Roy O mows down the Brew Crew

I cruised down to Minute Maid for the ‘Stros Friday night game against the Brewers, and I was treated to a masterful performance by Astros ace Roy Oswalt. Roy O shut out the Brew Crew on 3 singles, no walks, and 10 strikeouts as the ‘Stros rolled, 2-0. The ‘Stros didn’t hit much either and Roy O is a notoriously fast worker on the mound, so the game took only an hour and 58 minutes.
Brandon Duckworth gets his first start as an Astro in Saturday’s game as Andy Pettitte‘s replacement in the ‘Stros’ rotation. Note that most Saturday games this season will begin at 6:05 p.m., an hour earlier than other ‘Stros’ night games.

Jimy, why do you do the things you do?

The following is from Dayn Perry over at Baseball Prospectus about the rather odd moves of Astros’ manager Jimy Williams:

Jimy Fun
I got a little excited when I read a headline hinting that Astros manager Jimy Williams might use closer Octavio Dotel in non-save situations. . . . Then I read the article under the headline. It turns out Williams indeed plans on using Dotel in non-save situations, but those situations won’t be high-leverage spots in the middle innings; rather, it’ll be when the ?Stros have a four-run lead in the ninth. Yeah, a four-run lead. The war to maximize bullpen efficiency just endured its Tet Offensive.
According to . . . Keith Woolner, from 1980-1998, there was a 2.3 percent chance of a team surrendering four or more runs in any given inning. In other words, Williams is burning his best reliever–one of the game’s best relievers, in fact–in a situation where he has, on average, a 97.7 percent chance of success. At this juncture, Williams doesn’t have much confidence in his corps of supporting relievers, but this is precisely what he shouldn’t be doing. Let Dotel work some of the critical-mass innings that would otherwise be going to people like Ricky Stone; don’t exhaust him in gimme frames like the ninth inning of a four-run game.
Need more reasons to fear for Houston’s chances with Jimy at the switch? Well, Morgan Ensberg, who in a just meritocracy would be the Astros’ starting third baseman every day, was on the bench Tuesday night for the third time in eight games. This time, Jimy ramped up his Sacco-and-Vanzetti treatment by benching Ensberg in favor of Jose Vizcaino. Why? Yeah, I’m aware that Vizcaino was 9-for-10 in his career against Cards starter Jeff Suppan, but if Ensberg’s manager can find justification to bench him based on a 10-AB sample, then the bar for handy rationalization isn’t set too high. Ensberg deserves better.

As noted here earlier, Williams’ questionable handling of Ensberg last season may have cost the ‘Stros a Central Division pennant in the close race against the Cubs. I do not see the race being any easier this season, so here’s hoping that Williams does not let his stubborn adherence to baseball myths undermine his team’s chances for success.

VDH’s latest

Victor Davis Hanson’s latest piece on NRO is up. As always, it is worth reading in its entirety, and the following should pique your interest:

We are glad when dictators fall like Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam did. But we all prefer that they tumble spontaneously ? even though we accept privately that such is never the case in this present unipolar world, where all the smug talk about the U.N., EU, and multilateralism means absolutely nothing without the will and skill of the American military. So let us feel terrible about not preempting the genocide in Rwanda; let us hate ourselves for belatedly preempting in vain to save a quarter-million Bosnians and Kosovars in the Balkans; and then let us be ashamed even more that we finally really were preempting to take out a mass-murderer in Iraq ? and let us scream and slur about all this all at once!
Deep down we know that some sort of freedom is what most Iraqis want ? and what Islamic extremists in and outside Iraq most fear. But we wish its creation to proceed flawlessly without loss of blood or treasure. And at all times we insist on gratitude from those we aid, who are humbled, perhaps even furious, because we are giving them precisely what they seek ? but also what in the past they lacked the resources, skill, or courage to obtain on their own.

Sexual deception as a murder defense

The Curmudgeonly Clerk evaluates a novel defense theory in a California (where else?) case involving a murder of a transsexual.

New Fifth Circuit “fraud on the market” decision

The Fifth Circuit recently issued this opinion that examines the investor reliance presumption under the fraud on the market theory in securities litigation. Under that theory, investors are entitled to a presumption that they relied on a misrepresentation so long as the company’s shares were traded on an efficient market. An interesting twist to that theory is that the investors are not entitled to the presumption if they cannot establish that the misrepresentation actually affected the market price of the stock.
In this particular case, the plaintiffs apparently could not prove that the defendants’ positive public statements regarding the company (which turned out to be false) had increased the company’s stock price. Accordingly, the Fifth Circuit reasoned that the plaintiffs were entitled to the presumption of reliance only to the extent that they could tie the earlier false positive statements to the subsequent decline in stock price after the true negative public statements hit the media. The Fifth Circuit observed:

We are satisfied that plaintiffs cannot trigger the presumption of reliance by simply offering evidence of any decrease in price following the release of negative information. Such evidence does not raise an inference that the stock?s price was actually affected by an earlier release of positive information. To raise an inference through a decline in stock price that an earlier false, positive statement actually affected a stock?s price, the plaintiffs must show that the false [positive] statement causing the increase was related to the statement causing the decrease. Without such a showing there is no basis for presuming reliance by the plaintiffs.

This is yet another in a long line of Fifth Circuit decisions that require strong proof of reliance in fraud cases. Hat tip to the Rule 10b-5 Daily for the link to this decision.

Brew Crew clubs Stros

Astro-killer Ben Sheets mowed down the hometown boys for the second time in less than a week last night, 6-2. About the only positive aspect of the game for the Stros was Craig Biggio‘s 35th lead off home run in the first inning. Roy O tries to get the Stros back on track tonight in the series’ second game.

Be careful what you put in emails

That’s what former Royal Dutch/Shell executive Walter van de Vijver is saying these days.

EnCana to buy Tom Brown for $2.7 billion

This NY Times article reports on Toronto-based EnCana Corporation‘s $2.7 billion cash offer to buy Denver-based independent oil and gas producer Tom Brown, Inc., which the Tom Brown board accepted yesterday. The price includes $350 million in Tom Brown debt that EnCana will assume. EnCana is Canada’s largest producer of natural gas.

Continental and Southwest Airlines release quarterly earnings reports

Houston-based Continental Airlines narrowed its first-quarter loss, and Dallas-based Southwest Airlines scratched out a small profit as both airlines struggled with higher fuel prices.
Continental, the nation’s fifth-largest airline in terms of traffic, had a net loss of $124 million ($1.88 per share) in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $221 million ($3.38 per share) for the first quarter of last year. Revenue jumped 11% to $2.27 billion from $2.04 billion. Business travel remained weak, as only 32.7% of Continental’s revenue came from high-priced business fares, down 4.8 percentage points from a year earlier. Fuel costs at Continental’s mainline operation jumped 6.1% over the high prices airlines faced a year ago amid Iraq war preparations.
The combination of high fuel costs and low fares has made for a very difficult environment for airlines, Continental’s chairman and chief executive, Gordon Bethune, warned “This is not sustainable. This industry doesn’t work at $38-a-barrel oil.”
Southwest, the sixth largest U.S. airline, remained profitable through the combination of lower costs than competing airlines and strong hedges it had in place against higher fuel prices. First-quarter net income rose 8.3% to $26 million from $24 million a year earlier while earnings per share remained flat at three cents. Revenue rose 9.8% to $1.48 billion from $1.35 billion, and the company offset higher fuel costs with $63 million of commodities hedging gains. Southwest’s mix of full-fare traffic, typically business travelers, was 36%, about the same as in the year-earlier period.
In other Continental news, this NY Times article reports on Continental’s offer to buy Colombia’s financially troubled airline, Avianca.

Enron criminal trial postponement rejected

This Chronicle story reports on an interesting development in the Enron-related criminal case commonly referred to as the “Nigerian Barge case.” U.S. District Judge Ewing Werlein rejected one of the defendants’ request for a postponement of a July trial setting to allow the defendants additional time to sift through over 2 million pages of documents relating to the case. Consequently, for the first time since the controversial Arthur Andersen trial over two years ago, it now appears that the Enron Task Force is actually going to have to try a case.
The Nigerian Barge case is a particularly interesting one because it involves the government’s attempt to convict former Enron and Merrill Lynch executives of participating in a commercial transaction of the type that is common throughout the business world. The Enron Task Force contends that the entire Nigerian Barge deal in which Enron sold an interest in some barges off the coast of Nigeria to Merrill Lynch was a sham because Merrill Lynch would not have done the deal but for former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow‘s oral assurance that Enron would broker a sale of the barges for Merrill Lynch the following year. Fastow did indeed broker a sale of the barges the following year to one of his infamous “off-balance sheet partnerships” that hid roughly $40 billion of Enron debt.
According to the government’s theory, if Fastow’s oral assurance to Merrill Lynch was binding on Enron, then the sale of the barges was not a true arm’s length sale and, as a result, Enron’s accounting for the transaction as a true sale was fraudulent. Under the government’s theory, the fact that the written agreements entered into between Enron and Merrill Lynch contained a provision that made Fastow’s oral assurrance unenforceable is irrelevant. The contract was false and a part of the sham because Merrill Lynch would not have done the deal but for Fastow’s oral assurances.
Other than Mr. Fastow’s probable testimony of dubious credibility (he is cooperating with the government under a draconian plea bargain in an attempt to minimize his jail time to ten years), the government’s primary evidence of the alleged sham nature of the deal appears to be the “nervousness” that several Merrill executives openly expressed about the deal in emails prior to Merrill consummating the transaction. The government interprets that nervousness as evidence that the Merrill executives knew that the deal was a sham and that they could be caught participating in a fraud with Enron.
However, there is another (and in my mind, more reasonable) interpretation of Merrill’s nervousness regarding the deal — that is, they were really nervous about the deal, not because they thought it was a sham and a fraud, but because they knew that they could not rely on Fastow’s oral assurance that Enron would broker a sale of the barges the following year. Accordingly, their nervousness was that they might be making a bad investment that would result in having to hold the barges for a long, rather than short, term. Stated another way, the Merrill executives were nervous because they knew that this was a real deal in which the deal documents controlled the rights of the parties, and that Fastow’s oral assurances to get them to do the deal could not be enforced if Enron failed to live up to them.
The Chronicle also has this piece today on the Enron grand jury in Houston and its members’ cozy relationship with the Enron Task Force attorneys.