Final arguments ended today in the Enron-related criminal trial of four former Merrill Lynch executives and two former mid-level Enron executives in what has become known as the Nigerian Barge trial. Earlier posts on the trial may be reviewed here, here, here, and here.
As noted in the earlier posts, this has been a mess of a trial, which likely would have never been pursued at all had not the pariah known as Enron been involved. Remarkably, all of the main prosecution witnesses had copped pleas bargains with the government, were not primary players in the transaction that was at the heart of the trial, and could not personally implicate any of the defendants in the alleged wrongdoing. In a normal case, this ledger would be a prescription for acquittal of all the defendants.
However, the extraordinary public bias against anything having to do with Enron — a bias that the Enron Task Force repeatedly appeals to in its public statements — makes this a much tougher case to call. Add to that mix that three (former Merrill execs Bayly, Furst and Brown) out of the six defendants chose not to testify and there is a decent probability that the prosecution will obtain at least a few convictions out of the trial.
My bet is that Sheila Kahanek, the mid-level Enron accountant who testified, and William Fuhs, the lowest-level Merrill executive of the defendants and the only one to testify, will be acquitted. Daniel Boyle, the other former Enron executive on trial, has a decent shot at acquittal, but frankly did not do as good a job as either Kahanek or Fuhs on the witness stand. The other three Merrill execs — Messrs. Furst, Bayly, and Brown — did not testify and I believe have a higher risk of facing convictions. As Martha Stewart learned, juries in white collar criminal cases want to hear from the defendant.