The Stros 2008 season has been over for over a week now, so it’s time for my final review of the 2008 season (prior 2008 season reviews are here) and my grading of the Stros players for the 2008 seaons (my grading of the Stros from the 2007 season is here and from the 2006 season is here).

Although the Stros (86-75) played surprisingly well over the final 40% of the season (42-24, including a stellar 22-11 mark over the final 20% of the seaons), the club failed to qualify for the playoffs for the third straight season since their only World Series appearance in 2005. However, the Stros did handily beat my pre-season over/under prediction of 75 wins, so there is little question that the club out-performed most expectations for the season.

The Stros started out the final fifth of the season with a 16-3 run that pulled the club to within 2.5 games on September 13th of tying the Brewers for the lead in the National League Wild-Card playoff spot.

However, we in Houston recall all too vividly what happened during the morning of Saturday, September 13th –  Hurricane Ike roared through the Houston metro area, leaving in its wake multi-billions of dollars in damages and millions of people without power.

The Stros were supposed to be playing a series against the Cubs at Minute Maid Park over that weekend, but the games simply were not playable in Houston under the circumstances. Frankly, the entire Cubs series should have been postponed and the Stros should have been told to prepare for their next series starting the following Tuesday against the Marlins in Miami.

However, despite the catastrophic damage to the Houston area from Hurricane Ike, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig insisted that as many of the Stros-Cub games be played as soon as possible.

That was a bad decision, but it was made even worse when Selig inexplicably rejected the use of perfectly acceptable baseball stadiums in close-by Round Rock, Corpus Christi and Arlington to play the games.

To compound that poor judgment, Selig then yanked the Stros players and coaches out of Houston on the afternoon of Sunday, September 14th — at a time when virtually all of their families were adjusting to living without power — to play the first of two of those games in that postponed Cubs series that night in Milwaukee, of all places.

Not surprisingly, the exhausted Stros were no-hit that night and could muster just one hit in the following night’s game.

With their concentration shattered by understandable concern for their families back in Houston, the Stros proceeded to get swept by the Marlins in the following series, which pretty well ended any chance that the Stros had to make a final push for the Wild-Card playoff spot.

And that raises a point that much of the local mainstream media misinterpreted throughout the latter part of the Stros’ 2008 season — despite their good play over the final 40% of the season, the Stros never really had much of a shot at making the playoffs.

Even on that fateful September 13th, when they pulled within 2.5 games of a tie for the lead in the race for the Wild-Card spot, the Stros had only a 12% chance of making the playoffs and that was the best odds for making the playoffs that they attained over the final 40% of the season.

The reason that the Stros’ odds were so low was because of the number of teams with whom they were competing.

The Brewers, the Mets and the Phillies all had better records than the Stros at that point, so the chances were always relatively remote that both the Brewers and either the Mets or Phillies (whichever of them did not win the NL East) would crater enough down the stretch to allow the Stros to eke into the Wild Card spot.

Nevertheless, how did the Stros win so many games during the final 40% of the season after basically stinking it up through the first 60% (44-51)?

As noted earlier, 1B Lance Berkman (58 RCAA/.420 OBA/.567 SLG/.986) carried the club from a hitting standpoint throughout the first 50% of the season, then LF Carlos Lee (30 RCAA/.368 OBA/.569 SLG/.937 OPS) had the best run of his career just before and after the All-Star break until his season-ending injury at the 115 game mark.

Then, seemingly out of nowhere, 3B Ty Wigginton (10 RCAA/.350 OBA/.526 SLG/.876 OPS) picked up the slack after Lee’s injury and had the best hitting streak of his career until he too went on the shelf with a leg injury during the first part of the final month of the season.

At that point, under-performing RF Hunter Pence (-7  RCAA/.318  OBA/.466 SLG/.783 OPS) finally got untracked and had his best run of the season (10 RCAA in the final 33 games of the season), which allowed his season-ending numbers to improve from among the worst in the league for regular players through 80% of the season.

Moreover, oft-injured 2B Kaz Matsui (6 RCAA/.354 OBA/.427 SLG/.781 OPS) was generally productive when when not on the disabled list and Berkman remained solid down the stretch, although he never caught the same fire during the final 40% of the season that he displayed through the first 60% of the season.

Put these performances together and they were enough to push a poor-hitting Stros club overall (-46 RCAA, 12th among the 16 National League teams) to generate enough offense to win almost two-thirds of their final 66 games played.

But as was the case all season, the real story of this Stros’ 2008 season was the performance of the pitching staff.

Viewed before the season as one of the weakest pitching staffs in Stros history, the Stros staff this season ended up being precisely National League average (0 RSAA), which was 7th among the 16 National League teams. Although Brandon Backe (-31 RSAA/6.05 ERA) was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the National League this season, no other Stros pitcher who remained on the staff at the end of the season was worse than slightly below National League-average.

Moreover, staff ace Roy Oswalt (20 RSAA/– who struggled at a merely National League-average performance level through the first 40% of the season, came back to pitch as well as any National League pitcher over the final 60% of the season (27 RSAA from June 10th forward).

Add in a career-best performance by Wandy Rodriguez (13 RSAA/3.54 ERA) and excellent performances by pick-ups Randy Wolf ( ) and LaTroy Hawkins ( ) over the final 40% of the season, as well as a consistently solid bullpen performance throughout the season, and the Stros staff improved dramatically over the 2007 staff’s abysmal performance (-79 RSAA) and provided the foundation of the Stros’ better-than-expected record this season.

In retrospect, apart from the losing streak after Hurricane Ike, the Stros really blew their chance for a playoff spot this season during the period from May 27th through June 22nd when the club sandwiched disastrous 9 and 6-game road trips around a poor 9-game homestand, going 6-18 over that period. Other than that stretch, this Stros club was a pretty darn consistent club. The following chart breaks down the Stros season by homestands and road trips:

Despite that consistency, the Stros’ better-than-expected record masked the fact that the Stros were the weakest of the teams in the National League that finished with more wins than losses.

As I’ve noted many times in my review on the Stros, aggregate RCAA and RSAA numbers of each club provide a simple but revealing reflection of whether a team is likely to be able to contend for a playoff spot over the course of the long MLB season.

A club’s RCAA reflects how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s hitters generate than a National League-average club and RSAA measures how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s pitching staff saves than a National League-average club (an exactly National League-average club’s score is zero). Accordingly, a club’s combined RCAA/RSAA number shows how many more (or fewer) runs the club’s hitters have generated and the club’s pitchers have saved in comparison to a National League-average club.

The following are the aggregate RCAA/RSAA of the National League clubs that won more games than they lost during the 2008 season:

Team       W    L   RCAA  RSAA  RCAA/RSAA

Cubs         97&#
160;  64    81       98         179

Phillies     92    70    46       87         133

Brewers    90   72     33       57           90

Mets         89   73     79       41          120

Stros         86   75    -46        0           -46

Cardinals   86   76    113       -4          109

Marlins      84   77      62       -45          17

Dodgers    84   78      46         41          87

Dbacks      82   80     -71        95           24

Thus, the Stros were the only team in the National League that won more games than they lost in 2008 that had a negative RCAA/RSAA. Indeed, several teams with losing records — including the 72-90 Braves — had an RCAA/RSAA (-16) that was considerably better than the Stros.

Now, as the above chart reflects, RCAA/RSAA is not a dispositive indicator of how a club will finish in the standings or even how many wins and losses that a club will have. But it’s unusual for a club with a negative RCAA/RSAA to win more games than it loses, and it’s even more unusual when such a club wins 11 more games than it loses. That indicates that more than a bit of good luck was involved in the Stros’ record this season. And good luck is not the main element around which good MLB teams are built.

One of the main problems with the Stros are that they are getting old. The Stros have only two players under 30 in their regular lineup— Pence in right field, and the platoon of Michael Bourn and Reggie Abercrombie in center. By the team-age calculations of Baseball-Reference, the Stros’ hitters are a collective 31.1 years old, which is almost a full year older than any other National League club. That is not particularly comforting when you consider that the Stros’ RCAA of -46 ranked 12th among the 16 National League teams.

Likewise, the Stros are not much younger on the pitching side. The pitchers average 30.7 years, which is tied with the Phillies for the NL’s oldest staff. Inasmuch as the Stros are currently rebuilding one of the worst farm systems in the National League, a 2009 team built essentially on an aging 2008 roster is not likely to generate more wins than the 2008 unit.

Thus, it would be a mistake to think that the Stros performance this season means that they are legitimate playoff contenders for the 2009 season. The club has huge holes at three positions (catcher, shortstop and centerfield), a question mark at another (second base) and a pitching staff that is still only National League-average despite its better-than-expected performance this past season.

So, Stros management has a lot of work to do this off-season to put the club in a position to contend in 2009 and it’s not at all clear at this point that management is inclined to make the moves necessary to accomplish that goal. If the Stros make only minor moves this off-season, I do not think it’s likely that they will be able to improve on this season’s performance and contend for a playoff spot in 2009.

The following is my report card for each of the Stros this season. Full season statistics follow the report card and the Stros’ 40-man roster is here with a hyperlink to each player’s statistics and other information:

The A’s

Lance Berkman — A+ (58 RCAA/.420 OBA/.567 SLG/.986): Berkman’s 2008 season was one of the best in Stros history.

Berkman’s 58 RCAA was the 3rd highest in the National League this season and tenth best in Stros history:

Berkman now has four of the top ten RCAA seasons in Stros history, second only to Jeff Bagwell’s five:

Berkman trails only Bagwell in career RCAA among Stros players and no one else is even close to those two:

In fact, Berkman is now 7th in career RCAA among active National League players and is a good bet to move up to 3rd within a season or two:

In addition, Berkman was rated the 4th best defensive first baseman in Major League Baseball according to John Dewan’s The Fielding Bible. And he stole 18 bases in 22 tries, to boot.

With another five or so solid seasons, Berkman will join Bagwell and Craig Biggio, and Roy Oswalt as one of only four homegrown Stros players who have a legitimate shot at being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Berkman is the best current Stros field position player by far.

Carlos Lee — A  30 RCAA/.368 OBA/.5
69 SLG/.937 OPS): Lee was on his way to the best season of his career when an errant pitch broke a bone in his hand during the 115th game of the season and ended his season prematurely. He started slowly, but really caught fire after the All-Star break and was carrying the club offensively when he was injured. Moreover, Dewan’s Fielding Bible scored Lee’s usually poor defense as the best of his career (16th best in MLB, just a tad below MLB-average). If only Lee could learn how to take a walk, he would have the potential to put together a 50+ RCAA season. Unfortunately, it’s not likely that he will develop that ability this late in his career.

Geoff Geary — A (13 RSAA/2.53 ERA): Originally thought to be a throw-in in regard to the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn trade, Geary ended up preventing that trade from being a disaster.

Geary battled through a series of nagging injuries to be the Stros most consistent pitcher this season. Geary’s stat line for the season (13 RSAA/2.53 ERA/64 IP/45 H/28 BB/45 K/3 HR’s) is not far off Lidge’s (19 RSAA/1.95 ERA/69.1 IP/50 H/35 BB/92 K/2 HR’s), who is the NL’s Comeback Player of the Year.

The Phillies are committed to pay Lidge $37.5 million over the next three seasons with a $12.5 million club option in 2012. The Stros paid Geary $1.125 million in 2008 and will only have to offer him arbitration in order to keep him around for 2009. Remember that when you hear the mainstream media pundits describing the Lidge-for-Bourn deal as a disaster for the Stros.

Roy Oswalt — A- (20 RSAA/3/54 ERA):  It says much about Roy O’s excellence that this was his worst MLB season and he still generated an A- for the season.

As mentioned above, he struggled with nagging injuries through the first 40% of the season, but then kicked it into gear in the final 60% to be one of the most effective pitchers in the National League. He finished with over 200 innings for the fifth straight season and for the sixth time in his eight-year MLB career.

As with Berkman, Roy O’s excellence is often taken for granted. Even in this worst season of his masterful career, Roy O tied for 11th in RSAA in the National League:

Roy O is now 6th in career RSAA among active NL players:

Moreover, Oswalt is tied for 6th in the history of Major League Baseball in career RSAA generated in the NL by the age of 30:

Not bad company, eh? Finally, Roy O has saved more runs than any pitcher in the history of the Stros franchise:

As with Berkman, with another five or so solid seasons, Roy O is a legitimate homegrown Hall of Fame candidate. He is one the few Stros who is truly special to watch compete.

The B’s

Ty Wigginton — B+ (10 RCAA/.350 OBA/.526 SLG/.876 OPS):  The 30-year old Wigginton had the best season of his career and might have scored an "A" if injuries hadn’t caused him to miss about 45 games (on the other hand, I guess he could have a "C" or a "D", too). Inasmuch as Wig is not stellar in the field (Dewar rates him 23rd in fielding among MLB third basemen), the question is whether his performance this season is indicative that his next few seasons will produce more than his career numbers (0 RCAA/.330 OBA/.460 SLG/.790 OBP)? If not, then Wig should be considered prime trade bait.

Wandy Rodriguez — B+ (13 RSAA/3.54 ERA): Rodriguez keeps improving with age as this is his second straight season of notable improvement over his first two seasons in which he was one of the worst starters in the National League. However, Rodriguez will be 30 years old next season, only pitched 137 innings because of injuries this season and still has never pitched over 184 innings during a season in his career. He probably will never be better than a back-end rotation guy, although he may develop into a decent third option in a rotation. That would appear to be his ceiling, though.

LaTroy Hawkins — B+ (9 RSAA/0.43 ERA): After looking washed-up with the Yankees during the first two-thirds of the season, the Stros picked up Hawkins off the scrap heap and he proceeded to allow just 1 earned run in 24 innings while striking out 25 and walking only 5. He will be offered a contract for 2009, but he will be 36, so it will become harder for him to maintain the lightning the Stros found in his bottle during the last third of 2008.

Randy Wolf — B+ (7 RSAA/3.57  ERA): Another of Stros GM Ed Wade’s salvage projects, Wolf pitched well above National League-average in the 70 innings that he gave the Stros after coming over from the Padres, where he basically stunk up the joint (-11 RSAA/4.74 ERA in 120 innings). As with Hawkins, Wolf’s performance means that the Stros will pursue a contract with him in the off-season, but is a barely above National League-average starter worth the $15 million or so over three seasons that will likely be required to sign him? I have my doubts.

Mark  Loretta — B (-4 RCAA/.350 OBA/.383 SLG/.733): Loretta improved from a D last season primarily because the Stros used him better — i.e., as a true utilityman rather than as a replacement starter. As a result, in 250 AB’s, Loretta had just 10 fewer extra-base hits this season than he had in over 460 AB’s last season. Loretta played well defensively at all of the infield positions, scoring at least MLB-average at each position except for 2B, where he was slightly below-average.

Jose Valverde — B (8 RSAA/3.38 ERA): Interestingly, Valverde’s season stats were almost the same as Brad Lidge’s for the 2007 season with the Stros that got Lidge run out of town. Valverde is currently a lot cheaper than Lidge, but probably not for long. Beware of overpaying for closers.

Brian Moehler — B (-3 RSAA/4.56 ERA): The 36 year-old journeyman was little short of remarkable for the Stros in 2008, swallowing 150 innings at just a tad below National League-average performanc
e level. A consummate pro, he will compete for a back-end rotation or long relief job next season. Just don’t be surprised if he is nowhere near as effective as he was this season.

Chris Sampson — B (6 RSAA/4.12 ERA): Sampson had an interesting season. Through 56 innings of being starter, he was pretty bad (-6 RCAA/5.56 ERA). Then, he pitched 61 innings out of the bullpen and was quite good (12 RSAA). Alas, he had elbow surgery after the season and is iffy to be ready by spring training.

Tim Byrdak — B (3 RSAA/3.90 ERA): Another of the pleasant surprises in the Stros 2008 bullpen, the 34-year old veteran pitched just above National League-average over 55 innings this season. Brydak has effectively replaced Trevor Miller as the prime LOOGY on the Stros staff ("LOOGY" means Lefty One Out GuY – a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations).

Doug Brocail — B (4 RSAA/3.93 ERA): Brocail, who is the quintessential battler, pitched reasonably well until Manager Cecil Cooper inexplicably overworked the 41 year-old, at which point he developed shoulder problems that limited his effectiveness. The Stros declined an option on Brocail for the 2009 season because of injury concerns, but are talking with him about coming back next season, anyway.

The C’s

Kaz Matsui — C (6 RCAA/.354 OBA/.427 SLG/.781): Matsui was the Stros best leadoff man when he was playing. The problem was that he wasn’t playing enough (only 96 games due to assorted injuries). Also, Dewar’s Fielding Bible rated his defense as dramatically worse than the previous season at Colorado (from 6th best in MLB to 28th). He is signed for two more seasons at $5 mi per season, so he isn’t going anywhere. Perhaps Stros management should invest in a better masseuse?

Wesley Wright — C (-4 RSAA/5.01 ERA): A Rule 5 pickup from the Dodgers, the 23 year-old Wright acquitted himself reasonably well as sort of a backup LOOGY (55 IP). Wright needs more seasoning and it will be interesting to see how the Stros go about getting it for him. It’s not as if the club has an over-abundance of pitchers of this age with Major League potential.

Hunter Pence — C- (-7 RCAA/.318 OBA/.466 SLG/.783 OPS): Pence was on course for a D or even an F through 80% of the season when his season-to-date stats were among the worst of any regular National League players (-17 RCAA/.300 OBA/.435 SLG/.735).

But Pence redeemed himself somewhat during the final 20% of the season when he carried the club for about 20 games after Wigginton’s injury and improved his season statistics to just below National League-average.

Pence’s defense in RF was only average — The Fielding Bible rates him 16th in MLB, primarily because of his good arm. However, Pence’s defense in centerfield during 2007 was not rated materially worse than his defense in right field this season. Moreover, Pence’s defensive rating in both seasons were about the same as CF Michael Bourn’s fielding rating this season.

So, why again are the Stros enduring Bourn in centerfield?

The D’s

Geoff Blum — D (-13 RCAA/.287 OBA/.418 SLG/.705 OPS): Blum was useful in spots (14 HR’s), but it’s hard to be an average utilityman with an on-base average of .287 (National League-average is .340). He generally did a good job defensively — The Fielding Bible rated his defense at 3B to be 11th best in MLB.

Darin Erstad — D (-12 RCAA/.309 OBA/.363 SLG/.672 OPS): As with Blum, it’s hard to be an average utilityman with a .672 OPS (National League-average is .771). Erstad performed at a slightly above MLB-average level defensively at the outfield positions and first base.

The F’s

Brad Ausmus — F (-14 /RCAA/.303 OBA/.296 SLG/.600 OPS): Mercifully for everyone except for his adoring female fans, the Brad Ausmus era is over in Houston.

Ausmus and his masterful agent have pulled one of the greatest con jobs in MLB history in persuading MLB teams to pay him to play baseball for 15 seasons. His career stat line (-277 RCAA/.325 OBA/.344 SLG/.669 OPS) reflects that he was not close to being an average National League hitter (0 RCAA/.342 OBA/432 SLG/.774 OPS).

Moreover, although he has always blocked pitches well, his ability to throw out baserunners at an effective rate was essentially gone by the 2004 season. The Stros inexplicably paid him to hang around for another four seasons anyway.

RCAA is an excellent measure of the awfulness of Ausmus. His career -250 RCAA — which means that Ausmus generated 250 fewer runs than a merely average National League hitter would have created using the same number of outs over 15 seasons as Ausmus — is second worst among active National League players:

Moreover, Ausmus holds the Stros record for the worst RCAA in any one season and has four of the worst ten such seasons in Stros history:

Not surprisingly, Ausmus has a firm hold on the worst career RCAA of any Stros player:

Given the subjective blather that the mainstream media served up around the time that Ausmus played his last game for the Stros, it’s questionable whether the utter ineffectiveness of Ausmus’ long tenure with the club will ever be properly analyzed in those annals. But part of his legacy in Houston is certainly that Stros fans do not have the expectation of even an average player at the catcher position. I guess that makes management’s job a bit easier.

J.R. Towles — F (-12 RCAA/.250 OBA/.253 SLG/.503 OPS): That’s a tough grade for Towles, who should not have been jumped from AA to MLB after a small sample size of success in MLB at the end of the 2007 season. He actually played reasonably well in AAA, where he should have been at the start of the season. But when Ausmus is your alternative at catcher, the Stros were dreaming that Towles might work out. Dreams rarely become reality in MLB.

Humberto Quintero — F (-14 RCAA/.271 OBA/.304 SLG/.575 OPS): Quintero, Ausmus and Towles caught all of the Stros games this se
ason. If you aggregate their negative RCAA (-14 + -14 + -12 = -40), the Stros catching position generated the worst RCAA of any regular position in the National League this season. In fact, the Stros have four of the top 10 worst RCAA’s for the 2008 season (the catching position, Tejada, Bourn and Jose Castillo, although Castillo generated most of his negative RCAA with the Giants before coming to the Stros late in the season):

Miguel Tejeda — F (-26 RCAA/.314 OBA/.415 SLG/.729 OBA). Tejada was one of the worst hitting National League regular players during the 2008 season. I don’t think that’s what Drayton McLane and GM Wade had in mind when they agreed to pay Tejada $26 million over the final two years of his contract, the final of which is next season. Tejada did improve his defense markedly, going from the 23rd-ranked MLB shortstop in 2007 to 9th-ranked in 2008.

Michael Bourn — F (-29/.299 OBA/.313 SLG/.613 OPS): Bourn was terrible this season, arguably the worst-hitting regular player in the National League (only the Stros’ decision to platoon Abercrombie with Bourn in CF saved Bourn from being the outright leader in worst RCAA). Moreover, Bourn’s defense — which was supposedly his strength — turned out to be rather pedestrian (15th ranking among MLB centerfielders). Thus, as noted above, there is a real question as to whether the Stros shouldn’t just can the Bourn experiment, put Pence back in CF and go out an get a true run producer to play right-field. It looks as if Bourn is Willy Taveras-lite, which is a scary thought.

Brandon Backe — F (-31 RSAA/6.05 ERA): Backe had the worst RSAA of any starting pitcher in the National League in 2008:

In my 2007 preview of the Stros season, I wrote the following about Backe:

A fiery personality and a couple of good playoff performances three years ago misleads some addled observers to believe that Backe is a legitimate number two starter. However, he has made just 13 starts over the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. In those 13 starts, he struck out 30 and walked 29. Backe’s career -15 RSAA is not the stuff of a frontline National League starting pitcher.

Backe may get one more chance with the Stros solely because this was his first season back from Tommy John surgery. However, after 166 innings of ineffectual pitching this season, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Backe is not a good enough pitcher to start regularly in MLB. He may still find a Chris Sampson-type relief role somewhere, but it won’t be as a starter.

The 2008 season statistics for the Stros are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros’ 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics: