“Slugger”?

PWilson.jpgAs the Stros continue to troll the used car lot of free agent hitters during this off-season, Chronicle Stros beat writer Jose de Jesus Ortiz reminds us that he relies on Stros press releases rather than objective research in this article entitled “Astros near deal for slugger”:

Astros general manager Tim Purpura’s hopes for landing a run-producing outfielder may come to fruition today. And if those plans work out, it’s most likely free agent center fielder Preston Wilson will land with the National League champions.
Wilson, 31, hit .260 with 25 home runs, 90 RBIs and 148 strikeouts for the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals in 2005. All-Star third baseman Morgan Ensberg, who had 36 homers and 101 RBIs, was the only Astro with more RBIs last year than Wilson.
Wilson, who earned $12.5 million in 2005, would likely get a contract worth less per year than the one-year, $6 million offer Nomar Garciaparra spurned from the Astros.

So, Wilson is a “run-producing outfielder” and about as good a slugger as Morgan Ensberg? H’mm, let’s look at the facts.
Wilson is a 31 year-old outfielder who has played eight seasons with the Marlins, Rockies and the Nationals. In those eight seasons, he has had a barely above-average runs created against average (RCAA, explained here) in four seasons and below-average in the other four. Wilson has a career -17 RCAA, which means that he has created 17 fewer runs for his teams over his eight seasons than an average National League hitter would have generated over the same period. In contrast, Ensberg has created 43 more runs than an average National League hitter would have during his five seasons with the Stros. Wilson’s career stat line is .333 OBA/.478 SLG/.811 OPS, which means he is below-average for getting on base and slightly above-average in terms of slugging. Lance Berkman — who is a real slugger — has a career stat line in one less season than Wilson of 289 RCAA/.416 OBA/.557 SLG/.973 OPS.
In short, Wilson is a slightly below-average outfielder whose main attribute is that he would probably be less bad than Willy Taveras at making outs and in not creating runs. But he is not a “slugger” and most likely never will be. A more appropriate analysis would question why the Stros management is even considering throwing a substantially above-average National League salary at such a player.
01/04/05 Update: The Stros signed Wilson to a $4.5 million one year deal with an option to retain him for three years for another $24 million. Absent Wilson turning into a far more productive player in 2006 than he has been in his previous eight MLB seasons, I cannot imagine the Stros picking up that option.

3 thoughts on ““Slugger”?

  1. Tom,
    DeJesus doesn’t write the headlines. That’s the editor’s job. Also, yes, Wilson is at best a barely better than average hitter. However, he’s better than both Chris Burke and the so far pathetic Luke Scott, as well as Taveras. Rumor has it that Taveras is about to be flipped for a starting pitcher, so in that context this deal makes some sense. However, Wilson is no slugger, and Astros fans should not be jumping up and down about this move. Seems barely over a wash to me.

  2. Don, if what you say is correct, an effective trade of Taveras for Wilson and a starting pitcher is a good deal for the Stros.

  3. Don’s analysis is pretty sound. It’s nothing to get really excited about at this point, but probably not a bad move even with Wilson’s flaws.

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