Stone and Castro: aging irrelevances

America’s most overrated movie director, Oliver Stone, has interviewed his old pal, Fidel Castro, for yet another mind-numbing documentary. The Miami Herald’s Glenn Garvin has written this piece on the latest Stone-Castro lovefest, and he captures the absurdity of the moment wonderfully:

Having revived the Western with Deadwood and the gangster genre with The Sopranos, HBO is taking on science fiction/fantasy. Looking For Fidel, Oliver Stone’s latest round of pattycake with Fidel Castro, resembles nothing so much as one of those old the-land-that-time-forgot movies, with a couple of lumbering stop-action dinosaurs wrestling harmlessly in front of a crowd of natives that’s trying hard not to look bored while it waits for evolution to take its course.
Looking For Fidel came about after Castro cracked down on dissidents last May, just as an earlier Stone documentary, Comandante, was about to debut on HBO. The network, embarrassed to be screening a kissy-face hagiography at the same time Castro was carrying out assembly-line executions and clapping his political opponents in prison by the score, ordered Stone to go back to Cuba and interview Castro about the crackdown.
The result is this collision of two aging irrelevancies, an antiquarian dictator who has already outlived his ideology and a once-talented director whose face is as puffy and dissolute as his films.
Stone occasionally prods Castro with an uncomfortable question about free speech or secret trials. But followups are non-existent, and mostly Stone allows the dictator to stage his own little set pieces for the cameras. In one, Castro generously meets with some accused hijackers, who with straight faces say 30 years in prison would be a generous sentence.
In another, he walks among adoring throngs of Cubans, whose burbling praise for the Revolution was so wildly delusional (they claim, among other things, that Cuba is the only country in the world where blacks are permitted to own businesses) that I had to wonder if they weren’t a deliberate attempt at sabotaging the documentary.
At times, it’s hard to tell who is less lucid, Stone or Castro.
Stone, halting and distracted, seems to be reciting a list he learned 20 years ago as he ticks off the Latin American countries supposedly less democratic than Cuba — including Brazil and Chile, both now governed by socialists.
Castro, meanwhile, suffers through some seriously senior moments. What are we to make of this impromptu little speech? ”Today, with a computer and a dozen compact disks, you can hold all the literature ever written,” he tells Stone. “So many things have changed. I do not know why the world has been making so much progress to end up in this. I am so sorry for the younger generation.”
Other times, his meaning is all too clear. If Cuba is poor, Castro insists, it’s because of the U.S. embargo. If people are so desperate to leave Cuba that they’ll fling themselves into the ocean on inner tubes, it’s because the United States encourages them. If any Cubans oppose him, it’s because they’re on the CIA payroll. Anything and everything that’s wrong in Cuba can be traced back to a policy made in Washington, never in Havana.
If it were otherwise, Castro swears, he would quit at once: ”If you can prove to me that under the current circumstances in Cuba, that would be the best thing for the country and the most useful thing for this country, I would be willing to step aside.” Yes, comandante, we have a word for that in English. We call it elections.

Hat tip to Virginia Postrel for the link to this hilarious review.

Corporate jets and shareholder returns

The following is the compelling synopsis of NYU finance professor David Yermack‘s paper, “Flights of Fancy: Corporate Jets, CEO Perquisites, and Inferior Shareholder Returns“, which will not go over well in certain boardrooms:

This paper studies perquisites of major company CEOs, focusing on personal use of company planes. For firms that have disclosed this managerial benefit, average shareholder returns under-perform market benchmarks by more than 4 percent annually, a severe gap far exceeding the costs of resources consumed. Around the date of the initial disclosure, firms’ stock prices drop by an average of 2 percent. Regression analysis finds negative associations between CEOs’ personal aircraft use and their compensation and percentage ownership, in accord with Jensen-Meckling (1976) and Fama (1980), but both relations have small magnitude.

Hat tip to Marginal Revolution for the link.

Does big government really stunt productivity?

This NY Times review reports on economic historian Peter H. Lindert‘s comprehensive analysis in his new book, “Growing Public” (Cambridge University Press), in which he contends that there is little empirical evidence to support the modern economic maxim that higher government spending or higher taxation necessarily deters economic growth.
In his new book, Professor Lindert examines, among other things, levels of taxes, public investment in education, transportation and health care, and social transfers such as Social Security. In so doing, he concludes that there is a contradiction between conventional economic wisdom and the evidence:

“It is well known that higher taxes and transfers reduce productivity,” he writes. “Well known – but unsupported by statistics and history.”
He finds that high spending on such programs creates no statistically measurable deterrent to the growth of productivity or per capita gross domestic product. As many nations in Europe built welfare states after World War II, they continued to grow faster than the United States, a nation with low social spending.

Read the entire review. As the United States confront the prospect of higher public spending on such programs as health care and education, Professor Lindert’s book appears to be a timely resource for addressing the economic and social implications of such spending.

Statistical analysis, NBA style

As noted in these earlier posts, the statistical analysis of baseball that Bill James invented over 20 years ago has changed the way baseball players are evaluated. Now, the success of Mr. James’ statistical analysis is being applied to improve the evaluation of basketball players.
This Washington Times article by Patrick Hruby reports on the work of Wayne Winston, an Indiana University professor, in applying sabermetric statistical analysis to National Basketball Association players. As with sabermetric evaluation of baseball players, Professor Winston’s evaluation of NBA players is often contrary to conventional (and usually wrong) viewpoints. About LeBron James, the 19 year old rookie who is the consensus choice for NBA Rookie of the Year, Professor Winston points out:

“Nobody should be talking about LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony,” he says. “They should be talking about Dwyane Wade. It’s a crime.”
“James rates as an average NBA player,” says Winston, a professor of decision sciences at Indiana University. “That’s good since very few rookies rate that high. But Wade’s a real impact player for Miami. He ranks 21st best in the league in terms of changing the chances of your team winning a game.”

Professor Winston’s evaluation program is called Winval, which rates and ranks the value of every NBA player. The system ignores traditional measures such as assists and rebounds to answer a more basic question: That is, does a team play better or worse when a particular player is on the floor? Winval’s ratings are weighted to take into account every player on the floor. For every time segment a player is in a game, the system tracks the other nine players on the floor, the length of the segment of play, and the score at the start and end of the segment.

“We don’t care if you never score a point,” Winston says. “If you make plays and help your team win, you don’t have to score.”

The result of all that math? Rankings that sometimes refute conventional NBA wisdom. High-scoring players like Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki and likely MVP winner Kevin Garnett are among Winval’s top 10. But so is San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen, an unsung defensive specialist who averages just 6.8 points a game.
On offense, Bowen makes the defending league champs less than a point a game better than an average NBA player. On defense, however, the Spurs are 10 points a game stingier with Bowen on the floor.
Sacramento’s Brad Miller and Denver’s Nene fare well for similar reasons, while the Nuggets’ Anthony, the Kings’ Mike Bibby and New York’s Stephon Marbury rate lower than you might expect.
“Marbury’s one of the top 10 players on offense,” Winston says. “Everybody thinks this guy is a great player. But when he’s on defense, he gives it all back.”

Winval even gives its users insight into the off-court lives of some of the players:

A few years back, Winston couldn’t figure out why Jason Kidd’s normally stellar rating had taken an abrupt nosedive. It later came out the All-Star guard had been involved in a domestic altercation with his wife.
“DeShawn Stevenson, on Utah last year, his rating was really bad for two weeks,” Winston says. “The next week, I found out he was suspended from the team. So we can spot these guys having problems. We don’t know if they’re marital, psychological, injuries. But if a guy starts playing [bad], we know it.

This is the type of research that might get me interested in the NBA again. However, the league continues to do well financially, so they could care less about my lack of interest.
Hat tip to the DA for the link to this interesting story.

Damages? We don’t need no stinkin’ damages!

This recent Fourth Circuit opinion concludes that a liability finding under Rule 10b-5 in a private securities case does not necessarily require an award of damages.
In this case, a short seller publicized negative statements about a company in which he held a substantial short interest. Shareholders of the company sued the short seller on the theory that his statements were material misrepresentations that defrauded the market and caused the company’s stock price to decline in value. The jury in the case returned a verdict that held the short seller liable, but awarded a big fat zero in damages. As one would expect, the shareholders on appeal argued that the jury finding of liability required the award of damages in some amount.
Noting that it was a case of first impression, the Fourth Circuit disagreed and noted that courts “often refer to the fact of proximately caused damage and the amount of proximately caused damage as involving separate, although related, inquiries.” Thus, the Court reasoned in affirming the lower court’s judgment of no damages, a jury could find that “(1) the plaintiff proved the defendant’s fraud constituted a substantial cause of plaintiff’s loss and so find the defendant liable but (2) the plaintiff failed to provide a method to discern, by just and reasonable inference, the amount of plaintiff’s loss solely caused by defendant’s fraud, and so refuse to award the plaintiff any damages.”
Hat tip to the 10b-5 Daily for the link to this case.

Golf rules in plain English

This Chronicle story reports on a new book, “The Rules of Golf in Plain English,” co-written by Houston personal injury lawyer Jeff Kuhn and Dallas-based legal writing guru Bryan Garner, which “brings order and clarity to the Rules of Golf as mandated by the United States Golf Association and the Royal and Ancient Golf Club.” Mr. Kuhn is a volunteer USGA rules official who got the idea of rewriting the Rules of Golf during one of Mr. Garner’s seminars on legal writing.
Perhaps Messrs. Kuhn and Garner will tackle the Internal Revenue Code next? ;^)

Tax Day thoughts

This Journal Economic Committee report does a good job of concisely explaining the progressive nature of the United States’ income tax system. The report contains this classic observation:

Collectively, the bottom 40% of earners thus pays little or nothing in income taxes. (Like all taxpayers, however, they do face the time, frustration, and monetary costs of preparing their taxes and complying with the complex tax code.)

While I have no problem with the progressive nature of the American tax system, the complexity of the system continues to be one of those outrageous aspects of American life that seems impervious to change. The Republicans occasionally talk about tax simplification, but then do nothing meaningful about it. The Democrats don’t even talk about it. Granted, the politics of simplifying the American income tax system is fraught with interest group obstacles. However, there are few political initiatives that would do more to improve Americans’ perception of their government than income tax simplification.
Meanwhile, Penn psychology professor Jonathon Baron and USC professor Edward J. McCaffery have published “Masking Redistribution (or its Absence)”, the abstract of which provides as follows:

Research has shown that people vary widely in their support or opposition to progressive taxation. We argue here that the perception of progressiveness itself is affected by the nature of the tax system and by the way it is framed, or presented. Experiments conducted over the World-Wide Web and using within-subject design demonstrate that subjects suffer from a range of heuristics and biases in understanding and supporting progressive or redistributive taxation. After reviewing some prior results, we report three new studies. Two of them indicate that people do not sufficiently appreciate the reduction of progressiveness that results from the use of tax deductions to partly reimburse private expenditures. The third indicates that people do not fully appreciate the reduction in progressiveness that results from cuts in government services.

Hat tip to the Law and Economics blog for the link to this article.

BioMed Central

My late father was a professor of medicine at both the University of Iowa and University of Texas medical schools. As a result of his influence, I have an interest in following developments in medical research.
I have been reviewing an interesting website for those interested in medical and science research. BioMed Central is an independent publishing house committed to providing immediate free access to peer-reviewed biomedical research. All the original research articles in journals that BioMed Central publishes are immediately and permanently available online without charge or any other barriers to access. This commitment is based on the view that open access to research is central to rapid and efficient progress in science and that subscription-based access to research is hindering rather than helping scientific communication.
BioMed Central is a creative and informative use of the Web to facilitate medical research. If you are interested in such research, I encourage you to take a look. Hat tip to Blog 702 for the link.