Aaron Schatz is the lead author of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 (prior post here), which is an innovative effort to develop the same type of objective statistical framework for evaluating professional football players that Bill James and other sabermetricians have made standard in evaluating Major League Baseball players. I have read much of the first two Football Prospectus editions that have been published, and I recommend that you pick up this season’s edition if you are interested in the NFL and the evaluation of football players.
In this interesting NY Times article, Schatz takes on an issue in regard to NFL games that the NFL hierarchy does not enjoy talking about — that is, the wide discrepancy in the number of penalties called in NFL games between the various referee crews that call such games.
As Schatz notes, one of the Super Bowl participants could well have been determined by that factor last season as the Seattle Seahawks barely survived their November game against the New York Giants even though the officiating crew called an astounding 19 penalties against the Giants (the average NFL team was penalized 8.5 times a game last year). Not surprisingly, the crew that officiated that game called more penalties than any other NFL referee crew last season. Schatz goes on to observe that certain crews tend to call substantially more of certain types of penalties — such as false starts and pass interference — than other crews.
The NFL promotes the image that its games are decided on the field by the players and their coaches. But Schatz’s research is indicating that who referees a particular game may be as big a factor as the participants.
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Interesting.
Jim Tom Finch (Dan Jenkins’ protagonist sports writer [and likely alter ego] in his book, “You Gotta Play Hurt”) was interviewing a professional gambler, who said that he never bet pro football until the playoffs, because you never knew who was “throwing off” that week in the regular season. But, he added, he would bet a zebra or two if he got the chance. He said that if he could confirm that a certain officiating crew was calling a specific game, he would load up on the “unders”, as that crew was famous for calling offensive holding.
I readily admit that this is a fictional novel, but this most recent article suggests that there may be some truth in it.
I find it interesting that while the NFL requires all teams to post all player injuries before the weekend games, the league will not publish which officiating crew it has assigned to call the game.
And, on a similar note, what’s up with the NFL zebras deciding they need a change in the style of their uniforms? That’s the most stupid thing that I have seen in a while…..
jrb
Since America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys, were not in the playoffs, the playoffs did not count. If they had counted, I would say that the giants were beaten by the Panthers, while Seattle breezed thru the Washingtons (I refuse to use their nickname) and the Panthers. And although the Seahawks were hosed by the refs in the alleged “Super” Bowl, the refs didn’t make them drop 5 passes or botch their clock management at the end of both halves.
Kenneth, thanks for the catch. Correction noted. Schatz was referring to the Seahawks-Giants regular season game in November.