First, the Stros blew the suspended game from last night to the Reds in 13 excrutiating innings 3-2, but then they came back to salvage Saturday afternoon’s game, 8-0.
The completion of the suspended game was pure agony. 13 innings, four hits, only one extra base hit (a double) against the worst pitching staff in the National League. Watching bowling or billiards would have been much more exciting than enduring that travesty.
And despite Darren Oliver‘s five inning, one hit, no walks, 6 K performance in replacing injured Andy Pettitte in Saturday’s regular game, the Stros had scored only 2 runs through eight innings in that affair. There is no better indictment of the Stros’ main problem this season — hitting generally and hitting with power particularly — than scoring just 4 runs in 21 innings against this Reds pitching staff. The last time I looked, the Reds’ staff had a negative 63 RSAA, which means that they have given up 63 more runs this season than an average National League pitching staff has allowed.
Beltran cranked a three run yak and Lamb followed with a two run toaster to run the score up in the ninth inning of the Saturday afternoon game. But make no mistake about it: If the Stros cannot score more than 4 runs in 21 innings against this Reds pitching staff, then the wildcard playoff spot will likely be out of reach for the Stros in about another week.
Roy O goes against Cincy’s most reliable starter this season — Paul Wilson — in Sunday’s rubber game. The way the Stros are struggling at the plate, I recommend highly that you keep the clicker close so that you can check out the golf tournament at frequent intervals.
Monthly Archives: July 2004
John Edwards’ vision through the prism of John O’Quinn
In this American Spectator piece, New York Sun columnist William Tucker relates to his past interview with famed Houston plaintiffs’ attorney John O’Quinn in interpreting fellow trial lawyer and Democratic Party vice-presidential candidate John Edwards‘ world view:
When it came to defining his core vision, here’s what Edwards said:
“Tonight, as we celebrate in this hall, somewhere in America, a mother sits at the kitchen table. She can’t sleep because she’s worried she can’t pay her bills. She’s working hard trying to pay her rent, trying to feed her kids, but she just can’t catch up.
It didn’t use to be that way in her house. Her husband was called up in the Guard. Now he’s been in Iraq for over a year. They thought he was going to come home last month, but now he’s got to stay longer.
She thinks she’s alone. But tonight in this hall and in your homes, you know what? She’s got a lot of friends.
We want her to know that we hear her…
So, when you return home some night, you might pass a mother on her way to work the late shift, you tell her: Hope is on the way.”Let’s look at what’s going on here. First and foremost, we’ve got a lonely woman. There’s a passing reference to Iraq and her husband, but that’s basically to get him out of the house and out of the picture. (Remember, these are the same people who brought you the welfare system, also designed to get men out of the house and out of the picture.)
She has no friends, no relatives, no religion, no community, nothing to rely on. Her husband? Well, he doesn’t even seem to write anymore. And so she sits by herself at the kitchen table, waiting for someone to come along.
What a beautiful vision of America — a nation of lonely, isolated women, in dire need of help, abandoned by everyone, waiting for some handsome trial lawyer to come knocking on their door.
Hope is on the way.
Read the entire piece. Hat tip to Michael over at Southern Appeal for the link.
Stros-Reds’ game suspended
Bags singled home the tying run during a deluge in the top of the sixth inning and a third rain delay forced the umpires finally to make dinner reservations and call a suspended game between the Stros and Reds on Friday night in Cincy.
The game will resume Saturday at 11:30 a.m. with the score tied at 2 and two Astros on base in the top of the sixth. The regularly scheduled game for Saturday will follow, with Andy Pettitte seeing how many pitches he can throw in that one. The bullpen better be ready today.
Sex, Love and Voting
Ray C. Fair is a professor of economics at Yale University. In this Wall Street Journal ($) article, , Professor Fair’s new book — Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things — is reviewed and it sounds like a winner:
How can you guess who might be having an extramarital affair? This is an important question, and it deserves to be treated with scientific rigor.
Start with a theory. As a first approximation, it seems reasonable to suppose that the likelihood of having an affair depends on income, age, number of years married, marital satisfaction and religiousness. Next, find some data — say, a sex survey published in a magazine like Psychology Today or Redbook. Now fit the data to the theory (which means having your computer run a line through a cloud of points — a technique called linear regression) and do a statistical test to see whether the theory is any good. And what do you know? It is!
Now comes the fun part: prediction. Using the results, you can guess which of your friends and neighbors might be straying from the matrimonial paddock. Likely candidates for an affair are those who (1) have a high wage rate, (2) have been married a long time, (3) are relatively young given the length of their marriage, (4) aren’t very happily married and (5) aren’t particularly religious. Want something more quantitative? Well, all else being equal, an extra 10 years of marriage increases the predicted number of adulterous encounters per year by about six. (Warning: Blackmail based on these findings is strongly discouraged.)
Predicting adultery is only one of the interesting subjects that Professor Fair addressed. However, during this political season, the most interesting subject is his model for predicting Presidential elections:
By trial and error, Mr. Fair comes up with a list of eight: the growth rate of the economy, inflation, the number of economic “good news” quarters leading up to the election, whether an incumbent is running, how long the incumbent party has held the White House, whether there is a war on and, finally, a “party variable” in case the electorate has an innate preference for one party over the other. As data, he uses election results from 1996 (when President Clinton beat Bob Dole) back to 1916 (when President Wilson beat Charles Hughes).
After fitting the data to the theory, Mr. Fair finds that all eight variables affect voting at greater than chance levels.
And applying Professor Fair’s model to the Presidential elections from 1916 through 1996 reflects that it is pretty darn accurate:
From 1916 to 1996, Mr. Fair’s theory only calls two elections incorrectly. In 1960 Nixon received 49.9% of the vote, but according to the theory he should have received a 51.1% — a relatively small discrepancy. More embarrassing to the author’s analysis is the 1992 election, in which President Bush’s predicted share of the major-party vote was a winning 50.9%, whereas his actual share was 46.5% — a whopping 4.4 percentage-point error.
Moving to the 2000 election, which lies outside the data set used to construct the theory and is therefore a good test of its validity, Al Gore should have received (a losing) 49% share of the vote that went to the two major parties, but he actually got (a losing) 50.3% share. Not bad.
So, how does the Professor size up the 2004 election?:
Mr. Fair’s analysis will be cheering to President Bush, who, as a Republican president running for re-election when the Republicans have been in power only one term, enjoys the best possible incumbency situation. The only way he can lose, the theory suggests, is if the economy suddenly tanks.
Looks like another book to add to my reading stack.
Enron Broadband defendant pleads guilty
Ken Rice, the former head of Enron?s broadband Internet business, became the 11th person to plead guilty to an Enron-related crime when he admitted to a single count of securities fraud this morning before U.S. District Judge Vanessa Gilmore in Houston.
The plea agreement requires Mr. Rice, who is 45, to cooperate with the government in ongoing investigations and trials and forfeit $13.7 million in cash and property. Mr. Rice faces a maximum 10 years in prison and a $1 million fine.
Mr. Rice faced charges of conspiracy, securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering and insider trading in this multi-count indictment. Attorneys close to the case have been expecting Mr. Rice to reach a deal with prosecutors for several weeks. As a division head, Mr. Rice reported directly to former Enron CEO and COO Jeffrey Skilling, and may have had regular contact with former Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay as well. Both Messrs. Skilling and Lay have pled not guilty to a variety of Enron-related charges in another pending criminal case.
Mr. Rice’s plea deal centers on a Jan. 20, 2000 meeting with analysts where Rice and others at the company touted the current and future abilities of Enron?s broadband network. That same meeting was mentioned in the indictment against Mr. Skilling, which claims he made similarly false claims about the abilities of the network and the potential of the business. It?s certainly possible that Enron Task Force prosecutors will Rice as a witness in an attempt to corroborate the charges against Mr. Skilling.
According to the Enron Task Force, Mr. Rice sold 1.2 million shares of Enron stock for more than $76 million while he knew Enron Broadband Services was failing. The unit never generated a profit and was abandoned shortly after Enron’s bankruptcy filing in early December 2001. Mr. Rice quit the company in 2001 after his stock sale and several months before Enron went bankrupt. He had served as CEO of Enron’s trading unit — Enron Capital and Trade — from 1996 to 1999 before taking over the high profile broadband unit that Enron claimed was responsible for millions in profits. Enron’s share price spiked to $90 in August 2000 as Enron promoted the venture, among other ventures. Mr. Rice was indicted on April 29, 2003 — along with seven other former broadband employees — in a 218-count indictment that claimed the men lied about the value and capabilities of Enron?s internet business.
The remaining defendants in the Enron broadband case are Joe Hirko, another former broadband CEO; Kevin Hannon, former chief operating officer; Scott Yeager and Rex Shelby, former senior vice presidents; and Kevin Howard and Michael Krautz, former executives. Each one has pled not guilty to all charges. The trial of the case is scheduled to begin to begin Oct. 4. The first criminal trial involving former Enron executives will take place in the “Nigerian Barge case,” which is scheduled for trial beginning on August 16.
Shell reaches settlements on reserve overstatement
Royal Dutch/Shell Group, the world’s third-biggest public oil company, reached preliminary settlements with U.S. and British authorities to pay penalties of about $150 million for overstating its energy reserves. Earlier posts are here about the Shell overstatement controversy.
Shell announced the hefty settlements after months of negotiations with regulators. Shell ousted top executives, turned over millions of pages of documents and shared with the regulators the findings of an internal Shell investigation of the company’s overstatements of oil and natural-gas reserves. Shell essentially bet that cooperating with regulators would shorten the regulatory investigations and soften the blow from U.S. authorities, and the bet played out well.
Shell has agreed to pay a $120 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is one of the biggest penalties levied by the SEC on a foreign company in recent years. The agreement settles SEC findings that Shell violated the antifraud, reporting, record-keeping and internal-control procedures of U.S. securities laws and related SEC rules. Shell also said it agreed to pay £17 million ($30.9 million) to Britain’s Financial Services Authority, which had already found that Shell had violated British market-abuse regulations. As is usual in such settlements, Shell did not admit or deny the conclusions.
Although the announcements are clearly progress, Shell is not out of the woods just yet. The SEC must formally approve its settlement, and it can still bring civil charges against individuals involved in the fiasco. Moreover, the U.S. Justice Department is continuing its own investigation into the overstatement of reserves. Finally, Shell and its executives still could face costly civil settlements.
New Houston Bankruptcy Judge appointed
Well-known bankruptcy litigation specialist Jeff Bohm of Austin has been appointed as the new bankruptcy judge for the the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division. Jeff replaces William Greendyke, who resigned effective June 1 to join Houston-based Fulbright & Jaworski.
I have known Jeff for a long time and been involved in several cases with him over the years. He is an outstanding lawyer and will make a fine bankruptcy judge. Although Jeff has been practicing for 20 years and has been a partner at Austin-based McGinniss, Lochridge for 15 years, Jeff’s background is interesting in that he did not go directly to law school after undergraduate school. Rather, he chose to work for several years for a large bank in Houston in a variety of positions. I believe that this background is a part of the reason why Jeff has an unusual depth of perspective regarding financial and insolvency-related disputes, and also why he developed a resolution-oriented style of lawyering in his practice (I have found that lawyers who were formerly clients tend to prefer this style). Although an effective litigator, Jeff has always had a refreshing knack for resolving legal disputes in the most efficient and reasonable manner possible under the circumstances.
Jeff joins what has become a powerhouse group of bankruptcy judges in the Southern District of Texas. As noted earlier here, outstanding Houston bankruptcy lawyer Marvin Isgur joined chief Bankruptcy Judge Karen Brown and Bankruptcy Judges Wesley Steen and Letitia Clark on the Houston bankruptcy bench earlier this year. With the additions of Judges Isgur and Bohm, the Houston bankruptcy judges are one of the strongest groups of bankruptcy judges in any one federal district in the country.
Stros lose to DBacks
The Stros dropped two games at home to the National League’s worst team as the Diamondbacks held on for a 6-4 win on Thursday afternoon at the Juice Box. The Stros go to Cincy 14Ω games behind NL Central-leading Cards and 5Ω games behind the Padres for the NL Wild Card playoff spot.
The crowd of nearly 40,000 booed the Stros lustily throughout the game, particularly starter Tim Redding, who again struggled with his control. Redding gave up six runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings, while walking two, both in the DBacks’ 3 run first inning. After his rough start, Redding recovered to retire 12 of the next 13, but started to unravel in the fifth. After giving up a double, Adam Everett made a key throwing error on an infield hit by Gonzo, and then Hillenbrand followed with a two run dinger. Those three unearned runs pushed the DBacks’ lead to 6-1.
All of that went over about like a turd in the punchbowl with the Juice Box crowd.
The Stros had nine hits — including two doubles and a yak by Bidg — but could never put together the big inning against the DBacks’ rookie starter to pull even. Bidg’s first double was the 544th double of his remarkable career, moving him past Tony Gwynn for 19th all-time in the majors. His double in the fifth allowed Bidg to pass Reggie Jackson for 70th on the career hits list. It was Bidg’s 2,586th.
Pete Munro pitches for the Stros against the Reds in the first game of their weekend series on Friday in Cincy. Although the Reds can flat out bash the ball, their pitching is even worse than the DBacks. So, this series ought to be another good opportunity for the Stros to pad their hitting statistics. That means that they will probably score five runs total in the three games. That’s the kind of season it’s been.
The prison of radical Islam
In this Opinion Journal.com piece, Danielle Crittenden reviews a new book — “Inside the Kingdom” — by Osama Bin Ladin’s former sister-in-law, Carmen bin Ladin.
Inasmuch as women of radical Islamic families risk severe punishment for speaking out, first person accounts of life in this culture are rare. As Ms. Crittendon notes, Ms. Bin Ladin is not a distant relative seeking to cash in on her the Bin Ladin family’s notoriety. Rather, her story is arguably the most vivid account yet to appear in the West of the oppressive lives of Saudi women:
Carmen’s life in Saudi Arabia began when her car pulled up to Yeslam’s mother’s compound outside Jeddah. In the mid-1970s, the town was still not much more than a donkey crossroads in the middle of the desert. If winds weren’t whipping up the sand in blinding funnels, the sun was scorching down with unbearable heat. Shrouded in her unfamiliar and suffocating black robes, Carmen entered what sounds like a luridly decorated marble tomb. From then on, she was no longer free.
Each day, Yeslam vanished to work. Carmen and her young daughter passed the hours in the company of his mother and sister. Rarely could she leave the house–rarely, even, did she see sunlight. Courtyards had to be cleared of male servants before she could poke her head outside; she was not even permitted to cross the street alone to visit a relative. When she did venture out, she had to wear a choking abaya and thick socks to hide her ankles. “It was like carrying a jail on your back,” she writes.
Nor was she much freer inside the house. She could not listen to music, pick up an uncensored book or newspaper, or watch anything on television but a dour man reading the Quran. Nor could she absorb herself in household tasks. These were left to foreign servants, including the care of children.
Carmen was horrified by the effects of this isolation and uselessness. “The Bin Laden women were like pets kept by their husbands;. . . .Occasionally they were patted on the head and given presents; sometimes they were taken out, mostly to each other’s houses;. . . .I never once saw one of my sisters-in-law pick up a book. These women never met with men other than their husbands, and never talked about larger issues even with the men they had married. They had nothing to say.”
Revising “The Deal”
Rich Karlgaard is the publisher of Forbes magazine. In this Wall Street Journal ($) column, Mr. Karlgaard examines what has gone wrong at Microsoft and what Bill Gates is doing to try and fix it:
Today Microsoft is struggling to figure out what attracts and motivates the most talented employees within capitalism’s free-agent system. The company had no such problem figuring that out in the 1980s and ’90s. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer liked to call the old motivational carrot “The Deal.” That arrangement worked like this: Come and work for Microsoft. Make do with a so-so salary but partake lavishly of options. Sure, you might be forced to grind away on 80-hour weeks for six or seven years. But you’ll change the world and get rich — wildly rich.
Microsoft’s stock has been flat since 1999. The Deal is broken. Not only that, but most of today’s change-the-world projects in computing live outside of Microsoft. These include open-source software, search engines, Web services, Flash video, WiFi, iPods, etc. For reasons of pay and excitement, Microsoft is losing its grip on a new generation of IQ.
Then, Mr. Karlgaard notes that the fortunes of companies in the technology world can changes just as fast as the technologies that they sell:
Digital Equipment Corporation reached its peak market value in 1988 but four years later sold to Compaq for a tenth the price. IBM was a titan throughout the 1980s yet nearly went bankrupt in 1992, before Lou Gerstner stepped in. At both IBM and DEC, the stellar 1980s financial results were lagging indicators of future vitality. The leading indicator was the flow of talent. By the late 1980s, even as DEC and IBM were at the peak of their financial powers, they already had lost the war for young IQ. The bright and bold were flocking to the new personal computer industry.
It’s hard to believe, but Microsoft, in 2004, has become a company run by gray hairs. Mr. Gates and Mr. Ballmer will turn 50 in the next 20 months. Older yet, with snowy white hair, is Jim Allchin, who directs the future of the company’s crown jewel, the Windows operating system . . .
In this context, Mr. Karlgaard suggests that the true purpose of Microsoft’s recent stock buyback program and dividend announcement is actually to reinvigorate “the Deal:”
My guess is that outside investors were not Microsoft’s primary audience for last week’s announcement of a one-time $32 billion dividend payment, a $30 billion stock buyback, and a doubling of the annual dividend payment. No, this move was done to rally employee shareholders and future employee shareholders. Microsoft needs a way to attract and keep future Bill Gateses and Steve Ballmers. It needs to revive The Deal.
A year ago, Microsoft announced it had removed the heart of The Deal — stock options — in favor of restricted grants. An army of Microsoftologists parsed the move for deeper meaning. One analysis had it that Microsoft was merely acknowledging what Mr. Gates’s good friend Mr. Buffett had asserted — that the early 2000s would produce lousy returns in the stock market. If that turned out to be true, stock options would only disappoint employees, lead to bad morale at Microsoft and make it harder to recruit.
In retrospect, maybe Microsoft should have been more optimistic about the stock market. It might have joined Intel, Cisco and others in the battle to keep stock options. But Microsoft didn’t do that, and since there are no longer options for employees, only share reward — paying a higher dividend — is available as an incentive for high-IQ employees.
It’s not The Deal, but it’s a start.