Well, as predicted here, the Stros (26-37) have come back down to earth after their recent winning streak with losses on Monday and Tuesday to the Orioles (38-26).
However, Baseball America gives Stros fans a reason for some optimism during this dreary season as it lists three Stros minor leaguers (including the top 2) in its current Top 20 Prospect Hot Sheet (paid subscription required):

1. Troy Patton, lhp, Astros (Low Class A Lexington)

It’s now been over a month since Patton gave up a run, spanning 32 innings over five starts. During that span, he’s limited opponents to 10 hits and six walks, while striking out 35. In 12 starts on the season, he’s allowed zero earned runs seven times, one earned run three times, and two earned runs twice.

2. Hunter Pence, of, Astros (Low Class A Lexington)

Pence went on the DL last night with a strained quadriceps, and that’s the only thing that will slow down the minor league home run leader with 23, who has slugged 16 home runs in his last 32 games.

17. Jimmy Barthmaier, rhp, Astros (Low Class A Lexington)

As if Patton and Pence (The Killer Ps –we’re copyrighting that and printing t-shirts as you read this) aren’t enough, Barthmaier gives the Legends three Hot Sheet designations by tossing 19 scoreless innings in his last three starts and lowering his season ERA to 1.77.

Patton — the Tomball, Texas High School star who the Stros plucked in last year’s draft from the clutches of the University of Texas baseball squad — had his scoreless streak ended last night at 32 innings as he lost his first game of the season.
Nevertheless, with studs such as this in the lower minors, and several solid pitching prospects at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, it sure would be nice if the hitting-deprived Stros would try to cobble together a trade for this potentially very good hitter, who is currently on the outs with his pitching-deprived club. Looks as if the Stros might be able to negotiate a real bargain.

With a quintessential Roy O quickie-shutout (1 hr., 50 min.) on Sunday afternoon, the Stros (26-35) continue to show signs of life by winning their fifth straight game and seventh out of their least ten. The streak has allowed the Stros to exit last place in the NL Central for the first time in awhile by a half-game over the pitching-challenged Reds (26-36).
Although a good stretch tends to generate good vibes, the Stros are still a seriously flawed team. Through 38% of the season, the Stros are dead last in Major League Baseball in hitting by scoring -73 fewer runs in their 62 games than an average-hitting National League club would have scored in those games. That -73 runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) is almost 33% worse than any other club in Major League Baseball. Only 3B Morgan Ensberg (8 RCAA/.283 AVE/.374 OBA/.551 SLG) has a well above-average RCAA, although 1B Lance Berkman (-4/.252/.341/.369) and RF Jason Lane (-4/.232/.278/.442) have started to swing the bat better recently and appear prepared to raise their RCAA well into positive numbers.
So, the Stros are still in the market for at least one and possibly two above-average hitters. The remainder of the team, with the possible exception of the fading Biggio (1/.276/.330/.477), appears destined for below average RCAA, and even if Lane and Berkman improve into positive RCAA figures, the Stros as a team will probably end the season somewhere around -60 to -80 RCAA without acquisition of a hitter or two. My sense is that the Reds — with their glut of hard-hitting outfielders and pathetic pitching — remain the logical trade partner for the Stros.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching remains rock solid. The staff’s aggregate runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) is 7th of the sixteen National League staffs, and would be at the top of the league if not burdened by the poor individual RSAA’s of their trio of fifth starters — Duckworth (-12), Astacio (-14) and Rodriguez (-9). Inasmuch as the Rocket continues to lead the National League in RSAA, Roy O is in the top 10 of RSAA for NL pitchers, and Pettitte, Lidge and Wheeler all have solidly positive RSAA’s, the Stros pitching staff will likely keep the club in most games despite the lack of hitting.
The Stros are on the road this week against the Orioles (36-26) and the Royals (20-41) before returning home next week for a six game homestand against the Rockies (20-40) and the Rangers (33-28). In the meantime, keep your eye on the trade wire.

Although the Stros (20-32) just won their second series in a row, the club is clearly not a contender for a playoff spot this season. Thus, Houston Chronicle sportswriter and fellow blogger Richard Justice and I have been corresponding regarding the mistakes that Stros management made that resulted in this season’s currently last place club. Our friendly exchange is generating some interesting observations.
I initiated the exchange by making the following point in response to one of Richard’s recent posts that seemed to blame the club’s failure this season on Stros management’s failure to sign free agents Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran during this past off-season:

[A]lthough you and I agree on most things related to the Stros (particularly that they need more hitting), the statistics do not back up your assertion that the Stros should have signed both Kent and Beltran. Even with them this season, this Stros club would be among the worst hitting teams in MLB. Here’s a recent post on my blog that discusses this point.

The reality is that the Stros were not a particularly good hitting team last season even with Kent and Beltran, but the late season surge made most folks overlook the problem. The lack of development of hitters such as Lane, Everett, and Burke — coupled with the downturn of Bags and management’s unwillingness to replace such poor hitters as Ausmus, Chavez, Bruntlett and Viz — has had a much greater impact on the Stros than losing Kent and Beltran.

Here is Richard’s response to my post.
Meanwhile, Brian Goff over at the Sports Economist chimes in with this insightful post in which he points out that it takes a balanced team effort — and not just big stars — for a club to be successful:

Houston offers a dramatic illustration of the fact that to excel in team sports requires a team — not a high-priced superstar or two chewing up the team bankroll (basketball the possible exception with so few players). Clemens ($18M), Bagwell ($18M), and Andy Pettite ($8.5M) make up about 65 percent of the team’s payroll — an amount nearly equal to the Rangers’ entire payroll. Besides Beltran, this $44 million would go a long way in providing another strong position player or two (catcher or SS being big needs) along with pitcher or two. Clemens is a great pitcher but very expensive for a player being used every 5th game. Bagwell’s salary is commensurate with his career peak, not the form of the last three years. Pettite’s salary exceeds Oswalt’s by $2.5 million even though Pettite’s career numbers are not in his league. Once again, I will push the theme that it’s not just the amount of money available that matters but how they spend it.

Although Brian’s argument is valid, I would point out that the situation with the Stros is not as dire as it seems in the thros of a probable last place season. Bags is probably done as a player, so the financial drain of his contract will likely be offset at least to some extent by proceeds from disability insurance. Clemens’ deal — which the Stros entered into only after Beltran signed with the Mets — is for only this season, which leaves only Pettitte’s contract as the Stros’ last big obligation to an aging veteran. As a result, the Stros are in a financial position to begin making the free agent acquisitions and trades necessary to regain contender status. Berkman, Oswalt and Lidge — along with emerging solid players such as Backe and Ensberg — is not a bad nucleus to build around.
By the way, this Newsday report indicates that the Yankees may have some competition for Clemens if he elects to allow the Stros to trade him to a contender.

The Stros pulled out a rare win last night, but the real story this week is that Roger Clemens reached a milestone that reflects that he is the best pitcher that any of us will ever have the pleasure of watching.
As regular readers of this blog know, I am somewhat of a stathead in regard to baseball, and I particularly find that the Lee Sinins-developed statistic — runs saved against average (“RSAA”) — is the best statistic for evaluating a pitcher’s performance.
As with its counterpart for comparing hitters — runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) — RSAA is particularly valuable to evaluate pitching because it focuses on the two most important things for a pitcher in winning baseball games — that is, not giving up runs and getting hitters out. RSAA measures the number of runs that a pitcher saves for his team relative to the number of runs that an average pitcher in the league would give up while obtaining an equivalent number of outs for his team (as with RCAA, RSAA is park-adjusted). Inasmuch as the hypothetical average pitcher’s RSAA is always zero, a player can have either an RSAA that is a positive number — which indicates he is an above average pitcher (i.e., Clemens) — or an RSAA that is a negative number, which means he is performing below average (i.e., Brandon Duckworth or Tim Redding)
Moreover, just as RCAA is a valuable tool for comparing hitting ability of hitters from different eras, RSAA is a very good measure for comparing pitchers who played during different eras. Inasmuch as RSAA measures a pitcher’s ability against that of an average pitcher in the pitcher’s league for each particular season, a pitcher’s lifetime RSAA measures how that pitcher performed against an average pitcher in his era, which is really the best way to compare pitchers from different eras. On the other hand, comparing other pitching statistics — such as earned run average, wins and hitting statistics against — is often skewed between pitchers of hitter-friendly eras (i.e., the current era) versus pitchers of pitcher-friendly eras (i.e., such as the late 1960’s and early 70’s).
Well, even though the Stros lost on Monday, Clemens pitched well (8 IP, 4 H, 2 R/ER, 1 BB, 7 K’s) in his 650th career start and, in so doing, set the modern major league record for career RSAA:

1 Roger Clemens 671
2 Lefty Grove 668
3 Walter Johnson 643
4 Greg Maddux 556
5 Grover C Alexander 524
6 Randy Johnson 512
7 Pedro Martinez 488
8 Christy Mathewson 405
9 Tom Seaver 404
10 Carl Hubbell 355

Even including pitchers from the 19th century, Clemens ranks 3rd on the all-time RSAA list:

1 Cy Young 813
2 Kid Nichols 678
3 Roger Clemens 671
4 Lefty Grove 668
5 Walter Johnson 643
6 Greg Maddux 556
7 Grover C Alexander 524
8 Randy Johnson 512
9 John Clarkson 508
10 Pedro Martinez 488

Moreover, during his career, Clemens has led the league (or tied) in RSAA during a season 6 times and finished in the top 5 an incredible thirteen times:

1986 AL T1ST 46
1987 AL 2ND 46
1988 AL 2ND 42
1989 AL T3RD 28
1990 AL 1ST 55
1991 AL 1ST 50
1992 AL 1ST 49
1994 AL T2ND 40
1996 AL 3RD 46
1997 AL 1ST 69
1998 AL 1ST 51
2000 AL 2ND 32
2001 AL T6TH 24
2004 NL 4TH 32

Even more remarkably, Clemens’ 26 RSAA that he has generated to date during the 2005 season is already a major league record for a 42 year olds pitcher:

RSAA YEAR RSAA
1 Roger Clemens 2005 26
2 Jack Quinn 1926 23
T3 Hoyt Wilhelm 1965 21
T3 Nolan Ryan 1989 21
T3 Warren Spahn 1963 21
6 Babe Adams 1924 15
7 Sad Sam Jones 1935 14
8 Doug Jones 1999 13
T9 Connie Marrero 1953 11
T9 Red Ruffing 1946 11
T9 Grover C Alexander 1929 11
T9 Dutch Leonard 1951 11

Finally, after only one and a third seasons with the Stros, Clemens already ranks 7th in career RSAA for Stros pitchers:

1 Roy Oswalt 115
2 Billy Wagner 99
3 Mike Hampton 76
4 Dave Smith 75
5 Octavio Dotel 67
6 Nolan Ryan 60
7 Roger Clemens 58
8 Wade Miller 56
9 Don Wilson 55
10 Joe Sambito 53

Roger Clemens is truly a pitcher for the ages.

When a 3-3 road trip and a two–game road winning streak are two of your baseball club’s season highlights to date, you know you’re in the middle of a tough season.
Nevertheless, there are glimmers of hope as the last place the Stros (18-31) return to Minute Maid Park on Memorial Day for a six game homestand against first the Reds (20-30) and then the Cards (32-17). Given that the Reds and the Cardinals are two of the best hitting teams in the National League in terms of runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here), the Stros’ pitchers will have their work cut out for them in keeping the number of runs at the minimum level necessary to give the Stros a chance to win.
And, believe me, runs are a hard thing to come by for this Stros team. This is clearly one of the worst hitting Stros’ clubs of the past 25 years, maybe ever. With just 30% of the season played, the Stros have already scored an incredible 53 less runs than an average National League club would have scored during the same number of games. That’s easily the worst in the National League.
Only two regulars — Bidg (7 RCAA/.297 BA/.353 OBP/.537 SLG) and Morgan Ensberg (6/.284/.381/.535) — have positive RCAA’s, and really only one other regular player — Lance Berkman (-5/.212/.325/.288) — is a good bet to have a positive RCAA after the remainder of the season. Moreover, don’t buy into the common explanation in the mainstream media that the Stros’ hitting woes this season are the result of losing Jeff Kent (3/.261/.351/.483) and Carlos Beltran (3/.300/.349/.465) over this past off-season — even with those players, the Stros would still be tied for the worst team RCAA in the National League!
By the way, although I blew my pre-season prediction for the Stros, at least my prediction (here and here) that not signing Beltran was the right move is starting to look pretty good.
The Stros’ hitting problems have been apparent for quite some time; last season’s late-season surge and playoff run simply covered them up. Thus, the Stros are definitely a club that is in the market for a hitter, and it’s good to see that the mainstream media is now discussing proposed trades that were suggested here a month ago. As noted here, a trade for a slugger to two should be a real possibility so long as the Stros are willing to use a couple of their good, young pitching prospects as bait.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ pitching staff continues to hang in there despite the lousy hitting. After an earlier two-week span in May in which the pitching staff’s runs scored against average (“RSAA,” explained here) dipped a bit, the staff recovered over the past week with a string of strong performances. The staff is now 7th of the sixteen National League teams in RSAA with both the Rocket (24 RSAA-1st in NL/1.19 ERA) and Roy O (10 RSAA-9th in NL/3.23 ERA) performing at a particularly high level. In fact, if you exclude the absolutely abysmal performance of both Duckworth (-12/11.40) and Astacio (-14/10.98), the pitching staff’s RSAA performance would currently be the third best in the National League. Inasmuch as those two hopefully will not pitch much more this season, it is reasonable to expect (barring injury) that the Stros pitching staff’s RSAA will improve gradually over the balance of the season.
Clemens kicks off the upcoming homestand by pitching the Memorial Day matinee game to open the series against the Reds, which should be interesting for no other reason than it pits the worst hitting team in the National League (i.e., the Stros) against the worst pitching team in the National League (i.e., the Reds). After this homestand, the Stros go to New York for three games with the Mets (26-25), and then return home the following weekend for a three game series against the Blue Jays (27-23) before going back on the road for a six game road trip.

In a gathering of advertisers last Wednesday in New York City, CBS chairman Leslie Moonves explained that CBS lost the key rating title this past season to Fox among viewers between the ages of 18 and 49 because of Yankees relief pitcher Mariano Rivera.
Mr. Moonves reasoned that the ratings race between Fox and CBS was so close that if the ratings for just one of the seven playoff games between the Yankees and the Red Sox last October were subtracted, CBS would have beaten Fox for the year. That series went to a seventh game because Riviera uncharacteristically blew several Yankee save opportunities. Thus, Mr. Moonves concluded, “Mariano Riviera cost us more money than the Yankees.”
I wonder if that will lead to a new pitching statistic: “Blown ratings race?”

After admitting a couple of weeks ago that my preseason prediction about the Stros (15-28) appears to have been dead wrong, I continue to watch the hometown club, although it’s not easy.
My younger son and I attended last Thursday’s game against the D-Backs (26-18) that was highlighted by five Stros’ errors. It’s a sure sign that the season is not going well when the loudest cheers of the evening occur when a Stros player would beat out a double play ball. Then, the Rangers (24-20) swept the Stros over the weekend, concluding with an 18-3 rout in which Stros starting pitcher Ezequiel Astacio (10.61 ERA/-13 RSAA, explained here) punched his ticket back to AAA Round Rock while imitating a deer in the headlights, and a 2-0 waste of a strong Roy O (3.50/6 RSAA) pitching performance. The Stros are now tied for last place in the NL Central with the Reds.
There is really no mystery to why the Stros are doing so poorly. As was the trend last season (except for the last third of the season), the Stros have become a poor hitting team. The club is now in last place in the National League at -31 runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here), and the poor hitting has seemed to affect the pitching staff, which has fallen to 11th in the National League at -4 RSAA. Inasmuch as only Bidg (10 RCAA/.310 AVE/.371 OBP/.568 SLG), Ensberg (10/.311/.414/.561), and Palmeiro (2/.341/.388/.477) currently have a positive RCAA among the Stros hitters, the loss of Bags, Kent, and Beltran really has not had that big of an effect on the Stros — the Stros would still only have a -21 RCAA even with those players. Ouch!
Consequently, this is a fundamentally deficient team in terms of hitting. The Stros’ failure to upgrade their personnel at catcher and a couple of the outfield positions is really coming home to roost at this point, and it’s time for Stros management to rid the club of some dead wood on the roster and open the spots up for younger players who at least have some potential. For example, Ausmus, who has exactly two extra base hits in almost 100 plate appearances this season, should be released in favor of AAA catcher Humberto Quintero, who is currently hitting .277/.326/.477 at Round Rock compared to Ausmus’ -6 RCAA and pathetic .253/.320/.275.
Meanwhile, the Stros have at least four top pitching prospects at AAA Round Rock (Wandy Rodriguez and Jared Gothreaux) and AA Corpus Christi (Fernando Nieve and Jason Hirsch). Perhaps dangling Backe with one of two of those prospects would generate interest from a pitching starved club such as the Reds so that they would dangle one of their young slugging outfielders, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, or Wily Mo Pena. The Stros are a team that has been desperately in the need of an infusion of hitting for over a year now, and it’s time for Stros management to get creative in dealing some of the club’s pitching strength to create the balance between hitting and pitching that is essential to success on the Major League level.
The Stros are on the road for the next week against the Cubs (19-22) and the Brewers (20-23) before returning home next Monday (Memorial Day) for a homestand against against the Reds (15-28) and the Cardinals (27-16). Lefthander Wandy Rodriguez, who has a 3.69 ERA at Class AAA Round Rock, has been promoted to make his major-league debut tonight against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in place of Andy Pettitte, who is missing at least one start due to “forearm” (translated: “elbow”) stiffness.

In a last ditch effort to salvage another season or two of his career, longtime Stros 1B Jeff Bagwell has decided to undergo surgery on the arthritic right shoulder that has been deteriorating over the past several years.

Bags’ move to the disabled list and this surgery are probably both necessary steps toward the Stros working out a settlement with the disability insurer on Bags’ contract. Such a settlement would assist the Stros financially in paying off the balance of the $39 million or so that the club owes Bags over the remaining two years of his contract. My bet is that Bags will not be able to regain enough strength in his surgically repaired shoulder to withstand the rigors of playing Major League Baseball.

Bags’ impending retirement has generated an gratingly stupid discussion in the mainstream media about whether Bags should be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. On both talk radio and in the print media, supposed “experts” (with the notable exception of Charlie Pallilo) opine almost daily as to the pros and cons of whether Bags should be elected. In many respects, the discussion reflects the truth of what Bill James examined in his book about the Hall, Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame — that is, that election to the Hall is largely an arbitrary political process that has little to do with a player’s performance during his baseball career.

Frankly, Mr. James’ book is one of the reasons why I prefer Lee Sinins‘ much better conceived Baseball Immortals website in which each member of that group is selected solely on the basis of their performance as a baseball player. It is quite illuminating to see how many members of the Hall of Fame do not come close to meeting the standard of performance of membership in Baseball Immortals, and how many of the members of the performance-based Baseball Immortals group still have not been elected to the Hall.

In short, Bags should be elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and it is not even a close call. For his career, Bagwell has an incredible 680 RCAA (RCAA explained here) in 2,135 games (meaning that he has created 680 more runs than an average National League hitter would have created in those games), a .297 batting average, a gaudy .408 on-base percentage (to put that in perspective, an average National League hitter had about a .340 OBP last season), a slugging percentage of .541, and a monstrous .949 career OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) compared to the league average OPS during Bagwell’s career of .763!

In addition to the foregoing, Bagwell holds the modern NL record for career RCAA by a 1B:

1 Jeff Bagwell 680
2 Johnny Mize 638
3 Willie McCovey 536
4 Bill Terry 425
5 Todd Helton 406
6 Stan Musial 399
7 Keith Hernandez 371
8 Dolph Camilli 353
9 Will Clark 331
10 Frank Chance 330

Indeed, Bags’ running mate — Craig Biggio — has “only” a .810 career OPS (compared to his league average of .756) and 357 RCAA in 2447 games. The fact that Bidg should be a surefire Hall of Famer underscores the fact that Bags should be, too.

And as if the foregoing stats were not enough, Bags was among the best defensive first basemen in the game until his shoulder injury robbed him of his throwing ability over the past several seasons, and he remains — despite average speed — one of the best and most instinctive baserunners in the game during his career.

Just to underscore the foregoing, Mr. James — who knows more about baseball in his pinky than most of us can comprehend — rates Bags as the fourth best firstbaseman of all-time in his New Bill James Historical Abstract, behind only Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Mark McGwire.

So, please. Whenever you hear someone take the ignorant position that Bags was not good enough to be in the Hall of Fame, please refer them to this post. Bags may not make it into the Hall because of arbitrary and capricious bias. However, such a non-selection would have nothing to do with his performance. He is truly one of baseball’s greats.

Okay, so it appears that I was wrong in my prediction about the Stros this season.
The Stros (12-19) are already 8 games behind the Cards in the National League Central race and struggling to stay out of last place in the division. The club is 2-14 on the road so far this season, and have already endured two six game losing streaks. Last season’s playoff run seems like a distant memory.
Placing all of this in perspective is the Baseball Prospectus’ Jonah Keri:

Here is the Astros Lineup for this past Sunday’s game against the Braves:
CF Willy Taveras
2B Eric Bruntlett
3B Morgan Ensberg
LF Mike Lamb
1B Jose Vizcaino
RF Jason Lane
SS Adam Everett
C Raul Chavez
P Ezequiel Astacio
With no other information, what would you deduce from that lineup?

A) The over/under for runs scored by this lineup is 1.
B) The Astros have been demoted to the Texas League.
C) They’re about to get whupped by a National League opponent.
D) All of the above.

If you picked D), you’re correct. The lineup the Astros ran out for Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Braves isn’t much better than a Double-A squad, and a top-tier NL team like the Braves will likely chop them to bits.

Final score: Braves 16 Stros 0. It’s going to be a long season.
By the way, after Monday night’s game in which the Rocket won his 330th game, here’s how Clemens’ batting statistics compare to backup infielder Eric Bruntlett‘s so far this season:

Clemens: 5 hits in 15 plate appearances, .357 Ave./.400 OBP/.357 SLG
Bruntlett: 0 hits in 15 plate appearances, .000/.200/.000

After 3.91 ERA/10 RSAA (RSAA explained here) in the 2003 season and 2.98 ERA/32 RSAA in the 2004 season, Clemens is off to a 1.10 ERA/18 RSAA start in his first 7 starts this season. He has a 3.16 career ERA, compared to his league average of 4.38, and 663 RSAA in 647 games. Clemens is now just 5 RSAA behind Lefty Grove‘s modern major league career RSAA record.
Clemens is truly a once-in-a-lifetime pitcher.
In other Stros news, after he missed the last six games with an arthritic right shoulder, the Stros finally placed Bags on the disabled list today. My sense is that this move is a necessary first step toward the Stros working out a settlement with the disability insurer on Bags’ contract. Such a settlement would assist the Stros financially in paying off the balance of the $39 million that the club owes Bags so that he can to retire gracefully. Inasmuch as Bags should be a shoo-in Hall of Famer unless his stats are diluted by playing while hurt at the end of his career, here’s hoping that the Stros can make those arrangements quickly.
The Stros called up OF/1B Todd Self from AAA Round Rock to replace Bags on the 25 man roster. The 26 year old Self, who is a rangy left-handed hitter, has been tearing up the Pacific Coast League so far this season (.391/.491/.565). Here’s what Baseball Prospectus 2005 says about him:

Self is just a marginal prospect – not hitting in the 2004 Arizona Fall League didn’t help him – but it’s worth noting that the Astros are going to pay Jeff Bagwell a billion jillion dollars for not much more performance than they’d get by handing Self the first base job. His plate discipline is real and he could be good for 40 doubles and 15 homers, maybe a bit more, through his peak. A Mark Grace/Wally Joyner hitter with average defense will let you spend money elsewhere. You could even platoon Self with Royce Huffman, a comparable player who bats right-handed and has been stuck at AAA for two years.