At the quarter pole of this season, I observed the following:

Stros management, for all their declarations of trying to field a playoff contender, is really biding its time this season as Biggio trudges toward his 3,000th hit. There is simply no way that this club will be much better than a .500 ballclub with its current starting pitching staff and Biggio, Everett, Ausmus and the pitcher burdening the hitting lineup on most nights. The Stros should be honest and concede that the club is attempting to compete as well as possible while supporting Biggio’s climb toward 3,000 hits and dispense with the ruse that this club, as presently configured, has any meaningful shot at the playoffs.

Well, as the Stros (44-57) have now completed 62.5% of the season (prior periodic reviews are here), Stros management has apparently embraced my suggestion. Rather than promoting the club’s competitiveness, Stros management has decided to make the remainder of the season the Craig Biggio Good-Bye Tour, beginning with Bidg’s well-orchestrated retirement announcement and game-winning, grand slam homer earlier in the week. Ah, the memories!
Unfortunately, when Biggio is retired and gone after this season, Stros management will have to figure out what to do next. As I have been pointing out for several years now, the ballclub has been in decline since 2001, although extraordinary pitching staff performances in 2004 and 2005 masked the decline during those two playoff seasons. But this season, the decline of the club has hit the club’s traditional strength — that is, pitching — and the result is that the Stros may finish this season with the worst record in the National League.
Interestingly, this club’s 44-57 record through 62.5% of the season is about the same as the club’s record last season during the middle 60% of the season (42-55). Only good performances during the first and final 20% segments of the 2006 season allowed that club to finish two games over .500 (82-80). Now, in the first five eighth segments of this season, the Stros’ record has been been consistently mediocre or worse — 9-12, 11-9, 6-14, 8-12, and 10-10 in the most recent 20 game segment. So, the accelerating downward trend that started during the middle of last season has continued this season.
Although some folks continue to be confused about what ails the Stros, a dramatic and pervasive downturn in pitching remains the big problem. The Stros’ staff — which has been among the best in the National League over the past three seasons — has given up 55 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have allowed in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). That places the Stros staff 15th among the 16 National League teams with only the Cardinals’ staff being worse, and only three Stros pitchers — Roy Oswalt (5 RSAA/3.80 ERA), Chad Qualls (1 RSAA/3.83 ERA) and Brad Lidge (10 RSAA/1.94 ERA) — have saved more runs this season than an average National League pitcher would have saved in the same number of innings.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ hitters continue to be about National League-average (5 runs created against average, explained here), which is right in the middle (8th) of the 16 National League teams. Although National League-average in hitting is far better than the past two Stros squads achieved, it is not close to being good enough to make up for the Stros’ abysmal pitching. As a result, the Stros’ combined RCAA/RSAA score of -50 so far this season reflects that they continue to be a far below-average National League team.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

In my most recent periodic review, I provided some background on how the Stros got to this point. Now that Stros management has conceded that this season’s club is playing out the string, here’s an outline for what management should do for the remainder of the season:

Preserve pitching assets. Oswalt has carried as heavy a load as any National League starter over the past six seasons. The chest muscle strain that he is currently dealing with is a clear overuse injury, and the Stros should make sure that Oswalt does not pitch that injury into a chronic condition. There is simply no good reason for the Stros not to moderate Oswalt’s innings over the remainder of the season to lessen the toll on his body. Similarly, Chris Sampson (-2 RSAA/4.29 ERA) had never pitched the number of innings in a season that he has pitched to date this season, so he is a high risk of breaking down. As with Oswalt, the Stros would be smart to limit his starts over the remainder of the season, just as they should not hurry Brandon Backe back to the MLB this season in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Finally, Lidge needs arthoscopic knee surgery to remove loose cartilage and — absent a trade that makes sense — the Stros should shut him down and allow him to have the surgery now so that his rehab can be completed well before next season. Lidge has never had the best pitching mechanics, so even a minor injury can cause a pitcher to adjust their mechanics, which often results in another injury that is more severe than the initial one. Pitching assets in Major League Baseball are extremely valuable and nothing would be gained by the Stros from risking damage to these assets over the the remainder of this lost season.
Develop pitching assets, but carefully. Dovetailing with the first recommendation, the Stros should undertake a concerted program during the remainder of the season to provide their young pitching talent some MLB experience. For example, Matt Albers (-6 RSAA/5.19 ERA) should be given every opportunity to establish whether he is capable of being a starting pitcher on the MLB level or whether he is destined for a Qualls-like existence in the bullpen. Similarly, farmhands such as Troy Patton, Juan Gutierrez, Chance Douglass, Felipe Paulino and Brad James should be given a taste of big league hitters to gauge their progress. None of these young pitchers are ready for extended exposure to MLB hitters, but getting their feet wet will provide important information regarding whether these are prospects who may be able to contribute in the next year or so. Trotting a washed up Woody Williams (-13 RSAA/5.03 ERA) out to the mound every fourth day for the remainder of the season doesn’t reveal anything of comparable value.
Play Morgan Ensberg, Chris Burke, Jason Lane and Luke Scott every day. Each of these players has been a productive player for the Stros at one point in their careers, but each of them has also been mishanded during their time with the Stros. Ensberg’s situation is explained here, while Burke and Lane have been blocked (see also here) by the Stros’ indulgence of Biggio. Similarly, Scott has been yo-yoed in right field this season while fighting nagging injuries despite the fact he remains one of the half-dozen hitters on the club who has generated a positive RCAA this season. The only way that to tell what a big league player is likely to produce in the future is to give an extended period of day-to-day playing time (and, in Burke’s case, at the position he is best suited to play). These three players deserve that opportunity. With nothing to lose and Hunter Pence’s injury keeping him out for the next six weeks or so, let’s see what these players can do in an extended, undisturbed period of play.
Trade judiciously. As noted here, the Stros overall legacy of trades is not exactly encouraging. Moreover, it’s far easier to add to that legacy than to pull off one of those one-sided Larry Anderson-for-Jeff Bagwell deals. Nevertheless, the Stros do have a number of players who could be useful for a contending team down the stretch. Right now, this season’s trading market appears to be a buyer’s market with contending teams being relunctant to part with young MLB prospects for proven talent that can help down the stretch of a playoff drive. The Stros don’t need any more average-to-below average big league players, so I’d prefer that Stros management hold out and take a flyer on some young prospects with a problem or two who nonetheless have the potential to bloom as Pence did while shooting through the minors.

It wasn’t that long ago that Stros management was building around a what appeared to be a solid core group of young players developed within the Stros organization consisting of starting pitchers Oswalt, Carlos Hernandez, Wade Miller and Tim Redding, and emerging hitters Lance Berkman and Richard Hidalgo. Unfortunately, only Oswalt and Berkman were able to make it through the rigors of Major League competition to emerge as bonafide stars and, as noted here earlier, the Stros did not do a good job of choosing and developing talent during the five year period of 1998-2002 to replace the players who did not blossom into consistent above-average players. With this season’s club bottoming out with one of the worst records in MLB, it’s high time for the club’s management to begin the hard work of developing a new core of young players to take the baton from the Biggio-Bagwell era, the most successful period in the history of the ballclub. A fan base now accustomed to a long period of overall success expects nothing less.
After hosting the Padres (54-46) in a four game set over this weekend, the Stros go on the road to play the Braves (54-47) and the Marlins (48-53) to start August before returning home to meet the NL Central leaders, the Cubs (53-46) and Brewers (56-45) in the second week of next month. Look for the next periodic review in mid-August or so.