Stros 2006 Review, Part Nine

biggiomissing.jpgAs I’ve noted before, it’s funny how our expectations for the Stros color the way in which we view the team at a particular stage of the season.
After essentially playing themselves out of the National League playoff race in the eighth 1/10th segment of the season, the Stros (71-74) have actually played quite well over their ninth segment of the season, going 10-6 and completing a segment with a winning record for just the third time this season. However, as the Stros enter their final 17 games of the season, the general consensus in the local media is that the Stros have not been playing well and certainly not as well as last season at this time when they were also contending for the NL wildcard playoff spot.
Indeed, taking a look at where the Stros stood last season at this time is instructive as to where the Stros find themselves this season. After 145 games last season, the Stros were 77-71, which means that the team had won only six more games than the current club at the same stage of the season. That 2005 team was plagued by the same chronic hitting woes that the current Stros team is experiencing — that club’s team runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) after 145 games was within a run or two of being the same as this season’s club (-38).
Meanwhile, the 2005 club’s pitching staff — led by the extraordinary starting trio of Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt — had an outstanding 97 runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) after 145 games. This year’s staff currently has a very respectable 54 RSAA (third in the NL), but that performance is only about half as good as last season’s pitching staff’s incredible performance after 145 games.
Thus, expectations aside, the reality is that this season’s club has not improved in hitting from last season’s club and thus, the roughly 43 fewer runs saved by the 2006 pitching staff in comparison to the 2005 staff is the difference between the 2005 club winning six more games than the 2006 club at the same stage of the season. That difference — as well as a couple of nagging injuries to Pettitte and Clemens down the stretch of this season — is more than enough to prevent this fragile Stros club from making the push necessary to contend seriously for a playoff spot.
Despite the disappointment of missing the playoffs after the past two magical seasons and flirting with a sub-.500 season for only the second time in the past 14 seasons, the Stros did have a couple of good things happen since the review of the club’s 8th segment of the season:

The Stros locked up Roy Oswalt (3.06 ERA/33 RSAA (tied for 4th in RSAA in Major League Baseball); and
Lance Berkman (57 RCAA (tied for 4th in Major League Baseball)/.414 OBA/.616 SLG/1.030 OPS) officially became the 2nd best hitter in Stros history and, with his tater in yesterday’s win against the Cardinals, became the first Major League Baseball switch-hitter since the late Mickey Mantle to hit 40 or more home runs in multiple seasons (Mantle’s stats for his 18-year career were 1099 RCAA/.421 OBA/.557 SLG/.977 OPS).

The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:

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Houston’s nature trail

buffalo bayou.jpgOne of the things about Houston that has surprised many guests of mine over the years are the beautiful nature areas that have been preserved in city’s core. One of the best of such areas is the Memorial Park area, which includes the Houston Arboretum & Nature Center, the 155-acre nature sanctuary on the banks of Buffalo Bayou literally within the shadows of the West Loop skyscrapers. Chronicle columnist Doug Pike, who is one of the local newspaper’s fine contingent of writers on hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities, provides this column today in which he reviews the types of wildlife that visitors can see while hiking through the arboretum. If you have never visited th arboretum (and even many longtime Houstonians have not), I highly recommend it. Just watch out for the snakes and the feral hogs!

Olis Resentencing Hearing Concludes

After a hearing in state court yesterday concluded, I was able to attend the conclusion of the resentencing hearing for Jamie Olis in U.S. District Judge Sim Lake’s court (Tom Fowler’s Chronicle article on the hearing is here). My sense is that the hearing went reasonably well for Olis.

Judge Lake allowed Olis to make a personal statement to him during the hearing, and Olis’ statement was equally heartfelt and heart-wrenching.

Olis, who was not allowed even to look at his delightful and dedicated family in the courtroom during the two-day hearing, choked back tears as he told Judge Lake that he was sorry that he did not — as a young, mid-level executive at a big, publicly-owned company — question the judgment of proceeding with a transaction (Project Alpha) for which he was convicted, and that he was hugely frustrated that he could not do anything about it now. Although Judge Lake is notoriously hard to read, he was clearly moved by Olis’ statement.

In questioning the attorneys during final argument, Judge Lake was primarily interested in the general deterrent effect of the sentence.

Olis defense attorney David Gerger contended that the prison time that Olis has already served and the other ramifications from his conviction (fines, enjoined from serving as an officer of a public company, public humilation, etc) are more than a sufficient general deterrent for other mid-level executives at publicly-owned companies from engaging in wrongdoing, and that the lengthy sentence being proposed by the prosecution is really just a thinly-veiled deterrent for business executives from exercising their right to assert their innocence at trial.

Unfortunately, not mentioned during the hearing was the hugely detrimental effect that the Olis sentence could have on beneficial risk-taking that creates jobs for communities and wealth for shareholders.

Meanwhile, Judge Lake — who clearly has a sound understanding of the sentencing issues — zeroed in on the prosecution by asking why the government was asking for a sentence of a mid-level company executive who did not personally profit from the transaction for which he was convicted that is equal to or harsher than the recent sentences levied on several more senior executives who actually looted their companies while committing wrongdoing.

In what I thought was the defining moment of the portion of the hearing that I attended, the lead prosecutor could not answer Judge Lake’s pointed question and blathered on about how it was important to make Olis a poster boy for what can happen to a business executive who engages in corporate crime. There is no question that Judge Lake noticed the evasiveness of the prosecution on that key point.

So, what will Judge Lake do?

Given that he originally levied the 24+ year sentence on Olis and generally has a reputation of levying stiff sentences, a couple of fellow courtroom spectators predicted afterward that Judge Lake would come back with a 10-12 year sentence.

However, I know that Judge Lake is a man of compassion and grace, and the circumstances of Olis’ case simply do not call for a sentence of that length.

Thus, I’m betting that the sentence lands in the 4-7 year range, with the hope that it will fall into the lower part of that range and that Judge Lake will allow a portion of the sentence to be served in home detention or at least near Olis’ wife and young daughter. Judge Lake stated at the end of the hearing that he will likely issue his ruling late next week, so stay tuned.