In two moves that surprised no one familiar with the Stros, the club announced that it was exercising its option on the contract of outfielder Craig Biggio and declining its option on second basemen Jeff Kent. As a result, the Stros will pay Bidg $3 million next season and will pay Kent $700,000 rather than pick up the option to pay him $9 million for next season.
Bidg enjoyed his second straight solid season after several seasons of decline. After -11 RCAA/.734 OPS in 2002 and 1 RCAA/.763 OPS season in 2003, Biggio hit .469 SLG, .337 OBA, .806 OPS, 8 RCAA in 156 games in 2004 (RCAA, or “runs created against average” is explained here, courtesy of Lee Sinins). He has a .807 career OPS, compared to his league average of .756, and 346 RCAA in 2,409 games. Bidg is the first true Stro Hall of Fame candidate.
Kent is a player in decline, although he is still one of the better hitting second basemen in MLB. After 46 RCAA/.933 OPS and 13 RCAA/.860 OPS seasons, Kent hit .531 SLG, .348 OBA, .880 OPS, 12 RCAA in 145 games. He has a .858 career OPS, compared to his league average of .769, and 237 RCAA in 1,777 games. Kent also has a decent shot at the Hall of Fame.
Both of these moves were the right ones. The Stros are probably overpaying Bidg a bit, but he will likely be at least an average National League hitter next season and he brings valuable leadership to the ballclub. Bidg’s restructuring of his batting swing this season — at the ripe age of 38 — is one of the more remarkable athletic achievements that I have seen this year. That type of dedication and work ethic is worth paying a reasonable premium to retain.
However, Bidg in the outfield is causing some problems. Although he has gamely done whatever the Stros have asked him to do in the outfield, he remains a below average fielder with a far below average arm. Moreover, Bidg’s continued role as a starter is blocking the development of Jason Lane, who is ready for a starting role in the Stros’ outfield. If the Stros are able to retain Beltran‘s services (probably a longshot, but we can dream, can’t we?), then my sense is that the best role for Bidg next season would be as a fourth outfielder/backup second baseman utilityman.
On the other hand, not picking up the option on Kent’s contract was clearly the right move. Kent is simply no longer a $9 million a year player and the Stros can use the money saved on Kent’s contract to go after Beltran. Moreover, the Stros’ best minor league player this season — Chris Burke — is ready to take over at second base next season. Inasmuch as Kent’s lack of range at second may make a shift to third base a smart move in the autumn of his MLB career, the Stros should entertain negotiating a new contract with Kent in the same range as Bidg’s so long as he would agree to such a move. However, the Stros should have no interest in JK if he insists on remaining a second baseman.
Finally, my sense is that the Stros enter this off-season in decent shape. Although Berkman and Oswalt are both arbitration eligible and are due for big contract increases, and signing Beltran and Clemens will command big bucks, the Stros were able to ditch the big Hidalgo and Kent contracts this past season. Thus, the Stros have only the Bagwell contract as the last remnant of the big early decade contracts that are much higher than the existing market prices of player contracts.
Unfortunately, Bags’ contract is really out of whack — $39 million over the next three seasons: $15 million in 2005, $17 million in 2006, and a $7 million buyout of an $18 million 2007 contract. After his fifth straight season of declining offensive numbers, Bags is, at best, a $4-5 million a season player. Consequently, the Stros are overpaying Bags by probably about $25 million (or about $8.3 million per year) over the next three seasons.
So, what to do? Here’s my strategy. Either persuade Bags to restructure his deal to allow the Stros to pay it out over a longer term or trade Bags to an American League team and pay that club up to $20 million to take on Bags’ contract. Increase the team payroll to $100 million (certainly justified by the record attendance and popularity of the club) and dedicate $50 million of that payroll to signing Beltran, Berkman, Oswalt and Clemens. That leaves roughly $50 million for the other 21 roster players, who provide solid alternatives at each position with the exception of catcher.
If the Stros could pull the foregoing off, then my sense is that we could all feel pretty darn comfortable going into the 2005 season. At least so long as the Stros do not re-sign Ausmus as the starting catcher! ;^)