Daily Archives: October 5, 2004

Stros 2004 Review: Stros-Braves Playoff Preview

Posted on by
Reply

The media is all aflutter with the fact that the Stros have never beaten the Braves in three previous playoffs (in 1997, 1999, and 2001), but that fact is irrelevant to the current series. Only five of the Stros’ 25 man roster were even on the 2001 club (Bags, Bidg, Ausmus, Viz, and Berkman) and the same roster turnover is true for the Braves. So, these are different teams at a different time, and what has occurred in the past is largely just the stuff of baseball myths that media types enjoy discussing while trying to figure out something perceptive to say.
In its essence, baseball is a simple game. While at bat, a club tries to score more runs than its opposition. While in the field, the club tries to get three outs each inning before the opposition scores as many runs as the club has scored. Thus, creating runs while hitting, and saving runs while pitching and playing defense, are the most important indicators of success in baseball. That’s why I like the statistics of runs created against average (“RCAA”) and runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA are explained here) — they are solid reflections of how a player and a team stacks up against an average player and an average team in their league at any particular point in time.
Based on RCAA and RSAA, the Braves should beat the Stros in this series, but not by much. Moreover, based on RCAA and RSAA, the Cubs and the Giants should have beaten out the Stros for the Wild Card Playoff spot, so the statistics are simply indicators of probable performance, not dispositive predictive tools. The nature of human performance generally and the charm of baseball in particular is the unpredictability of it all.
Since my most recent periodic review of the Stros hitters’ RCAA and the pitchers’ RSAA, the Stros overtook both the Giants and the Cubs in the NL Wild Card playoff race, and the clubs’ final RCAA and RSAA bear out what happened. Here are the Stros hitters’ final RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, through the end of the regular season:
Lance Berkman 69
Carlos Beltran 46 (28 with the Stros, 18 with the Royals)
Jeff Bagwell 17
Jeff Kent 12
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -4
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Morgan Ensberg -12
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
After falling back to ninth a week before the end of the regular season, the Stros’ seven game winning streak to close out the season was bolstered by another surge in hitting that resulted in the Stros finishing seventh out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA (50), while the Braves finished fifth (60 RCAA). Frankly, that means the teams are about equal in hitting, as the Stros RCAA would be 8 points higher than the Braves had Beltran played with the club the entire season.
Insmuch as the Stros were at 17 RCAA a week ago, their hitting over the last week of the season was flat remarkable. Berkman and Beltran concluded monster years, and Bags and Bidg rebounded nicely after their lull following the earlier 12 game winning streak. Moreover, after being essentially an average National League hitter for the entire season, Jeff Kent went nuclear in the last week of the season and improved his RCAA from 1 to 12. Jason Lane also improved notably over that time, raising his -2 RCAA to a plus 3 by the end of regular season.
Now, here are the Braves’ individual RCAA figures:
J.D. Drew 66
Eli Marrero 14
Marcus Giles 13
Chipper Jones 11
Johnny Estrada 9
Julio Franco 6
Charles Thomas 5
Adam LaRoche 2
Rafael Furcal 1
Damon Hollins 1
Andruw Jones 0
Dewayne Wise -5
Wilson Betemit -6
Nick Green -8
Jesse Garcia -9
Mike Hessman -9
Eddie Perez -11
Mark DeRosa -20
In effect, the Braves have an outstanding hitter in Drew, who is almost equal to Berkman, but then a big dropoff to their second best hitter — there is clearly no Beltran-caliber second best hitter on the Braves. That is an advantage for the Stros, but it is offset by the fact that the Stros are pulled down by the amount of play that deficient hitters Ausmus, Chavez, Viz, and Ensberg receive. Stros manager Phil Garner would be well-advised to play the much more productive Lamb during the playoffs over Ensberg.
The big difference in the Braves and the Stros is in pitching, where the Braves are stronger even though the Stros’ pitching staff is quite good. Here are the Stros pitchers’ RSAA:
Roger Clemens 32
Brad Lidge 26
Roy Oswalt 22
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Chad Qualls 3
Russ Springer 3
Dan Wheeler 3
Darren Oliver 1
Brandon Backe 0
Mike Gallo -2
Chad Harville -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Pete Munro -9
Carlos Hernandez -10
Brandon Duckworth -11
Tim Redding -15
The Stros are fourth among the 16 National League teams with a team RSAA of 46, which is the position that the Stros’ staff has been for most of the second half of the season. On the other hand, the Braves staff’s RSAA is a stout 89, which is second only to the Cubs’ staff that measured a heady 121 on the season (how again did the Cubs blow their lead in the Wild Card Playoff race?).
Clemens, Lidge and Oswalt are three of the best pitchers in baseball, and that’s a good nucleus for a short series. Miceli has bounced back well from his three week stint on the DL with pink eye, but beyond those four pitchers, the Stros are relying on a slew of young and not so young pitchers who are average or barely above average. Inasmuch as all of those pitchers seem to be pitching well right now (particularly the irrepressible Backe), the Stros may be able to bob and weave through a five game series with this bunch. However, in the longer seven game series in the LCS and the World Series, that lack of quality depth might get exposed. Unless, of course, these fellas simply step up on this national stage and continue to improve as they have over the past couple of weeks. I’m through doubting this bunch of competitors.
Here are the Braves pitchers’ individual RSAA:
Jaret Wright 21
Antonio Alfonseca 14
John Smoltz 14
Horacio Ramirez 13
John Thomson 13
Juan Cruz 12
Kevin Gryboski 8
Paul Byrd 5
Russ Ortiz 4
Roman Colon 2
Chris Reitsma 2
Tom Martin 1
Dan Meyer 1
Tim Drew 0
Mike Hampton 0
Sam McConnell 0
C.J. Nitkowski 0
Armando Almanza -2
Will Cunnane -4
Jose Capellan -6
Travis Smith -9
Jaret Wright, the Braves first game pitcher against Clemens, has pitched basically as well as Oswalt this season, so he is darn good pitcher. But interestingly, the rest of the Braves staff is essentially a bunch of well above-average and just above average pitchers, but none which had the seasons of Clemens, Lidge or Oswalt. Thus, the depth of the Braves’ pitching gives them an advantage, but the starting pitching matchups for the first three games favor the Stros:
Game One: Clemens (32 RSAA) v. Wright (21 RSAA)
Game Two: Roy O (22 RSAA) v. Mike Hampton (0 RSAA)
Game Three: Brandon Backe (0 RSAA) v. John Thomson (13 RSAA)
So, despite the Braves greater depth in quality pitching, this is really a very even series based upon the production of the respective teams’ players at this time. That’s why small adjustments such as playing Lamb over Ensberg and perhaps giving the emerging Lane some swings for Bidg could be the difference between winning and losing this series. Here’s hoping that Manager Garner can continue to pull the right strings that he so effectively selected during the drive for the Wild Card playoff spot.
Now, here are some other observations on the final statistics from the regular season:

Although the Cubs pitching was the best in the National League by far, their hitting went into the tank. As the Stros climbed from an RCAA of 18 to 50 in the last week of the season, the Cubs’ RCAA fell from 17 to 2 during the same week. Say bye-bye, Sammy!

Although the Giants’ 90 RCAA was stout and second best in the league behind the Cards’ astronomical 152, they lost the Wild Card Playoff race because of their lack of balance. The Giants’ pitching staff’s RSAA was only 16. And even the Giants’ RCAA is somewhat deceptive because of how top-loaded it is — the incredible Barry Bonds had a league-leading RCAA of 152 alone!

And let’s take a look at the key players that the Stros traded away either before or during this season:

Billy Wagner: 10 RSAA or slightly better than Dan Miceli.

Octavio Dotel: 3 RSAA or about like Chad Qualls.

Richard Hidalgo: -20 RCAA or worse then Raul Chavez (19). Ugh!

John Buck: -9 RCAA or about like Adam Everett.

Inasmuch as the Stros essentially got Beltran in return for Dotel and Buck, even a numbskull could evaluate that as a good trade. However, GM Gerry Hunsicker and Stros’ owner Drayton McLane both came under severe media criticism for the Wagner and Hidalgo trades, which got rid of huge salaries on players of declining production. Those critical media types owe Messrs. McLane and Hunsicker an apology, but I doubt that they will even get an objective evaluation of the trades in the mainstream media, much less an apology. So it goes.

Another Enron-related plea deal

Posted on by
1

Timothy DeSpain, Enron’s assistant treasurer from 1999 to 2002, was arraigned before a federal magistrate Tuesday and released on a $100,000 bond in connection with securities fraud criminal charges that he conspired with other Enron executives to present Enron’s financial picture in a false light to investors.
Late Tuesday, Mr. DeSpain entered into a plea agreement (his statement in support of the plea deal is here) in which he pled guilty to a single count of securities fraud in return for the Justice Department’s agreement to grant him immunity from prosecution for any other crimes that he committed at Enron or his subsequent employer so long as Mr. DeSpain truthfully testifies in Enron-related criminal trials and cooperates with the Justice Department’s on-going Enron criminal investigation.
According to the Justice Department criminal information pleading, Mr. DeSpain was in charge of keeping Enron in touch with credit-rating agencies and was involved in schemes intended to make Enron appear healthier than it was to pump and maintain investment-grade credit ratings. Low or below investment-grade credit ratings make it expensive for companies to borrow money, which was critical to Enron’s online energy trading business. Under his plea agreement, Mr. DeSpain alleged that, at the direction of Enron treasurers, he and others frequently misrepresented cash flow from operations in order to hide the nature of the transactions and benefit from the pumped-up credit rating.
Mr. DeSpain worked for three treasurers at Enron. Ben Glisan, who is currently serving a five year prison sentence after pleading guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire and security fraud in September 2003; Raymond Bowen, who resigned last week as Enron’s chief financial officer and treasurer and who has never been charged with a crime; and Jeffrey McMahon, who has never been charged with a crime, but whose name was recently mentioned by Michael Kopper during his testimony in the ongoing Enron-related Nigerian Barge criminal trial as Andy Fastow‘s proposed “fall guy” if Enron’s accounting treatment of the barge transaction were ever to fall apart.
Another transaction mentioned in Mr. DeSpain’s plea bargain involves Project Nahanni, an Enron deal that arose in 1999 when Enron was at least short of its cash flow target. Enron reported cash from the sale of Treasury securities as a result of Profect Nahanni, but Mr. DeSpain alleges in his plea bargain that he was aware of no business purpose for the transaction other than to create cash flow. As a result, Mr. DeSpain claims that Enron falsely advised credit agencies that Project Nahanni was the sale of a merchant asset rather than explaining the true nature of the transaction, which Mr. DeSpain contends would have undermined Enron’s credit rating.
Finally, in his plea bargain, DeSpain also alleges that he was involved in fraudulent conduct in connection with Enron’s “prepay” strategy where the company reported that it had sold an asset and generated cash, but did not disclose that it had incurred a future debt obligation. Mr. DeSpain alleges that Enron’s treasurers ordered him no to reveal to the credit rating agencies the true nature of the prepay transactions.
The Justice Department’s plea deal with Mr. DeSpain is consistent with the strategy for generating witness testimony that the prosecution is currently using in the Nigerian Barge trial. Four of the prosecution’s first six substantive witnesses in that trial intially denied any wrongdoing in connection with the transaction. However, after reaching plea bargains with the Justice Department, those witnesses now contend that they were involved in a coverup of an alleged “side deal” between Enron and Merrill Lynch. The prosecution contends that the alleged side deal, if disclosed to Enron’s auditors, would have required Enron to restate earnings that it booked from the transaction with Merrill Lynch.

R.I.P., Gordo Cooper

Posted on by
Reply

Gordon Cooper, one of the original Mercury Space Program‘s astronauts, died of natural causes on Monday at his home in Ventura, California at the age of 77.
Mr. Cooper’s death leaves just three of the original seven Mercury astronauts still living — John Glenn, the former senator from Ohio, Walter M. (“Wally”)Schirra, and M. Scott Carpenter. Virgil I. (“Gus”) Grissom was one of three astronauts killed in a 1967 fire inside an Apollo capsule on the launching pad, and Donald K. (“Deke”) Slayton and Alan B. Shepard died of natural causes several years ago.
As the pilot of the last Mercury mission, Mr. Cooper was the last American astronaut to fly alone in space. His mission on May 15-16, 1963 covered 34 hours and 20 minutes, which was more than all five of the previous Mercury flights combined. When the automatic system that was supposed to control the descent of his Mercury capsule failed, Mr. Cooper took control manually and made a bull’s-eye landing just 7,000 yards from aircraft carrier that picked up the Mercury capsules.
Mr. Cooper subsequently flew a long mission in the Gemini Space Program in which he demonstrated that a trip to the moon was feasible. Mr. Cooper’s second and last trip into space was on Gemini 5, a two-man, eight-day mission in August 1965 that set a space endurance record of over 190 hours.
Among the many firsts in spaceflight that Mr. Cooper achieved was that he was the first person to sleep in space (seven and a half hours like a log, he reported). He was also the first astronaut to fly twice, and the first American to be televised from space.
Mr. Cooper was also immortalized in film by former Houstonian Dennis Quaid‘s excellent portrayal of him in the wonderful 1983 film of Tom Wolfe’s equally superb book, “The Right Stuff.” For anyone who grew up during the early days of the American space program, “The Right Stuff” is a must see. I recently watched it again with one of my teenage sons, and we thoroughly enjoyed watching how the original astronauts took enormous risks to do something that is considered commonplace by many in my son’s generation. I also enjoyed sharing with him many of the stories of the original Mercury astronauts that are now an essential part of Houston folklore.
Rest in peace, Gordo Cooper.