That’s right. In addition to being one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball history, Roger Clemens is now carving out a new career as an unusually effective player agent.
How so, you ask? Well, there is simply no explanation possible other than Clemens’ negotiating skill for the Stros’ decision yesterday to sign the atrocious Brad Ausmus to a two-year, $7.5 million contract. Clemens had previously stated publicly that one of the key factors that he is considering in deciding whether to rejoin the Stros next season is whether the club retains free agent Ausmus, who is Clemens’ favorite catcher. Noting that factor, Stros GM Tim Purpura observed upon signing Ausmus to the contract that “he’s one of those types of players that you can’t really appreciate . . . from the numbers.”
Well, Purpura is certainly correct on that score. Despite his ability to block Clemens’ split-finger fastball in the dirt, Ausmus is one of the worst of all Major League baseball players over the past five seasons (complete statistics here). During that span, Ausmus has created an astounding 133 fewer runs that an average National League hitter would have produced in the same number of games (runs created against average – RCAA – explained here) and all of his hitting statistics are well below-average for a National League catcher. In fact, retaining Ausmus means that he will soon set the record for the lowest career RCAA in Stros history:
1 Roger Metzger -153
2 Brad Ausmus -152
3 Bob Lillis -109
4 Craig Reynolds -83
5 Tim Bogar -73
6 Luis Pujols -64
7 John Bateman -60
8 Bob Aspromonte -56
9 Rafael Ramirez -55
10 Adam Everett -53
It used to be that the Stros rationalized keeping Ausmus around because of his defensive ability, but the 37 year-old catcher is not even average defensively any longer despite his willingness to sacrifice his body for Clemens’ split-finger pitch. Ausmus has been so bad for such a long time that the fact that he “only” cost the Stros 14 fewer runs last season than an average National League hitter would have is curiously viewed as a favorable factor in the decision to retain Ausmus.
So, why are the Stros overpaying a replacement-level player such as Ausmus by at least $2.5 million over each of the next two seasons? The only rational explanation is that Ausmus’ contract is part of the inducement for Clemens to return. And if Clemens does return and pitches even half as well as he did over the past two seasons, then the Ausmus contract will be worth it. But paying out that kind of scratch on the hoped-for return of a 43 year-old pitcher who broke down physically at the end of this past season is not doing anything to solve the Stros’ hitting woes, which remain unaddressed during this offseason.
Maybe the Astros picked the three sub-200 catchers for their 40-man roster to make Ausmus look good by comparison.
For crying out loud, a Mariachi band would be more effective than that backing trio.
Lawrence, actually, either Quintero or Gimenez project to be at least as “productive” as Ausmus, and both of them would generate that production at a far lesser price than Ausmus. I simply do not understand why the Stros wasted a roster spot on Chavez. Seems like continuing to hold out hope for Carlos Hernandez would have been a better choice than Chavez.
It’s got to be either the Roger factor or the female demographic because it certainly isn’t baseball-related.
I believe I defended the prospect of resigning Ausmus in response to one of your earlier posts. I did so because of the perceived psychological value, the lack of other attractive options, and because I assumed it could be done for a reasonable amount, like one year, or maybe two, for $2 mil per. 2 mil at $7.5 would be an overly large amount of money for the Yankees to spend on a player like Ausmus, and for a team with the Astros’ budget and other holes, it’s practically criminal.
Reasons to sign Ausmus:
1. Ausmus is still a good defensive catcher. His ability to hold runners has decreased, but there is no better at blocking pitches. There is no better at framing pitches. He has good catcher instincts. He moves around very well for a catcher (weighs a lot less than most catchers). And he’s extremely durable.
2. All of our pitchers love him, and the veterans do too. Losing Ausmus would have hurt the morale of the clubhouse. I don’t know exactly how much things like chemistry and morale count to a ball club, but Ausmus certainly helps out on that account.
3. There’s the whole mystique of his game-calling skills. Once again, who knows how significant it really is. All I know is that every pitcher pitches better when he is on the mound. I’ve heard stories of him memorizing hundred-page scouting reports, and I think his knowledge of the game and of the hitters is a real asset.
4. He had a fairly decent .350 OBP last year, which means that he’s doing his job as an 8th hitter to get the pitcher up to bat. Furthermore, in the second half of 05, he delivered a lot of clutch hits, started a lot of rallies from the bottom of the order, and collected more hits than any other NL catcher.
5. The market has gone a little haywire this offseason. Paul LoDuca is getting $6M. Hernandez is getting close to $8M. Molina will likely get at least $8M per. None of these players are huge upgrades, but they cost substantially more than the $3.75M that Ausmus gets. Ausmus walks more than any of them. He has a higher OBP than any of them. His RBI totals are comparable. No one is going to forget that any of these guys are catchers first and batters second. So why pay millions more for a modest upgrade when we might also risk disrupting the defense and the team chemistry?
Andy,
I’m indifferent to the Astros re-signing Ausmus as they did, but your defense of him goes a little bit too far.
I agree that he is a solid fielder behind the plate and the fact that apparently he’s popular in the clubhouse. How much of the Astros’ pitchers’ success is attributable to his ‘game-calling skills’ versus the pitchers’ natural talent is beyond my realm of knowledge, but I honestly do believe that Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens and Lidge would put up solid numbers throwing to Milo every night.
However, there is absolutely no rational way to defend Ausmus’ offensive offense. Tom K. has eloquently broken down his putrid offensive production multiple times on this site, especially in terms of RC/27. The fact that Ausmus had a .350 OBP v. Hernandez/LoDuca/Molina’s average OBP of about .330 is nearly insignificant in and of itself – that’s a total of about 8 bases over a 400 at-bat season. Additionally, Ausmus posted an incredibly low .331 SLG percentage in 2005, which is much, much lower than the aforementioned catchers. His advantage in walks is his only advantage at the plate, as his batting average and slugging percentage are horrible as compared to any catcher in MLB. Of catchers with at least 300 AB’s in 2005, only Jason Kendall and Chris Snyder had worse SLG numbers. He and Adam Everett are very similar in that they are apparently nice guys who field the ball consistently, but their offensive ineptitude is inconceivable, and unless Backe’s on the mound, the Astros will continue to go to fight with 6 hitters on their side in 2006.
Andy, essentially your case is that the “intangibles” of Ausmus justify the signing. Maybe so, but those sure are expensive intangibles.
I don’t consider blocking balls in the dirt as equating to a good defensive catcher. Ausmus’ other defensive skills are either average or below average at this point.
Your suggestion that Ausmus’ hitting is roughly comparable to the better catchers in the league is simply wrong. All of these other catchers have significantly higher career OPS than Ausmus, and Ausmus’ slightly higher walk rate last season — which is his highest in the past five seasons — appears to be an anecdotal uptick.
Finally, that other teams are overpaying average talent at catcher is a poor reasoning to overpay for below average talent at the same position.
The Astros overpayed for Ausmus, but he is still worth having on the team. He is, for all practical purposes, a coach on the field. Unless he is lured into the booth after his playing days have passed, I’m almost positive this guy will be in the dugout, hopefully for the Astros.
One thing I haven’t really had time to investigate are the incentives of his deal. The reports I’ve seen say the contract is “worth” 3.75M a year but note the deal is incentive laden. So how much is actually promised in stone per year?
Intangibles are really the only defense for the dollar amount on the deal. Maybe they wanted to thank him for the homerun in the 9th against the Bravos in game 4? Or his late season hitting streak which helped them into the post season? Or maybe the team has serious plans to bring up some of the young guns and want a father figure/battery mate to mitigate the effects of a quick call up?
Statistics are 90% of the game, but they just don’t account for all of it. By pure RCAA calculations alone, the chances of the Astros making to the postseason at the all-star break had to be around 3000:1. Regardless, if Ausmus is guaranteed 3.75M, thats just too much.
He hit .298 with an OBP of .380+ in July, August and September. He also led all #8 hitters in the NL in average and OBP (minimum of 200 ABs). $3.5 million a year is not a horrible salary.
“I don’t consider blocking balls in the dirt as equating to a good defensive catcher.”
Do you consider throwing out runners as equating to a good defensive catcher? Because, as far as I can tell, that is the only skill at which Ausmus is no longer top notch. And he’s not bad at that, either.
“Your suggestion that Ausmus’ hitting is roughly comparable to the better catchers in the league is simply wrong.”
I wasn’t trying to imply that his offense as a whole is comparable to other catchers. He’s obviously missing the power and the ability to hit for average. Still, I would argue that the other available catchers, while an upgrade, are not so huge of an upgrade as to warrant (1) a disruption of our team chemistry, (2) a possible downgrade in our defense, and (3) twice as much money. Getting an additional 10 homers in the lineup is not worth those three items.
“that other teams are overpaying average talent at catcher is a poor reasoning to overpay for below average talent at the same position.”
I don’t necessarily believe that anyone is overpaying. That’s just what the market is. Just look at the going price for relief pitchers. I think in this market, a defensive catcher with some strong intangibles is probably worth $3.75M.