On the Iraqi counterinsurgency and radical Islam

Keegan John.jpgIn this short review of Thomas Ricks’ new book, Fiasco (Penguin July, 2006), renowned British military historian and author Sir John Keegan (previous posts here) provides a typically lucid explanation of “how a brilliantly executed invasion turned into a messy counterinsurgency struggle.” Keegan concludes with the following observation:

[W]hat may underlie the whole insurgency, . . . is the rise of Islamic militancy across the Muslim world.
America was so certain that what it had to offer–modern government in an incorrupt and democratic form–was so obviously desirable that it failed altogether to understand that the Iraqis wanted something else, which is self-government in an Islamic form. It is too late now to start again.
All that can be hoped is that the U.S. Army will prevail in its counterinsurgency and, as Mr. Ricks’s gripping accounts of the troops in action suggest, it may still. His description of Marines “attacking into an ambush” leaves one in no doubt that American soldiers know combat secrets that their enemies do not and cannot match. Whether pure military skills will win the war, however, cannot be predicted.

Meanwhile, in this NY Times op-ed, Yale fellow Irshad Manji, author of The Trouble with Islam Today: A Muslimís Call for Reform in Her Faith (St. Martin’s 2004) reminds us that radical Islamic jihadists do not require foreign policy grievances to justify their violence, and that support of responsible Islamic leadership is the key to success in the Middle East:

Whether in Britain or America, those who claim to speak for Muslims have a responsibility to the majority, which wants to reconcile Islam with pluralism. Whatever their imperial urges, it is not for Tony Blair or George W. Bush to restore Islamís better angels. That duty ó and glory ó goes to Muslims.

And finally, Will Wilkinson points to this wonderful, short Bertrand Russell essay that identifies one of the key human dynamics underlying not only radical Muslin jihadists, but demagogues in any culture:

Ignore fact and reason, live entirely in the world of your own fantastic and myth-producing passions; do this whole-heartedly and with conviction, and you will become one of the prophets of your age.

An underappreciated factor in NFL games

referee_50942.jpgAaron Schatz is the lead author of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 (prior post here), which is an innovative effort to develop the same type of objective statistical framework for evaluating professional football players that Bill James and other sabermetricians have made standard in evaluating Major League Baseball players. I have read much of the first two Football Prospectus editions that have been published, and I recommend that you pick up this season’s edition if you are interested in the NFL and the evaluation of football players.
In this interesting NY Times article, Schatz takes on an issue in regard to NFL games that the NFL hierarchy does not enjoy talking about — that is, the wide discrepancy in the number of penalties called in NFL games between the various referee crews that call such games.
As Schatz notes, one of the Super Bowl participants could well have been determined by that factor last season as the Seattle Seahawks barely survived their November game against the New York Giants even though the officiating crew called an astounding 19 penalties against the Giants (the average NFL team was penalized 8.5 times a game last year). Not surprisingly, the crew that officiated that game called more penalties than any other NFL referee crew last season. Schatz goes on to observe that certain crews tend to call substantially more of certain types of penalties — such as false starts and pass interference — than other crews.
The NFL promotes the image that its games are decided on the field by the players and their coaches. But Schatz’s research is indicating that who referees a particular game may be as big a factor as the participants.

Update on Barbaro’s condition

barbaro eating roses.jpgThis NY Times article provides an update on the rehabilitation of Kentucky Derby champion Barbaro’s injured leg and related complications. Previous posts on Barbaro are here. The bottom line is that Barbaro is not out of the woods by any means, but is showing progress. Interestingly, the biggest problem that the horse faces in his fight for survival is not the original injury, but an infection to the hoof that often occurs after such an injury.

The WSJ said what about the Enron Task Force?

The Wall Street Journal has had a spotty record in covering the corporate scandals that emanated from the stock market bubble of the late 1990’s, as noted earlier here and here) in regard to its coverage of the Enron case.

In the better-late-than-never department, the WSJ Editorial Board published this editorial ($) today entitled “Enron Overkill” that decries the Enron Task Force’s hyper-aggressive use of the honest services statute to obtain unjust convictions of the four Merrill Lynch executives in the Nigerian Barge case, which resulted in a rebuke of the Task Force’s tactics from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

The WSJ editorial criticizes the federal government’s broad use of the vague honest services statute as a trump card in white-collar criminal prosecutions. But after failing to place the issue in the context of the more troubling trend of the government wrongfully prosecuting business interests, the WSJ editorial ends with this doozy of an observation about the Enron Task Force:

[The] Enron Task Force has a good record overall, bringing solid fraud cases and winning some 30 convictions. In the Merrill case, however, it stretched the law to send a political message — and has now received a well deserved rebuke.

The WSJ lauds the Task Force for doing a good job overall, but notes that they messed up in this one particular case and got caught?

In what parallel universe is America’s leading business newspaper living? Does the WSJ Editorial Board really believe that the following amounts to “a good record overall?”:

The Task Force’s inflammatory public relations campaign demonizing anything having to do with Enron;

The Task Force’s poor trial record involving former Enron executives (four convictions out of nine Enron executives tried to date) in a venue severely-biased against such executives;

The Task Force’s questionable tactic of bludgeoning former Enron executives into plea bargains;

The Task Force’s disingenuous market loss arguments in connection with the sentencings of the four Merrill Lynch executives in the Nigerian Barge case, which argument contradicted the Justice Department’s position in a case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court at the time;

The overreaching nature of the Task Force’s decision to prosecute Arthur Andersen out of business, which the Supreme Court noted in its unanimous reversal of that conviction, and the incalculable cost of such prosecutions;

The Task Force’s elicitation of false testimony from former Enron executive Ken Rice, its key witness in the Task Force’s miserably failed first Enron Broadband prosecution;

The Task Force threats toward two witnesses in the Broadband trial — Beth Stier and Lawrence Ciscon — who testified favorably for the defense in the first Enron Broadband trial and a Task Force prosecutor’s violation of the judge’s instruction not to question witnesses on certain subjects during that trial;

The Task Force’s dubious policy of fingering potential defense witnesses as either unindicted co-conspirators or targets of the Enron criminal investigation to deter such witnesses from testifying for defendants in the Enron criminal trials, including the strong evidence that the Task Force threatened witnesses favorable for the defense in the Lay-Skilling trial;

After bagging the conviction of Ken Lay, the Task Force prosecutors bragging to the NY Times that they had trumped up a weak case against Lay in order to get a conviction of the former Enron chairman;

The Task Force’s characterization of “harmless error” in regard to strong evidence of jury misconduct in the trial of former Enron Broadband executive Kevin Howard;

The appallingly arrogant “end justifies the means” attitude expressed by the former head of the Enron Task Force in regard to the prosecution of Arthur Andersen and other Enron-related cases;

The negative effect that the Justice Department’s criminalization of business mindset is having on how foreigners perceive the risk of investment in American business markets; and

The negative ripple effect that the Task Force’s tactics have had on such fundamental rights as the attorney-client privilege and the presumption of innocence in prosecutions of business executives.

If the WSJ editorial board considers the foregoing “a good record overall,” then I shudder to think about the carnage to justice and the rule of law that would result from a record in such matters that the WSJ would consider poor.

In reality, the WSJ has fumbled the ball badly in defending business from the federal government’s increasing criminalization of corporate agency costs in the post-Enron era. A few editorials sniping at isolated issues relating to that criminalization is not going to change the WSJ’s abject failure in that regard.

Nice gig if you can get it

Downsizing the federal government.jpgCato Institute tax director Chris Edwards — author of Downsizing the Federal Government (Cato 2005) — addresses in this Washington Post article the myth that a job in the federal government involves much of a sacrifice of what the “servant” could earn in the private sector:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data this month showing that the average compensation for the 1.8 million federal civilian workers in 2005 was $106,579 — exactly twice the average compensation paid in the U.S. private sector: $53,289. If you consider wages without benefits, the average federal civilian worker earned $71,114, [which is] 62 percent more than the average private-sector worker, who made $43,917.
The high level of federal pay is problematic in and of itself, but so is its rapid growth. Since 1990 average compensation for federal workers has increased by 129 percent, the BEA data show, compared with 74 percent for private-sector workers.
Why is federal compensation growing so quickly? For one thing, federal pay schedules increase every year regardless of how well the economy is doing. Thus in recession years, private pay stagnates while government pay continues to rise. Another factor is the steadily increasing “locality” payments given to federal workers in higher-cost cities.
Rapid growth in federal pay also results from regular promotions that move workers into higher salary brackets regardless of performance and from redefining jobs upward into higher pay ranges. [. . .]
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the rate of layoffs and firings in the federal workforce is just one-quarter the rate in the private sector. [. . .]
One sign that federal workers have a sweeter deal than they acknowledge is the rate of voluntary resignation from government positions: just one-quarter the rate in the private sector, the BLS data show. Long job tenure has its pros and cons, but the fact that many federal workers burrow in and never leave suggests that they are doing pretty well for themselves.

And that’s not even considering the enormous cost to businesses and lives resulting from the misguided work of some of those well-paid federal employees.

So, what’s the problem again?

oil trading.jpgThis Norm Alstar/NY Sunday Times article notes a recent analyst report suggesting that a stampede of institutional investors, mainly pension funds, into the commodities futures markets is actually the chief cause of the rise in oil prices, which the report characterizes as ìa bubble.î Maybe so, but as James Hamilton noted in regard to the contango situation in such markets awhile back, this is a good thing and not an ominous one as the Times article suggests.
If the speculators turn out to be right that prices will be higher in the future, then they will earn a profit and provide a benefit for consumers. By bidding up the price of oil today, oil inventories rise as owners save for the higher future price and consumers conserve so that more oil is available in case there is a shortfall in the future.
However, if the speculators bet wrong, then they will have bought high and sold low. That results in consumers paying more now for oil products than would be necessary if the future price of oil could be predicted with certainty. But consumers’ increased payments for oil products will pale in comparison to the money that the speculators will lose on their bets of higher prices in the future. Consequently, the only reason to be worried about all this is if you are concerned about the speculators losing huge amounts of money when the bubble bursts.
In short, as former Exxon CEO Lee Raymond reminds us about oil prices when he was asked recently whether he thinks that they will continue to go up:

“Maybe. But I’ll bet they’ll be lower at some point.”

Missing the point on Preston Wilson

Preston Wilson.jpgThe Stros mercifully waived Preston Wilson over the weekend, who has been one of the worst-producing regularly-playing outfielders in the National League this season (Wilson’s .714 OPS was 79th in the National League among regular players). The news would not normally justify even a blog post, except for the fact that Wilson’s exit exposed the vacuous nature of the analysis that the Houston Chronicle serves its readers on almost a daily basis from two of its sportswriters, columnist Richard Justice and Stros beat writer Jose de Jesus Ortiz.
As regular readers of this blog know, I sized up the Stros decision to acquire Wilson accurately when the club picked him up as a free agent in January and questioned de Jesus Ortiz’s fawning praise of the acquisition at the time. Not that such a prediction was particularly difficult. If one took the time to analyze Wilson’s career statistics objectively, then it was easy to conclude that he wasn’t a very good player and was a longshot to help the Stros much. Neither de Jesus Ortiz nor Justice bothered to undertake such an analysis of Wilson.

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Be careful replacing that divot

divot.gifLarry Dierker thinks that some of baseball’s rules are absurd, but even the most arcane of baseball’s rules don’t hold a candle to several of golf’s rules. This James Achenbach/Golf Week column describes the byzantine manner in which U.S. Golf Association officials penalized 17-year old Esther Choe of the Scottsdale, Arizona in her recent third-round match during the U.S. Women’s Amateur over — you guessed it — a divot:

After winning her first two matches over the Witch Hollow course at Pumpkin Ridge, Choe was bidding for a third-round victory and a spot in the quarterfinal round. Suddenly and decisively, she was derailed by a divot.

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The political implications of the NatWest Three case

Natwest three20.jpgThis earlier post focused on the political controversy that arose in the UK over the case of the NatWest Three, the three former London-based National Westminster Bank PLC bankers who are charged in Houston with bilking their former employer of $7.3 million in one of the schemes allegedly engineered by former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow and his right hand man, Michael Kopper. After the intervention of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the British Parliament declined to block the extradition of the three former bankers, who are now living in Houston while awaiting trial on the charges.
However, one question that arose immediately after the NatWest Three arrived in Houston was why the three former bankers were not required like other defendants in Enron-related criminal cases to undergo a “perp walk” — i.e., the process by which federal authorities parade white-collar criminal defendants in handcuffs and sometimes leg chains in front of the media as they enter the federal courthouse for their initial appearance in court. Well, according to this Telegraph.co.UK article, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales telephoned the US Marshals Service in Houston on the afternoon the three arrived in Houston and instructed the marshals to remove their hand and leg chains. So much for the ruse that Enron-related criminal cases are not subject to political pressure, wouldn’t you say?
Meanwhile, in another interesting development, the entertainment value of the NatWest Three case increased last this week with the news that famed Houston criminal defense attorney Dick DeGuerin — he of Joseph Durst fame — has been hired by Giles Darby, one of the NatWest Three. With colorful Houston-based criminal defense lawyer Dan Cogdell already representing NatWest Three defendant David Bermingham, the defendants are preparing a formidable legal team and signaling an aggressive defense of the Enron Task Force’s charges.

More Chronicle Cheerleading for the Texans

Kris Brown2.jpgAfter Richard Justice’s fawning column yesterday on new Texans’ receiver Eric Moulds, Chronicle columnist John McClain gets into the cheerleading act today as he states the following regarding Texans placekicker Kris Brown in his daily report on the Texans’ practice:

Despite the uncertainties in the return game, Marciano has no concern about three members of his special teams ó kicker Kris Brown, punter Chad Stanley and long snapper Bryan Pittman. All are solid veterans whose consistency helps a coach sleep better.
“I don’t know what I’d do without those guys,” Marciano said.

McClain might have a point about Stanley and Pittman, but it’s ludicrous to characterize Brown as a consistently good kicker. Last season, Brown blew at least a couple of games by missing quite makeable field goals and only two kickers in the entire NFL (Ryan Longwell and Paul Edinger) made a lower percentage of field goal attempts between 30 – 39 yards than Brown. And just to show that last season was not an aberration, Brown has been in the lower third of NFL kickers in overall accuracy for the past five consecutive seasons.
Thus, rather than “a solid veteran whose consistency helps a coach sleep better” and who draws $1.2 million in base salary, Brown actually ought to be fighting for his job during training camp. But the Chronicle never has let objective criteria get in the way of cheerleading for the Texans in the optimistic glow of the pre-season.