2004 Weekly local football review

Texans 20 Jaguars 6. In their most impressive overall performance to date, the Texans beat the Jags decisively at Reliant Stadium in Houston. The Texans actually should have had another TD except that Jabbar Gaffney somehow fumbled the ball out of the endzone in the second quarter without being hit a moment before reaching the goal line. The Texans’ often shaky defense was outstanding in this game, holding the Jags to a paltry 39 yards rushing and about 3.5 yards per pass, and tacking on a TD on DeMarcus Faggins‘ fourth quarter interception return to ice the game. Meanwhile, David Carr had probably his best game as a pro, hitting on 26-34 throws for 276 yards, a TD, and most importantly, no turnovers (well, actually he did have a fumble, but the refs blew the call). The Texans are now an improbable 4-3, but face tough road games at Denver and then Indianapolis over the next two weekends.
Cowboys 31 Lions 21. Meanwhile, the our north, the Cowboys avoided sending the Big Tuna toward another coronary infarction with a win over the visiting Lions at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys finally found a run defense in this one, something that has been strangely absent this season for their usually formidable run defense. The 3-4 Pokes have a winnable game next Sunday at Cincinnati before returning home the following week for a showdown with the NFL East-leading Eagles.
Texas Longhorns 31 Colorado 7. The Horns’ increasingly formidable defense keyed this win, as Colorado could muster only 3 yards rushing and 221 yards total offense. The Horns still can’t pass a lick, which will be a problem against teams that have the defensive strength to stuff their rushing attack. However, a big difference in Texas this season is that their defense is good enought to win low scoring games. My friends in college coaching told me before the season that Dick Tomey would make a difference in Texas’ defensive unit, and I am now a believer.
Baylor 35 Texas Aggies 34. The Aggies almost laid an egg at home last week against Colorado, but they went ahead and laid a whopper in Waco against the Bears. Frankly, I was not surprised that Baylor gave A&M a game, as I had been on the sidelines of the Baylor-Iowa State game the weekend before and concluded then that the Bears — although undermanned at several line positions — were very well motivated and well-coached. The Ags put the ball on the ground a few times and, before you now it, the Bears determined that they could win the game. The decision of Baylor coach Guy Morris to go for two points after pulling to within 34-33 in the first overtime is one of those decisions that anyone who enjoys college football just has to admire. The 6-2 Aggies must now try to regroup before Oklahoma comes to College Station next Saturday night. Given the performance of the Aggie defense over the past two games, here is a betting recommendation on that game — take “the over.”
Houston 24 Tulane 3. The Coogs, who really have played a brutal schedule this season, finally caught a break and pounded a poor Tulane team at Roberston Stadium in Houston. This one was over by halftime as the Coogs coasted in the second half against either a dominating defensive effort or an imcompetent Tulane offensive performance, depending upon your viewpoint. The 2-6 Coogs have another winnable game next Saturday at home against 2-5 East Carolina.
Tulsa 39 Rice 22. The Owls’ once promising season has now officially fallen apart as they lost decisively to a bad Tulsa team in Tulsa. The 3-5 Owls now face Fresno State and the Mike Price-revived UTEP in two of their final three games. Those games could be very ugly for the Owls.
And remember to review Kevin Whited’s excellent weekly review of Big 12 games.

More business crime? Or just more prosecutions?

Readers of this blog know that I am critical of several recent “popular” prosecutions of business executives, and this NY Times article reports on the opinions of several experts who agree with my view:

“It is exaggerated to say that there is much more corporate malfeasance than in the past,” said Luigi Zingales, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago. “Malfeasance is just more likely to be revealed in recessions.”

“Prosecutors are going after white-collar crime with an eagerness we hadn’t seen before,” said James D. Cox, a professor of law at Duke University. “The state attorneys general realized that the governor-in-waiting, otherwise known as the attorney general, can get a lot of headlines.”

“In a bubble, people want to be lied to,” said John C. Coffee Jr., a professor at Columbia Law School. “It was more than a conflict of interest – securities analysts boosted stocks because people wanted them to.”

The article concludes by noting that the investing public’s attitudes often changes with which way the investing winds are blowing, and that such changes have an effect on the resulting prosecutions of business executives:

[W]hen the market went south, . . . faith in self-regulation took a beating, and new regulations like the Sarbanes-Oxley rules for corporate governance were passed. Suddenly less prosperous, Americans became much more willing to catch and punish abuses, and admiration for high fliers turned to suspicion.
“The social dynamics are sometimes more important than the law,” Mr. Coffee said.

And we should all be concerned about that. For when we allow the law to be twisted to appeal to the “social dynamics” of a particular situtation, then the law becomes just another convenient political tool and the rule of law erodes.
And for those who would respond — “So what? What’s the problem with eroding the rule of law a bit to nail some greedy business executives?” — I would remind them of Thomas More’s advice to his son-in-law-to-be Will Roper from A Man for All Seasons:

“Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned ’round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man’s laws, not God’s! And if you cut them down — and you’re just the man to do it, Roper! — do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?”
“Yes, I’d give the Devil the benefit of law, for my own safety’s sake!”

Was Abe gay?

This LA Weekly article reviews the late C.A. Tripp’s forthcoming book — The Intimate World of Abraham Lincoln (Free Press 2005) — in which the author concludes that there is a reasonable probability that Abraham Lincoln was gay. There actually has been speculation about Tripp’s conclusion in historical circles for quite some time. Indeed, I recall Gore Vidal stating in television interviews years ago that, in researching his 1984 historical novel Lincoln, he began to suspect that Lincoln was gay. Give the article a look, and then wait for the return volleys from the more traditional Lincoln biographers.

Enron’s mismanagement of trust

R. Preston McAfee is the J. Stanley Johnson Professor at the California Institute of Technology and formerly held the Murray S. Johnson Chair at the University of Texas at Austin. In this concise and insightful article for The Economists? Voice entitled The Real Lesson of Enron?s Implosion: Market Makers Are In the Trust Business, Professor McAfee explains in plain terms that, in the end, Enron’s demise was caused by a loss of trust:

How did Enron, a firm worth $60 billion, collapse over the discovery of a billion or so in hidden debt and fraudulent accounting? It didn?t. Or, at least, not directly. Market makers like Enron and Ebay are in the ?trust? business, just as banks and insurance companies are. Once trust was lost, the rest of Enron?s value quickly disappeared. The maintenance of customer trust is an important, and frequently mismanaged, aspect of business strategy.

Professor McAfee begins by pointing out that the disclosures of financial problems at Enron were insufficient along to bring Enron down:

At the time of its collapse, Enron?s market capitalization exceeded $60
billion, after growing at over 50% per year for a decade. The company collapsed after the revelation of $1.2 billion in hidden debt. This represented the visible portion of something over $8 billion in total hidden debts, a fraction of the value of the enterprise.
Moreover, the Enron business model provided real value to its customers, permitting them to contract over longer time horizons and to improve risk
management. So why did a company that was making a profit and providing real value to customers vanish so abruptly? Why aren?t the profitable lines of
business operated by Enron thriving today?

After pointing out that Enron was hardly along among major corporations in engaging in questionable accounting practices, Professor McAfee addresses why Enron’s irregularities caused a meltdown when others did not:

So why did Enron collapse, when other firms with questionable accounting survive? The answer is that Enron?s business-model was hostage to the trust that customers placed in Enron?s financial integrity. Once confidence in Enron waned, as I will explain, participants in Enron?s innovative markets were unwilling to engage in the purchasing or selling of a long-term contract that might not be fulfilled. Bid-ask spreads diverged, and Enron?s markets unraveled.

Read the entire piece. Inasmuch as the mainstream media struggles to keep something as seemingly broad as Enron’s demise in perspective, analysis such as this is quite helpful to a proper understanding of Enron’s failure.

Another financial institution settles in Enron class action

Confirming a deal noted here earlier, Lehman Brothers announced on Friday that it has agreed to pay $222.5 million to settle the the Enron class-action litigation against it in which the plaintiffs claimed that Lehman and other financial institutions helped Enron mislead investors.
The Lehman settlement is the third and the largest since the case was filed in late 2001 just before Enron went into chapter 11 during the first week of December 2001 amid public disclosure of hidden debt, inflated profits and accounting improprieties. As noted in this earlier post, Bank of America agreed to pay $69 million to settle similar allegations of liability for loss of value to securities it underwrote for Enron. The Enron class action plaintiffs also reached a $40 million settlement in July 2002 with Andersen Worldwide, the former parent company of the accounting firm Arthur Andersen.
Despite these settlements, the Enron class action plaintiffs continue to make overall settlement demands in the $30-40 billion range, so it appears that — based on the total sum of the three settlements to date — the plaintiffs’ lawyers have some work left to do with the remaining financial institution defendants in the case. Bank of America and Lehman were underwriters in just a handful of Enron-related deals, so attorneys involved in the case believe their roles (and thus their settlement payments) are small in comparison to firms like Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. who did more Enron-related deals. Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are among the firms that have reserved billions of dollars to cover Enron-related exposure.

Chess players — check this out

Thinking Machine 4. Play a computer that shows you the various moves that it is considering. Very, very cool.

You gotta love the European Tour

Not only do they kick the American team’s rear in the Ryder Cup, the European Tour is much more interesting than the usually staid American Tour.
First, this article reports on Seve Ballesteros going nuclear on a European Tour official, apparently over some rules controversy that occurred years ago. Are you taking your medication, Seve?
And this piece reports on the efforts of the first transsexual to attempt to obtain a card on the women’s European Tour. Does this portend a call for hormone analysis on competitors on the women’s tours?

Stros’ first off-season moves

In two moves that surprised no one familiar with the Stros, the club announced that it was exercising its option on the contract of outfielder Craig Biggio and declining its option on second basemen Jeff Kent. As a result, the Stros will pay Bidg $3 million next season and will pay Kent $700,000 rather than pick up the option to pay him $9 million for next season.
Bidg enjoyed his second straight solid season after several seasons of decline. After -11 RCAA/.734 OPS in 2002 and 1 RCAA/.763 OPS season in 2003, Biggio hit .469 SLG, .337 OBA, .806 OPS, 8 RCAA in 156 games in 2004 (RCAA, or “runs created against average” is explained here, courtesy of Lee Sinins). He has a .807 career OPS, compared to his league average of .756, and 346 RCAA in 2,409 games. Bidg is the first true Stro Hall of Fame candidate.
Kent is a player in decline, although he is still one of the better hitting second basemen in MLB. After 46 RCAA/.933 OPS and 13 RCAA/.860 OPS seasons, Kent hit .531 SLG, .348 OBA, .880 OPS, 12 RCAA in 145 games. He has a .858 career OPS, compared to his league average of .769, and 237 RCAA in 1,777 games. Kent also has a decent shot at the Hall of Fame.
Both of these moves were the right ones. The Stros are probably overpaying Bidg a bit, but he will likely be at least an average National League hitter next season and he brings valuable leadership to the ballclub. Bidg’s restructuring of his batting swing this season — at the ripe age of 38 — is one of the more remarkable athletic achievements that I have seen this year. That type of dedication and work ethic is worth paying a reasonable premium to retain.
However, Bidg in the outfield is causing some problems. Although he has gamely done whatever the Stros have asked him to do in the outfield, he remains a below average fielder with a far below average arm. Moreover, Bidg’s continued role as a starter is blocking the development of Jason Lane, who is ready for a starting role in the Stros’ outfield. If the Stros are able to retain Beltran‘s services (probably a longshot, but we can dream, can’t we?), then my sense is that the best role for Bidg next season would be as a fourth outfielder/backup second baseman utilityman.
On the other hand, not picking up the option on Kent’s contract was clearly the right move. Kent is simply no longer a $9 million a year player and the Stros can use the money saved on Kent’s contract to go after Beltran. Moreover, the Stros’ best minor league player this season — Chris Burke — is ready to take over at second base next season. Inasmuch as Kent’s lack of range at second may make a shift to third base a smart move in the autumn of his MLB career, the Stros should entertain negotiating a new contract with Kent in the same range as Bidg’s so long as he would agree to such a move. However, the Stros should have no interest in JK if he insists on remaining a second baseman.
Finally, my sense is that the Stros enter this off-season in decent shape. Although Berkman and Oswalt are both arbitration eligible and are due for big contract increases, and signing Beltran and Clemens will command big bucks, the Stros were able to ditch the big Hidalgo and Kent contracts this past season. Thus, the Stros have only the Bagwell contract as the last remnant of the big early decade contracts that are much higher than the existing market prices of player contracts.
Unfortunately, Bags’ contract is really out of whack — $39 million over the next three seasons: $15 million in 2005, $17 million in 2006, and a $7 million buyout of an $18 million 2007 contract. After his fifth straight season of declining offensive numbers, Bags is, at best, a $4-5 million a season player. Consequently, the Stros are overpaying Bags by probably about $25 million (or about $8.3 million per year) over the next three seasons.
So, what to do? Here’s my strategy. Either persuade Bags to restructure his deal to allow the Stros to pay it out over a longer term or trade Bags to an American League team and pay that club up to $20 million to take on Bags’ contract. Increase the team payroll to $100 million (certainly justified by the record attendance and popularity of the club) and dedicate $50 million of that payroll to signing Beltran, Berkman, Oswalt and Clemens. That leaves roughly $50 million for the other 21 roster players, who provide solid alternatives at each position with the exception of catcher.
If the Stros could pull the foregoing off, then my sense is that we could all feel pretty darn comfortable going into the 2005 season. At least so long as the Stros do not re-sign Ausmus as the starting catcher! ;^)

Nigerian Barge case goes to the jury

Final arguments ended today in the Enron-related criminal trial of four former Merrill Lynch executives and two former mid-level Enron executives in what has become known as the Nigerian Barge trial. Earlier posts on the trial may be reviewed here, here, here, and here.
As noted in the earlier posts, this has been a mess of a trial, which likely would have never been pursued at all had not the pariah known as Enron been involved. Remarkably, all of the main prosecution witnesses had copped pleas bargains with the government, were not primary players in the transaction that was at the heart of the trial, and could not personally implicate any of the defendants in the alleged wrongdoing. In a normal case, this ledger would be a prescription for acquittal of all the defendants.
However, the extraordinary public bias against anything having to do with Enron — a bias that the Enron Task Force repeatedly appeals to in its public statements — makes this a much tougher case to call. Add to that mix that three (former Merrill execs Bayly, Furst and Brown) out of the six defendants chose not to testify and there is a decent probability that the prosecution will obtain at least a few convictions out of the trial.
My bet is that Sheila Kahanek, the mid-level Enron accountant who testified, and William Fuhs, the lowest-level Merrill executive of the defendants and the only one to testify, will be acquitted. Daniel Boyle, the other former Enron executive on trial, has a decent shot at acquittal, but frankly did not do as good a job as either Kahanek or Fuhs on the witness stand. The other three Merrill execs — Messrs. Furst, Bayly, and Brown — did not testify and I believe have a higher risk of facing convictions. As Martha Stewart learned, juries in white collar criminal cases want to hear from the defendant.

Where is your polling place?

Tom Mighell points us toward My Polling Place, where you can input your address and zip code, and the site provides you the address of the polling place where you are to vote and a map to the the polling place. Very handy. Check it out.