before saying he wanted to perform pelvic examinations on them. The women were sexually assaulted under the guise of the false exams, and each episode lasted about ten minutes.
Posted by Tom at 7:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 24, 2004
Stros keep scratching
Roger Clemens pitched 7 plus innings of five hit, shutout ball and the Stros finally scratched out a run in the top of the 10th to beat the Brew Crew 1-0 on Friday night at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
The win allowed the Stros to keep pace with the Wild Card playoff race leading Cubs, who beat the Mets. Things are looking increasingly bleak for the Stros as they remain 2 1/2 games behind the Cubs with 8 games to go. The Stros would have to win at least 7 of those final 8 games to win a playoff berth if either the Giants or the Cubs just split their final 8 games. Although the Stros have won 7 of their last 10 games, the 8-2 Cubs have gained ground on them and the 7-3 Giants have also kept pace with them.
Nevertheless, Clemens was magnificent again as he dominated the Brewers for the second time in a week. The Rocket struck out 12 while walking three before giving way to Lidge and Miceli, who closed the game without giving up a hit. The Stros finally broke through with the winning run in the 10th as pinch-runner Willie Taveras went from first to third on Carlos Beltran's bloop single and then scored on Bidg's sac fly.
After a lull of over a week now, the Stros need to start hitting the ball and scoring runs quickly as Pete Munro takes the mound in the Saturday afternoon game against the Brewers' Wes Obermueller(5-8/6.35). The Stros have penciled in Carlos Hernandez to start the Sunday afternoon game.
Posted by Tom at 10:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Decisions during the fog of war
Max Boot is a Senior Fellow of National Security Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations, and an award-winning author and former editorial features editor of The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Boot is an expert on national security policy and U.S. military history and technology.
In this LA Times op-ed, Mr. Boot gives an interesting historical perspective to the criticism levied against the Bush Administration recently for its tactical decisions in the war against the Islamic fascists:
Reading the depressing headlines, one is tempted to ask: Has any president in U.S. history ever botched a war or its aftermath so badly?Actually, yes. Most wartime presidents have made catastrophic blunders, from James Madison losing his capital to the British in 1814 to Harry Truman getting embroiled with China in 1950. Errors tend to shrink in retrospect if committed in a winning cause (Korea); they get magnified in a losing one (Vietnam).
Despite all that's gone wrong so far, Iraq could still go either way. (In one recent poll, 51% of Iraqis said their country was headed in "the right direction"; only 31% felt it was going the wrong way.)
Mr. Boot then reviews the blunders that two of our most revered Presidents -- Lincoln and FDR -- made in connection with their wars:
Lincoln is remembered, of course, for winning the Civil War and freeing the slaves. We tend to forget that along the way he lost more battles than any other president: First and Second Bull Run, Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville, Chickamauga…. The list of federal defeats was long and dispiriting. So was the list of federal victories (e.g., Antietam, Gettysburg) that could have been exploited to shorten the conflict, but weren't.As the Union's fortunes fell, opponents tarred Lincoln with invective that might make even Michael Moore blush. Harper's magazine called him a "despot, liar, thief, braggart, buffoon, usurper, monster, ignoramus." As late as the summer of 1864, Lincoln appeared likely to lose his bid for reelection. Only the fall of Atlanta on Sept. 2 saved his presidency.
Most of the Union's failures were because of inept generalship, but it was Lincoln who chose the generals, including many political appointees with scant military experience. He ultimately won the war only by backing Ulysses Grant's brutal attritional tactics that have often been criticized as sheer butchery.
FDR had some doozies, too:
Roosevelt had more than his share of mistakes too, the most notorious being his failure to prevent the attack on Pearl Harbor, even though U.S. code breakers had given him better intelligence than Bush had before Sept. 11. FDR also did not do enough to prepare the armed forces for war, and then pushed them into early offensives at Guadalcanal and North Africa that took a heavy toll on inexperienced troops. At Kasserine Pass, Tunisia, in 1943, the U.S. Army was mauled by veteran German units, losing more than 6,000 soldiers.The Allies went on to win the war but still suffered many snafus, such as Operation Market Garden, a failed airborne assault on Holland in September 1944, and the Battle of the Bulge three months later, when a massive German onslaught in the Ardennes caught U.S. troops napping.
Though FDR bore only indirect responsibility for most of these screw-ups, he was more directly culpable for other bad calls, such as the decision to detain 120,000 Japanese Americans without any proof of their disloyalty. Like Lincoln, who jailed suspected Southern sympathizers without trial, Roosevelt was guilty of civil liberties restrictions that were light-years beyond the Patriot Act. And, like Bush, Roosevelt didn't do enough to prepare for the postwar period. His failure to occupy more of Eastern Europe before the Red Army arrived consigned millions to tyranny; his failure to plan for the future of Korea and Vietnam after the Japanese left helped lead to two wars that killed 100,000 Americans.
Mr. Boot closes by placing the current criticism of the Bush Administation's tactical decisions in Iraq into historical perspective:
None of this is meant in any way to denigrate the inspired leadership of two great presidents. Both Lincoln and Roosevelt were brilliant wartime leaders precisely because they were able to overcome adversity and inspire the country toward ultimate victory with their unflagging will to win. That's what Bush is trying to do today.And, no, I'm not suggesting Bush is another Lincoln or Roosevelt. But even if Bush hasn't reached their lofty heights, neither has he experienced their depths of despair. We are losing one or two soldiers a day in Iraq. Lincoln lost an average of 250 daily for four years, Roosevelt 300 daily for more than 3 1/2 years. If they could overcome such numbing losses to prevail against far more formidable foes than we face now, it's ludicrous to give in to today's fashionable funk.
"Colossal failures of judgment" are to be expected in wartime; I daresay even John Kerry (whose judgment on Iraq changes every 30 minutes) might commit a few. They do not have to spell defeat now any more than they did in 1865 or 1945.
Posted by Tom at 6:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stros hang by a thread
After scoring five runs in the first 26 innings of their key series with the Giants, the Stros imporbably rallied for five runs in the ninth around Lance Berkman's three run yak to pull out a dramatic 7-3 win over the Giants in a wild one on Thursday night in San Francisco.
With the win, the Stros are 2½ games behind the Cubs, who took a half-game lead over the Giants in the National League Wild Card race by winning on Thursday. The Giants also dropped 1½ games behind Dodgers in the National League West Division race, which is about to get very interesting as the Giants play the Dodgers in six of their final nine games.
The home run was sweet for Berkman, who had several adventures while pursuing balls hit by Barry Bonds during the game. He badly misplayed Bonds' triple to right in the fifth and then fell on his backside while catching Bonds' drive in the seventh. Although Berkman's natural position is first base, he actually is an above-average outfielder. But man, he sure does look funny sometimes going after balls in the outfield.
Even Berkman's tater was unusual, as he lifted it high in the air and it barely reached the first row of seats in the elevated arcade on the right-field wall. Jason Lane then followed with an RBI pinch hit single and Raul Chavez's sacrifice bunt also plated a run. Carlos Beltran also busted out of a mini-slump with three hits for the Stros, who ended up with 10 hits despite only having five through eight innings against Giants starter Jason Schmidt.
The game got a bit chippy after Berkman's yak in the ninth when Giants reliever Dustin Hermanson and manager Felipe Alou were ejected after Hermanson hit Jeff Kent with the first pitch after Berkman's tater. Both clubs had been warned after a bench-clearing incident in the third, when Stros' starter Brandon Backe dusted off Bonds with a low pitch. Though there were no punches or ejections in that incident, Bonds went nuclear over the low throw, gesturing and yelling at Backe and nearly sticking his fingers in the mask of the home plate umpire.
Dan Miceli got the win by getting one out in the eighth, and Brad Lidge secured the win by striking out three in the ninth as a parade of six Stros relievers bailed starter Backe out after he could last just 2 1/3rd innings.
The Stros now go to Milwaukee for a weekender with the Brew Crew as the Rocket opens the series in going for this 19th victory. Pete Munro and then "who knows" follow in the next two games of the Brewers series before the Stros return to the Juice Box to close out the season with six games against the Cards and the Rockies.
Posted by Tom at 4:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 23, 2004
Best of Houston: Best Blog
The Houston Press names Charles Kuffner's Off the Kuff as Houston's best blog in its annual Best of Houston series. A worthy selection. Congratulations, Charles!
Posted by Tom at 8:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lehman Brothers settling Enron claims
The Wall Street Journal ($) is reporting today that brokerage house Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is close to a $220 million settlement to resolve a class-action lawsuit alleging that it and other big brokerage firms participated in a scheme with Enron Corp. executives to mislead shareholders. Lehman's propoed settlement follows a similar settlement in July in which Bank of America Corp. agreed to pay $69 million to settle similar allegations.
Bank of America and Lehman were underwriters in just a handful of Enron-related deals, so attorneys involved in the case believe their roles (and thus their settlement payments) are small in comparison to firms like Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. who did more Enron-related deals. Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are among the firms that have reserved billions of dollars to cover Enron-related exposure.
Posted by Tom at 7:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dan Duncan gives $35 million to Baylor College of Medicine
Kicking off a capital campaign, Baylor College of Medicine announced Wednesday it has received a $35 million gift from Baylor trustee and longtime Houstonian Dan Duncan to kick off the building of a new Baylor-operated clinic in the Texas Medical Center.
Mr. Duncan's donation will be paid over 10 years and represents about a third of the clinic's estimated cost. The clinic will be between 250,000 to 350,000 square feet and finished by late 2007 at a cost of about $90 million. The clinic will offer a full range of medical services from cardiology to ophthalmology, checkups, lab tests, and day surgery. The clinic will also allow patients to receive diagnosis and treatment in one place for conditions that cross specialties.
The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston earlier this month announced the purchase the Hermann Professional Building to use as its outpatient clinic and Methodist Hospital has plans to build such a clinic, a plan that was part of the reason that Baylor and Methodist ended their 50 year relationship earlier this year.
Posted by Tom at 6:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
New plan for the Astrodome
With the construction of the Juice Box and Reliant Stadium, one of the local political footballs that is lobbed around Houston from time to time is the following issue: What should we do with the Astrodome?
The local sports and convention corporation spends about $1.5 million annually to host a small number of events at the Astrodome and, even if the facility were to be mothballed, the corporation would spend $500,000 annually in maintaining it. Even razing it would be expensive, probably costing $10 million to $20 million. Moreover, Harris County still owes more than $50 million on bonds issued to pay for renovations at the Astrodome during the 1980s (remember Bud Adams?), and that debt will mature in 2012.
Consequently, The Astrodome is a knotty problem. It's expensive to maintain and, quite frankly, the County is not spending the money to maintain it properly. As a result, it is a dump at this point, and it looks haggard next to gleaming Reliant Stadium and the new Reliant Convention Center that are next door neighbors to the Dome in Reliant Park. Unless something can be done to make some other use of the grand ol' dame of Houston sports facilities, most Houstonians would rather see it blown up so that the space it uses could be transformed into more parking at Reliant Park.
However, this Chronicle article reports that the company looking to redevelop the Astrodome is planning on converting it into a 1,000 room convention hotel. The Astrodome hotel would be the second largest hotel in town, second to the 1,200 room Hilton Americas Convention Hotel next to the George R. Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston.
Although the Gaylord Texan Hotel in Grapevine near DFW Airport in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area is an existing prototype of what a retrofitted Dome could be, my sense is that this proposal for the Astrodome is not likely to occur without a substantial subsidy from Harris County. Consequently, let's see if the Chronicle or any other Houston news media discloses the true taxpayer cost of retrofitting and maintaining the Dome in comparison to alternative uses of the property. Given the Chronicle's abysmal performance in providing accurate information regarding the cost of the Streetcar Named Disaster, my expectations are not high.
Posted by Tom at 6:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Keegan on the Iraq War
John Keegan is England's foremost military historian and, for many years, was the Senior Lecturer at the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst. His book -- The Second World War -- is arguably the best single volume book on World War II and his book The Face of Battle is essential reading for anyone seeking an understanding of the history of warfare. His newest book -- The Iraq War -- was published earlier this year, and here is a post from June on one of Mr. Keegan's earlier op-ed's on the Iraq War.
In this London Telegraph op-ed, Mr. Keegan weighs in on the current situation in Iraq, which has been the subject of these Victor Davis Hanson and James Fallows posts from over the past several days. Essentially, Mr. Keegan notes that mistakes have been made, but points out that the situation could be far worse than it is.
Inasmuch as England's Prime Minister Tony Blair is currently bearing the same criticism over the Iraq War that President Bush is enduring from similar forces in the U.S., Mr. Keegan first addresses the motives behind such criticism:
It is difficult to understand the motives of those who are making life difficult for the Prime Minister. Some are legalists who continue to insist that the war was launched without justification in international law and wish to punish those responsible for their transgressions.T hey belong to that tiresome but increasingly numerous tribe who seem to think that men are made for laws and not laws for men. In any case, their arguments are contested, since many (including the Attorney General) hold that UN Resolutions 678, 687 and 1441 do in fact provide justification for the taking of military action against Saddam.
Some of Tony Blair's castigators are old-fashioned anti-militarists, usually with a strong anti-imperialist tinge, who deprecate the use of force as an instrument of foreign policy in almost any circumstances. They ignore the fact that Saddam was in breach of at least nine UN resolutions and flaunted his defiance. They also failed to explain why they in effect would support Saddam's continuance in power and the maintenance of his cruel and dictatorial rule over the Iraqi people.
Some anti-Blairites are, of course, simply playing internal Labour Party politics. They dislike the Prime Minister's unwritten contract with the middle classes, his refusal to institute progressive taxation and his disinclination to take back into public ownership any of the denationalised industries. They are usually anti-American as well, and take pleasure at the spectacle of President Bush's failure to translate the victory of 2003 into a successful transition to stable government.
Mr. Keegan then goes on to point out one of the big mistakes that the American military made during the occupation of Iraq:
It was a serious mistake to dissolve the Iraqi police force and to disband the Iraqi army. The reasons for doing so seem to have been based on distant memories of the occupation of Nazi Germany in 1945. The Ba'ath party was identified as the Iraqi version of the Nazi party and the view taken that no supporters of the old regime should be allowed to exercise power under a new regime.That policy may also have drawn on an idealistic but naive American belief in the existence of a potential democratic majority inside any repressed population, ready to elect an enlightened government if given the chance to vote. The effect in practice was to throw into unemployment hundreds of thousands of young Iraqi males, instantly discontented but skilled in the use of weapons. As almost every Iraqi male has access to weapons, the result was to make for disorder.
However, the disorder in Iraq is isolated to the Sunni Triangle, and Mr. Keegan notes that there is precedent in the Islamic world for this type of disorder:
The trouble that persists is centred on the so-called Sunni triangle, west of Baghdad, and is fomented by ex-Ba'athists who fear that properly conducted elections will exclude them from the position of dominance they were accustomed to enjoy in the Saddam years. Such elections are scheduled for January and that timetable is the spur to the current spate of bombings and shootings, which take as their principal targets those Iraqis who are brave enough to seek enlistment in the new police force and the new army.Other dissidents are Shia militants, many followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who fear a revival of Sunni dominance through American-sponsored governmental means and who, in any case, regard Western forms of democratic government as un-Islamic. Their aims, if not their beliefs, are supported by the foreign infiltrators, particularly from Syria but also from Iran and the anti-royalist regions of Saudi Arabia, who want nothing less than the restoration of the seventh-century caliphate and a return to the rule of God on earth.
Britain has been here before. In the 1920s, at the beginning of its exercise of the League of Nations Mandate over Iraq, it had to pacify a disturbed ex-Turkish Ottoman territory in which, as the first British governor complained, every man had a rifle. Then, as now, Shia and Sunni were at loggerheads and the whole Muslim world was disturbed by the fall of the caliphate, brought about by Kemal Ataturk's dissolution of Islamic rule in Turkey.
Nevertheless, Mr. Keegan notes that Iraq is a secular state and that its population is one of the best educated in the Middle East, and concludes by pointing out an essential truth regarding the calculated use of force:
When not silenced by the threat of violence from extremists and criminals, [most Iraqis] are also ready to say that they continue to regard the Western troops in their midst as liberators. Western so-called progressives who denounce the war of 2003 as a mistake are in fact illiberal and reactionary. They should be ashamed of themselves. Denunciation of war-making is much more fun than the recognition of the truth that the calculated use of force can achieve good. The United States and Britain must not be deterred.
Posted by Tom at 5:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stros are officially toast
Noah Lowry pitched a five hitter as the Giants won their ninth game out of their last 10 as they beat the Stros for the second straight game in San Francisco, 5-1.
The win allowed the Giants to remain a half game in front of the Cubs in the NL Wild Card playoff race and to pull within a half game of the Dodgers in the NL West Division. With the loss, The Stros fell three games behind the Giants and two and a half games behind the Cubs in the Wild Card race. For all practical purposes, the Stros late season surge to make the playoffs is over.
Roy Oswalt -- pitching despite a rib cage injury -- had won his last five decisions, but never got into a rhythm Wednesday night. He allowed 10 hits, five earned runs, struck out three and walked four in 5 2-3 innings.
Meanwhile, the Stros biggest bugaboo for most of this season -- lackluster hitting -- has reappeared with a vengeance during this series. Three runs on nine hits in two games is simply not going to get it done against the Giants.
The Stros take a flyer on Brandon Backe this afternoon against the Giants' Jason Schmidt, which looks like the mismatch of the week. Schmidt has not been as dominant over the past month as he has for most of the season, but the way the Stros are hitting, they are a convenient cure for Schmidt's problems. The Stros go to Milwaukee for a weekender with the Brew Crew after the game. When does OktoberFest begin?
Posted by Tom at 5:15 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 22, 2004
Ivan reappears in Gulf
Look who's probably coming to the Houston Metro area.
This is one resilient storm.
By the way, Check out these cool aerial before and after Hurricane Ivan photos.
Posted by Tom at 8:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Three DeLay aides indicted in Austin
A Travis County, Texas grand jury indicted three people closely linked to Houston-based U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay Tuesday along on charges of illegally using corporate money to help Republican Texas House candidates during the 2002.
The indictments focused on the DeLay-founded Texans for a Republican Majority Political Action Committee, which raised corporate money to help Republicans take control of the Texas House for the first time since Reconstruction. TRMPAC chief John Colyandro, fund-raiser Warren RoBold and DeLay political director Jim Ellis were the DeLay aides that were indicted. Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, who is a Democrat, said the investigation continues into possible campaign-finance violations by TRMPAC, the Texas Association of Business and the election of GOP Texas Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland. This was the third grand jury to hear the investigation and Earle disclosed the investigation will continue when a new grand jury is impaneled in October. He would not say whether DeLay is a target of the investigation.
TRMPAC raised almost $600,000 from corporations, which usually contributed at fund-raisers in which DeLay was the featured guest. The money was used to pay for additional fund-raising and political activity to help Republican candidates win about 20 House seats. Texas Ethics Commission opinions have said corporate money can be used only to pay a political committee's basic expenses, such as rent and utilities. However, TRMPAC supporters contend that the state law is trumped by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and applicable federal law at the time.
Posted by Tom at 6:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)
Giants trounce Stros
The Stros' chances for the Wild Card playoff spot were pushed to the brink of extinction Tuesday night as the Giants pounded the Stros decisively 9-2 in City by the Bay.
The loss puts the Stros two games behind the Giants in the Wild Card race, and 1.5 games behind the second place Cubs in that race. The loss stopped the Stros' four-game winning streak and also allowed the Giants to to close within 1½ games of the NL West-leading Dodgers, who lost 9-4 to the Padres. The Giants are now 23-8 against the Astros since the 2000 season.
After Bags and Berkman nailed back-to-back yaks in the Stros' first inning, Brett Tomko (11-6) dominated the Stros as he pitched 8 2/3rds innnings of four hit ball and struck out five and walked three.
The Giants responded to the Stros mini-uprising in the first with three runs in the bottom half on three hits. Incredibly, Stros manager Phil Garner elected to have Carlos Hernandez pitch to Bonds with runners on second and third, and Bonds' hard roller got past shifted shortstop Jose Vizcaino for an error and two runs. The Giants then batted around in their four-run fourth to put the game away.
Hernandez, who has not won in his last four starts, lasted only only 2 1/3 innings, which is his shortest outing of the season. Brandon Duckworth came in to pitch a couple of innings just to make sure that the Giants would put this game out of reach.
Sore-ribbed Roy O takes the mount tonight in a must win game for the Stros if they are to stay in the Wild Card race. If they can pull this one out, then they can try and figure out how Brandon Backe can outpitch Jason Schmidt in the Thursday afternoon game.
Posted by Tom at 5:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2004
James Fallows on the Iraq War
James Fallows is the National Correspondent for The Atlantic Monthly, where he has worked for more than twenty years. He is one of the most important and gifted investigative reporters of our time. During his long and storied career, Mr. Fallows has written extensively on such diverse topics as defense policy, economics, computer technology, politics, and immigration.
Over the past two years, Mr. Fallows has written a series of investigative articles in The Atlantic in which Mr. Fallows argues that the Bush Administration has squandered valuable resources and opportunities as a result of its drive to war against Iraq. In this Atlantic Monthly ($) interview, Mr. Fallows elaborates on his views regarding the mistakes that he believes that the Bush Administration has made in pursuing the Iraqi front in the war on Islamic fascism. It is a valuable and thought provoking piece from a serious reporter and thinker, and the following are several tidbits of the interview to arouse your curiosity.
On why Mr. Fallows contends that 2002 was the Bush Adminitration's "lost year:"
I was trying to get at what happened in one surprisingly short period, a little over a year. This was the time between America's immediate reaction to being attacked on 9/11, and its situation barely a year later, when so much of the treasure of the country�its military manpower, its government, its international influence�was concentrated on the single goal of removing Saddam Hussein.At the beginning of 2002, the U.S. had a vast range of resources and opportunities at its disposal. But over the course of that year, we lost or traded away a number of those, including: the ability to conceive of the terrorist threat in the broadest possible terms; the ability to draw upon deep reserves of international support; the ability to rely upon national unity; the ability to field a strong and agile military; and the ability to put government financial resources to effective use. It's the loss of all those opportunities that amounted to a lost year.
On dissent within the Bush Administration regarding the Iraq policy, and the failure of such dissent to be passed up to the President:
My own personal judgment is that for decades into the future, political scientists and historians will study the decision-making process that led to the Iraq war as a case study in failure. Or at least deliberative disfunction.You have a president who has made a point of neither inviting challenge on points of detail nor himself seeking out significant facts. John Kennedy was famous for picking up the phone and calling a third-level person in the State Department to ask, "What's really going on in Laos?" Bush has never shown an inclination to do that kind of thing and, in fact, has prided himself on not being bogged down by the details.
The result of all this is a kind of path of folly where the people who could say, "Wait a minute, is this a good idea?" were systematically excluded from the decisions, and a smaller and smaller group of people reassured each other on the basis of hope rather than evidence. As a procedural matter, it started with the president's own personality and intellectual traits and radiated out from there.
On the failures relating to the post-war occupation of Iraq:
Historically, a tremendous strength of the United States was that it would start thinking about what would happen after a war while the war was still going on. I mentioned in my previous article that by 1942, when the U.S. had barely gotten into the European war and was still on the losing side of the Pacific war, it set up a school of military government for postwar Japan and Germany. Within the military this same tradition was very much honored in the Iraq war. There were very, very careful efforts to plan for a postwar occupation. Through a combination of arrogance and failure of imagination, none of those plans was put to use until now, when they're suddenly being looked at. One of many things I still find puzzling is why the people who were most determined that the war succeed and that Iraq become a successful example were so totally uninterested in those efforts to make the occupation work. Of course I'm thinking of people like Paul Wolfowitz, Dick Cheney, Condoleeza Rice, and President Bush.
On whether America is a safer place as a result of the war in Iraq:
The most impressive thing to me in reporting this article is that there is virtually no dissent among national security professionals on the idea that invading Iraq has made America much less secure. I think that's an underappreciated point in the general public�to put it mildly. Except for those who have an occupational obligation to support the Administration's policy, everybody in the national security business says, "Of course, this has made the U.S. more vulnerable than it was before." Our army is more overextended and weaker; our allies are much less on our side; the source of opposition is much, much, much more intense than it was before. And we've lost time in dealing with Iran and North Korea.
Mr. Fallows is lengendary in media circles for the Pentagon sources that he developed during the weapons system battles of the early 1980's that challenged many of the Pentagon's conventional theories of how the American military should fight wars, and he continues to cull similar networks regarding his research on the Iraq war:
Two of the long pieces I've done in the last two years ("The Fifty-first State" and "Blind Into Baghdad") and one short one ("The Hollow Army") have brought a lot of people out of the woodwork. A lot of people have written to me after those articles appeared, saying, "Oh, you don't know the half of it." Email really is wonderful! There has also been a nucleus of people I've known for a long time as they've risen through various ranks of the military and the national security community. There has been a kind of ongoing conversation among these people about the way America responds to different foreign policy threats. The fact that these people proved to be right early on about Iraq has made their view increasingly interesting to me, so I've kept in close touch with them. There are networks of people who, as they gain confidence, know they can talk to you without having their views distorted or, in certain cases, their cover blown. You're able to have more sustained talks with them.
Mr. Fallows comments on criticism of Donald Rumsfeld's "light and fast" military, a theory that Mr. Fallows has reported on extensively for much of his reporting career:
What is behind Rumsfeld's "light and fast" military ethos? It seems like there's a lot of evidence that it doesn't seem to be able to stabilize a country in the long term. I'm just wondering, why are we still seeing troop reassignments in that same model?
The "light and fast" approach in general is a good one, and I think that part of Rumsfeld's reform doctrine has been a valuable part of the fight he's been trying to lead. The difficulty is that he has apparently cared more about winning that symbolic battle than thinking carefully about this particular war in this particular country�Iraq. It's certainly the case that these light, fast units are wonderful for destabilizing regimes or for lighting strikes. But the job in Iraq, as it was conceived by the administration, was a different one. It wasn't just about getting rid of Saddam Hussein and then leaving. It was about transforming the country altogether. That's a very different undertaking. Rumsfeld apparently has a longstanding disagreement with the Army establishment. He thought they were too slow in changing their ways. He let that spill over into ignoring, disregarding, and overruling their very prescient warnings about what it would take to actually run Iraq. In his past life, he would have ridiculed pointy-headed theorists, but his regime within the Pentagon has meant the triumph of the pointy-headed theorist over the people who actually have to occupy territory and pacify neighborhoods.
Mr. Fallows comments on the festering problem of Iran:
Iran is in a very, very unstable area. It's a major power in that area, and it's acquiring weapons while it's surrounded by also very well-armed powers. So there are a number of dangers: will Israel feel it needs to take preemptive action against Iran? Will the Saudis feel they need to get nuclear weapons if Iran has them? It's just an inherently unstable area compared even to Asia.
And on allegations that Mr. Fallows' series of articles on Iraq have been a partisan attack against the Bush Administration?:
What I've been doing over the last two years is looking at America's military and diplomatic response to the pressures it's come under since September 11. This article is a logical continuation of the other work I've been doing about how Iraq happened, how things could have gone better, how they could have gotten worse. Part of The Atlantic's historic role has been to explain, as best we can understand, the big issues of our time. During the Vietnam War, The Atlantic was not a partisan magazine, but it published an increasing number of articles saying, "How could this war have happened? How could it have unfolded in just this way? How is it likely to end?" The magazine's coverage of that war was not partisan, even if the governments then in power�first Democrats, then Republicans�were unhappy about some of its implications.As I said a while ago, I think the road to Iraq will be studied as a specimen of a failure of decision-making. And while that is a hostile judgment about the nature of the current administration, I'm not intending it as a partisan judgment. If Democrats had done t