Monthly Archives: February 2008

BP’s PECOTA projection for the 2008 Stros

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Astros-Logo%20021807.jpgThe sabermetricians over at Baseball Prospectus have developed a statistical system for projecting baseball player performance called PECOTA, which is short for “Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.” PECOTA player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons and analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors. It is a remarkably accurate predictor of player performance.
BP annually prepares PECOTA projections on each Major League and minor league ballplayer, so it is a simple process to aggregate those individual numbers and project how each MLB team will do. BP’s projection for each MLB Division in the 2008 season is here ($), although you will have to subscribe to BP to review the entire PECOTA projections.
Not surprisingly, BP projects the Stros to finish 74-88 (or one game better than last season), good for fourth in the NL Central behind the Cubs, Brewers and Reds. PECOTA projects the Stros’ hitting to continue to be league-average with no meaningful improvement in the abysmal pitching that the club endured last season.
Well, at least we’ll have the Craig Biggio number retirement ceremony to look forward to. ;^)
By the way, Baseball Prospectus 2008, BP’s annual book that is the best source of knowledge about baseball, is scheduled to be published in the next week or so. If you enjoy following baseball, then I highly recommend it.

Local college hoops update

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Houston%20Coogs%20hoops.jpgNormally, when a team shoots 4-12 from the field on two-point goals in a college basketball game, that’s a pretty good indication that they were thoroughly throttled by the other team.
Unless, that is, the team shoots 18-43 on three-point goals during the same game. Which is what the Houston Cougars did this past Saturday night in pummeling SMU by 22.
The Cougars are now 19-5 (8-2 in Conference USA) and, absent a bad streak at the end of the regular season, appear to be a good bet to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 1991-92 season. The Coogs’ RPI has settled at 50 for the time being, which should be good enough to qualify for the NCAA tournament so long as the team maintains that RPI for the remainder of the season. Remarkably, it has now been almost a quarter century since the storied University of Houston basketball program last won an NCAA Tournament game.
Meanwhile, down on South Main, Chronicle columnist Jerome Solomon agrees with me regarding Rice basketball coach Willis Wilson. As noted in my earlier post, if Rice fires Wilson before he has had an opportunity to recruit players to — and have his teams compete in — a reasonably modern facility, then Rice will make the hypocrisy of former Rice football coach Todd Graham look benign in comparison. Besides, does the Rice Administration really want the Marching Owl Band to have an opportunity to comment on such an unfair firing?

Letterman on body painting

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David Letterman discusses body painting with Sports Illustrated cover girl Marisa Miller, who is a good sport about it all.

A lingering question about Refco

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refco%20021608.jpgSo, Refco’s former CEO and chairman Phillip Bennett pled guilty late Friday in a Manhattan federal court to fraud and other charges stemming from the 2005 collapse of the company (previous posts here). Peter Henning analyzes the plea here.
Bennett’s guilty plea appears to have been prompted by the plea deal last December of Santo C. Maggio, Refco’s former executive vice president, who was expected to testify against Bennett and the other Refco-related criminal defendants, former Refco executives Robert C. Trosten and Tone N. Grant, and former Mayer Brown partner and primary Refco outside counsel, Joseph P. Collins. Trosten and Grant’s case is scheduled to go to trial in March.
Although not entirely unexpected, Bennett’s guilty plea nevertheless leaves hanging the most intriguing question about the entire Refco affair:
Why on earth did Bennett ever take Refco public?
Let’s recall the story. Refco — a well-known Wall Street commodities and futures trading broker — filed a chapter 11 case in mid-October 2005 a week after the company announced that a $430 million debt owed to the company by a firm controlled by Bennett had been concealed and then repaid by Bennett. Refco’s board placed Bennett on indefinite leave and he was arrested on federal securities fraud charges shortly thereafter.

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A solid endorsement

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Harris%20County%20DA%27s%20office%20121508.jpgI’ve been enjoying the new local blog Life at the Harris County Criminal Justice Center, which, along with Mark Bennett’s blog, provides an interesting daily glimpse of life around the Harris County criminal courthouse. Given the twists and turns of the recent Le Affaire Rosenthal, both blogs have had interesting observations about the players.
In this recent post, the HCCJC blog makes the following common sense endorsement that I hope all Harris County voters will embrace:

In the 176th [Criminal District Court] Judical Race, there is no issue in picking who I recommend.
The race is between Michele Saterelli Oncken and incumbent Brian Rains.
Judge Rains has been on the bench ever since I’ve been a lawyer. And ever since I’ve been a lawyer he has had the reputation of being one of the rudest and most unkind judges on the bench since . . . well, Pat Lykos.
He claims that Michele Oncken is running against him “because I made her husband mad.”
If only it was that simple, Judge Rains. The fact is that you’ve upset everybody.

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Cooling heads over the Ashby high-rise

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Ashby%20high%20rise%20021508.jpgSo, Mayor White has figured out that his ostentatious initial position and statements regarding the proposed Ashby high-rise project weren’t such a good idea, after all:

The city risks exposing itself to a “takings lawsuit” if it passes a new restrictive ordinance after the Ashby developers submit permit applications or site plans, Festa explained. The developer could argue that the city changed the rules after the fact, taking away value from their property.
White acknowledged that problem Wednesday.
“There are some legal doctrines that you can’t change the rules in the middle of the game, once somebody has filed certain things,” he said.

Well, better late than never that Mayor White has realized that it’s not a good idea to change the rules in the middle of the game on businesspeople who are risking millions of dollars in developing real estate.
As noted earlier here, the key issue with regard to the Ashby high-rise is not increased traffic generated by the project, which is nominal. Rather, the key issue is the scale of the project in relation to the rest of the surrounding neighborhood. That’s what should be the focus of the debate over the new ordinance. Clear Thinkers’ favorite Houston urban policy wonk — Tory Gattis — agrees.

The Southwest Airlines culture

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Southwest_Airlines_logo-1.jpgWhile Continental Airlines continues its speculative merger dance with United Airlines, Southwest Airlines continues to be the most profitable company in the U.S. airline industry. This Jeff Bailey/NY Times article reports on the unique culture of Southwest that makes it an unlikely merger partner within the current round of consolidations in the airline industry. On the other hand, that special culture may also explain why Southwest is routinely the most profitable U.S. airline.

The DOJ loses another Enron criminal case

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Kevin%20howard021208.jpgAs expected, the Fifth Circuit denied the government’s appeal yesterday of U.S. District Judge Vanessa Gilmore’s decision to vacate the final count of the government’s odious five count conviction against former Enron Broadband CFO Kevin Howard. The Fifth Circuit’s decision affirmed Judge Gilmore’s decision to vacate the only remaining count of Howard’s conviction on which the prosecution had not already tossed in the towel. Ellen Podgor provides her usual excellent analysis of the decision.
With the Fifth Circuit’s decision, the stage is now set for the Department of Justice’s decision as to whether to try Howard for the third time on the same charges. One would hope that prosecutors would leave well enough alone, but don’t count on it. This is an Enron-related prosecution, after all.
Meanwhile, far from Houston in Hartford, the DOJ continues to assert essentially the same case against three former General Reinsurance executives and an AIG executive that has been thrown out against Howard and also the four former Merrill Lynch executives in the equally reprehensible Nigerian Barge case (see also here and here). The defendants represented their company in the negotiation of a legitimate business transaction that was evidenced by a written agreement that provides that all agreements or representations between the parties that are not contained in the written agreement are void and unenforceable. But that’s not what really happened, says the prosecution. The defendants entered into “secret side deals” that changed the risk allocation of the written agreement and eviscerated the company’s accounting treatment of the transaction. Pay a couple of witnesses to testify against the defendants by cutting favorable plea deals with them and “presto” — we’ve got a criminal case against some wealthy executives. Shattered lives, families and careers be damned.
This process is not one that a truly civil society would embrace.

The aftermath of the Clemens hearing

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clemens%20at%20congress.jpgMany folks have been asking me about my thoughts on the Roger Clemens saga, but I am so disappointed with the abysmal level of discourse regarding the Mitchell Commission Report and the issues involved with the use of steroids and other PED’s in society that I find it hard to drum up much enthusiasm for addressing it. Compare the discussion of the issues from this earlier post with this live blog analysis of the questions and answers from Clemens hearing and you will see what I mean. Sort of makes you want to whipsaw the committee in the same manner as this Colman McCarthy/Washington Post op-ed, doesn’t it? Art DeVany expresses similar sentiments.
Although I expressed reservations early on about the unconventional way in which Clemens’ legal team has been defending the matter, I don’t think the hearing measurably increased Clemens’ risk of being charged criminally. In fact, in an odd way, the hearing may have actually mitigated that risk somewhat.
McNamee came across as such a manipulator that my sense is that it’s doubtful that prosecutors would base a criminal case against Clemens primarily on McNamee’s testimony. Thus, unless investigators come up with a conduit of the PED’s who is willing to testify that the PED’s were delivered to Clemens and McNamee, Clemens may avoid criminal charges. He is certainly not out of the woods yet, but the Congressional hearing probably hurt him more in the court of public opinion than it did with regard to a potential criminal case (Update: Peter Henning agrees with me).
Nevertheless, I’m not yet ready to bet on that prediction. At least without long odds in my favor.

The charming Bobby Knight

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And Larry the Cable Guy’s crack on Coach Knight is pretty good, too.