The always insightful Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution is already thinking about how to improve Houston’s evacuation plan:

“Pay people who stay behind. By the day, of course. And only if they own cars.”

Tyler’s plan makes a lot of sense, particularly for folks who live in sturdy structures in non-flood prone areas. The evacuation of Houston ended up being arduous because an unanticipated large number of people evacuated who did not live in the mandatory evacuation areas. Most of those folks would have been better off battening down the hatches and staying put, but it’s hard to criticize folks — particularly those who do not have a safe haven to ride out such a storm or who are worried about infants — for wanting to get the hell out. The number of non-mandatory evacuees clearly surprised governmental officials and that resulted in a the delay in getting all main freeway lanes going in the same direction to accomodate the evacuees.

As predicted during the morning yesterday, the Houston metropolitan area was spared a direct hit from Hurricane Rita, which came onshore at about 2:30 a.m. this morning at Sabine Pass near the Texas-Louisiana border.
In The Woodlands, which is on the north side of the Houston metro area (pdf region map), the strongest winds — which were probably 40 – 50 mph steadily with gusts of 75 mph — occurred between 3:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m., and have decreased steadily since then. Rain has not been particularly heavy, and my home has had power throughout the storm, although there are wide areas of Houston and the north end that have lost power. Interstate 45 to the east of The Woodlands appears to be a rough demarcation line on the north end where the wind and rain have been worse on the east side of that line. The area between Huntsville and Livingston to the north has been getting hammered hard over the past couple of hours, and the East Texas area around Jasper (just north of Beaumont) is really bearing the brunt of the storm at this point.
Conditions will gradually improve over the next several hours and, by noon or so, we will be able to venture out safely and assess the damage. My sense is that the primary damage in this area will be relatively light wind damage caused by fallen tree limbs, roof damage, broken windows and the like. Frankly, I’m looking forward to venturing out into the weather today because one of the few fringe benefits of these storms is that they cool down the atmosphere greatly, which is much appreciated in these parts because we have been experiencing an excrutiatingly hot late summer — the high temperature was 95 degrees yesterday.
Finally, I want to pass along my heartfelt thanks for the dozens of phone calls, emails, blog comments, blog posts and the like over the past several days expressing concern and conveying goodwill and prayers for my family and me. The outpouring of concern has been greatly appreciated by my family and me, and we are humbled by the gracious expressions of support. Thank you all very, very much.

Three emergency shelters have been established in The Woodlands to care for evacuees who got caught up in the bottleneck on I-45 leading out of Houston. The shelters are at The Woodlands High School at 6101 Research Forest Drive in The Woodlands 77381-4902, The Woodlands College Park High School at 3701 College Park Dr. in The Woodlands 77384, and The Woodlands McCullough Junior High School at 3800 South Panther Creek in The Woodlands 77381-2799. The Reverend Howard Huhn, the Minister of Outreach at The Woodlands United Methodist Church has sent out this email requesting the following:

Dear Friends,
Because of the traffic associated with Hurricane Rita, our local high schools (McCullough, TWHS, College Park) have opened as shelters. They are in need of bedding. If you have bedding available, please drop it off directly at the schools.
Thank you for being Christ to others.
Howard Huhn
Minister of Outreach
The Woodlands United Methodist Church

Jeff Master’s latest update of just a few minutes ago indicates that experts are increasingly forming a consensus that Houston and Galveston will avoid a direct hit from Hurricane Rita:

The latest computer models are tightly clustered around a landfall point just west of the Texas/Louisiana border. Confidence is high in this forecast. Houston and Galveston should escape major wind and storm surge damage, and only experience maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts to 85 mph. It is still too early to tell what will happen after landfall, as the models all take Rita different ways. A major rainwater flooding problem will ensue after Rita’s landfall, with 10 – 30 inches of rain falling over a large area of Texas and Louisiana.

For the first time since Hurricane Rita entered the Gulf earlier in the week, the cone of uncertainty that shows the range where the hurricane force winds will hit does not include a substantial portion of the Houston area, essentially that part west of I-45.

Houston awakens this morning to the news that the two most likely locations for landfall are Port Arthur and Galveston. The cone of uncertainty extends from southwestern Louisiana on the east to the entire Houston metro area on the west. The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting landfall to occur in Jefferson County near Port Arthur, while local experts are predicting landfall slightly west in Chambers County nearer Galveston Bay (county map here). As Rita continues to move slowly with its eye about 260 miles southeast of Galveston, a consensus has developed that the storm will move into northeast Texas after landfall and then stall on Sunday and Monday, potentially causing huge amounts of rainfall of the type that flooded the Houston area during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Landfall is expected at this point sometime in the early morning hours of Saturday, probably between 5 a.m. to 8 a.m., although heavy rainfall and strong winds throughout the Houston area will be experienced well before then.
Houston, get ready to rumble.