With a quintessential Roy O quickie-shutout (1 hr., 50 min.) on Sunday afternoon, the Stros (26-35) continue to show signs of life by winning their fifth straight game and seventh out of their least ten. The streak has allowed the Stros to exit last place in the NL Central for the first time in awhile by a half-game over the pitching-challenged Reds (26-36).
Although a good stretch tends to generate good vibes, the Stros are still a seriously flawed team. Through 38% of the season, the Stros are dead last in Major League Baseball in hitting by scoring -73 fewer runs in their 62 games than an average-hitting National League club would have scored in those games. That -73 runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) is almost 33% worse than any other club in Major League Baseball. Only 3B Morgan Ensberg (8 RCAA/.283 AVE/.374 OBA/.551 SLG) has a well above-average RCAA, although 1B Lance Berkman (-4/.252/.341/.369) and RF Jason Lane (-4/.232/.278/.442) have started to swing the bat better recently and appear prepared to raise their RCAA well into positive numbers.
So, the Stros are still in the market for at least one and possibly two above-average hitters. The remainder of the team, with the possible exception of the fading Biggio (1/.276/.330/.477), appears destined for below average RCAA, and even if Lane and Berkman improve into positive RCAA figures, the Stros as a team will probably end the season somewhere around -60 to -80 RCAA without acquisition of a hitter or two. My sense is that the Reds — with their glut of hard-hitting outfielders and pathetic pitching — remain the logical trade partner for the Stros.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching remains rock solid. The staff’s aggregate runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) is 7th of the sixteen National League staffs, and would be at the top of the league if not burdened by the poor individual RSAA’s of their trio of fifth starters — Duckworth (-12), Astacio (-14) and Rodriguez (-9). Inasmuch as the Rocket continues to lead the National League in RSAA, Roy O is in the top 10 of RSAA for NL pitchers, and Pettitte, Lidge and Wheeler all have solidly positive RSAA’s, the Stros pitching staff will likely keep the club in most games despite the lack of hitting.
The Stros are on the road this week against the Orioles (36-26) and the Royals (20-41) before returning home next week for a six game homestand against the Rockies (20-40) and the Rangers (33-28). In the meantime, keep your eye on the trade wire.