Why it’s not a good idea to soak the energy companies

mars6.jpgWhen you meet someone who doesn’t quite get the correlation between high energy company profits and the capital-intensive nature of oil and gas production, pass along this NY Times article to them:

As oil consumption grows and access to most oil-rich regions becomes increasingly restricted, companies are venturing farther out to sea, drilling deeper than ever in their quest for energy. The next oil frontier ó and the next great challenge for oil explorers ó lies below 10,000 feet of water, through five miles of hard rock, thick salt and tightly packed sands.
ìItís not a place for the timid,î said Paul K. Siegele, the vice president for deepwater exploration at Chevron, which commissioned a survey by the Neptune. ìItís a place where a lot of people have lost their shirts.î
To picture the challenge, imagine flying above New York City at 30,000 feet and aiming a drill tip the size of a coffee can at the pitcherís mound in Yankee Stadium. Then imagine doing it in the dark, at $100 million a go.
Even after hitting pay dirt, it will take another decade and billions of dollars to transform oil from these ultra-deep reserves into gasoline. Some of the technology to pump the sludge from these depths, at these pressures and temperatures, has not yet been developed; only about a dozen ships can drill wells that deep, and no one knows for sure how much oil is down there.
While most people regard affordable and abundant supplies as an essential element of the nationís prosperity, few realize how complex and costly the quest has become, even in the nationís own backyard. At the same time, some experts argue that the industry is nearing the limits of what it can do to maintain a growing supply of fossil fuels.

Amen. Read the entire article.

The Best Vegas Sports Book

Stardust casino.jpgIn late 1980, I helped my friend, prominent criminal defense lawyer David Chesnoff, move to Las Vegas. Inasmuch as it was the first trip to Vegas for either of us, Dave and I ventured on to the Strip and quickly discovered the Stardust Casino’s venerable Sports Book. For a couple of single young lawyers with a little bit of money and a lifelong interest in sports and betting, Dave and I thought we had died and gone to Heaven.
Over the years, the Stardust’s Sports Book has been surpassed by bigger and glitzier sports books at the newer Vegas hotels and casinos. Nevertheless, it was with a touch of sadness that I read this fine Jeff Haney/Las Vegas Sun article on the closing of the Stardust’s Sports Book last week. Interestingly, the success of the Stardust’s Sports Book was based on a fundamentally sound business principle — hire the most competent people available and then let’em rip:

The secret of the Stardust’s success, [Scotty Schettler, the boss of the Stardust sports book from 1983 to 1991] said, lay in the skill of its oddsmakers. They not only could create point spreads with uncanny accuracy, but also set betting limits – higher than most, but not unmanageable – with precision.
“We were a true ‘book joint,’ ” Schettler said. “We knew the limits we could get away with that would give us the maximum amount of action laying 11-10 both ways.” [. . .]
For six years in a row, the book never sustained a losing month, Schettler said.
“The other guys said the Stardust was lucky,” Schettler said. “I say it was skill.”
A bookmaker in his native western Pennsylvania as a teen, Schettler held others from that part of the nation in high esteem.
“I hired all guys from back East,” he said. “Kansas City was the furthest west I ever hired anybody from. They were bookmakers – no suits and ties.”

What a place. There is nothing quite like the feeling of nailing and collecting on a three-game parley for the first time. Thank you, Stardust. Rest in peace.

Rumblings from Aggieland

cainemutiny2.jpgIt’s not been a pleasant week in Aggieland.
As noted in Monday’s weekly local football report, Aggie head coach Dennis Franchione made several dubious decisions late in last Saturday night’s 17-16 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners. In particular, Aggies everywhere are wondering why Coach Fran decided to have Aggie QB Stephen McGee — who was passing poorly in the game anyway — throw a pass on 3rd and goal at the Sooners 2 yard line late in the game down 17-10 rather than simply hand the ball to the Aggies 275 lbs RB, Javorskie Lane on 3rd down and even 4th down, if necessary. After McGee was forced to throw the ball away under heavy pressure on the 3rd down play, Coach Fran settled for one of the most unpopular field goals in the history of Aggieland on 4th down.
Well, all of that went over about like the proverbial turd in the punch bowl in Aggieland and reopened the lingering doubts that many Aggie fans have about Coach Fran from last year’s disastrous season (see here and here). It was in that volatile environment that Coach Fran faced media questions on Tuesday about his decision, and this is what he had to say:

“Hindsight is always easy, and you certainly rethink everything that you do in situations. We wouldn’t have called the play on third down that we called if we didn’t think it was going to work.”
“Well, a lot of those [short yardage plays in which Lane has been successful] are not on the 2-yard line where defenses are bunched down as close as they are. A lot of them are in the field in a little bit different situations.”

Apparently, Coach Fran was unaware of the fact that Lane had previously carried the ball on 3rd & 4th downs this season 27 times, resulting in 18 first downs and 6 TD’s. In other words, an 89% success rate. Moreover, Lane has not been stopped short of a 1st down on 3rd or 4th down in the Ags’ last seven games, including all six of the Aggies’ Big 12 conference games. On 16 of his 18 successful 1st down conversions, Lane has run for more yardage than needed to make the 1st down.
In light of these facts, the rabid Aggie fans — who were not pleased with the call to begin with — are livid now.
With tough games looming at home against Nebraska and at Austin against Texas, the Aggies are squarely facing a potential three game losing streak to close the regular season and a minor bowl game, which will not sit well with most of the Aggie fan base. Win one of the next two games and the Ags will finish 9-3 and probably head to San Diego’s Holiday Bowl, which most Aggies would consider a reasonably successful season given last year’s disastrous season. Win both games and the Ags would finish 10-2 and head to the Cotton Bowl, which no one could complain about. Regardless of whether the Aggies win either of their next two games, my sense is that Coach Fran is safe for at least one more season. However, if the Aggies get blown out in both of those games — not likely for a team that is only five points away from being undefeated — then all bets are off.