As the Stros reach the quarter pole of the 2007 season, the club’s prospects on the surface seem to be somewhat improved over the dreary first eighth of the season (prior season reviews here). The Stros (20-21) stabilized a bit during the second eighth of the season with a 11-9 record marked by overall improved hitting and pitching, and the spark provided by the arrival of rookie centerfielder, Hunter Pence (9 RCAA/.392 OBA/.652 SLG/1.044 OPS). Despite those positive signs, however, there is nothing that has occurred in regard to the direction of the club over the past 20 games that indicates that this Stros team has much of a chance at competing seriously for a playoff spot.
Through a quarter of the season, the Stros have scored 2 more runs than an average National League team would have scored using the same number of outs as the Stros have generated this season to date (“RCAA,” explained here). That ranks 7th out of the 16 National League teams and trails National League Central rivals the Brewers (26-16 record/29 RCAA, 4th in NL) and the Cubs (19-21/7 RCAA/6th). The Stros had a -13 RCAA during the first 21 games of the season, which ranked 10th among National League teams at the time.
The Stros’ pitching has improved modestly, too. The Stros pitching staff has saved 3 more runs over what an average National League pitching staff would have saved over the same number of innings (“RSAA,” explained here), which ranks 9th in the National League and behind NL rivals the Brewers (13 RSAA/5th in NL) and the Cubs (9 RSAA/6th). The Stros pitching staff had saved 7 fewer runs than an average NL staff during the first 21 games of the season, which ranked 13th among the NL clubs at the time.
Despite this mild improvement, I’m still not bullish on the Stros’ prospects this season. The Brewers are a clearly superior club through the first quarter of the season and the loser of the National League East — either the Mets (27-14) or the Braves (25-16) — appear to be the likely NL Wild Card team. So, the Stros are probably going to have to win the NL Central in order to achieve a playoff spot and I do not see Stros management making the hard decisions necessary for the Stros to overtake the Brewers and probably the Cubs.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

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