The Stros continue to make some good personnel moves and some dubious ones during the always entertaining Major League Baseball off-season.
First, the good ones. The Stros passed on offering free agent pitcher Roger Clemens salary arbitration, which means that Clemens is free to negotiate a deal with any other Major League club and the Stros cannot strike a deal with him until after May 1, 2006, a month after the beginning of the 2006 season. I don’t expect Clemens to sign with another club because I doubt that he could arrange a deal as sweet as the one he had with the Stros (big money, only required to show up when he pitches, pitch close to home, etc.), but even if he does, the Stros decision not to offer him arbitration was the right one. It simply does not make much economic sense to risk locking up $20 million on a 43 year old pitcher — even one of the all-time best — when the club’s strength is in its young pitching prospects.
In another good move, the Stros elected not to offer salary arbitration to utility infielder Jose Vizcaino, who is so unproductive at this stage of his career that I am hoping that he retires and moves into the Stros’ player development department working with minor leaguers. Well, on second thought, maybe working with minor leaguers on everything other than hitting — Vizcaino’s career hitting stats are the following: -200 RCAA; .318 OBA; .346 SLG; .664 OPS. All of those are far below those of an average National League player.
But the Stros cannot seem to make good moves without making at least one bad one. They did so yesterday by offering salary arbitration to catcher Brad Ausmus, who has been among the five worst hitters in the National League over the past five seasons. The justification for signing Ausmus used to be that his defensive capabilities at catcher were so good that a club could overlook his abysmal hitting, but even that argument doesn’t work anymore — Ausmus isn’t even a good defensive catcher at this stage of his career. Although Ausmus did have one very magic moment last season, it’s a mistake to hold on to far below-average players at inflated prices.
Finally, in another interesting development, the Stros are quietly offering closer Brad Lidge in trade negotiations with other teams during the MLB Winter Meetings this week in Dallas. Although is always a bit disconcerting taking the risk of trading a talent in his prime such as Lidge, it’s really a good idea for the Stros go be exploring such options. The club’s strength is in pitching and Lidge has just become arbitration eligible and is due for a big salary jump — teams have been overpaying for closers on the free agent market this off-season. Thus, so long as the Stros could get an above-average corner outfielder in a trade for Lidge, that deal probably makes sense for the Stros.
Ausmus has to be tied to something they have going with Clemens. I can’t see any other reason to offer a player that brutal offensively another chance. I was really hoping they would pursue Molina or possibly grab a catcher in a trade. Looks like its not going to happen now, unfortunately.
I disagree. The Astros should have offered arbitration. If Clemens dared to take it, they could threaten to trade him to the Red Sox or Dodgers, because he wouldn’t have any no-trade rights since he’s not a 10-and-5. Now they don’t even get the draft pick if Clemens does play (though where?), and they don’t even have the option to see if Clemens would sign at a reduced rate. Even if Clemens did get a $20-million deal, he’s worth that much to the Astros if he pitches 2006 like 2005.
I agree that trading Lidge is a good move, though his value may be deflated after his postseason performance for fear of the Mitch Williams effect. It’s a good Moneyball move, and it’s amazing that teams are still falling for it after Oakland has demonstrated year after year that closers are fungible.
Ted, in the normal case, you would be right. However, Clemens is not the normal case.
Had the Stros offered arbitration, he almost certainly would have accepted it, placing the Stros in the position of having to pay him in the $18-20 million range. The threat of a trade is illusory because Clemens would retire rather than accept a trade. Moreover, I don’t believe McLane would feel comfortable with threatening Clemens with a trade.
Consequently, the Stros essentially gave up the potential draft pick for the flexibility of being able to use over 20% of their budget to address more pressing needs that they would otherwise have to reserve for Clemens. In my view, that flexibility is more important than the draft pick.
The Rocket is one of the all-time best, but the probability is greater that one or two additional above-average hitters will have a much more positive impact on the Stros next season than Clemens would. The Stros have a number of quality pitching prospects that will likely fill the Clemens void nicely.
The market this season for closers is just unbelievable. Sure wish the Stros could parley Lidge and a couple of prospects for Adam Dunn, but that’s probably wishful thinking.
The threat of a trade is illusory because Clemens would retire rather than accept a trade.
Well, precisely. That’s why Clemens won’t go to arbitration even if he accepts arbitration. If Clemens accepts arbitration, the Astros tell Clemens to cut a deal before the arbitrator rules or face a trade if the ruling is too high. If Clemens retires, the Astros don’t have to pay him, and don’t have to worry about the Mets or Cubs signing him.
Adam Dunn would be sweet. The Nationals would probably give up Nick Johnson for too little.
The Astros could use another hitter, but I don’t see any indication that they’re going to fix the #7-#8 holes in the lineup, and that’s where they’re getting killed.
The Stros are weak at shortstop and catcher, but the free agent shortstop market is nuttier than the market for closers. No way does it make sense for the Stros to pay the kind of money necessary for another SS for the marginal improvement that they would gain over Everett. I remain disappointed that Lugo decided to beat up his wife while he was developing into a good player here.
The catcher position is a mess, but at least most other clubs have the same problem. The kid at AA this past season (Gimenez) is their best prospect, but he’s still a year away from MLB. Quintero on the MLB club is better than Ausmus, but Ausmus has strong lobbying support from most of the pitchers and Bagwell. Ausmus has made more money in baseball from being well-connected than any player in recent memory.