“Slugger”?

PWilson.jpgAs the Stros continue to troll the used car lot of free agent hitters during this off-season, Chronicle Stros beat writer Jose de Jesus Ortiz reminds us that he relies on Stros press releases rather than objective research in this article entitled “Astros near deal for slugger”:

Astros general manager Tim Purpura’s hopes for landing a run-producing outfielder may come to fruition today. And if those plans work out, it’s most likely free agent center fielder Preston Wilson will land with the National League champions.
Wilson, 31, hit .260 with 25 home runs, 90 RBIs and 148 strikeouts for the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals in 2005. All-Star third baseman Morgan Ensberg, who had 36 homers and 101 RBIs, was the only Astro with more RBIs last year than Wilson.
Wilson, who earned $12.5 million in 2005, would likely get a contract worth less per year than the one-year, $6 million offer Nomar Garciaparra spurned from the Astros.

So, Wilson is a “run-producing outfielder” and about as good a slugger as Morgan Ensberg? H’mm, let’s look at the facts.
Wilson is a 31 year-old outfielder who has played eight seasons with the Marlins, Rockies and the Nationals. In those eight seasons, he has had a barely above-average runs created against average (RCAA, explained here) in four seasons and below-average in the other four. Wilson has a career -17 RCAA, which means that he has created 17 fewer runs for his teams over his eight seasons than an average National League hitter would have generated over the same period. In contrast, Ensberg has created 43 more runs than an average National League hitter would have during his five seasons with the Stros. Wilson’s career stat line is .333 OBA/.478 SLG/.811 OPS, which means he is below-average for getting on base and slightly above-average in terms of slugging. Lance Berkman — who is a real slugger — has a career stat line in one less season than Wilson of 289 RCAA/.416 OBA/.557 SLG/.973 OPS.
In short, Wilson is a slightly below-average outfielder whose main attribute is that he would probably be less bad than Willy Taveras at making outs and in not creating runs. But he is not a “slugger” and most likely never will be. A more appropriate analysis would question why the Stros management is even considering throwing a substantially above-average National League salary at such a player.
01/04/05 Update: The Stros signed Wilson to a $4.5 million one year deal with an option to retain him for three years for another $24 million. Absent Wilson turning into a far more productive player in 2006 than he has been in his previous eight MLB seasons, I cannot imagine the Stros picking up that option.

WSJ goes blawging

WSJ online.gifThe Wall Street Journal ($) begins the new year by rolling out a new blawg called — somewhat unimaginatively — “Law Blog,” focusing “on law and business, and the business of law.” Former Forbes Magazine reporter Peter Lattman — who is an attorney — is the lead writer for the WSJ Law Blog, which will include contributions from reporters and editors at The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. Law Blog is a part of the WSJ’s rollout of this flashy new Law news page, which the Journal says will focus on “news, trends and buzz for lawyers at firms and in-house law departments, as well as the business people who work with them.” Check the new blawg and page out.

While UAL lurches to chapter 11 exit, Independence Air tanks

UAL-logo10.gifOverall, the U.S. airline industry improved a bit last week as United Airlines parent UAL Corp. announced that it received creditor approval of its chapter 11 plan to emerge from bankruptcy next month as low-cost airline Independence Air announced its plan to liquidate rather than to attempt to emerge from its recently-filed reorganization case. Here are the earlier posts on the UAL financial problems and the Independence Air bankruptcy.
As noted earlier here, UAL has arranged a $3 billion all-debt exit financing package to emerge from chapter 11 funded by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. About half of that credit facility is dedicated to repay the $1.3 billion debtor-in-possession loan that has kept United operating through its over-three year adventure in Chapter 11.
United’s plan reminds the market of the risks involved in investing in or extending trade credit to a highly-leveraged legacy airline these days. Although the plan proposes to pay secured, priority tax, and administrative claims in full, UAL’s $20 billion in unsecured claims will receive a dividend of between 4% to 8% of such claims in the reorganized UAL common stock while existing common and preferred equity receive nada. UAL’s restructuring advisers have estimated that the reorganized UAL will have an equity value of about $1.9 billion upon emergence from bankruptcy, but the market is already somewhat bullish on the reorganized United (do people ever learn?) — UAL bonds are currently trading at much stronger prices than the four to eight cents on the dollar that UAL unsecured claims will receive under the plan.

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