The Wall Street Journal ($) reported yesterday afternoon that Houston-based Continental Airlines seemingly perpetual merger negotiations (see also here) with Chicago-based United Airlines are accelerating for a variety of reasons. A Continental-United deal is contingent on Northwest Airlines’ ongoing merger negotiations with Delta Airlines because Northwest currently owns the right to block a Continental merger. However, that right evaporates if Northwest merges with Delta.
Whether all of this is the product of rational thought or irrational exuberance remains is another issue. As noted recently here and many other times on this blog, the airline industry is a mess overall and combining two large airlines does not necessarily provide any meaningful competitive benefit. Continental performed in the middle of the airline industry last year, doing reasonably well financially and operationally, but ranking ninth-worst in terms of frequency of bumping customers from flights. Only Delta was worse at bumping customers among the major carriers.
United, on the other hand, has been a basket case for years. In its first full year of operations after emerging from its long bankruptcy case, United’s earnings were among the worst in the industry last year (only JetBlue’s were worse). Moreover, United struggled with operations, ranking seventh in on-time percentage after a disastrous December that included numerous cancellations and delays. Meanwhile, United’s rate of customer complaints was second-worst, ahead of only US Airways, as Professor Bainbridge would attest.
So, what to make of all this? At this point, it’s hard to say, other than management of both airlines are probably betting that the biggest airlines have the best chance of survival when the inevitable shakeout of the industry finally is allowed to happen (chronic reorganizations of distressed airlines have delayed that process up to now).
Color me as skeptical.