So, now that the Stros are done with that, where does the club go from here?
As the Stros (34-47) reached the halfway point of the 2007 season, that’s the question confronting the owner Drayton McLane and General Manager Tim Purpura. The club went 8-12 during the fourth 1/8th segment of the season after going 9-12, 11-9 and 6-14 during the first three (prior periodic season reviews here). That geneally abysmal performance removed any fleeting doubt that the Stros could compete for the National League Central division title. The Stros finished the first half of the season 13.5 games behind the division-leading Brewers (47-33), good for only fifth place in a mediocre six team division.
How has this happened to a club that is only a season and a half removed from a World Series appearance? As noted here earlier this season, some folks who cover the club on a regular basis don’t even know the answer to that question. However, it’s clear that the 2007 Stros have taken a major step backward because of an overall decline in pitching. Through 81 games, the Stros’ pitching staff has given up 65 more runs than a merely average National League club would have given up in the same number of innings (runs saved against average or RSAA, explained here) and an astounding 139 more runs than the best National League pitching staff (the Padres). The aggregate RSAA of the Stros’ staff is currently dead last in the 16 team National League, a startling development for a pitching staff that has been among the best in MLB over the past three seasons. The pitching staff’s performance is by far the worst by a Stros staff since the 2000 season, when a similar meltdown during the club’s initial season in Minute Maid Park resulted in a -69 RSAA and a disastrous 72-90 record, the only losing record for the Stros in the past 15 seasons until this season.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ hitting has actually taken an upswing recently after meandering below National League-average for the first 3/8ths of the season. Improved hitting from slugger Lance Berkman (12 RCAA/.386 OBP/.434 SLG/.820 OPS), continued excellent production from Hunter Pence (16/.358/.562/.920), and solid contributions from Mark Loretta (10/.410/.441/.851), Carlos Lee (6/.346/.514/.860), Mike Lamb (8/.365/.475/.840) and Luke Scott (4/.335/.465/.800) resulted in the Stros generating, through 81 games of the season, 18 more runs than an average National League club would have created using the same number of outs (runs created against average or RCAA, defined here) through the halfway point of the season. That’s good for 6th place in the National League, the best performance for Stros hitters since the 2004 club’s late season surge allowed the Stros to finish 7th in RCAA among the 16 National League teams.
Unfortunately, the Stros’ improved hitting does not come close to compensating for the Stros’ overall atrocious pitching. By adding a club’s overall RCAA and RSAA numbers, the sum provides a good measure for evaluating a club’s overall performance relative to an average National League club, which would have a combined RCAA/RSAA score of precisely zero. The Stros’ RCAA/RSAA deficit of -47 this season is a clear indication that the Stros are currently a far below-average National League team.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

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