Daily Archives: June 13, 2004

You just never know

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In their most improbable win of the season, the Stros scored a run in five different innings to beat the Brew Crew in the final game of the Stros marathon two week, 12 game road trip, 5-4.
Playing without Lance Berkman (at his grandfather’s funeral) and Richard Hidalgo (stiff neck) and facing traditional Astro-killer Ben Sheets, the Stros used solo yaks from JK and Viz and clutch pitching performances from Pete Munro, Miceli, Lidge, and Dotel to secure the win. To make things particularly interesting, Lidge and Dotel each loaded the bases in the seventh and eighth before retiring the side in each inning (Lidge struck out four in the seventh!).
The weekly analysis of the Stros’ hitting and pitching performance reflects that the Stros’ hitting has gone south — the Stros fell from first to fourth in National League RCAA (runs created against average,explained here) during this past week — while the pitching has actually improve considerably — the Stros went from ninth to a tie for fourth in National League RSAA (runs saved against average, explained here).
Here are the Stros’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 39
Jeff Bagwell 10
Craig Biggio 7
Jeff Kent 7
Mike Lamb 7
Eric Bruntlett 1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -2
Raul Chavez -4
Morgan Ensberg -4
Adam Everett -6
Richard Hidalgo -6
Jose Vizcaino -7
Brad Ausmus -10
Even though he cooled off over the past week, Berkman still remains the second best hitter in the National League behind Bonds. After that, the Stros hitters are continuing to struggle, as Bags is trending downward (his RCAA is about ninth among NL first basemen) and Kent is cooling off, too. Of the remaining players, Lane is showing signs of being a productive hitter (he had two more doubles today that are not included in these stats), but Ensberg and Hidalgo are still probably going to have to heat up if the Stros are going to have a chance for the post-season. Note that Everett has regressed to a negative 6 RCAA reflecting that he has no business batting second in the batting order, despite Jimy Williams‘ absurd compulsion with having Everett sacrifice at every opportunity.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching appears to be coming around despite the first two games of the just concluded Milwaukee series. Here are the Stros’ RSAA numbers:
Roger Clemens 19
Brad Lidge 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Roy Oswalt 4
Andy Pettitte 4
Mike Gallo 3
Dan Miceli 3
Wade Miller 2
Pete Munro 1
Kirk Bullinger 0
Chad Harville -1
Brandon Backe -3
Ricky Stone -3
Jared Fernandez -6
Tim Redding -7
Brandon Duckworth -9
With Miller‘s strong performance in Seattle, all of the Stros’ starters are now above-average RSAA except for Redding, who is increasingly looking hopeless in terms of achieving any degree of reasonable consistency this season. The Stros smartly exiled Duckworth to New Orleans and added Bullinger, who at least might be worthwhile for an inning or two once in awhile. Other than Gallo (who appears to be coming back to earth) Redding, and Clemens (how could he improve?), all of the Stros pitchers appear to be reasonable prospects for improving their RSAA over the remainder of the season.
In looking at the NL Central, the statistics continue to indicate that the Reds‘ slide of the past week will continue because of their lack of pitching. The Cubs are currently the best balanced team, with the Stros and the Cards trailing in that order. All three of those teams are reasonably well-balanced on an aggregate basis.
The Stros finished the road trip with a decent 6-6 slate and return home with a 33-28 record, good for third in the NL Central behind the Cards and Reds.The Stros open up an 11 game homestand in the Juice Box on Monday night as the Rocket takes on the Cubs’ Mark Prior in what should be a classic pitching duel. The Cubs are followed into the Juice Box by the Angels and the Bucs.

Revisiting the Son of Sam

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David Berkowitz is one of the most notorious serial killers in New York City history. The postal clerk terrorized the city for thirteen months in 1976-77 as he stalked young women in lovers’ lanes with a .44-caliber handgun and mocked the police probe in notes sent to then-Daily News columnist Jimmy Breslin. Berkowitz’s rampage ultimately became the subject of a popular Spike Lee movie.
After his arrest and trial in 1977, Berkowitz was sentenced to serve 25 years to life in prison for the ambush killings of six people. In connection with the trial, Berkowitz exhibited many symptoms of paranoid schizophrenia, including his statements that he was acting on orders of a dog owned by a neighbor named Sam.
Last week, Berkowitz was rejected for parole. Under New York law, it is mandatory that Berkowitz be considered for parole again in 2006.
Interestingly, Berkowitz has been a model prisoner and became a born-again Christian in 1987. He maintains a website that has some blog characteristics (a daily journal). He accepts full responsibility for his actions, makes no excuses, and appears to have true remorse for the surviving victims and survivors of the victims of his crimes.
Regardless of (or perhaps because of) the depravity of his crimes, Berkowitz’s case raises fascinating criminal justice, medical, and societal questions. Hat tip to Charles Kuffner over at Off the Kuff for the link to the Berkowitz story.

Bush Administration’s record on cutting the bureaucracy

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Tyler Cowen posts this analysis over at Marginal Revolutions reflecting that the Bush Administration compares poorly with other administrations of the past 40 years in terms of reducing the amount of major governmental agency or department budgets. As Mr. Cowen notes:

George W. comes in tied for last with Clinton II. This is a highly imperfect proxy, but when you are 0 for 15 it is hard to blame measurement error alone.

As noted in here just the other day in regard to the issue of tax simplification, the Bush Administration’s inaction on these types of issues is, in my view, more likely to cause a loss in the upcoming election than anything that is likely to occur in the Middle East.

United Airlines – should the federal government save it?

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This NY Times article gives a good overview on the state of United Airlines, which continue to flounder in a chapter 11 case filed in December 2002. As the story relates, United’s emergence from chapter 11 is based upon the Air Transportation Stabilization Board‘s expected approval of United’s application for $1.6 billion in federal loan guarantees that will allow United to raise the capital necessary to fund its reorganization plan and post-bankruptcy operations.
Quare: Why is the federal government in the business of providing credit enhancements for an industry that, as Warren Buffett pointed out several years ago, if one tabulates all of the airline industry’s finances since the day the Wright Brothers in 1903, one would discover that, cumulatively, there has not been a single penny of profit? (Mr. Buffett has also suggested famously that, in hindsight, shooting down the Wright Brothers on that beach would have been a reasonable financial, if not moral, move).
I know what Professor Ribstein‘s answer would be. Update: I was right!

An American business success story

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One of the most interesting CEO’s around these days is Brad Anderson of Best Buy (my teenage sons’ favorite store). In this NY Times article, Mr. Anderson, 55, tells his story of working his way up the ladder as Best Buy grew. It is a quintessentially American business story. The entire piece is well worth reading, and here are a few tidbits to give you a flavor for Mr. Anderson’s story:

I was a C-plus student in high school. My guidance counselor told me, “Some of us, son, are just not meant for college.”

I became a clerk in a stereo store called Sound of Music, a forerunner of Best Buy, in West St. Paul, where I bought my stereo in college. I loved music and was looking for a job where I could listen to music and get paid at the same time.
I didn’t know how to sell anything. You were paid on commission and I made $69 for two weeks’ worth of work. I wanted to quit, but then I figured out how to do it: do anything for the customer. The first stereo I ever sold I delivered personally, 70 miles away, and installed it myself. Then I actually started being good as a salesman, and somehow, after 31 years, I managed to work my way up to C.E.O.

We did some things right and a lot wrong. We reduced our operating expenses so Sound of Music could survive. I would literally drive the product to the stores when I went out to do the training.
But we did lots of stupid things, like when we went for a month without advertising. It was a good way to learn how valuable advertising was.

I’ve had a lot of mentors, especially my father, Marbury Anderson, and the founder of the company, Dick Schultz. I remember spending time with Dick when I was just starting out, and he was talking about the $50 million company he was building. By the time we built the $50 million company, he was on to building the $500 million company. That inspiration was so essential.

My sons used to have to drag me into Best Buy, but, over time, I have come to appreciate the store. Knowing that Brad Anderson is running Best Buy makes it even easier to enjoy.