As I’ve noted before, it’s funny how our expectations for the Stros color the way in which we view the team at a particular stage of the season.
After essentially playing themselves out of the National League playoff race in the eighth 1/10th segment of the season, the Stros (71-74) have actually played quite well over their ninth segment of the season, going 10-6 and completing a segment with a winning record for just the third time this season. However, as the Stros enter their final 17 games of the season, the general consensus in the local media is that the Stros have not been playing well and certainly not as well as last season at this time when they were also contending for the NL wildcard playoff spot.
Indeed, taking a look at where the Stros stood last season at this time is instructive as to where the Stros find themselves this season. After 145 games last season, the Stros were 77-71, which means that the team had won only six more games than the current club at the same stage of the season. That 2005 team was plagued by the same chronic hitting woes that the current Stros team is experiencing — that club’s team runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) after 145 games was within a run or two of being the same as this season’s club (-38).
Meanwhile, the 2005 club’s pitching staff — led by the extraordinary starting trio of Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt — had an outstanding 97 runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) after 145 games. This year’s staff currently has a very respectable 54 RSAA (third in the NL), but that performance is only about half as good as last season’s pitching staff’s incredible performance after 145 games.
Thus, expectations aside, the reality is that this season’s club has not improved in hitting from last season’s club and thus, the roughly 43 fewer runs saved by the 2006 pitching staff in comparison to the 2005 staff is the difference between the 2005 club winning six more games than the 2006 club at the same stage of the season. That difference — as well as a couple of nagging injuries to Pettitte and Clemens down the stretch of this season — is more than enough to prevent this fragile Stros club from making the push necessary to contend seriously for a playoff spot.
Despite the disappointment of missing the playoffs after the past two magical seasons and flirting with a sub-.500 season for only the second time in the past 14 seasons, the Stros did have a couple of good things happen since the review of the club’s 8th segment of the season:

The Stros locked up Roy Oswalt (3.06 ERA/33 RSAA (tied for 4th in RSAA in Major League Baseball); and
Lance Berkman (57 RCAA (tied for 4th in Major League Baseball)/.414 OBA/.616 SLG/1.030 OPS) officially became the 2nd best hitter in Stros history and, with his tater in yesterday’s win against the Cardinals, became the first Major League Baseball switch-hitter since the late Mickey Mantle to hit 40 or more home runs in multiple seasons (Mantle’s stats for his 18-year career were 1099 RCAA/.421 OBA/.557 SLG/.977 OPS).

The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:

As noted in the earlier segments, the Stros’ main problems are easy to identify. A lineup that includes Ausmus (-35 RCAA/.306 OBA/.282 SLG/.588 OPS), Everett (-27 /.288/.352/.640), Taveras (-15 /.333/.343/.676), and now Biggio (-14 /.310/.424/.734) is destined to be a far below-average National League hitting lineup. Those four players have created an astounding 91 fewer runs than merely average National League hitters would have generated in those five spots in the lineup. In fact, had those five players been just half as bad in hitting as they have been this season, the Stros would have gained back almost all of the 43 runs that this club’s pitching staff has failed to save in comparison with last season’s staff. If that had occurred, then this club likely would have won at least the six more games that the 2005 club had won at this time of the season and certainly would be right in the middle of — if not leading — this year’s race for a playoff spot.
Which brings us to the Stros’ biggest problem, which is the club’s icon and its probable first Hall-of-Famer, Bidg. Although Bidg was able to push his freak-of-nature, 40-year old physique to solidly above-average hitting seasons during the 2004 and 2005 seasons, the bottom has fallen out this season as he has generated a -15 RCAA over the past three months. Moreover, unlike light-hitting teammates Taveras and Everett who at least field their positions in an above-average manner, Bidg is now a serious defensive liability, and the club’s indulgence of Bidg’s below-average performance has had the serious side-effect of stunting the development of such younger players as Chris Burke (5/.359/.443/.802), Jason Lane (-8/.328/.404/.732) and even 2B Brooks Conrad (.334 OBA/.534 SLG/.868 OPS/24 HR’s) at AAA Round Rock. None of those players will ever be good as Bidg was during his prime, but each of them would probably produce at a superior level to Bidg at this stage of their respective careers.
Nevertheless, as the Chronicle’s John Lopez pointed out earlier in the week (and Larry Dierker chimes in today), the Stros are unlikely to let Bidg go after this season when he will be only 80 hits or so shy of 3,000 hits. That’s understandable given Bidg’s stature on the team and in the community, but everyone should understand that there is a real cost to the Stros indulging yet another below National League-average hitter in the club’s lineup. Not only is there the impact of blocking younger players’ development, the Stros will have to allocate Bidg at least 375-425 plate appearances next season for him to reach 3,000 hits, assuming that he continues hitting at the same level that he is currently hitting. That’s more plate appearances than a part-time starter would receive, so the Stros appear to be locked into having yet another position manned by a below average National League-hitter next season.
Meanwhile, next season’s pitching staff will likely lose Clemens (2.27 ERA/23 RSAA) and Pettitte (4.37 ERA/3 RSAA), and will not have the rehabbing Backe (3.77 ERA/4 RSAA), but the Stros appear to be better prepared to rebound from those losses internally than in the hitting department. Young pitchers Hirsh (6.10 ERA/-5 RSAA), Albers (4.35 ERA/0 RSAA), Nieve (4.06/5 RSAA) and Buchholz (5.95 ERA/-18 RSAA) all appear to have the potential to be at least average National League pitchers, and the minor league system contains several other pitchers who will be maturing into MLB-grade over the next couple of seasons. Although Lidge‘s (5.21 ERA/-5 RSAA) deterioration this season has been troubling, Wheeler (2.51 ERA/14 RSAA), Qualls (4.10 ERA/4 RSAA) and the rest of the bullpen have performed at an above-average National League-level this season and will form a sound core for the bullpen next season. Thus, despite the Stros’ chronic hitting woes, the club’s pitching remains in reasonably good shape and will likely continue to be the focal point of the club as it attempts to continue the success of the Biggio-Bagwell era during the Berkman-Oswalt era.
So, what should the Stros do? Clearly, going forward with Ausmus, Everett, Taveras and Bidg in the lineup next season is a sure sign of surrender, so let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Taveras and Lidge probably have the most trade value and both of them should definitely be offered in trade this upcoming off-season for more hitting, probably a hard-hitting corner outfielder. Other than Berkman, Oswalt and most of the pitching staff, almost everyone else on the Stros roster should be expendable for the right price, but the problem is that light-hitting players such as Ausmus and Everett — and inconsistent ones such as Ensberg (12/.389/.458/.847), Huff (-6/.332./455/.787), Lamb (6/.359/.485/.844) and Lane — are hard to move in trade. However, given the $40+ million in payroll that will be freed by the expiration of the Bagwell, Clemens, Pettitte and Preston Wilson contracts, the Stros also have the financial flexibility to be in play for a free agent acquisition or two, which may be a more practical alternative than attempting to parley their below average-hitters into a productive trade. Although free agents are usually overpriced in comparison to home-grown talent and thus, tend to be riskier, the Stros appear to have little choice at this point than to take those risks to bolster a hitting attack that has now been in decline for the sixth straight season.
The Stros have an interesting schedule over their final 1/10th segment of the season as they meet the playoff-contending Phillies, Reds and Cardinals in 11 of their final 17 games. That should give Stros GM Tim Purpura and his staff a glimpse of how the club stacks up against the current National League playoff clubs, which should help Stros management finalize their plan on retrofitting the Stros to regain playoff status for next season. Look for my final Stros review of the season shortly after the end of the regular season, at which time I will grade each of the Stros players based on primarily objective critieria, rather than the subjective criteria preferred by some members of the local media.