Stros 2008 Season Review, Part Five: Season Recap and Report Card

lance berkman2 The Stros 2008 season has been over for over a week now, so it’s time for my final review of the 2008 season (prior 2008 season reviews are here) and my grading of the Stros players for the 2008 seaons (my grading of the Stros from the 2007 season is here and from the 2006 season is here).

Although the Stros (86-75) played surprisingly well over the final 40% of the season (42-24, including a stellar 22-11 mark over the final 20% of the seaons), the club failed to qualify for the playoffs for the third straight season since their only World Series appearance in 2005. However, the Stros did handily beat my pre-season over/under prediction of 75 wins, so there is little question that the club out-performed most expectations for the season.

The Stros started out the final fifth of the season with a 16-3 run that pulled the club to within 2.5 games on September 13th of tying the Brewers for the lead in the National League Wild-Card playoff spot.

However, we in Houston recall all too vividly what happened during the morning of Saturday, September 13th –  Hurricane Ike roared through the Houston metro area, leaving in its wake multi-billions of dollars in damages and millions of people without power.

The Stros were supposed to be playing a series against the Cubs at Minute Maid Park over that weekend, but the games simply were not playable in Houston under the circumstances. Frankly, the entire Cubs series should have been postponed and the Stros should have been told to prepare for their next series starting the following Tuesday against the Marlins in Miami.

However, despite the catastrophic damage to the Houston area from Hurricane Ike, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig insisted that as many of the Stros-Cub games be played as soon as possible.

That was a bad decision, but it was made even worse when Selig inexplicably rejected the use of perfectly acceptable baseball stadiums in close-by Round Rock, Corpus Christi and Arlington to play the games.

To compound that poor judgment, Selig then yanked the Stros players and coaches out of Houston on the afternoon of Sunday, September 14th — at a time when virtually all of their families were adjusting to living without power — to play the first of two of those games in that postponed Cubs series that night in Milwaukee, of all places.

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A day in a life after Ike

the road warrior Just jotting down a few observations throughout the day of living in an area that just experienced a major natural disaster.

FEMA, take note

Although The Woodlands did not suffer as much damage as many other parts of the Houston metropolitan area, it’s interesting in my travels around town over the past several days that I have seen no evidence whatsoever of any federal relief.

For example, it seems to me that there are a couple of basic things that the federal government could do to facilitate recovery efforts. First, move as many portable generators to selected service stations throughout the region so that citizens can become somewhat mobile again. The primary problem at this point is not lack of gasoline. Rather, it’s lack of power to operate the pumps to get the available gas into cars.

Even though large swaths of Houston remain without power, many areas are getting power back by the hour. Folks in areas without power can be much more productive if they can travel to areas that have it and work. Unfortunately, as it stands, there is no gas to get to those areas and then return home.

Another irritation is that no one in an official capacity attempts to do anything to facilitate communications for the citizens directly affected by a natural disaster such as Ike. Ever since the storm, cell phone usage has been spotty in most residential areas, and serviceable in only a few commercial areas. Perhaps damage to the cell network equipment is the cause of the poor service, but I haven’t heard anyone contend that such is the case.

Galveston

Just as the deadly hurricane of 1900 changed the nature of Galveston, my sense is that Hurricane Ike has done the same thing in 2008.

Prior to the 1900 hurricane, Galveston was Texas’ largest city, port and commercial center. The devastation from that storm put into the motion the changes in Texas’ development that resulted in Houston becoming the major port and cities such as Houston and Dallas-Ft. Worth becoming the major commercial centers. As Houston grew into this region’s major center of commerce, Galveston evolved into a tourist center and a weekend beach getaway for folks in Houston.

Despite that tourism development, the City of Galveston has been slowly dying for years. Jobs and commercial activity largely revolve around the tourism industry (even the port is now owned by the Port of Houston Authority). Most young people now move away from the city after high school, so older folks constitute an unusually high percentage of the "town folk."

My sense is that Galveston will come back as a weekender community and a modest tourist vista, but that commerce not related to the tourism industry will continue to decline at an accelerated rate. My sense is that what we might see in 20 years is a community comprised of a few high-rise condos and resorts along the seawall, the ubiquitous weekender homes on the West Beach and not much else.

It will certainly be easier to evacuate such a community.

Radio anchor people

As a general rule, I do not listen to much radio. Maybe an occasional traffic report or Charlie Pallilo’s sports talk show in the rare event that I am driving somewhere during it.

But I’ve been shocked at how bad the radio anchor reporters have been on KTRH, the main station providing disaster information to the public. Although a number of the KTRH field reporters are OK, the anchors often sound as if they are blithering idiots. It seems as if they aren’t asking inane and non-challenging questions to "experts" or public officials, they laughing and making bad jokes at inappropriate times or in regard to serious issues.

Walter Cronkite, where are you when we need you?

Houston sports teams

I noted in this earlier post in the run-up to Hurricane Ike that the high number of variables that become involved in reacting to hurricanes often generates some abysmal decisions in reaction to the storm. That observation was certainly validated by a couple of decisions that were made with regard to Houston sports teams.

From University of Houston Athletic Director Dave Maggard’s absurd decision to have the University’s football team play in Dallas while the storm was still hammering Houston (!) to Major League Commissioner Bud Selig’s equally preposterous decision to haul the Houston Astros players and coaches away from their families (to Milwaukee of all places) the day after a terrible natural disaster left the players and coaches’ families without power in a devastated city, it’s hard to imagine the fractured thought process that went into either of those boneheaded decisions.

Sports competition at the major-college and professional level requires a high level of concentration. Given the circumstances under which these games were played, it is not surprising in the least that the Houston teams lost each one of them. How could the players and coaches be concentrating on a damn game?

It’s only God’s grace to both Maggard and Selig that no family member of either a UH or Stros player or coach was hurt or killed in the aftermath of the storm. Why do either of these fellows still have their respective jobs?

Stros 2008 Season Review, Part Four

Carlos Lee After falling apart during the third fifth of the 2008 season, the Stros (64-64) made an unexpected rebound during the fourth fifth of the season, going 20-13 over that stretch.

Although the Stros’ recent play was more fulfilling to watch than if the club had mailed it for the rest of the season, the risk is that the good result from a small sample size of games deludes Stros management into thinking that the Stros are close to regaining true contender status in the National League. They are not and here’s is a simple reason whey they aren’t.

Despite their relatively good play of late, the Stros remain 14 games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs (77-49) and 9.5 games behind the NL Wildcard-leading Brewers (73-55). Inasmuch as that is even further behind than the Stros stood after their worst stretch of play of the season during the third fifth of the season, the Stros actually lost ground in the race for a playoff spot while playing their best stretch of baseball of the season.

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Checking in on the battle for last place

Carlos Lee 072208 I’m not making this up. During the early stages of the last night’s first game of the series between the Stros (46-53) and the Pirates (45-54) to determine last place in the National League Central, the following advertisement appeared on one of the Minute Maid Park screens:

Mini-Season Ticket Packages Still Available!

Playoff Ticket Option Included!

Uh, I think that playoff ticket option is of dubious value.

As the Pirates were putting up a 7-spot on the Stros in the top of the 9th on their way to a 9-3 win, I noticed something that pretty well sums up the sorry state of the Stros these days. Although they do not have a hitter the caliber of the Stros Lance Berkman (51 RCAA/.438 OBA/.638 SLG/1.075 OPS), the Pirates — who are heading toward their 16th straight losing season — have four hitters who are at least as productive this season as the Stros’ second-best hitter, Carlos Lee (18 RCAA/.353 OBA/.550 SLG/.903 OPS).

The four Pirates are Jason Bay (29 RCAA/.379 OBA/.514 SLG/.893 OPS); Nate McClouth (24 RCAA/.350 OBA/.527 SLG/.878 OPS); Xavier Nady (22 RCAA/.377 OBA/.526 SLG/.903 OPS); and Ryan Doumit (20 RCAA/.380 OBA/.560 SLG/.939 OPS). As a result, the Pirates overall (+38 RCAA) are vastly superior to the Stros (-44 RCAA) in hitting. Only their abysmal pitching (-138 RSAA!) keeps the Pirates in the fight for the cellar with the Stros.

At any rate, guess the total amount the Pirates are paying all four of those hitters?: $10,187,000, or more than $2 million less than the $12.5 million that the Stros are paying this season to Lee alone. And Lee’s salary goes up to $18.5 million for each of the 2009-2012 seasons.

As I suspected when the Stros signed Lee to that contract, that is the kind of contract that can turn a contender into an also-ran very quickly. Unfortunately, the value of the contract relative to Lee’s above-average (but not spectacular) productivity, combined with a no-trade clause, makes it virtually certain that the Stros will not be able to unload it.

By the way, did anyone else notice who has climbed into second place today?

Stros 2008 Season Review, Part Three

Ed Wade Inasmuch as Major League Baseball is taking a break for the All-Star break, I decided to post the third part of five periodic reviews of the Stros’ 2008 season a game or so early (previous parts for the 2008 season are here). Although they were able to keep it together a bit longer than the 2007 club, the 2008 Stros (44-51) fell apart during the third 20% segment of the 2008 season.

The Stros went 12-19 during the third segment and spiced that effort by being trounced 10-0 on this past Friday evening by the team with the worst record in MLB, the Washington Nationals (36-50). That’s a far worse record than the club had during either the first fifth or second fifth of the season, but consistent with my pre-season forecast that this Stros club looked like a 75-win outfit. The Stros are in in last place in the National League Central, 13 games behind the Cubs (57-38) and 8.5 games out of the National League Wildcard Playoff berth. Given that the Cubs net RCAA/RSAA total is 113 (43 RCAA/70 RSAA) and the Stros is -42 (-41 RCAA/-1 RSAA), it’s surprising that the Stros aren’t even further behind.

Nevertheless, the first 60% of the season has been an instructive lesson in how risky it is to make conclusions about baseball based on small sample sizes. The Stros stumbled out of the gate with 12 losses in their first 18 games and looked completely lost. Then, stellar 1B Lance Berkman (52 RCAA/.443 OBA/.653 SLG/ 1.097 OPS) warmed up and the club bounced back with a 23-10 stretch that put them seven games above .500 at 30-23 and just one game behind the Cubs on May 27, prompting the mostly clueless Chronicle sports reporters (Zac Levine excepted) to babble about a possible playoff berth. However, since then, the Stros have lost 29 of 43 games to drop into the NL Central cellar and decisively expunge any theoretical playoff aspirations. The Stros now have to win 31 of their final 67 games just to equal my 75 win pre-season prediction. That is by no means a sure thing.

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The stress of selling snake oil

snakeoil_1 In my annual preview of the Stros’ season, I made the following observation about the then newly-acquired Stros pitcher, Shawn Chacon:

"Chacon was an inconsistent starter for six seasons before washing out with the Yankees and Pirates in 2006 (-24 RSAA — ouch!). He revived his career last season with the Pirates as a setup man, so what do the Stros do? Insert him back into the starting rotation. This is unlikely to turn out well."

You can say that again.

Boys will be boys. Chacon was not a happy camper after being banished fromthe starting rotation to the Stros’ bullpen last week, so his outburst is not all that surprising. It’s not as if Chacon (-3 RSAA; 5.04 ERA) has pitched appreciably worse over the course of the season than Brandon Backe (-1 RSAA/4.82 ERA), who inexplicably enjoys a secure spot in the rotation with nary a hint of a demotion. Indeed, Backe and Chacon’s career numbers are not much different — they are both below National League-average pitchers. Backe has pitched a tad better lately, but beware of small sample sizes. Sure, the Stros demoted Chris Sampson from the rotation earlier in the season, so there was precedent for demoting Chacon. But Sampson had pitched appreciably worse as a starter than Chacon, and without any demonstrably better starters on the pitching staff or in the farm system, I can understand how Chacon thought that his demotion was at least premature under the circumstances.

It’s not particularly surprising that first-year Stros GM Ed Wade flew off the handle, either. His attempt to retool the Stros into a playoff contender on the fly is looking more like an unmitigated disaster by the day. Wade made four major off-season acquisitions and none of them have panned out. CF Michael Bourn (18 RCAA/.305 OBA/.331 SLG/.636 OPS) has been one of the worst hitters in the National League among regular players this season.  Expensive 2B Kaz Matsui (-6 RCAA/.336 OBA/.342 SLG/.678 OPS) is continuing his legacy of never playing more than 114 games in any one of his five seasons in Major League Baseball, while SS Miguel Tejada (-4 RCAA/.329 OBA/.459 SLG/.789 OPS) has continued the decline in production that began three seasons ago in Baltimore. Even the barely above-average performance of closer Jose Valverde (2 RSAA/4.34 ERA) has paled in comparison to that of the closer that Wade ran off, Brad Lidge (12 RSAA/0.87 ERA). Add in the fact that the Stros’ hitters — other than slugger Lance Berkman — have generated an astounding 93 fewer runs this season than an average National League team would have created using the same number of outs as the Stros’ hitters have used and it’s easy to understand how Wade is feeling the heat these days.

Ironically, acquiring Chacon was not one of Wade’s particularly bad deals from this past off-season. Inasmuch as Chacon accepted a below-average MLB salary ($2 million) for a shot at earning a spot in the Stros’ rotation and performed at just below National League-average for the season to date, Wade certainly didn’t overpay for that performance.

But the reality is that Wade and the Stros have been selling snake oil this season, and the suckers are starting to thin out. This Stros club is a seriously bad baseball team and it doesn’t have the Craig Biggio Farewell Tour to distract the paying public from the club’s glaring inadequacies. As noted in this most recent season review, it’s well past time for Stros management to quit attempting to patch together a winner from year-to-year. Now is the time to focus on development of a rebuilding plan that has a better chance of re-creating the sustained success that the club enjoyed during the Biggio-Bagwell era.

Rebuilding is not as snazzy as selling snake oil, but it’s honest and much less likely to provoke the frustrations that boiled over in the Stros clubhouse on Wednesday.

Stros 2008 Season Review, Part Two

Lance berkman 060908 Through 40% of the season, the Stros’ record is precisely what you would expect from a club that struggles to maintain National League average performance — 32-32, including 15-16 in the second fifth of the season. That’s about the same as the first fifth of the season and a bit better than my pre-season forecast. The Stros are in 4th place in the National League Central, 8 games behind the Cubs (40-24) and only 1.5 games out of last place in the division. Any early-season hope that this club could contend for a playoff spot is now a pipe dream.

Frankly, there is little reason to be optimistic about the Stros’ prospects for the remainder of the season. While the pitching staff has performed better than expected and is a dramatic improvement over last season’s staff at a comparable stage of the season, the club’s overall hitting — outside of Lance Berkman’s Bonds-like performance (47 RCAA/.458 OBA/.723 SLG/1.181 OPS) — has been abysmal. The Stros’ hitters rank 12th out of the 16 National League clubs in runs created against average (-23 RCAA) and only one hitter other than Berkman is creating more runs than an average National League-hitter would produce using the same number of outs. Moreover, two regular Stros players — CF Michael Bourn (-16 RCAA/.281 OBA/.309 SLG/.590 OPS) and recently-demoted C JR Towles (-13 RCAA/.270 OBA/.282 SLG/.552 OPS) — are among the least productive hitters in the National League. LF Carlos Lee (-5 RCAA/.301 OBA/.469 SLG/.770 OPS) is showing why he is one of the most overpaid players in Major League Baseball, while the declining SS Miguel Tejada (-1 RCAA/.335 OBA/.466 SLG/.801 OPS) has cooled considerably after a hot start. As noted in the first season review, Bourn, Towles and Hunter Pence (-2 RCAA/.339 OBA/.478 SLG/.817 OPS) have all showed signs of their lack of Triple-A seasoning, while neither 3B Ty Wigginton (2 RCAA/.368 OBA/.448 SLG/.817 OPS) nor 2B Kaz Matsui (-3 RCAA/.353 OBA/.352 SLG/.705 OPS) are difference makers. Where would this bunch be without Berkman?

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And you thought the Mitchell Report was ugly?

BALCO_GrayTee_Product So, the controversy over the Mitchell Commission Report has pretty much died down, right? Well, it looks as if another potential public relations nightmare is brewing for Major League Baseball:

Tucked away inside the United States attorney’s office in the Northern District of California are documents that link more than 100 major league baseball players to positive tests for steroids conducted in 2003.

The test results were meant to be anonymous, and a battle over access to them has wound its way through the federal court system. The players union has tried to protect its members by arguing that the government illegally obtained the information.

But now, more than four years after federal agents seized the test results as part of the investigation into the drug-distribution activities of the Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative, the government appears close to prevailing in the legal battle, which could set off another round of federal drug investigations.

According to a lawyer who spoke on condition of anonymity because the government’s plans are supposed to remain confidential, federal authorities will seek to question each of the 104 players about where and how they obtained the substance detected in their urine samples.

The authorities then intend to distribute the information they receive to federal prosecutors around the country.

Distributors, not users, have been the focus of the government’s investigations into performance-enhancing drugs ever since the authorities began seriously looking into the issue in 2002. But the 104 players would be asked to provide testimony — to federal agents or before grand juries — to lead investigators to the distributors. The players’ identities could become public if their testimony is used in government documents to obtain search warrants or to charge individuals. The players could also be called as witnesses at trials.

Regardless of how many of the 104 names eventually become public, the notion of simultaneous drug investigations being conducted by various federal attorney’s offices around the country would be a significant setback to Major League Baseball, which has struggled to get control of the issues related to performance-enhancing drugs. [.  .  .]

Read the entire article. The MLB Players Association has to be kicking itself for not insisting on the destruction of the "anonymous" drug tests, which were conducted during the 2003 season. Under public pressure to agree to some regulation of performance-enhancing drugs, the Players Association had agreed to the 2003 testing as a "survey" under which all players would be tested one time and 240 players would be randomly tested a second time with neither group being under any threat of punishment. Subsequently, discovery in connection with the investigation into the Balco case in Northern California transcended the deal between Major League Baseball and the Players Association, so now it appears that there is a good chance that a master list of all players who tested positive during the 2003 testing may well become public information. The list won’t be released tomorrow or even next week, so most of the mainstream media will continue to focus on such sideshows as the Mindy McCready affair. But you can bet that Major League Baseball and the Players Association can hear the clock ticking on this one.

Stros 2008 Season Review, Part One

LanceBerkman_050608Despite a weekend sweep of the division-rival Brewers (16-16) and another stirring comeback victory over the Nationals (14-19), the Stros’ record (17-16) reflects their performance through the first fifth of the 2008 season — an average National League ballclub.

Collectively, the Stros are generating one less run through 33 games than a National League-average club would have generated in the same number of games (RCAA — that’s 9th among the 16 National League clubs) and the Stros’ pitching staff has collectively given up nine more runs than a National League-average pitching staff would have given up (RSAA — that’s 10th in the National League). Thus, the 2008 Stros have essentially the same record and collective statistics as the disastrous 2007 club had at roughly the same stage of the season.

Nevertheless, there is a reasonable basis for thinking that the 2008 club will turn out somewhat better over the course of the season than the 2007 edition (73-89). SS Miguel Tejada (12 RCAA/.379 OBA/.565 SLG/.944 OPS) appears to be revived by his new surroundings and has been much better than predicted, both offensively and defensively. Although still below National League-average, the Stros’ pitching staff can look forward to ace Roy Oswalt (-7 RSAA/5.57 ERA) improving steadily over the balance of the season after an uncharacteristically bad start (after going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his first three starts, Oswalt is 3-0 with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts), that second-best starter Wandy Rodriguez (5 RSAA/2.31 ERA) will eventually return from a stint on the disabled list, and that the relief corps will continue its recent improvement after a horrid start that was primarily responsible for the club’s atrocious 6-14 record after the first 20 games of the season. Likewise, an increase in offensive productivity is likely as RF Hunter Pence (-5/.288/.432/.720) and LF Carlos Lee (5/.333/.541/.874) rebound from slow starts and regular 3B Ty Wigginton (-2/.275/.333/.608) returns after missing 22 games with a broken thumb. Finally, the Stros’ prospects this season are buoyed by 1B Lance Berkman’s (22/.428/.731/1.159) strong rebound from a so-so 2007 season (at least by his standards) as he returns to his customary status as one of the top sluggers in the National League. Berkman went nuts at the plate again on Tuesday night against the Nationals, going 5 for 5 for the first time in his career and stealing two more bases, making him 6 for 7 on steal attempts this season.

However, that’s not to suggest that there aren’t warning signs that could lead this club to swoon in the same manner as the 2007 club did (26 losses in 40 games) during the second quarter of last season. Contrary to the mainstream media’s suggestion that the Stros are a good hitting team, no Stros hitters are producing above National League-average except for Berkman, Tejeda and Lee, and Lee is not producing anywhere near the rate he needs to in order to make up for all the runs he gives away with his laggard defensive play. Meanwhile, young players Pence, CF Michael Bourn (-5/.275/.315/.590) and C J.R. Towles (-3/.318/.386/.703) are all showing signs of their lack of AAA seasoning. Bourn has yet to learn that his future as a Major Leaguer is in being a line drive/ground ball hitter, while Pence is having to deal for the first time with the reality that he will get few meaty fastballs from NL pitchers unless or until he learns to lay off breaking pitches thrown outside the strike zone. On the pitching side, the starting rotation is seemingly on the brink of disaster most of the time (Chris Sampson has a -11 RSAA/7.96 ERA so far this season!), which has led to Manager Cecil Cooper’s quick hook and the resulting overuse of the relievers. Although they have been better over the past 20 or so games, those relievers are at high risk of reverting to their early season mediocrity as the innings pile up.

Consequently, through a fifth of the 2008 season, there still is not much evidence that the Stros can contend for a NL playoff spot. So long as they can avoid injuries to key players, the club might be able to achieve a .500 record, which would be 7 games better than my pre-season over/under prediction of 75 wins. However, the club’s pitching is simply too inconsistent to generate a sustained period of generating more wins than losses, which is necessary at some point in any season to propel a club into playoff contention. Look for the Cubs (19-14; 31 RCAA/24 RSAA) to take control of the NL Central as the season wears on, although the Cardinals (22-12; 28 RCAA/13 RSAA) have been the surprise of the division so far. I just don’t think the Cards will keep it up.

By the way, the 2008 season has brought us another solid source of information on the Stros. Zachary Levine — who takes a refreshingly objective approach to baseball analysis — has quickly become the most insightful Houston Chronicle reporter on the Stros. Along with Lisa Gray’s insightful Stros blog and Alyson Footer’s articles at Astros.com, Levine’s reports on the Stros provide solid sources for keeping up with the Stros on daily basis.

After finishing up against the Nats this week, the Stros make a West Coast swing against the Dodgers (18-14) and the Giants (14-19) before returning to Texas to play the Rangers (13-20) in the first inter-league games of the season. Then, it’s back home later this month to play the Cubs and Phillies (19-14) before going back on the road to finish May against the Cardinals and Brewers.

The 2008 season statistics for the Stros are below (through 33 games), courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

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Valuing the Stros

Drayton McLane 041907 The Stros are not worth squat on the playing field this season, but the club continues to be among the dozen most valuable franchises in Major League Baseball.

Forbes’ annual valuation of MLB franchises is out and the Stros come in at a respectable 12th among the 30 MLB franchises, down one slot from last year. Forbes thinks that the Stros ($463 million valuation) are doing about as well financially as they can do in this market. A list of the values and operating income for all 30 franchises is here.

Interestingly, although the Yankees have by far the most valuable franchise in MLB, they were dead last among the 30 MLB franchises in operating income at a negative $47 million. The World Champion Boston Red Sox were 29th in operating income at a negative $19 million, although the club’s valuation of $816 million is behind only the Yankees ($1.306 billion) and the Mets ($824 million).

This post from last fall noted Forbes‘ most recent valuation of the National League Football franchise, which continue to be much more valuable than the MLB franchises. The least valuable of the 32 NFL franchises (the Vikings at $782 million) would be the fourth most valuable MLB club.