The following is from Dayn Perry over at Baseball Prospectus about the rather odd moves of Astros’ manager Jimy Williams:

Jimy Fun
I got a little excited when I read a headline hinting that Astros manager Jimy Williams might use closer Octavio Dotel in non-save situations. . . . Then I read the article under the headline. It turns out Williams indeed plans on using Dotel in non-save situations, but those situations won’t be high-leverage spots in the middle innings; rather, it’ll be when the ?Stros have a four-run lead in the ninth. Yeah, a four-run lead. The war to maximize bullpen efficiency just endured its Tet Offensive.
According to . . . Keith Woolner, from 1980-1998, there was a 2.3 percent chance of a team surrendering four or more runs in any given inning. In other words, Williams is burning his best reliever–one of the game’s best relievers, in fact–in a situation where he has, on average, a 97.7 percent chance of success. At this juncture, Williams doesn’t have much confidence in his corps of supporting relievers, but this is precisely what he shouldn’t be doing. Let Dotel work some of the critical-mass innings that would otherwise be going to people like Ricky Stone; don’t exhaust him in gimme frames like the ninth inning of a four-run game.
Need more reasons to fear for Houston’s chances with Jimy at the switch? Well, Morgan Ensberg, who in a just meritocracy would be the Astros’ starting third baseman every day, was on the bench Tuesday night for the third time in eight games. This time, Jimy ramped up his Sacco-and-Vanzetti treatment by benching Ensberg in favor of Jose Vizcaino. Why? Yeah, I’m aware that Vizcaino was 9-for-10 in his career against Cards starter Jeff Suppan, but if Ensberg’s manager can find justification to bench him based on a 10-AB sample, then the bar for handy rationalization isn’t set too high. Ensberg deserves better.

As noted here earlier, Williams’ questionable handling of Ensberg last season may have cost the ‘Stros a Central Division pennant in the close race against the Cubs. I do not see the race being any easier this season, so here’s hoping that Williams does not let his stubborn adherence to baseball myths undermine his team’s chances for success.