Okay, so it appears that I was wrong in my prediction about the Stros this season.
The Stros (12-19) are already 8 games behind the Cards in the National League Central race and struggling to stay out of last place in the division. The club is 2-14 on the road so far this season, and have already endured two six game losing streaks. Last season’s playoff run seems like a distant memory.
Placing all of this in perspective is the Baseball Prospectus’ Jonah Keri:
Here is the Astros Lineup for this past Sunday’s game against the Braves:
CF Willy Taveras
2B Eric Bruntlett
3B Morgan Ensberg
LF Mike Lamb
1B Jose Vizcaino
RF Jason Lane
SS Adam Everett
C Raul Chavez
P Ezequiel Astacio
With no other information, what would you deduce from that lineup?A) The over/under for runs scored by this lineup is 1.
B) The Astros have been demoted to the Texas League.
C) They’re about to get whupped by a National League opponent.
D) All of the above.If you picked D), you’re correct. The lineup the Astros ran out for Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Braves isn’t much better than a Double-A squad, and a top-tier NL team like the Braves will likely chop them to bits.
Final score: Braves 16 Stros 0. It’s going to be a long season.
By the way, after Monday night’s game in which the Rocket won his 330th game, here’s how Clemens’ batting statistics compare to backup infielder Eric Bruntlett‘s so far this season:
Clemens: 5 hits in 15 plate appearances, .357 Ave./.400 OBP/.357 SLG
Bruntlett: 0 hits in 15 plate appearances, .000/.200/.000
After 3.91 ERA/10 RSAA (RSAA explained here) in the 2003 season and 2.98 ERA/32 RSAA in the 2004 season, Clemens is off to a 1.10 ERA/18 RSAA start in his first 7 starts this season. He has a 3.16 career ERA, compared to his league average of 4.38, and 663 RSAA in 647 games. Clemens is now just 5 RSAA behind Lefty Grove‘s modern major league career RSAA record.
Clemens is truly a once-in-a-lifetime pitcher.
In other Stros news, after he missed the last six games with an arthritic right shoulder, the Stros finally placed Bags on the disabled list today. My sense is that this move is a necessary first step toward the Stros working out a settlement with the disability insurer on Bags’ contract. Such a settlement would assist the Stros financially in paying off the balance of the $39 million that the club owes Bags so that he can to retire gracefully. Inasmuch as Bags should be a shoo-in Hall of Famer unless his stats are diluted by playing while hurt at the end of his career, here’s hoping that the Stros can make those arrangements quickly.
The Stros called up OF/1B Todd Self from AAA Round Rock to replace Bags on the 25 man roster. The 26 year old Self, who is a rangy left-handed hitter, has been tearing up the Pacific Coast League so far this season (.391/.491/.565). Here’s what Baseball Prospectus 2005 says about him:
Self is just a marginal prospect – not hitting in the 2004 Arizona Fall League didn’t help him – but it’s worth noting that the Astros are going to pay Jeff Bagwell a billion jillion dollars for not much more performance than they’d get by handing Self the first base job. His plate discipline is real and he could be good for 40 doubles and 15 homers, maybe a bit more, through his peak. A Mark Grace/Wally Joyner hitter with average defense will let you spend money elsewhere. You could even platoon Self with Royce Huffman, a comparable player who bats right-handed and has been stuck at AAA for two years.