Former MLB relief pitcher Bruce Sutter was voted into Baseball’s Hall of Fame earlier this week, although he probably should not have been. The fact that Sutter won MLB’s National League Cy Young Award (awarded annually to the league’s best pitcher) in 1979 may well tipped the scales in favor of Sutter’s Hall-of-Fame candidacy in some voters’ eyes. But a little known fact is that Sutter did not deserve that Cy Young Award, either, and that voter ignorance in evaluating the value of two former Stros pitchers figured prominently in Sutter winning award that season.
Sutter won the 1979 NL Cy Young Award by taking 77 of a possible 120 points, but he garnered only 10 of the 24 first-place votes. Sutter benefited from an absurd split vote that developed over Stros teammates, Joe Niekro and J.R. Richard, who shared 13 of the other 14 first-place votes.
Despite that split vote, Richard was the superior pitcher that season, particularly over Niekro. Richard pitched far more innings (292.1) than either Niekro (263.2) or Sutter (101.1), and had a more impressive 313/98 strikeout-to-walk ratio as compared with Niekroís 119/107 and Sutter’s 110/32. Moreover, Richard saved 19 more runs for his team than an average National League pitcher would have that season (“RSAA,” explained here) while Niekro had an 8 RSAA and eight fewer complete games than Richard.
So, why was Niekro even in the competition for the Cy Young Award that season with Sutter and Richard? In essence, because he was luckier than Richard. Niekro had a 21-11 won/loss record that season versus Richardís 18-13, a misleading statistic that ended up generating Niekro nine first-place votes to Richardís four. Thus, Sutterís Cy Young Award that season — and quite possibly his Hall of Fame induction this year — is largely attributable to the ignorance of a substantial number of voters in evaluating the performance of these three pitchers during the 1979 season. Under any reasonable interpretation of performance, Richard wins the 1979 NL Cy Young Award easily and a major part of the justification for Sutterís Hall of Fame candidacy — particularly over superior pitchers such as Goose Gossage and Bert Blylevyn — goes by the wayside.
By the way, Richard followed up that great 1979 season with an even better one midway through the 1980 season (20 RSAA, 1.90 ERA and 119/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 113.2 innings) when he was struck down by a tragic stroke that effectively ended his ability to play baseball in the prime of his career (Richard was 30 years old at the time).

Why do some media reporters make up disputes where none exist in connection with an already newsworthy story?
In his most recent column, Chronicle columnist Richard Justice updates the status of Stros firstbaseman and future Hall-of-Famer, Jeff Bagwell. As regular readers of this blog know, the Stros situation with Bags is a tad difficult at this point. Bags is at the end of his career and is a shadow of his former stature due to a chronically arthritic right shoulder that prevents him from throwing a ball effectively. The Stros backloaded Bags’ most recent contract so that he will receive approximately $24 million in this final season of the contract ($17 million in salary and $7 million to buy out an option for next season). That’s far in excess of Bags’ value as a player at this point, but what the heck — you win under some long-term contracts and you lose under others.
Inasmuch as Bags is probably no longer capable of being an every-day player, the Stros prefer to work out a settlement with Bags under which the club would declare Bags disabled under the club’s disability insurance policy, the club and the insurer would either litigate that claim or settle it, the club would pay Bags his $24 million and Bags would retire as the greatest player in club history. Bags, for his part, states publicly that he would prefer to play out this season, but he has to say that because saying that he cannot and retiring is the only way that he would not be entitled to recover the $24 million that the Stros still owe him under his contract. For their part, the Stros have never said or done anything that indicates that they would not pay the balance of Bags’ contract according to its terms.
While discussing all of this, Justice illogically criticizes the Stros’ desire to declare Bags disabled and make a claim on the club’s disability insurance policy, and then observes as follows:

Before this gets ugly ó and it could get ugly as each side presses its case ó the signing of veteran outfielder Preston Wilson indicates where the Astros believe this is headed.

So, what’s “ugly” about the situation? That the Stros prefer to settle up with the best player in club history rather than have him languish on the bench for a season as an over-priced pinch-hitter? What would be ugly would be for the Stros to use a disabled player in their everyday lineup simply because the club doesn’t want to eat his contract. Rather than being critical of the club, Justice should be complimenting the Stros for not doing just that.

As the Stros continue to troll the used car lot of free agent hitters during this off-season, Chronicle Stros beat writer Jose de Jesus Ortiz reminds us that he relies on Stros press releases rather than objective research in this article entitled “Astros near deal for slugger”:

Astros general manager Tim Purpura’s hopes for landing a run-producing outfielder may come to fruition today. And if those plans work out, it’s most likely free agent center fielder Preston Wilson will land with the National League champions.
Wilson, 31, hit .260 with 25 home runs, 90 RBIs and 148 strikeouts for the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals in 2005. All-Star third baseman Morgan Ensberg, who had 36 homers and 101 RBIs, was the only Astro with more RBIs last year than Wilson.
Wilson, who earned $12.5 million in 2005, would likely get a contract worth less per year than the one-year, $6 million offer Nomar Garciaparra spurned from the Astros.

So, Wilson is a “run-producing outfielder” and about as good a slugger as Morgan Ensberg? H’mm, let’s look at the facts.
Wilson is a 31 year-old outfielder who has played eight seasons with the Marlins, Rockies and the Nationals. In those eight seasons, he has had a barely above-average runs created against average (RCAA, explained here) in four seasons and below-average in the other four. Wilson has a career -17 RCAA, which means that he has created 17 fewer runs for his teams over his eight seasons than an average National League hitter would have generated over the same period. In contrast, Ensberg has created 43 more runs than an average National League hitter would have during his five seasons with the Stros. Wilson’s career stat line is .333 OBA/.478 SLG/.811 OPS, which means he is below-average for getting on base and slightly above-average in terms of slugging. Lance Berkman — who is a real slugger — has a career stat line in one less season than Wilson of 289 RCAA/.416 OBA/.557 SLG/.973 OPS.
In short, Wilson is a slightly below-average outfielder whose main attribute is that he would probably be less bad than Willy Taveras at making outs and in not creating runs. But he is not a “slugger” and most likely never will be. A more appropriate analysis would question why the Stros management is even considering throwing a substantially above-average National League salary at such a player.
01/04/05 Update: The Stros signed Wilson to a $4.5 million one year deal with an option to retain him for three years for another $24 million. Absent Wilson turning into a far more productive player in 2006 than he has been in his previous eight MLB seasons, I cannot imagine the Stros picking up that option.

Chronicle sportswriter Richard Justice — who still has a difficult time accepting Stros owner Drayton McLane’s decision of over a year ago not to retain former Stros GM Gerry Hunsicker — rarely misses an opportunity to slam McLane and current Stros GM Tim Purpura, even during the Christmas season.
In today’s broadside, Justice castigates McLane and Purpura for everything from raising ticket prices to firing former Stros broadcaster Alan Ashby, and then levels the following criticism about the Stros’ off-season personnel decisions:

If people keep reminding Tim Purpura he has been on the job 14 months without acquiring a player of consequence, he’s going to feel compelled to do something stupid.
Maybe that’s why he offered Nomar Garciaparra $6 million. That’s a lot of money for a player out much of the last two seasons with injuries. Truth is, a left-field platoon of Luke Scott and Chris Burke might be as productive as Garciaparra.
Maybe that’s also why there are reports Purpura would be willing to trade Brad Lidge.
If Purpura had signed Garciaparra, the next move should have been docking him a month’s pay. If he trades Lidge, he should be fired.
Money is too tight to throw at a player with a history of breaking down. And trading Lidge would be so monumentally stupid, it’s almost beyond discussion.

H’mm, a platoon of the 28 year-old Luke Scott and the 26 year-old Chris Burke might be as productive as the 32 year-old Garciaparra? Let’s take a look at their respective career statistics to date:

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The Wall Street Journal is running another chapter in its free Econoblog series, and the current installment pits the original Sports Economist Skip Sauer against Sabernomics‘ John-Charles Bradbury discussing the free agent market in Major League Baseball this winter. Among the many interesting observations from these two sharp experts on the economics of baseball is the following from Professor Sauer on the super-heated free agent market for relief pitchers:

[T]his is the year of the reliever in the free-agent market. And if their contracts are anywhere near full value, that is one heck of an interesting observation. Why, you ask? Because it debunks an age-old claim that is inconsistent with economic analysis. The claim dates back to the origin of free agency, via arbitrator Peter Seitz’s decision in the McNally-Messersmith case (like the arbitrator in the recent Terrell Owens case, Seitz was abruptly fired, in his case by the owners). After Seitz’s decision, the owners and players both feared for the worst should full-blown free agency emerge in baseball’s marketplace. They proceeded to negotiate a collective-bargaining agreement which protected owners’ interests (by giving young players limited bargaining power), along with the interests of journeymen, allegedly, by limiting the supply of free agents.

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That’s right. In addition to being one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball history, Roger Clemens is now carving out a new career as an unusually effective player agent.
How so, you ask? Well, there is simply no explanation possible other than Clemens’ negotiating skill for the Stros’ decision yesterday to sign the atrocious Brad Ausmus to a two-year, $7.5 million contract. Clemens had previously stated publicly that one of the key factors that he is considering in deciding whether to rejoin the Stros next season is whether the club retains free agent Ausmus, who is Clemens’ favorite catcher. Noting that factor, Stros GM Tim Purpura observed upon signing Ausmus to the contract that “he’s one of those types of players that you can’t really appreciate . . . from the numbers.”

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The Stros continue to make some good personnel moves and some dubious ones during the always entertaining Major League Baseball off-season.
First, the good ones. The Stros passed on offering free agent pitcher Roger Clemens salary arbitration, which means that Clemens is free to negotiate a deal with any other Major League club and the Stros cannot strike a deal with him until after May 1, 2006, a month after the beginning of the 2006 season. I don’t expect Clemens to sign with another club because I doubt that he could arrange a deal as sweet as the one he had with the Stros (big money, only required to show up when he pitches, pitch close to home, etc.), but even if he does, the Stros decision not to offer him arbitration was the right one. It simply does not make much economic sense to risk locking up $20 million on a 43 year old pitcher — even one of the all-time best — when the club’s strength is in its young pitching prospects.

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Major League Baseball’s winter meetings take place in Dallas this week, and that’s the time that the major league clubs really get serious about proposing and making free agent acquisitions and trades of players. Inasmuch as the Stros are definitely in the market for some hitting, it’s timely that venerable minor league baseball prospect evaluator Baseball America has published its annual top ten list ($) of the Stros’ minor league prospects.
The Stros organization has traditionally emphasized player development and current Stros GM Tim Purpura is a development guy, so expect that tradition to continue. The Stros farm system is best known for developing pitchers (think Larry Dierker, Don Wilson, J.R. Richard, Ken Forsch, Joe Sambito, Dave Smith, Shane Reynolds, Billy Wagner, Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, etc.), but the club during the Biggio-Bagwell era has also generated a number of productive hitters, including Bidg, Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Abreu, Morgan Ensberg, and Jason Lane. Similarly, the core of the key performers on the Stros’ 2005 World Series team were developed within the club’s farm system (Berkman, Bidg, Ensberg, Lane, Roy O, Lidge, Chris Burke and Chad Qualls), and six rookies were on the Stros’ World Series roster.

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This earlier post from yesterday noted the dubious decision of the New York Mets to pay former Stros closer Billy Wagner $43 million over the next three seasons with an option for a fourth season that could push the total compensation to over $50 million.
One thing that I forgot to mention in that earlier post was the classless way in which Wagner publicly criticized Stros owner Drayton McLane before and after McLane traded him to the Phillies. McLane has his faults, but Wagner’s outburst blasting McLane was way over-the-top considering that McLane is by far the best owner that the Stros have ever had.
So, with that backdrop, I was not particularly surprised when I saw this Philadelphia Inquirer article regarding Wagner’s comments on the way out of Philly:

On his first day as New York Mets closer, Billy Wagner came out throwing heat at his old team.
He trashed the Phillies’ commitment to winning, wondered about their plan for this season, and said he’d likely still be with the club if it had been willing to give him a three-year, $24 million contract in July.
“There’s a difference between winning and being competitive,” Wagner said. “In the end, I thought [the Phillies] were more interested in being competitive than winning.”
Wagner was not surprised that the Phillies weren’t more aggressive.
“Not considering I gave them three for 24 [three years and $24 million] at the trade deadline and they laughed at me,” he said.

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Inasmuch as Roger Clemens still has not let the Stros know whether he is going to play next season, the Stros have been twiddling their thumbs so far this off-season considering silly notions such as re-signing Brad Ausmus rather than going out and competing for a couple of free agent hitters that the club really needs.
However, it helps me to remain optimistic about the Stros’ management when I read that former Stros closer Billy Wagner has just taken the Mets to the cleaners for $43 million over the next three years with an option for a fourth season that could push the total compensation over $50 million. Now, don’t get me wrong. Wagner is a very good closer and a lefty to boot. However, $50 million over four years for a 34 year old pitcher who had season-ending arm problems as recently as the season before last? Although Wagner’s runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) was a very good 26 last season, he has had RCAA’s of 10, 13 and 15 in three of the past five seasons. That’s decent production, but not $12.50 – $14.3 million per year-type of production. The Stros will likely sign the more effective Brad Lidge for an annual salary probably around a third of what the Mets are paying Wagner.
With Jeff Bagwell’s deal, the Stros are closing the book on their final long-term, overpriced contract. Inasmuch as those contracts limit the flexibility of a mid-market club such as the Stros to make the type of “tweaking” acquisitions necessary to remain competitive, I am glad that Stros management is not overbidding for high-priced stars (remember Carlos Beltran?). Nevertheless, the Stros need to be careful at overpaying — albeit at a far lesser rate — unproductive players such as Ausmus. Throw a couple of million at Ausmus, plus another million or so at an equally unproductive player such as Vizcaino, and — after awhile — you’re talking about some real money.