At the quarter pole of this season, I observed the following:
Stros management, for all their declarations of trying to field a playoff contender, is really biding its time this season as Biggio trudges toward his 3,000th hit. There is simply no way that this club will be much better than a .500 ballclub with its current starting pitching staff and Biggio, Everett, Ausmus and the pitcher burdening the hitting lineup on most nights. The Stros should be honest and concede that the club is attempting to compete as well as possible while supporting Biggio’s climb toward 3,000 hits and dispense with the ruse that this club, as presently configured, has any meaningful shot at the playoffs.
Well, as the Stros (44-57) have now completed 62.5% of the season (prior periodic reviews are here), Stros management has apparently embraced my suggestion. Rather than promoting the club’s competitiveness, Stros management has decided to make the remainder of the season the Craig Biggio Good-Bye Tour, beginning with Bidg’s well-orchestrated retirement announcement and game-winning, grand slam homer earlier in the week. Ah, the memories!
Unfortunately, when Biggio is retired and gone after this season, Stros management will have to figure out what to do next. As I have been pointing out for several years now, the ballclub has been in decline since 2001, although extraordinary pitching staff performances in 2004 and 2005 masked the decline during those two playoff seasons. But this season, the decline of the club has hit the club’s traditional strength — that is, pitching — and the result is that the Stros may finish this season with the worst record in the National League.
Interestingly, this club’s 44-57 record through 62.5% of the season is about the same as the club’s record last season during the middle 60% of the season (42-55). Only good performances during the first and final 20% segments of the 2006 season allowed that club to finish two games over .500 (82-80). Now, in the first five eighth segments of this season, the Stros’ record has been been consistently mediocre or worse — 9-12, 11-9, 6-14, 8-12, and 10-10 in the most recent 20 game segment. So, the accelerating downward trend that started during the middle of last season has continued this season.
Although some folks continue to be confused about what ails the Stros, a dramatic and pervasive downturn in pitching remains the big problem. The Stros’ staff — which has been among the best in the National League over the past three seasons — has given up 55 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have allowed in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). That places the Stros staff 15th among the 16 National League teams with only the Cardinals’ staff being worse, and only three Stros pitchers — Roy Oswalt (5 RSAA/3.80 ERA), Chad Qualls (1 RSAA/3.83 ERA) and Brad Lidge (10 RSAA/1.94 ERA) — have saved more runs this season than an average National League pitcher would have saved in the same number of innings.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ hitters continue to be about National League-average (5 runs created against average, explained here), which is right in the middle (8th) of the 16 National League teams. Although National League-average in hitting is far better than the past two Stros squads achieved, it is not close to being good enough to make up for the Stros’ abysmal pitching. As a result, the Stros’ combined RCAA/RSAA score of -50 so far this season reflects that they continue to be a far below-average National League team.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:
