Enron’s mismanagement of trust

R. Preston McAfee is the J. Stanley Johnson Professor at the California Institute of Technology and formerly held the Murray S. Johnson Chair at the University of Texas at Austin. In this concise and insightful article for The Economists? Voice entitled The Real Lesson of Enron?s Implosion: Market Makers Are In the Trust Business, Professor McAfee explains in plain terms that, in the end, Enron’s demise was caused by a loss of trust:

How did Enron, a firm worth $60 billion, collapse over the discovery of a billion or so in hidden debt and fraudulent accounting? It didn?t. Or, at least, not directly. Market makers like Enron and Ebay are in the ?trust? business, just as banks and insurance companies are. Once trust was lost, the rest of Enron?s value quickly disappeared. The maintenance of customer trust is an important, and frequently mismanaged, aspect of business strategy.

Professor McAfee begins by pointing out that the disclosures of financial problems at Enron were insufficient along to bring Enron down:

At the time of its collapse, Enron?s market capitalization exceeded $60
billion, after growing at over 50% per year for a decade. The company collapsed after the revelation of $1.2 billion in hidden debt. This represented the visible portion of something over $8 billion in total hidden debts, a fraction of the value of the enterprise.
Moreover, the Enron business model provided real value to its customers, permitting them to contract over longer time horizons and to improve risk
management. So why did a company that was making a profit and providing real value to customers vanish so abruptly? Why aren?t the profitable lines of
business operated by Enron thriving today?

After pointing out that Enron was hardly along among major corporations in engaging in questionable accounting practices, Professor McAfee addresses why Enron’s irregularities caused a meltdown when others did not:

So why did Enron collapse, when other firms with questionable accounting survive? The answer is that Enron?s business-model was hostage to the trust that customers placed in Enron?s financial integrity. Once confidence in Enron waned, as I will explain, participants in Enron?s innovative markets were unwilling to engage in the purchasing or selling of a long-term contract that might not be fulfilled. Bid-ask spreads diverged, and Enron?s markets unraveled.

Read the entire piece. Inasmuch as the mainstream media struggles to keep something as seemingly broad as Enron’s demise in perspective, analysis such as this is quite helpful to a proper understanding of Enron’s failure.

Another financial institution settles in Enron class action

Confirming a deal noted here earlier, Lehman Brothers announced on Friday that it has agreed to pay $222.5 million to settle the the Enron class-action litigation against it in which the plaintiffs claimed that Lehman and other financial institutions helped Enron mislead investors.
The Lehman settlement is the third and the largest since the case was filed in late 2001 just before Enron went into chapter 11 during the first week of December 2001 amid public disclosure of hidden debt, inflated profits and accounting improprieties. As noted in this earlier post, Bank of America agreed to pay $69 million to settle similar allegations of liability for loss of value to securities it underwrote for Enron. The Enron class action plaintiffs also reached a $40 million settlement in July 2002 with Andersen Worldwide, the former parent company of the accounting firm Arthur Andersen.
Despite these settlements, the Enron class action plaintiffs continue to make overall settlement demands in the $30-40 billion range, so it appears that — based on the total sum of the three settlements to date — the plaintiffs’ lawyers have some work left to do with the remaining financial institution defendants in the case. Bank of America and Lehman were underwriters in just a handful of Enron-related deals, so attorneys involved in the case believe their roles (and thus their settlement payments) are small in comparison to firms like Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. who did more Enron-related deals. Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are among the firms that have reserved billions of dollars to cover Enron-related exposure.

Chess players — check this out

Thinking Machine 4. Play a computer that shows you the various moves that it is considering. Very, very cool.

You gotta love the European Tour

Not only do they kick the American team’s rear in the Ryder Cup, the European Tour is much more interesting than the usually staid American Tour.
First, this article reports on Seve Ballesteros going nuclear on a European Tour official, apparently over some rules controversy that occurred years ago. Are you taking your medication, Seve?
And this piece reports on the efforts of the first transsexual to attempt to obtain a card on the women’s European Tour. Does this portend a call for hormone analysis on competitors on the women’s tours?

Stros’ first off-season moves

In two moves that surprised no one familiar with the Stros, the club announced that it was exercising its option on the contract of outfielder Craig Biggio and declining its option on second basemen Jeff Kent. As a result, the Stros will pay Bidg $3 million next season and will pay Kent $700,000 rather than pick up the option to pay him $9 million for next season.
Bidg enjoyed his second straight solid season after several seasons of decline. After -11 RCAA/.734 OPS in 2002 and 1 RCAA/.763 OPS season in 2003, Biggio hit .469 SLG, .337 OBA, .806 OPS, 8 RCAA in 156 games in 2004 (RCAA, or “runs created against average” is explained here, courtesy of Lee Sinins). He has a .807 career OPS, compared to his league average of .756, and 346 RCAA in 2,409 games. Bidg is the first true Stro Hall of Fame candidate.
Kent is a player in decline, although he is still one of the better hitting second basemen in MLB. After 46 RCAA/.933 OPS and 13 RCAA/.860 OPS seasons, Kent hit .531 SLG, .348 OBA, .880 OPS, 12 RCAA in 145 games. He has a .858 career OPS, compared to his league average of .769, and 237 RCAA in 1,777 games. Kent also has a decent shot at the Hall of Fame.
Both of these moves were the right ones. The Stros are probably overpaying Bidg a bit, but he will likely be at least an average National League hitter next season and he brings valuable leadership to the ballclub. Bidg’s restructuring of his batting swing this season — at the ripe age of 38 — is one of the more remarkable athletic achievements that I have seen this year. That type of dedication and work ethic is worth paying a reasonable premium to retain.
However, Bidg in the outfield is causing some problems. Although he has gamely done whatever the Stros have asked him to do in the outfield, he remains a below average fielder with a far below average arm. Moreover, Bidg’s continued role as a starter is blocking the development of Jason Lane, who is ready for a starting role in the Stros’ outfield. If the Stros are able to retain Beltran‘s services (probably a longshot, but we can dream, can’t we?), then my sense is that the best role for Bidg next season would be as a fourth outfielder/backup second baseman utilityman.
On the other hand, not picking up the option on Kent’s contract was clearly the right move. Kent is simply no longer a $9 million a year player and the Stros can use the money saved on Kent’s contract to go after Beltran. Moreover, the Stros’ best minor league player this season — Chris Burke — is ready to take over at second base next season. Inasmuch as Kent’s lack of range at second may make a shift to third base a smart move in the autumn of his MLB career, the Stros should entertain negotiating a new contract with Kent in the same range as Bidg’s so long as he would agree to such a move. However, the Stros should have no interest in JK if he insists on remaining a second baseman.
Finally, my sense is that the Stros enter this off-season in decent shape. Although Berkman and Oswalt are both arbitration eligible and are due for big contract increases, and signing Beltran and Clemens will command big bucks, the Stros were able to ditch the big Hidalgo and Kent contracts this past season. Thus, the Stros have only the Bagwell contract as the last remnant of the big early decade contracts that are much higher than the existing market prices of player contracts.
Unfortunately, Bags’ contract is really out of whack — $39 million over the next three seasons: $15 million in 2005, $17 million in 2006, and a $7 million buyout of an $18 million 2007 contract. After his fifth straight season of declining offensive numbers, Bags is, at best, a $4-5 million a season player. Consequently, the Stros are overpaying Bags by probably about $25 million (or about $8.3 million per year) over the next three seasons.
So, what to do? Here’s my strategy. Either persuade Bags to restructure his deal to allow the Stros to pay it out over a longer term or trade Bags to an American League team and pay that club up to $20 million to take on Bags’ contract. Increase the team payroll to $100 million (certainly justified by the record attendance and popularity of the club) and dedicate $50 million of that payroll to signing Beltran, Berkman, Oswalt and Clemens. That leaves roughly $50 million for the other 21 roster players, who provide solid alternatives at each position with the exception of catcher.
If the Stros could pull the foregoing off, then my sense is that we could all feel pretty darn comfortable going into the 2005 season. At least so long as the Stros do not re-sign Ausmus as the starting catcher! ;^)

Nigerian Barge case goes to the jury

Final arguments ended today in the Enron-related criminal trial of four former Merrill Lynch executives and two former mid-level Enron executives in what has become known as the Nigerian Barge trial. Earlier posts on the trial may be reviewed here, here, here, and here.
As noted in the earlier posts, this has been a mess of a trial, which likely would have never been pursued at all had not the pariah known as Enron been involved. Remarkably, all of the main prosecution witnesses had copped pleas bargains with the government, were not primary players in the transaction that was at the heart of the trial, and could not personally implicate any of the defendants in the alleged wrongdoing. In a normal case, this ledger would be a prescription for acquittal of all the defendants.
However, the extraordinary public bias against anything having to do with Enron — a bias that the Enron Task Force repeatedly appeals to in its public statements — makes this a much tougher case to call. Add to that mix that three (former Merrill execs Bayly, Furst and Brown) out of the six defendants chose not to testify and there is a decent probability that the prosecution will obtain at least a few convictions out of the trial.
My bet is that Sheila Kahanek, the mid-level Enron accountant who testified, and William Fuhs, the lowest-level Merrill executive of the defendants and the only one to testify, will be acquitted. Daniel Boyle, the other former Enron executive on trial, has a decent shot at acquittal, but frankly did not do as good a job as either Kahanek or Fuhs on the witness stand. The other three Merrill execs — Messrs. Furst, Bayly, and Brown — did not testify and I believe have a higher risk of facing convictions. As Martha Stewart learned, juries in white collar criminal cases want to hear from the defendant.

Where is your polling place?

Tom Mighell points us toward My Polling Place, where you can input your address and zip code, and the site provides you the address of the polling place where you are to vote and a map to the the polling place. Very handy. Check it out.

Arnold Kling on the Four Myths of Social Security

In this Tech Central Station essay, Arnold Kling of EconLog does a good job of explaining four myths about Social Security: The Pension Myth, the Transition Cost Myth, the Baby Boomer Myth, and the Medicare Myth.

Reflecting on personal investing

Jonathan Clements has written The Wall Street Journal’s ($) Getting Going personal finance column since October 1994. In this week’s column, he reflects on ten years of providing personal finance advice, and his views are quite interesting and somewhat surprising for a columnist of a newspaper that advocates investment:

The fact is, over the decade I have written this column, my optimism has taken a beating. Yes, I still believe it is possible for ordinary investors to make decent money on Wall Street. But it has become increasingly clear to me that the odds are stacked against us.

First, Mr. Clements notes that gains in stock prices are almost certainly going to slow over the next several decades:

[T]he collapse in stock prices has made me look harder at historic market returns — and I don’t like what I see. According to Chicago’s Ibbotson Associates, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has clocked an impressive 10.4% a year since 1925.
A significant part of that gain, however, came from both rich dividend yields and rising price/earnings multiples. Today, with dividend yields so low and P/E ratios so high, long-run returns will almost certainly be lower — even assuming robust economic growth.
The nosebleed valuations are especially worrisome given the aging of the U.S., Europe and Japan. In 30 years, 20% of the U.S. population will be age 65 or older, up from 12% today. With fewer workers per retiree and massive government spending needed for Social Security and Medicare, we are going to face some grim financial choices.
Thanks to their younger population, developing nations should post faster economic growth. That is why I am a big fan of emerging-market stock funds. . . These funds, however, aren’t a sure thing, in part because the countries involved don’t offer the political stability and commitment to property rights that we enjoy in the U.S.

Indeed, when the costs attributable to investing are assessed, the potential gains look even slimmer:

If the markets’ raw results are a tad slim in the decades ahead, the gains may all but disappear after figuring in investment costs, taxes and inflation.
Suppose you own a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds that scores 6% a year. Knock off two percentage points for investment costs, and you will be down to 4%. Lose 25% to taxes, and that 4% will become 3%. Wouldn’t mind earning 3%? Problem is, that 3% could easily be devoured by inflation, leaving you with no real return.
Faced with such potentially meager results, the solutions are obvious enough, and I find myself advocating them ever more stridently. Want to make your investment portfolio grow? You need to save like crazy, make the most of tax-sheltered retirement accounts, trade sparingly and favor low-expense funds, especially market-tracking index funds.

After ten years of reviewing the travails of the individual investor, Mr. Clements is no fan of the Bush Administration’s proposal to privatize Social Security:

Unfortunately, during the past decade, my confidence in the investment acumen of ordinary investors has been shaken. I have come across too many serial blunderers, folks who jumped from technology stocks in the late 1990s, to bonds in the bear market, to real-estate investment trusts in 2004, always buying after the big money has already been made.
These investors have neither the education nor the emotional fortitude to invest sensibly. That is one of the reasons I believe replacing traditional company pension plans with 401(k) plans has been a mistake. Similarly, I fear that the privatization of Social Security will be a disaster unless it is accompanied by a slew of safeguards.

And perhaps most surprisingly, Mr. Clements levels his harshest criticism for the industry that makes its living off of advising people on how to invest:

Of course, wayward investors could be straightened out with sound investment advice. But that isn’t exactly a safe bet.
Over the years, I have met some fine brokers and financial planners. I have also, however, heard too many horror stories. As e-mail has spread, journalists have become more accessible to readers — and that means I get a steady stream of e-mails from aggrieved investors who were taken to the cleaners by unscrupulous advisers.
To make matters worse, Wall Street appears to have scant interest in fixing this mess. In theory, we should be entering a golden age of investment advice, with brokers and planners helping legions of aging baby boomers to manage their burgeoning nest eggs.
Yet rather than helping investors, Wall Street seems more intent on profiting from them. Brokerage firms could refuse to sell bad investment products and ruthlessly weed out rotten brokers. Instead, they appear content to let their brokers loose on the unsuspecting public. What about the legal problems that inevitably follow? That, it seems, is viewed as simply the price of doing business.

Read the entire column.

And if you want to know what I really think . . .

Writing in this National Journal op-ed, Stuart Taylor is not particularly impressed with the quality of the two major parties’ Presidential candidates this year:

One candidate is an intellectually shallow, closed-minded, strangely smirking, free-spending, hard-right culture warrior who combines smug ideological certitude with stunning indifference to facts and evidence, who is obsessed with shifting the tax burden from the wealthiest Americans to future generations, who claims virtually unlimited power to suspend constitutional liberties, who has alienated millions of America’s onetime admirers abroad, and who has never made a mistake he would not repeat.
The other is a both-sides-of-tough-issues, unlikable, aloof, cheap-shotting, free-spending political careerist whose domestic policies might make the Bush deficits even worse, whose Iraq policy shifts with every political wind, and who has long been close to his party’s quasi-pacifist, lawsuit-loving Left.

Ouch!