In driving back to the office today, I was listening to Charlie Pallilo — who, like me, analyzes baseball using mostly objective criteria — and reminded me of a point that I meant to make in my most recent periodic review of the Stros season — that is, subjective perceptions about baseball are usually quite inaccurate (a point noted in this post from the midway point of the 2006 season).
A case in point this season is Stros LF Carlos Lee. The consensus among most of the media that covers the Stros is that Lee is having a great season and that 1B Lance Berkman is having a lousy season. Well, that latter part of that statement is certainly correct — Berkman, by his lofty standards (career 357 RCAA/.414 OBA/.556 SLG/.971 OPS), is having a bad season (2007 stats: 4 RCAA/.383/.381/.765).
However, the reality is that Lee has not been any more productive than Berkman. Going into last night’s game with the A’s, Lee has generated exactly the same number of runs as Berkman (i.e., 4) over what an average National League hitter would have created for the Stros using the same number of outs as Lee has used. Lee’s key stat line (4/.340/.496/.836) is a bit better than Berkman’s this season, but not all that great by league leader standards. Moreover, Lee’s high number of RBI’s (52) is largely the result of where he hits in the order, not any great hitting performance. Lee’s hitting is largely undermined by the fact that he leads the league in grounding into double plays (14) and his low walk rate (18, compared with Berkman’s 46).
As noted earlier here, Lee’s career numbers (82/.344/515/.859) are nowhere near as good as Berkman’s and really not all that much better than 3B Morgan Ensberg, who is mostly riding the bench these days. Even Luke Scott, who has a 3 RCAA for the season, is about as productive as Lee, while Mark Loretta — who most folks believe has been much more productive than Scott this seaon — has actually been slightly less productive (2 RCAA) than Scott. Meanwhile, Biggio — who has been one of the least productive hitters in the National League from June 12, 2006 through June 12, 2007 (-31 RCAA!) continues to leadoff regularly.
The point of all this is that baseball is not rocket science, but many folks still make it more complicated than it is. Over a long season, a club’s best hitters based on career performance are generally going to produce the most runs for the team. The Stros need to play Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, and Hunter Pence regularly, fill in the other spots with the most productive players available and and then let the chips fall where they may. It’s highly improbable that the Stros will score more runs taking any other approach.