Kerry’s management style

My sense is that the upcoming Presidential election is going to be a much closer race than many Bush Administration supporters currently think, so this NY Sunday Times article on John Kerry’s management style is timely in that it provides some insight into how a President Kerry would go about making decisions.
Mr. Kerry, who is a former prosecutor, is a four term senator without any meaningful management experience in terms of running a business, so his management style is primarily reflected on how he runs his campaign:

Mr. Kerry is a meticulous, deliberative decision maker, always demanding more information, calling around for advice, reading another document ? acting, in short, as if he were still the Massachusetts prosecutor boning up for a case.
He stayed up late last Sunday night with aides at his home in Beacon Hill, rewriting ? and rearguing ? major passages of his latest Iraq speech, a ritual that aides say occurs even with routine remarks.
In interviews, associates repeatedly described Mr. Kerry as uncommonly bright, informed and curious.

But Mr. Kerry’s curiousity brings with it an indecisiveness borne of a tendency to become deluged in what I refer to as “data dumps:”

But the downside to his deliberative executive style, they said, is a campaign that has often moved slowly against a swift opponent, and a candidate who has struggled to synthesize the information he sweeps up into a clear, concise case against Mr. Bush.
Even his aides concede that Mr. Kerry can be slow in taking action, bogged down in the very details he is so intent on collecting, as suggested by the fact that he never even used the Medicare information he sent his staff chasing.
His attention to detail can serve him well on big projects, as it did when he sent aides scurrying across the country to find long-lost fellow Vietnam veterans who could vouch for his war record. But sometimes, his aides say, it is a distraction, as it was in early 2003, when they say he spent four weeks mulling the design of his campaign logo, consulting associates about what font it should use and whether it should include an American flag. (It does.)
His habit of soliciting one more point of view prompted one close adviser to say he had learned to wait until the last minute before weighing in: Mr. Kerry, he said, is apt to be most influenced by the last person who has his ear.

And whereas President Bush rarely makes management changes in his top circle of advisors, Kerry often does:

Mr. Kerry has also, in this campaign and earlier ones, repeatedly upended his staff, edging longtime advisers aside or dismissing aides outright when things threatened to run off the tracks. As a result, while some stalwarts from Mr. Kerry’s first campaign have stuck with him since 1972, the senior staff of his campaign includes few people who call themselves his friends or are personally loyal to him.

And there is a hint of the Jimmy Carter micromanager management style in Kerry’s approach:

Mr. Kerry’s circle is as wide and changing as Mr. Bush’s is constricted and consistent. He is always calling one more friend, and the campaign lineup has shifted so often that rumors of staff changes have become part of the daily gallows humor at Kerry headquarters on McPherson Square in downtown Washington.
Instead of delegating authority to a single adviser, Mr. Kerry relies on different people for different advice. And, he made a point of saying in the interview, none of them have too much authority. “I am always in charge,” he said.

And though he is constantly seeking out advice, Kerry does not always follow it:
For all his eagerness to seek advice, Mr. Kerry does not always take it.

After he delivered a 35-minute speech at the University of Pittsburgh last spring, Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania gently tried to reinforce a message Mr. Kerry’s aides had been struggling to impart.
“I said I thought it was a little long for an outdoor speech,” Mr. Rendell recalled. “My rule of thumb for an outdoor speech is 15 to 20 minutes.”
That night at the Philadelphia Convention Center, Mr. Rendell prepped Mr. Kerry by saying the crowd was full of party veterans and urging him to keep his speech short. He talked for 32 minutes.
When Mr. Kerry arrived in Allentown early this month for a rally at the fairgrounds, Mr. Rendell did not even mention his 20-minute outdoor rule. “I’ve given up,” Mr. Rendell said. “He listens sometimes, and he doesn’t listen sometimes.”
Mr. Kerry spoke for 38 minutes.

2004 Weekly local football review

Texans 24 Chiefs 21. In the biggest upset of the young NFL season, the Texans took advantage of a Trent Green blunder that resulted in Marcus Coleman‘s 102 interception return for a touchdown to edge the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Kris Brown’s 49 yard field goal with 2 seconds to play. The Chiefs really should have won this game, as they were about to go up 21-6 when Coleman picked off Green. But David Carr overcame another mediocre performance for three quarters and played well down the stretch along with receivers Johnson, Gaffney, and newcomer Derick Armstrong to pull out in impressive victory. The Texans have the Raiders and Vikings the next two weeks at home, and the Texans have a shot in both games if they can slow the offenses of the opposition as they did in the Chiefs game.
The Cowboys play the Redskins on Monday Night Football this week.
Texas 35 Rice 13. The Horns pounded the gritty Owls in what amounted to a scrimmage as Texas continues to prepare for their October 9th showdown in Dallas with OU. As of now, I don’t think Texas can throw well enough to move the ball consistently on OU and the Horns do not seem strong enough defensively to keep OU’s offense in a low scoring game. But Texas does have serious offensive talent in Young and Benson, so a surprise in Dallas is possible. However, at this point, I just don’t see how the Horns win that game. OU plays their first tough game of the season this coming Saturday against Texas Tech, while the Horns tune up against Baylor. Rice goes to San Jose State this Saturday, which is a very winnable game for the Owls.
Miami 38 Houston 13. THe Coogs improbably made a game of it with the Hurricanes into the third quarter, but the Miami defense ultimately proved too strong for the Coogs to score enough points to really worry the Canes, although the Coogs beat the spread comfortably. As usual, Miami’s defense is big-time good, but the Canes’ offense is not National Championship caliber this season. The Coogs go to Memphis this Saturday, which is definitely no picnic. Expect the Coogs to be 1-4 after this Saturday.
The Texas Aggies were idle as they prepare for their Big 12 opener against Kansas State in College Station next Saturday.

Stros continue to tease

Raul Chavez improbably drove in a career-high five runs, Jason Lane went 3-for-4 with and scored twice, and Morgan Ensberg went 4-for-5 with two runs scored as the Stros hung on to their slim playoff hopes with an 11-7 win over the Brewers on Sunday afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. I also think that the fact that my nephew Richard — a huge Stros fan — attended the game gave the Stros some good karma that contributed to the victory.
Jeff Kent and Lance Berkman also homered for the Stros to keep the heat on the Cubs and the Giants, who both lost on Sunday. The Stros are 1 1/2 games behind the Cubs and one game behind the Giants with six games to go at the Juice Box against the Cards and the Rockies this week.
Tim Redding (5-7), the third of eight Stros pitchers, was credited with the win after throwing a scoreless fourth inning in relief of Carlos Hernandez, who lasted only 2 1/3rd innings and appears to be fading as the season closes. Brad Lidge once again slammed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth to secure the win.
It’s been three weeks since my last periodic review of the Stros hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA”) and the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA explained here), and the updated statistics reflect why the Stros have not been able to overtake the Cubs and the Giants in the NL Wild Card playoff race. Here were the Stros hitters’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, through Saturday, September 25:
Lance Berkman 65
Carlos Beltran 26
Jeff Bagwell 13
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 4
Jeff Kent 1
Eric Bruntlett 0
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Jason Lane -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -12
Morgan Ensberg -13
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
Berkman and Beltran continue to be among the league leaders (Beltran’s RCAA would be 41 if his Royals number is included), and Lamb has really had a remarkable season overall, but the rest of the Stros hitters are now lagging. After a brief surge that pumped his RCAA to 16 at one one point, Bags has cooled off to a 13, ensuring that this will be his sixth straight season of declining production and that he will officially become the most overpaid player in terms of current production in the National League.
Similarly, after being the club’s third best hitter for much of the season, Bidg has faded badly down the stretch (he is in the midst of an 0-22 trough) as his RCAA has declined to 4. None of the other Stros regular hitters are even average National League hitters, and Ensberg, Viz, Chavez and Ausmus are among the worst hitters among regular National League hitters. The lack of run production during the just concluded road trip reflects this lack of punch in the Stros lineup.
After topping out at 6th during their late August-early September surge, the Stros have fallen back to 9th in RCAA among the 16 National League teams. The Stros (17) are comparable to the Cubs (18) in RCAA, but are way behind the Giants (85), who are riding the crest of another incredible season by Bonds (a remarkable 152 RCAA!).
However, the Stros fading hitting has been picked up by the Stros’ pitching staff, which has improved its RSAA signficantly over the past three weeks. The following are the pitchers individual RSAA:
Roger Clemens 35
Brad Lidge 23
Roy Oswalt 20
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 5
Dan Wheeler 4
Chad Qualls 2
Darren Oliver 1
Russ Springer 1
Brandon Backe -1
David Weathers -1
Mike Gallo -3
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Chad Harville -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Carlos Hernandez -7
Pete Munro -9
Brandon Duckworth -10
Tim Redding -15
Clemens, Lidge and Oswalt all continue to be among the top pitchers in the National League, and Miceli has had a nice bump up since returning from the his bout with pink eye. Wheeler and Qualls have been unexpectedly solid contributors, and even Backe‘s -1 is remarkable given that he had never started a MLB game until a few weeks ago. Hernandez and Munro have faded, but that’s to be expected of two pitchers that the Stros were really not counting on this season.
The Stros (45) remain in fourth among the 16 National League teams in RSAA,
but the Cubs (117) remain far ahead of the Stros in runs saved against average. Given the difference between the Stros and the Giants in RCAA, and between the Stros and the Cubs in RSAA, it really is remarkable and a testament to the Stros’ resilience that they have remained in the Wild Card race all the way to the final week of the season. Based on the numbers, both the Cubs and the Giants should be well ahead of the Stros in the race.
Oh, and by the way, before you think about criticizing Gerry Hunsicker or Drayton McLane for the trades of Hidalgo and Dotel earlier this season. Please note that Hidalgo is currently sporting a negative 20 RCAA. That’s worse than Chavez for goodness sakes and puts him among the ten worst hitters among regular players in the National League. I liked Hidalgo as much as the next fellow, but he’s on the brink of playing himself out the league at this level of production.
And Dotel? His RSAA for the season is 7, which is about as good as Miceli, nowhere near Lidge’s RSAA, and a significant drop in Dotel’s production from the past three seasons. Inasmuch as it is always better to trade a pitcher before they bottom out so that you can get some real value for him (in this case, Beltran), Hunsicker and Drayton should be applauded for this move, too.
Roy O opens the Cardinal series on Monday night and Brandon Backe is scheduled to pitch the Tuesday game before the Rocket steps up on Wednesday. If the Stros can win the first two against the Cards, then this week could get interesting.

Playing both sides against the middle

This Washington Post story reports on Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public relations consultant Michael Scanlon‘s efforts in 2002 working with conservative religious activist Ralph Reed to help the state of Texas shut down an Indian tribe’s El Paso casino, and then Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon’s incredible activities in persuading the tribe to pay $4.2 million to try to get Congress to reopen it once it had been closed. In the end, Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon failed to get the casino reopened. Here is an earlier post from Charles Kuffner on the early stages of the investigation into the matter.
H’mm, let’s see now. Work the political process to get a casino closed so that you can then work the political process to get the casino reopened. Not bad work if you can get it.

Going, going, gone!

The Brewers’ Wes Obermueller pitched a six-hitter for his first career shutout and the Brewers for all practical purposes finished the Stros’ fragile playoff chances with an 8-0 victory over the Stros on Saturday at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The Stros are now 2.5 games behind the Cubs and 1.5 games behind the Giants in the Wild Card playoff race with seven games to go. Folks, it’s over.
It is fitting that this type of game was the one that sealed the Stros’ fate. Except for the first month of the season and then the late August-mid September streak that got the Stros back in the playoff race, the Stros — with the exception of Berkman and Beltran — have struggled hitting generally and with power in particular. Five singles and a double off of Wes Obermueller is simply not going to win many games during a race for a playoff spot.
Pete Munro (4-7) gave up three runs — two earned — and five hits in four innings, and then Tim Redding came in and showed why he was demoted to AAA ball for much of this season.
Carlos Hernandez gets the start in the Stros’ last road game of the season on Sunday afternoon against the Brewers. Then the Stros return to the Juice Box for three games series against the Cards and then the Rockies to finish the season that could have been.

Perots hand reins of Perot Systems to next generation of management

In a surprise move, Plano, Texas-based Perot Systems Corp. announced Friday that Ross Perot Jr. had dropped CEO from his title at the Plano, Texas computer services firm and given up the founding family’s operational control of the company.
Peter Altabef, 45, the company’s general counsel, succeeds Mr. Perot as president and chief executive. Mr. Altabef has been a Perot Systems executive for 11 years, since joining the company from the Dallas office of law firm Hughes & Luce LLP, which has long been the Perot family’s law firm. Del Williams, a longtime Perot family friend, succeeds Mr. Altabef as general counsel.
Mr. Perot, 45, will become chairman of the company, succeeding his father, Ross Perot, Sr., 74, who becomes chairman emeritus. The changes in top management allow the Perots to maintain input into the strategic direction of the company while leaving day-to-day management decisions to others.
Mr. Perot Sr. founded Perot Systems in 1988 after leaving his first company, Plano-based Electronic Data Systems Corp, which he sold to General Motors in 1984 in a $2.5 billion deal. Mr. Perot is generally credited with inventing the computer services industry.
Mr. Perot, Jr. is also chairman of the real estate investment company he founded, Hillwood Development Corp. He took the Perot Systems reins from his father in 2000 and earned generally positive performance reviews from on Wall Street.

Stros keep scratching

Roger Clemens pitched 7 plus innings of five hit, shutout ball and the Stros finally scratched out a run in the top of the 10th to beat the Brew Crew 1-0 on Friday night at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
The win allowed the Stros to keep pace with the Wild Card playoff race leading Cubs, who beat the Mets. Things are looking increasingly bleak for the Stros as they remain 2 1/2 games behind the Cubs with 8 games to go. The Stros would have to win at least 7 of those final 8 games to win a playoff berth if either the Giants or the Cubs just split their final 8 games. Although the Stros have won 7 of their last 10 games, the 8-2 Cubs have gained ground on them and the 7-3 Giants have also kept pace with them.
Nevertheless, Clemens was magnificent again as he dominated the Brewers for the second time in a week. The Rocket struck out 12 while walking three before giving way to Lidge and Miceli, who closed the game without giving up a hit. The Stros finally broke through with the winning run in the 10th as pinch-runner Willie Taveras went from first to third on Carlos Beltran‘s bloop single and then scored on Bidg‘s sac fly.
After a lull of over a week now, the Stros need to start hitting the ball and scoring runs quickly as Pete Munro takes the mound in the Saturday afternoon game against the Brewers’ Wes Obermueller(5-8/6.35). The Stros have penciled in Carlos Hernandez to start the Sunday afternoon game.

Decisions during the fog of war

Max Boot is a Senior Fellow of National Security Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations, and an award-winning author and former editorial features editor of The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Boot is an expert on national security policy and U.S. military history and technology.
In this LA Times op-ed, Mr. Boot gives an interesting historical perspective to the criticism levied against the Bush Administration recently for its tactical decisions in the war against the Islamic fascists:

Reading the depressing headlines, one is tempted to ask: Has any president in U.S. history ever botched a war or its aftermath so badly?
Actually, yes. Most wartime presidents have made catastrophic blunders, from James Madison losing his capital to the British in 1814 to Harry Truman getting embroiled with China in 1950. Errors tend to shrink in retrospect if committed in a winning cause (Korea); they get magnified in a losing one (Vietnam).

Despite all that’s gone wrong so far, Iraq could still go either way. (In one recent poll, 51% of Iraqis said their country was headed in “the right direction”; only 31% felt it was going the wrong way.)

Mr. Boot then reviews the blunders that two of our most revered Presidents — Lincoln and FDR — made in connection with their wars:

Lincoln is remembered, of course, for winning the Civil War and freeing the slaves. We tend to forget that along the way he lost more battles than any other president: First and Second Bull Run, Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville, Chickamauga?. The list of federal defeats was long and dispiriting. So was the list of federal victories (e.g., Antietam, Gettysburg) that could have been exploited to shorten the conflict, but weren’t.
As the Union’s fortunes fell, opponents tarred Lincoln with invective that might make even Michael Moore blush. Harper’s magazine called him a “despot, liar, thief, braggart, buffoon, usurper, monster, ignoramus.” As late as the summer of 1864, Lincoln appeared likely to lose his bid for reelection. Only the fall of Atlanta on Sept. 2 saved his presidency.
Most of the Union’s failures were because of inept generalship, but it was Lincoln who chose the generals, including many political appointees with scant military experience. He ultimately won the war only by backing Ulysses Grant’s brutal attritional tactics that have often been criticized as sheer butchery.

FDR had some doozies, too:

Roosevelt had more than his share of mistakes too, the most notorious being his failure to prevent the attack on Pearl Harbor, even though U.S. code breakers had given him better intelligence than Bush had before Sept. 11. FDR also did not do enough to prepare the armed forces for war, and then pushed them into early offensives at Guadalcanal and North Africa that took a heavy toll on inexperienced troops. At Kasserine Pass, Tunisia, in 1943, the U.S. Army was mauled by veteran German units, losing more than 6,000 soldiers.
The Allies went on to win the war but still suffered many snafus, such as Operation Market Garden, a failed airborne assault on Holland in September 1944, and the Battle of the Bulge three months later, when a massive German onslaught in the Ardennes caught U.S. troops napping.
Though FDR bore only indirect responsibility for most of these screw-ups, he was more directly culpable for other bad calls, such as the decision to detain 120,000 Japanese Americans without any proof of their disloyalty. Like Lincoln, who jailed suspected Southern sympathizers without trial, Roosevelt was guilty of civil liberties restrictions that were light-years beyond the Patriot Act. And, like Bush, Roosevelt didn’t do enough to prepare for the postwar period. His failure to occupy more of Eastern Europe before the Red Army arrived consigned millions to tyranny; his failure to plan for the future of Korea and Vietnam after the Japanese left helped lead to two wars that killed 100,000 Americans.

Mr. Boot closes by placing the current criticism of the Bush Administation’s tactical decisions in Iraq into historical perspective:

None of this is meant in any way to denigrate the inspired leadership of two great presidents. Both Lincoln and Roosevelt were brilliant wartime leaders precisely because they were able to overcome adversity and inspire the country toward ultimate victory with their unflagging will to win. That’s what Bush is trying to do today.
And, no, I’m not suggesting Bush is another Lincoln or Roosevelt. But even if Bush hasn’t reached their lofty heights, neither has he experienced their depths of despair. We are losing one or two soldiers a day in Iraq. Lincoln lost an average of 250 daily for four years, Roosevelt 300 daily for more than 3 1/2 years. If they could overcome such numbing losses to prevail against far more formidable foes than we face now, it’s ludicrous to give in to today’s fashionable funk.
“Colossal failures of judgment” are to be expected in wartime; I daresay even John Kerry (whose judgment on Iraq changes every 30 minutes) might commit a few. They do not have to spell defeat now any more than they did in 1865 or 1945.

Read the entire piece.

Stros hang by a thread

After scoring five runs in the first 26 innings of their key series with the Giants, the Stros imporbably rallied for five runs in the ninth around Lance Berkman‘s three run yak to pull out a dramatic 7-3 win over the Giants in a wild one on Thursday night in San Francisco.
With the win, the Stros are 2Ω games behind the Cubs, who took a half-game lead over the Giants in the National League Wild Card race by winning on Thursday. The Giants also dropped 1Ω games behind Dodgers in the National League West Division race, which is about to get very interesting as the Giants play the Dodgers in six of their final nine games.
The home run was sweet for Berkman, who had several adventures while pursuing balls hit by Barry Bonds during the game. He badly misplayed Bonds’ triple to right in the fifth and then fell on his backside while catching Bonds’ drive in the seventh. Although Berkman’s natural position is first base, he actually is an above-average outfielder. But man, he sure does look funny sometimes going after balls in the outfield.
Even Berkman’s tater was unusual, as he lifted it high in the air and it barely reached the first row of seats in the elevated arcade on the right-field wall. Jason Lane then followed with an RBI pinch hit single and Raul Chavez‘s sacrifice bunt also plated a run. Carlos Beltran also busted out of a mini-slump with three hits for the Stros, who ended up with 10 hits despite only having five through eight innings against Giants starter Jason Schmidt.
The game got a bit chippy after Berkman’s yak in the ninth when Giants reliever Dustin Hermanson and manager Felipe Alou were ejected after Hermanson hit Jeff Kent with the first pitch after Berkman’s tater. Both clubs had been warned after a bench-clearing incident in the third, when Stros’ starter Brandon Backe dusted off Bonds with a low pitch. Though there were no punches or ejections in that incident, Bonds went nuclear over the low throw, gesturing and yelling at Backe and nearly sticking his fingers in the mask of the home plate umpire.
Dan Miceli got the win by getting one out in the eighth, and Brad Lidge secured the win by striking out three in the ninth as a parade of six Stros relievers bailed starter Backe out after he could last just 2 1/3rd innings.
The Stros now go to Milwaukee for a weekender with the Brew Crew as the Rocket opens the series in going for this 19th victory. Pete Munro and then “who knows” follow in the next two games of the Brewers series before the Stros return to the Juice Box to close out the season with six games against the Cards and the Rockies.

Best of Houston: Best Blog

The Houston Press names Charles Kuffner’s Off the Kuff as Houston’s best blog in its annual Best of Houston series. A worthy selection. Congratulations, Charles!