It’s football time in Texas

Posted on by
Reply

AFL owners.jpgIt’s the lull before the onslaught of the college football bowl games, but football still permeates the culture of Texas as the high school playoffs move toward conclusion, the Cowboys contend for an NFL playoff berth and the Texans prepare for the 2007 NFL draft. The following are a few interesting football-related items that I noticed over the past week:
Dallas native and longtime Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt died after a long bout with cancer. Chronicle NFL columnist John McClain recalls a funny story about a meeting between Hunt, Bud Adams and legendarily crusty Chicago Bears owner George Halas at the time that Hunt and Adams were starting the old American Football League in the early 1960’s.
Despite the Texans’ problems, it’s reassuring to know that owner Bob McNair does not panic.
Chronicle sportswriter Dale Robertson reports on the remarkable success story that is the Southlake Carroll Dragons football program (the cheerleading team is another matter, though).
In this interesting column ($), the Wall Street Journal’s resident stathead, Allen St. John, makes a stab at objectively evaluating the pass protection of NFL teams. In so doing, he comes up with a stat that he calls the Sack Factor, which takes the sack yardage a team allows and divides it by the number of pass attempts. The lower the number, the better the protection. Although he finds a correlation between good teams and a low Sack Factor, the statistic needs some refinement — the Texans pass protection, which is hideous, does not rate as one of the worst in the NFL, probably because the Texans’ passing game is based on short, ineffectual pass routes that limit sacks as much as possible.
matthew-mcconaughey-hook-em-horns 121706.jpgThe lovable Ida Mae Crimpton pens her latest column from her porch in Elgin on her beloved Texas Longhorns’ preparations for the Alamo Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes. As Ida Mae observes, “Boy, whoever said it isn’t far from the castle to the outhouse sure knew what they were talking about.”
And finally, don’t miss Matt Damon’s hilarious impersonation of Longhorn fan Matthew McConaughey on a recent Letterman show. As Clear Thinkers favorite Dan Jenkins might say, “Dead Solid Perfect!”

BlawgSearch

Posted on by
Reply

BlawgSearch.gifThe blawgosphere — that is, the world of law-related blogs — has really come of age over the past couple of years as a research source, so it is becoming increasingly important to have a tool that facilitates research contained in blawgs.
BlawgSearch is a search engine that Tim Stanley and the folks at Justia.com have developed that focuses one’s search on blawgs (Tim’s blog post on BlawgSearch is here). It is in beta right now, but Tim and his crew are adding blawgs on a daily basis. While using it on a variety of issues over the past couple of days, I have found the coverage to be excellent already and far more focused than blawg searches on more generalized engines. Check it out and include it in your bookmarks. This looks like a winner.

Those darn “four-legged fire ants”

Posted on by
Reply

feral hog.JPGThis earlier post reported on the emerging market for the meat of feral hogs, which are a fixture of rural (and, increasingly, suburban) Texas.
The Chronicle’s Shannon Tompkins takes the discussion of earlier post several steps further and provides this excellent overview of the feral hog phenomenom in Texas. The battle between humans and hogs is a fascinating story involving a myriad of subjects — including biology, ecology, farming, hunting and game policy — and it appears that the hogs are winning that battle!

Phoenix’s light rail boondoggle

Posted on by
2

Metrorail car-Houston4.jpgThe dubious economic nature of Houston’s light rail system is a common topic on this blog, so I took interest in this insightful Warren Meyer post that ponders why a light rail system is being built in Warren’s hometown of Phoenix, which is one of the few metro U.S. areas that may be even less conducive to such a system than Houston.
Given the inefficiency and inflexibility of such systems, Warren wonders who supports such boondoggles and suspects that a few powerful businesspeople are using the rail line in an effort to jumpstart the misguided goal of establishing a dominant downtown area in the decentralized Phoenix metro area. Add in a few high-minded environmentalists and many others who are simply ignorant of the enormous cost relative to the benefit of such systems and, as Peter Gordon wryly-noted awhile back:

“It adds up to a winning coalition.”

Unfortunately, as another Phoenix-area resident — Nobel Laureate Ed Prescott — reminded us recently, once such coalitions are successful in establishing a governmental policy subsidizing such boondoggles, it is much more difficult to end the public subsidy of the boondoggle than to start it in the first place.
By the way, Houston Metro’s subsidy of its light rail system has other perverse effects, such as the lack of security for one of the transit options that actually makes sense for the Houston area.

Ed Prescott’s five macroeconomic myths

Posted on by
Reply

edprescott4.jpg2004 Nobel Laureate Edward Prescott in this WSJ ($) op-ed lays out five macroeconomic myths and observes as follows:

The sky is not falling. No need to panic and start playing around with all sorts of policy responses. Despite the impression created by some economic pundits, the U.S. economy is not a delicate little machine that needs to be fine-tuned with exact precision by benevolent policymakers to keep from breaking down. Rather, it is large and complex, with millions of people making billions of decisions every day to improve their lives, the lives of their families and the health of their businesses.
On the one hand, it’s difficult to screw up all these well-intentioned people by crafting bad policy, but, on the other hand, it is of course entirely possible to do so. And once things are broken, they are much harder to fix. For example, all those doomsayers predicting a recession will get their wish if taxes are suddenly raised, new productivity-strangling regulations are enacted, the U.S. turns against free trade, or some combination thereof. Otherwise, we should expect 3% real growth, based on 2% increases in productivity and 1% population growth. This economy is fundamentally sound.
So we have to be careful that we don’t believe everything we read in the papers. Things are never as bad as the last data that was released, nor are they as good. Likewise, policy should not be revised at every turn, nor rules changed by political whim. Meaning, we should be careful about accepting conventional wisdom as, well, being wise. One of the great disciplines of economics is that it challenges us to question status quo thinking.

In other words, it’s hard to screw up something as big and complex as the U.S. economy, but we’re eminently capable of doing it with unnecessary and ill-advised policy moves. And it’s much harder to correct the bad policy than to screw up in the first place. That’s a good reason to support this.

The NFL Network’s one week special

Posted on by
Reply

nfl-network.JPGYou have to hand it to the owners of the National Football League — they recognize a public relations blunder when they see one coming.
As noted in earlier posts here and here, the NFL owners’ attempt to drive a hard bargain with cable companies that service most of the nation’s television viewers has backfired badly in regard to the owners’ NFL Network venture. The viewing marketplace couldn’t care less about the NFL Network’s product and the NFL owners have come off looking like petty moneygrubbers by not making a deal that allows most football fans to watch the NFL Network’s games. In the meantime, the NFL owners’ refusal to cut a deal with the cable companies meant that two post-season bowl games to be televised by the NFL Network — Houston’s Texas Bowl between Rutgers and Kansas State and the Insight Bowl pitting Texas Tech against Minnesota — would not be seen by most viewers in the nation.
Well, the huge collective yawn of viewers, combined with the growing crescendo from long-suffering Rutgers fans who were not going to be able to watch their team play in the Texas Bowl, has prompted the NFL owners to offer an olive branch — one week of free access to the NFL Network in the New York area during the week of the two bowl games.
Now, the only problem with the offer is that Time Warner — one of the largest cable companies in the country and the one that services most of Houston — has not decided whether to accept the NFL owners’ offer. Regadless, most football fans in Houston won’t see the game because the NFL owners’ offer is limited to the New York area.
Are you getting the same impression that I have that the NFL owners have overplayed their hand a bit on this one? ;^)

Krispy Kreme’s new strategy

Posted on by
Reply

krispy6.jpgThe mercurial rise and fall of Krispy Kreme used to be a common topic on this blog, so I took notice of an interesting observation about the company that the NY Times’ business columnist Floyd Norris recently made on his blog:

Krispy Kreme came out with some more sort-of numbers today, and the market liked it. Its stock rose 17 cents, to $9.98.
The doughnut company said sales were down, and that it continued to lose money in the quarter ended in October. But it said it couldnít get out a 10-Q report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, or calculate just how much it lost, because it was too busy working on older reports.
The company has not put out any reports for the current fiscal year, and is still missing one from the quarter than ended two years ago.
But the stock has done well. It is up 74 percent this year. Short-sellers still hate the company, with the last monthly report showing a short position of 19.3 million, more than 30 percent of the shares outstanding, but others think the glory days will return. Some of those shorts evidently cannot find shares to borrow, but hold on to their positions anyway. The company has been on the list of stocks with a large number of failures to deliver for 110 days.
When the New York Stock Exchange continues to list a company, and investors continue to embrace it despite long-delinquent filings, it is hard to see what incentive the company has to get the full numbers out. It promised the S.E.C. today that it ìintends to file the Exchange Act Reports at the earliest practicable date,î but did not speculate on when that might be.

In other words, the company is doing so poorly that it has almost crossed the line to doing well. ;^)

Not another dime

Posted on by
1

jail15.jpgCharles Kuffner, one of Houston’s best political bloggers, notes a small sign of progress (also here) in the seemingly relentless and misguided campaign of local governments to build expensive and unnecessary fiefdoms in the guise of large jails:

State Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, said there is no need for [Harris County] to spend at least $267 million building two jails when it could cut the inmate population at the county jail by allowing non-dangerous offenders out on bail before trial.
“I am very suspect whether there is a need for jail space,” said Whitmire, who chairs the Senate Criminal Justice Committee. “Harris County wouldn’t have an overcrowding problem at all if it had an effective pretrial release program.”
Whitmire said the Legislature, in the upcoming session, may look at ways to help reduce jail overcrowding, such as shorter sentences for some crimes.
Commissioners Court likely will ask voters next November to approve bonds for new jails that would add 4,600 beds.
County Judge Robert Eckels and other members of Commissioners Court said the jails are needed to reduce overcrowding now and in the coming decades.

As noted earlier here, the condition of the Harris County Jail has long been a civic embarrassment, but the solution is not simply to build more jails. As noted earlier here, Scott Henson has written this thorough and insightful analysis of the true problem with the Harris County Jails, which is overcrowding from sloppy and lazy processing of prisoners who do not need to be incarcerated pending their trial.
There are some powerful political forces — county commissioners, contractors, police unions, etc. — that benefit from and support this unending spiral of jail construction, while the constituencies supporting prisoners are not as powerful or well-funded. However, it is clear that the solution is not simply to build bigger and more expensive jails. Rather, building additional facilities should not even be a consideration unless or until Harris County adopts a sensible pre-trial release policy that frees up literally thousands of existing jail cells that are being wasted on folks who should not be in jail. Moreover, the county should also be required to fix the chronically deplorable condition of its existing jails before seeking to build more. This is a community issue — and in other communities as well — that should transcend party politics. But I doubt that it will.

Continental’s big news

Posted on by
2

Continental Airlines logo5.jpgThe big news story today in Houston is the announcement about Continental Airlines engaging in merger negotiations with Chicago-based United Airlines. Here are the stories from the Wall Street Journal ($), the NY Times, the Financial Times and the Houston Chronicle.
The bottom line on the proposed merger is that it’s a longshot for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that such mergers are traditionally complex and expensive. However, the fact that merger talks between the second-largest (United) and the fifth-largest airlines are taking place at all is a reflection that the airline industry is primed for a round of consolidations as the industry rebounds from the severe downturn that was inflamed by the effects of September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. United ended up in a long reorganization case under chapter 11 that it emerged from in early this year, but both Continental and United have absorbed higher fuel costs and added capacity, and are among the carriers that are expected to Improve financially in 2007. Mergers could help both airlines reduce overhead by eliminating overlapping routes.
One of the issues that mitigates against a merger between the two airlines is “golden share” that Northwest Airlines Corp. holds in Continental, which is a special voting series of Continental preferred stock Northwest holds in connection with a marketing alliance with Continental that does not expire until 2025. Thus, if a proposed merger requires shareholder approval of Continental, then Northwest could use those shares to block the merger. But Continental and United could simply structure around the golden share, such as having Continental buying another airline so long as such a transaction didn’t require Continental shareholders’ approval.
Also, United is clearly playing the field right now. The airline has recently approached Delta Airlines, which is currently wallowing in a chapter 11 case, regarding a merger through a chapter 11 plan of reorganization as an alternative to a hostile takeover bid that US Airways is currently pursuing.
Continental shares declined yesterday 5.6% to $42.88, but they continue to trade near the top of their past year range. The stock of UAL, United’s parent, also is trading near its 52-week high after closing down 2.9% at $43.23. This is the type of deal that will either gain momentum quickly or fizzle out, so stay tuned.

Evaluating the Jennings deal

Posted on by
1

Jason Jennings 121306.jpgThe Stros made their second big off-season acquisition on Tuesday as they acquired Denver Rockies ace and former Baylor star Jason Jennings and journeyman pitcher Miguel Asencio in trade for CF Willy Taveras, promising starter Jason Hirsh and mercurial starter Taylor Buchholz. A friend who was driving at the time called to alert me to the deal and to inform that the sports talk shows were bashing the trade. Although the Stros first deal was questionable, this one is not.
Giving up young pitchers such as Hirsh and Buchholz always risks depletion of pitching depth, but that is the Stros’ strength right now, so they could afford to give up something in that area. Jennings is a 28 year-old, emerging star and an undervalued talent in Denver (he will make “only” $5.5 million next season) where his pitching stats suffered until the club started storing baseballs in a Coors Field humidor over the past couple of seasons. His career runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) is only 23 in five seasons, but he is coming off his best season in which he had a 25 RSAA and a 3.78 ERA. If the Stros can lock him up after the 2007 season, then Jennings and Roy O can anchor the starting pitching rotation for years to come. And if the Stros re-sign Roger Clemens for at least a portion of the upcoming season, then the Stros have a potentially league-leading rotation, particularly when you add in the recently-acquired Woody Williams.
Meanwhile, what the Stros gave up was mostly hat and little cattle at this point. Taveras’ limitations are well-chronicled, so he will be replaced by a player — either Chris Burke, Jason Lane or Hunter Pence — who will generate more runs for the Stros than Taveras. The 25 year-old Buchholz has great stuff, but he mostly stunk when given an opportunity in the starting rotation last season (-17 RSAA; 5.89 ERA) and has never been able to pitch a full season of professional ball because of injury breakdown. The 24 year-old Hirsh is a potential star as he dominated the Texas League last season, but the fact of the matter is that Jennings was a better pitcher than Hirsh at his age and it is unlikely that Hirsh will develop into as good a pitcher as Jennings is right now. So, my sense is that the Stros were smart to overpay a bit with potential for an established frontline starter.
Think of Acensio, the throw-in on the deal, as sort of a right-handed Carlos Hernandez-type. He was a promising pitcher with the Royals as a 21 year-old back in 2001, but he broke down in 2004 and underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He hasn’t pitched much in the majors since then, but still has mid-90’s stuff and a wicked change up. He’s one of the guys who we might never hear about it again, but he’s young enough to take a flyer on to see whether he can develop into a middle reliever in a couple of years.
The bottom line — the Stros gave up a potential solid starting pitcher in Hirsh for a proven starting pitcher in Jennings who is not much older. Ascencio and Buchholz are essentially a wash, and the Stros improved by subtraction in getting rid of Taveras, who cost the Stros 30 runs his two seasons with the club over what an average National League player (think Chris Burke) would have produced for the club. That’s a good trade for the Stros in my book.
Williams’ career stats are below and a pdf of the same is here. The abbreviations for the pitching stats are here.

Continue reading →