As the Stros reach the quarter pole of the 2007 season, the club’s prospects on the surface seem to be somewhat improved over the dreary first eighth of the season (prior season reviews here). The Stros (20-21) stabilized a bit during the second eighth of the season with a 11-9 record marked by overall improved hitting and pitching, and the spark provided by the arrival of rookie centerfielder, Hunter Pence (9 RCAA/.392 OBA/.652 SLG/1.044 OPS). Despite those positive signs, however, there is nothing that has occurred in regard to the direction of the club over the past 20 games that indicates that this Stros team has much of a chance at competing seriously for a playoff spot.
Through a quarter of the season, the Stros have scored 2 more runs than an average National League team would have scored using the same number of outs as the Stros have generated this season to date (“RCAA,” explained here). That ranks 7th out of the 16 National League teams and trails National League Central rivals the Brewers (26-16 record/29 RCAA, 4th in NL) and the Cubs (19-21/7 RCAA/6th). The Stros had a -13 RCAA during the first 21 games of the season, which ranked 10th among National League teams at the time.
The Stros’ pitching has improved modestly, too. The Stros pitching staff has saved 3 more runs over what an average National League pitching staff would have saved over the same number of innings (“RSAA,” explained here), which ranks 9th in the National League and behind NL rivals the Brewers (13 RSAA/5th in NL) and the Cubs (9 RSAA/6th). The Stros pitching staff had saved 7 fewer runs than an average NL staff during the first 21 games of the season, which ranked 13th among the NL clubs at the time.
Despite this mild improvement, I’m still not bullish on the Stros’ prospects this season. The Brewers are a clearly superior club through the first quarter of the season and the loser of the National League East — either the Mets (27-14) or the Braves (25-16) — appear to be the likely NL Wild Card team. So, the Stros are probably going to have to win the NL Central in order to achieve a playoff spot and I do not see Stros management making the hard decisions necessary for the Stros to overtake the Brewers and probably the Cubs.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

The reasons the Stros will likely not be contenders this season can be summed up in two reasons: inadequate starting pitching and Manager Phil Garner’s stubborn personnel decisions. The remarkably consistent Roy Oswalt (8 RSAA/2.83 ERA) continues to excel, but the following are the numbers for the other currently active starting pitchers:
Chris Sampson 1 RSAA/3.56
Wandy Rodriguez -2 RSAA/4.33 ERA
Woody Williams -8 RSAA/5.10 ERA
Matt Albers -8 RSAA/6.51 ERA
Jason Jennings (1 RSAA/3.0 ERA, who has been sidelined for the past month with elbow tendonitis after pitching only 12 innings this season, will probably return in a week or so, which will allow the Stros to drop one of the unproductive pitchers from the rotation, probably Albers. But that change will bring only a marginal improvement as this group simply does not appear to have the potential to save the number of runs above that of an average National League staff that the strong starting pitching staffs of the past several seasons provided the Stros. Thankfully, the relievers have all been at least average or slightly above-average in terms of saving runs, which has allowed the staff’s overall RSAA to remain near average.
By the way, despite the mediocrity of the other starters, Roy O continues to put together the foundation of a Hall of Fame career. With his latest strong performance against the Giants, Roy O has now moved into the top 10 pitchers of all-time for career RSAA as of the age of 29:

Meanwhile, Garner’s acquiesence to playing the increasingly unproductive Biggio (-3/.288/.418/.706) and batting him at the top of the lineup is causing all sorts of problems for the club. Make no mistake about it, Biggio’s insistence on making the club endure his march to 3,000 hits is tarnishing his certain Hall of Fame career. Since June 12th of last season, Biggio has generated 22 fewer runs than an average National League hitter would have generated using the same number of outs as Biggio has. To put that in perspective, Biggio has been only moderately more productive than Ausmus (-36 RCAA since June 12, 2006) and Everett (-39 RCAA since June 12, 2006) — two of the worst hitters in Stros history — during that period of time and far less productive than Morgan Ensberg (-4 since June 12, 2006), who is now sitting squarely on the Stros bench. Biggio is also a serious defensive liability as his range is limited and he cannot throw with much authority any longer.
There is other collateral damage from indulging Biggio, too. Chris Burke (-1/.344/.388/.732), who has been blocked by Biggio at 2B for two seasons now despite the fact that he would be a more productive player than Biggio at this point in their relative careers, is now back in AAA Round Rock after Pence replaced him in centerfield. Because of Biggio’s drag on the lineup, Garner didn’t believe that he could afford to be patient with Ensberg (-4/.315/.321/.636), the Stros best 3B, during his slow start this season, so now Mike Lamb (5/.438/.491/.929) is getting most of the starts at 3B. Unfortunately, Lamb is a brutal defensive player, so now the Stros infield has two below-average defensive components in Lamb and Biggio. Meanwhile, the black hole in the Stros lineup from the 7th through the leadoff positions continues with no relief in sight and only improved hitting from the core of the Stros lineup of Lance Berkman (9/.432/.393/.825), Carlos Lee (4/.348/.540/.888), Luke Scott (1/.325/.436/.761) and the irrepressible Pence has kept the Stros scoring around an average number of runs.
Thus, my sense is that Stros management, for all their declarations of trying to field a playoff contender, is really biding its time this season as Biggio trudges toward his 3,000th hit. There is simply no way that this club will be much better than a .500 ballclub with its current starting pitching staff and Biggio, Everett, Ausmus and the pitcher burdening the hitting lineup on most nights. The Stros should be honest and concede that the club is attempting to compete as well as possible while supporting Biggio’s climb toward 3,000 hits and dispense with the ruse that this club, as presently configured, has any meaningful shot at the playoffs.
The Stros finish up their interleague series with the Rangers (16-26) over this weekend and then hit the road for three games with the Giants (20-20) and four with the Diamondbacks (22-21) before returning home at the end of the month for a six game homestand against the Reds (16-26) and the Cardinals (16-23).