The Nigerian Barge market loss hearing

After convicting four former Merrill Lynch executives and a former Enron executive of wire fraud and conspiracy charges yesterday, the jurors in the Enron-related trial known as the Nigerian Barge case heard from opposing expert witnesses today regarding the market effect that the Nigerian Barge transaction had on Enron.

Today’s hearing was held to allow the jury to consider the evidence of market loss that is used in determining sentences under the federal sentencing guidelines. As noted earlier in these posts, the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision in Blakely v. Washington has called the Constitutionality of the federal sentencing guidelines into question, particularly if the jury is not allowed to consider the issue of market loss.

Anthony Saunders, chairman of the finance department at New York University testified on behalf of the prosecution and estimated — with a straight face — that Enron’s sham sale of three power-generating barges to Merrill Lynch led to damages suffered by Enron shareholders of about $43.8 million.

Professor Saunders came up with this damage assessment despite the fact that Merrill Lynch booked only a $12 million profit on the deal, Enron lost no money on the transaction, and the alleged sham nature of the transaction was not even discovered until a year and a half after Enron’s equity value had become worthless upon the company filing bankruptcy.

At any rate, Professor Saunders speculated that the 1 cent per share that the barge deal contributed to Enron’s 1999 earnings translated to about 47 cents per share of the company’s stock price of $53.50 at the time the company’s financial result were announced in January 2000. Take that 47 cent figure times the number of outstanding Enron shares at the time and wallah — you get a $43.8 million figure.

Of course, whether that number bears any reasonable resemblance to the value that the barge deal contributed to Enron’s stock price is another issue entirely.

The prosecution’s market effect reasoning here is so flawed that it borders on the preposterous. In reality, the fact that Enron did not account for the Nigerian Barge transaction properly made Enron’s earnings look better than they really were. Thus, that accounting increased Enron’s share value for the benefit of investors who were buying and selling the stock.

Moreover, the prosecution has presented no evidence — because there is none — that he decline in Enron’s share value during its demise into bankruptcy in 2001 had anything to do with revelations regarding the accounting on the barge transaction. This is because the alleged improper accounting for the barge deal was not even discovered until well over a year after Enron went into bankruptcy and its equity value had become essentially worthless.

At any rate, Dan Fischel, a law professor at the University of Chicago who testified for the defense, countered with a more realistic market loss evaluation and concluded that the loss was closer to $120,000. He also noted that Professor Saunders’ methods were “inconsistent with the real world,” and that Professor Saunders’ methodology relied too heavily on academic models that are not generally used in evaluating a company’s value in the business community. That is a charitable understatement, to say the least.

The market loss hearing will conclude on Friday, and the jury is expected to present its findings to U.S. District Judge Ewing Werlein shortly thereafter. If the jury buys Professor Saunders’ absurd market loss calculation, the defendants could be facing the equivalent of life sentences under the applicable federal sentencing guidelines.

If that occurs, then this prosecution will officially cross the line from being a “mere” injustice to becoming a modern day witch hunt.

Scandal in the House of Representatives

This Washington Post editorial examines the scandal that is the self-perpetuating nature of the House of Representatives:

Out of 435 House races, incumbents lost only seven — an even more impressive survival rate than that of two years ago, when eight incumbents were defeated. In nearly all House races, moreover, there was no serious doubt about the outcome: 95 percent of races were decided by a margin of more than 10 percent, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy, and an astonishing 83 percent were decided in 20-point-plus landslides.

How has this happened? Just take a look at the way in which we allow our Congressional districts to be established:

The main cause of the incumbents’ success is the country’s scandalous system for designing voter districts. Instead of entrusting the design to nonpartisan technocrats, the U.S. system entrusts it to state legislatures, allowing the majority party to promote partisan ends. The partisans feed demographic and polling data into their computers and come up with district boundaries that give their sides as many safe seats as possible. Because this process involves crowding opposition voters into a handful of opposition districts, it creates safe seats for both parties and an incentive for incumbents on both sides not to rock the boat.

And who has been at the forefront of this wrangling of Congressional districts? Of course, Tom DeLay and his friends:

The darkest wizardry occurred in Texas. There, the state Republican Party redrew the districts of five white Democrats, hoping to unseat all of them so that the Democrats would become identified as the party of minorities. The plan succeeded in four cases (outside Texas, a grand total of three incumbents were defeated anywhere). Rep. Charles W. Stenholm, a long-serving conservative Democrat who had been forced to run in a Republican-leaning district against a Republican incumbent, went down in defeat, as did three others who had pulled the Democratic caucus toward the center.
The Texas redistricting faces a court challenge. But whatever the legal outcome, it’s clear that these schemes are an inversion of democracy: Politicians get to choose their voters, rather than the other way around. Incumbent members of Congress face little threat of being unseated and so have little reason to be responsive to voters; their chief vulnerability lies in the threat of a primary, which encourages them to play to party activists.

The upshot of all of this is increased polarization in the political process:

[I]ndependent moderates are a shrinking force in the House of Representatives. In the 1970s, on the partisan roll calls, the average member backed the party position 65 percent of the time. In the 1980s, the average degree of partisan loyalty rose to 73 percent; in the 1990s, 81 percent; and in 2001-02 the partisanship index hit a remarkable 87 percent.

Quare: Is it time for judicial intervention over the legislative gerrymandering of Congressional districts?

Calvin Murphy goes to trial

Former Houston Rockets star and Basketball Hall of Famer Calvin Murphy trial on sexual assault charges stemming from claims he molested five of his daughters when they were children cranks up today in Judge Mike McSpadden‘s criminal state district court in Houston. Here are the earlier posts on the case.
The trial is expected to last about two weeks. Murphy, 55, is charged with three counts of indecency with a child and three counts of aggravated sexual assault. Each charge is punishable by up to life in prison, so Murphy’s freedom for the remainder of his life is literally at stake.
This trial is going to be ugly and very sad.

Nigerian Barge Jury Convicts Five Out of Six Defendants

The federal jury in the Enron-related criminal case known as the Nigerian Barge case acquitted a former Enron accountant today and found her five co-defendants guilty of wire fraud and conspiracy charges.

The jury cleared former Enron accountant Sheila Kahanek of all charges, but returned guilty verdicts on all charges against former Enron Vice President Dan Boyle and four former Merrill Lynch bankers, William Fuhs, Robert Furst, James A. Brown and Daniel Bayly. Messrs. Brown and Boyle were also convicted of lying to investigators.

Ms. Kahanek’s acquittal is not surprising. The prosecution’s case against her was extremely weak and relied almost entirely on testimony regarding an alleged argument that Ms. Kahanek had with another Enron employee regarding the Nigerian Barge transaction.

Moreover, Ms. Kahanek testified during the trial, something that three of her co-defendants chose not to do.

Finally, Ms. Kahanek’s attorney — Houston-based criminal defense lawyer Dan Cogdell — performed brilliantly during the trial and clearly connected with the jury better than any other criminal defense attorney involved in the trial.

The conviction of Mr. Fuhs is somewhat surprising. By all accounts, he did a good job of testifying during the trial and the prosecution’s case against him was not much stronger than its case against Ms. Kahanek.

However, Mr. Fuhs was undoubtedly prejudiced by the failure of the three higher-ranking Merrill executives — Messrs. Bayly, Furst, and Brown — to testify during the trial.

The bottom line is that juries in white collar criminal cases generally expect to hear what defendants have to say and the failure to address that jury desire is a huge risk.

Finally, the conviction of Mr. Boyle was not particularly surprising. His defense was a curious mix of appealing for jury sympathy (a questionable tactic given the public animus toward Enron) and relying on his seemingly poorly-prepared testimony during the trial.

At one point during his testimony, Boyle said he knew the deal was wrong even as he continued working on it. If a white collar criminal defendant is going to testify during trial, then it helps to do so effectively. Mr. Boyle did not.

Now, the trial moves on to its second phase, in which the government will attempt to prove the effect on the market of the fraudulent transaction in which the defendants participated. Included in the indictment against the Nigerian Barge defendants is an allegation that the transaction caused the loss of more than $80 million, which is an allegation that can add years to a sentence under existing federal guidelines.

This allegation was recently included in a superseding indictment of the Nigerian Barge defendants as a result of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Blakely decision, which held that the state of Washington’s sentencing laws were unconstitutional because they allowed only judges (and not juries) to consider factors that increased sentences. Some legal experts have speculated that the decision calls the Constitutionality of federal sentencing guidelines into question for the same reason.

The Enron Task Force has not yet explained how the Nigerian Barge deal — which was a relatively small transaction involving about $12 million in allegedly illegal profit for Merrill Lynch — could have possibly caused $80 million in market loss to investors in Enron.

In fact, neither Enron nor Merrill Lynch lost a dime on the transaction, and the allegedly questionable accounting on the deal was not even discovered until well after Enron had filed bankruptcy and its equity value had already become worthless.

Where does the prosecution come up with $80 million in market effect from that?

During his distinguished legal career as a defense attorney before becoming a federal judge, Nigerian Barge Judge Ewing Werlein often defended corporate clients against dubious damage claims in civil cases. It will be interesting to watch how he deals with the government’s equally questionable market loss allegations in this trial.

Stay tuned.

Houston’s Great Wall of China

Gordon Marino, a philosophy professor at St. Olaf College, writes this Opinion Journal article on the Houston Rockets’ center Yao Ming. It’s an interesting look at Yao, in which Mr. Marino observes:

I asked Yao to compare his life in China with the one he leads in the U.S. He observed: “In China everything was taken care of for me, and every day was planned out. Here I am more on my own.” Though he does not warm to the task of talking about his inner life, Yao acknowledges that his two years in the NBA “have made me more open about my emotions both on and off of the court.” The language difficulties notwithstanding, Yao has gelled well with his American teammates; nevertheless, the basketball version of the Great Wall of China has a shy streak that cannot make it easy for him to be one of the most famous people on the planet. According to his revealing memoir, Yao has often found succor in the invisible world of cyberspace. And true to his book’s word, Yao ended our conversation with a polite handshake and a fast break for the computer.

Under extraordinary pressures ever since he arrived in Houston to begin his NBA career, Yao has acted in an exemplary and classy manner. His parents have done a wonderful job in raising him and should be extremely proud of the way in which Yao has handled the adjustment to the American and NBA lifestyle.

Pokes get municipal funding approved for new stadium

The Dallas Cowboys won easily their biggest victory of the season Tuesday as Arlington voters approved a $325 million proposition to help build the team a new stadium.
The proposition authorizes tax increases to pay for half of a $650 million stadium for the Cowboys. The proposition will raise the city sales tax by a half-cent, its hotel occupancy tax by 2 percentage points and its car rental tax by 5 percentage points. A tax of up to 10 percent on tickets and up to $3 on stadium parking will also likely be levied, but proceeds from those taxes are earmarked for retiring a portion of the Cowboys’ debt on the project.
Opponents of municipal funding for the stadium kept the race reasonably close despite being widely outspent by stadium proponents. The Cowboys funded a political action committee funded that spent $4.6 million on the campaign through the end of October. Opponents raised only about $120,000.
The site of the stadium, which is scheduled to open in 2009, will be in the area adjacent to the Six Flags of Texas Amusement Park and Texas Rangers’ Ameriquest Field. A couple of weeks ago, the Cowboys and the Rangers announced that they were working on a joint master planned development, similar to Southlake Town Square, for the area near the football and baseball stadiums.
Stadium supporters estimated that the 75,000-seat retractable-roof stadium would provide the city an additional $5 million in rent and sales tax revenue from spending at the facility, plus other economic activity throughout the city. Stadium backers pointed to a city-commissioned study by Economics Research Associates projecting that the venue would pump $238 million into Arlington’s economy each year.
Opponents of the stadium contend that the project would cost far more than it injects into city coffers and would hamstring efforts to attract other businesses. They also said that other economists have criticized the city-commissioned report for being unreasonably optimistic. Virtually all academic research — summarized nicely by Craig Depken here — has concluded that major sports facilities typically do little to boost local economies.
One of the civic motivations for the stadium project is Dallas’ desire to attract a future Super Bowl game, which was not possible so long as Dallas area relied on Texas Stadium as its professional football venue. Although Dallas stadium and convention facilities are not as well coordinated as Houston’s, the new stadium will undoubtedly attract a Super Bowl for Dallas, probably between 2010-12.

Dynegy agrees to buy energy plants

Houston-based Dynegy Inc. has entered into an agreement to purchase from Exelon Corp. all of the outstanding shares of ExRes SHC Inc. Through the acquisition, Dynegy will acquire a 1,042-megawatt, 7,211-Btu heat rate, combined-cycle independence power generation facility near Scriba, N.Y., four natural gas-fired merchant facilities in New York, and four hydroelectric generation facilities in Pennsylvania.
As a part of the deal, Dynegy will also acquire controlling interest in a 750-megawatt firm capacity sales agreement with Con Edison, a subsidiary of Consolidated Edison Inc. The sales agreement, which runs through 2014, provides annual cash receipts to Dynegy of about $100 million. The financial terms of the agreement include the payment by Dynegy of $135 million and the consolidation of $919 million in project debt, and Dynegy projects that the principal and interest payments related to the consolidated debt will be substantially funded through 2014 by the proceeds from the long-term capacity sales contract with Con Edison.
The deal is the first major purchase that Dynegy has made since it underwent a massive restructuring in 2002. That restructuring was prompted by the crisis in the energy trading industry that followed industry leader Enron‘s spiral into bankruptcy in late 2001.

Gerry Hunsicker resigns as the Stros’ GM

Gerry Hunsicker — the most successful general manager in the history of the Houston Astros — resigned Monday after nine years as the club’s general manager.
Hunsicker’s tenure as Stros GM coincided with the most successful decade in Stros’ history. During the past nine years, the Stros won four National League Central titles and finished second three times, including this past season in which the Stros won their first post-season playoff series in club history. Over that span, the Stros had a won/loss record of 701-595 for a sixth-best winning percentage of .541 in Major League Baseball. Only three MLB GMs have served in their current job for more seasons than Hunsicker.
Hunsicker will be replaced by his long-time assistant, Tim Purpura.
The Stros hired Hunsicker as GM in 1995 from the New York Mets organization, where he worked for seven seasons, first as director of minor-league operations and then as assistant GM. Hunsicker and Purpura are credited in baseball circles with revamping the Stros’ farm system over the past decade to produce such star players as Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Abreu, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, and Wade Miller. In addition to building the Stros’ farm system, Hunsicker also traded for or signed such talents as Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Octavio Dotel, Moises Alou, Carl Everett, Jose Lima, Carlos Beltran and Roger Clemens.
Consequently, by any reasonable measure, Hunsicker’s tenure with the Stros has been a successful one. However, the margin for error is razor thin with a mid-market club such as the Stros, and Hunsicker’s two major failures contributed to the Stros’ inability to break into the elite level of MLB clubs.
Hunsicker’s first mistake was the decision to sign Jeff Bagwell and Hidalgo to high dollar, long-term contracts after the 2000 season. That error in judgment reverberates through the Stros organization to this day. Although those signings were popular from a public relations standpoint, Bagwell had already begun his decline in production and Hidalgo had shown only streaks of high production at the time of those contracts.
Now, almost five years later, the Stros are obligated to pay Bags a total of $39 million over the next three seasons, which is about $25 million greater than his market value. Similarly, the club remains responsible for a multi-million portion of Hidalgo’s contract, all at a time when the Stros are trying to sign free agents Beltran and Clemens, and arbitration eligible stars Berkman and Oswalt. Moreover, because the overpaid Bags remains tethered to first base, the Stros have been unable to move the more productive Berkman to his natural position of first base and open up an outfield spot for MLB-ready Jason Lane. It was Hunsicker’s job to forsee the problems that the Bags and Hidalgo contracts would have on the Stros and point owner Drayton McLane in another direction. He did not and that failure has — and will continue for the next several years — to affect the Stros negatively.
Hunsicker’s other big mistake was in failing to secure a quality catcher for the club. Actually, the Stros had developed a potential star catcher in their minor league system — Mitch Melusky — but a combination of emotional and physical problems undermined his Major League career after only one promising season. When Melusky flamed out, Hunsicker seemed to give up on the position as he overpaid the consistently unproductive Brad Ausmus to an absurdly overmarket contract in 2001 while waiting for the farm system to produce another MLB-quality catcher. Alas, the system did not produce such a player, leaving the Stros with Ausmus and Raul Chavez as their catchers this season. That duo was the weakest catching unit of any team in Major League Baseball this past season.
Despite these failures, Hunsicker has been unquestionably the most successful GM in the 43 year history of the Stros franchise. Which begs the question: Why did he decide to quit?
Based completely on speculation, I think the reason is that McLane is quietly trying to sell the club. As a result, McLane does not want to be forced to eat a large portion of an extended Hunsicker contract if he finds a someone in the next year or two who is willing to buy the club, but who is not interested in retaining Hunsicker as GM. With McLane unwilling to provide him with long term security, Hunsicker elected to take a year off, review his alternatives, and then, on the first day after the remaining year on his Stros contract expires, accept the best GM job available at that time.
One thing is for sure — Hunsicker will not remain unemployed very long after the remaining year on his Stros contract expires. He was a big part of a very good past decade for the Houston Astros, and this talented man will land on his feet in another GM position in Major League Baseball.
Best of luck, Gerry Hunsicker.

The future of American health care finance

This NY Sunday Times article profiles Kaiser Permanente, the huge health maintenance organization. The article suggests that those who are reviewing ways to revamp the American health care finance system should follow Kaiser’s lead in attempting to increase the quality of care and to spend health dollars more wisely by using technology and incentives tailored to those goals. The entire article is well worth reading, but I was particularly drawn to the following summary of the American system of health care finance, which is spot on:

Health care systems in most industrialized countries are in crises of one form or another. But the American system is characterized by both feast and famine: it leads the world in delivering high-tech medical miracles but leaves 45 million people uninsured. The United States spends more on health care than any other country – $6,167 a person a year – yet it is a laggard among wealthy nations under basic health measures like life expectancy. In a nutshell, America’s health care system, according to many experts, is a nonsystem. “It’s like the worst market system you could devise, just a mess,” said Neelam Sekhri, a health policy specialist at the World Health Organization in Geneva.

Read the entire article.

Ray Fair’s updated prediction on the Presidential race

This earlier post from several months ago passed along an article about Yale Economics Professor Ray Fair‘s interesting model for predicting the results of Presidential elections. Here is Professor Fair’s updated prediction, which forecasts President Bush winning 57.50% of the two-party vote.
On the other hand, Professor Bainbridge points out a less complicated indicator that favors Senator Kerry.