After admitting a couple of weeks ago that my preseason prediction about the Stros (15-28) appears to have been dead wrong, I continue to watch the hometown club, although it’s not easy.
My younger son and I attended last Thursday’s game against the D-Backs (26-18) that was highlighted by five Stros’ errors. It’s a sure sign that the season is not going well when the loudest cheers of the evening occur when a Stros player would beat out a double play ball. Then, the Rangers (24-20) swept the Stros over the weekend, concluding with an 18-3 rout in which Stros starting pitcher Ezequiel Astacio (10.61 ERA/-13 RSAA, explained here) punched his ticket back to AAA Round Rock while imitating a deer in the headlights, and a 2-0 waste of a strong Roy O (3.50/6 RSAA) pitching performance. The Stros are now tied for last place in the NL Central with the Reds.
There is really no mystery to why the Stros are doing so poorly. As was the trend last season (except for the last third of the season), the Stros have become a poor hitting team. The club is now in last place in the National League at -31 runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here), and the poor hitting has seemed to affect the pitching staff, which has fallen to 11th in the National League at -4 RSAA. Inasmuch as only Bidg (10 RCAA/.310 AVE/.371 OBP/.568 SLG), Ensberg (10/.311/.414/.561), and Palmeiro (2/.341/.388/.477) currently have a positive RCAA among the Stros hitters, the loss of Bags, Kent, and Beltran really has not had that big of an effect on the Stros — the Stros would still only have a -21 RCAA even with those players. Ouch!
Consequently, this is a fundamentally deficient team in terms of hitting. The Stros’ failure to upgrade their personnel at catcher and a couple of the outfield positions is really coming home to roost at this point, and it’s time for Stros management to rid the club of some dead wood on the roster and open the spots up for younger players who at least have some potential. For example, Ausmus, who has exactly two extra base hits in almost 100 plate appearances this season, should be released in favor of AAA catcher Humberto Quintero, who is currently hitting .277/.326/.477 at Round Rock compared to Ausmus’ -6 RCAA and pathetic .253/.320/.275.
Meanwhile, the Stros have at least four top pitching prospects at AAA Round Rock (Wandy Rodriguez and Jared Gothreaux) and AA Corpus Christi (Fernando Nieve and Jason Hirsch). Perhaps dangling Backe with one of two of those prospects would generate interest from a pitching starved club such as the Reds so that they would dangle one of their young slugging outfielders, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, or Wily Mo Pena. The Stros are a team that has been desperately in the need of an infusion of hitting for over a year now, and it’s time for Stros management to get creative in dealing some of the club’s pitching strength to create the balance between hitting and pitching that is essential to success on the Major League level.
The Stros are on the road for the next week against the Cubs (19-22) and the Brewers (20-23) before returning home next Monday (Memorial Day) for a homestand against against the Reds (15-28) and the Cardinals (27-16). Lefthander Wandy Rodriguez, who has a 3.69 ERA at Class AAA Round Rock, has been promoted to make his major-league debut tonight against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in place of Andy Pettitte, who is missing at least one start due to “forearm” (translated: “elbow”) stiffness.